I don't have special insights into LCTITAN. I blog and you'll see I do make mistakes like RAPID (but RAPID is tiny). When LCTITAN went to 1.5+, iirc, it was around 5% +/- of my portfolio if not mistaken (going by memory here, which can be hazy) and that is considered big in my portfolio as I am very highly diversified. But I did take profits as price went up as I said I would. I kept more than half for higher prices to let go but price didn't accomodate me, before it crashes.

But fwiw, when I include the past dividends, my average cost price (after reducing by dividends) is 1.14. Today closed at 1.15, so, I no longer lose any monies here. It helps that when a stock price is volatile, cyclical, adopt some buying and selling at logical price ranges - that helps to lower your average cost progressively. But it requires good chart readings. In my previous life (over a decade ago), I was a chart based swing trader but not very good because of overtrading. Today, I do much better as a dividend investor, focusing on fundamentals and incorporating chart trading in my entries and exits, but the number 1 factor is position sizing. This gives a much more stable result.

6 days ago, I wrote this ... I shared I plan to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but bite less ... I followed my plan. I bite LCTITAN at 1.10 and I bite "less". Now, LCTITAN is 3% of my portfolio. That's a neutral position for me. Not feeling greedy nor fearful, just neutral. And I have many other stocks in my highly diversified portfolio.

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Strong price drop from 1.57 swing high down to 1.15 close over short time (1+ months). Significant fear there.
Originally planned to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but in view of strong price drop, will only bite small there.
Odds to make new all time lows below 0.975 is now significant - say 20%-30% chance. We like fear opportunities, but the question is always - where is that point of maximum fear? So many levels to choose from.

In the scenario where it makes new all time low, patience is required for cyclical stock. It could take years. Meanwhile EPF monies earn consistently 5%-7% per annum returns, so, why rush? If 3 years, your EPF earns 20% profit already. If you own LCTITAN, you are betting that it will rebound faster but more likely (in view of downtrend) to lose out to EPF.

Always play with the odds. Better to not add to your losers, but if must add, add small and be prepared to be underwater for up to years if need be.

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@cheated, what an interesting handle name. If you click on my name, follow carefully my comments in its entirety (rather than cherry picking), then, you'll know that I am very highly diversified. I have at least 33 holdings where the DY is 4% or higher. My portfolio DY is currently around 5.4% (market price basis), so, I won't get very large % gains, but like an FD balance, each day, your FD is just going to keep rising and rising isn't it?

My LCTITAN is small. When it crossed to around 1.5 or so recently, I sold nearly half of my holdings. So, I just bought some at 1.1 today. Whilst my core holdings are long term dividend yields, I also sometimes do trading like this for LCTITAN because it's a cyclical stock. More often than not, price tends to mean revert. Sometimes, strong trends emerges and that's when selling loses out profits.

Neither is necessarily better styles, but for my own risk appetite, I prefer to buy when it's low and start taking profits slowly when it starts to beat my gain expectations and depending (it's judgement), either accelerate the selling as price goes higher or slow down the selling as price goes higher. Here, I'm only half right with LCTITAN as after hitting 1.5, I didn't expect it to fall so much, else I would have sold more above 1.5.

But that sort of activity does smoothen my portfolio results but it's not uncommon for my portfolio, for majority of months, to keep making new highs, largely due to a combination of recent market moves up and the high dividend yield (and also buying when price is low and also buying above average quality stocks).

Managed to trim a little bit, but still my Top 15% holdings by market value. Dividend yield on cost is 8.3%. Can hold for a long time if not look at markets and just collect dividends. Of course, sitting on winners and do nothing is often the right strategy unless it is a bear market or clearly sideways market.

Fuiyoh ... biggest gain in my portfolio today. Feeling blessed and thankful ...

I'm still waiting for the right entry price for speculative trading purposes.
Rohit won't leave. He's not one to give up with this setback. Chartwise, it's clear that he has turn around the company, halted the massive downtrend caused by previous CEOs.

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/rapid.html.

My "gambling" approach looks like the correct approach so far (given the huge itch to scratch back then in Jan).
Close eye, throw the dice one time and one-time only.
Then pretend market is closed for 1 year.
The outcome is going to be binary.
Either this stock kaputs, or it recovers.

Averaging down below entry of RM1.6x is not rational.
The price movement is not natural.
Any entry is basically gambling and not investing.

When one has made a mistake in entry, the best course of action is to admit one's mistake, and not be stubborn.
Stubborn is when you keep averaging down, to not admit one's mistakes.
Instead, leave it alone. As price falls, the loss become smaller and smaller naturally. And as we are well diversified, the rising KLCI index brings up a lot of stocks, causing my portfolio to still make new all time highs quite a few times since entering RAPID. RAPID % loss is approaching 50% paper loss but it didn't stop the portfolio from making new all time highs.

Still, a good reminder not to buy stocks like this.
The itch is scratched.
There's 99.99% chance that I'll leave this stock alone.
Will relook 1, 2, 5 years from now per Plan.
Meanwhile, will keep an eye on the price once in a while and comment on it say once a month or so (maybe).

Everyone will have different views and noone really knows the answer
For me, RM8.2 is still expensive in my book.
Mainly because its EPS and DPS shrunk by around 17%-18% per annum over the past 8 years consistently and it's clear to me, this shrinkage is no where near over yet.

My thoughts here for future reference - http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/03/bat-declining-epsdps-how-much-is-stock.html

Strong price drop from 1.57 swing high down to 1.15 close over short time (1+ months). Significant fear there.
Originally planned to accumulate at 1.10 and 1.00, but in view of strong price drop, will only bite small there.
Odds to make new all time lows below 0.975 is now significant - say 20%-30% chance. We like fear opportunities, but the question is always - where is that point of maximum fear? So many levels to choose from.

In the scenario where it makes new all time low, patience is required for cyclical stock. It could take years. Meanwhile EPF monies earn consistently 5%-7% per annum returns, so, why rush? If 3 years, your EPF earns 20% profit already. If you own LCTITAN, you are betting that it will rebound faster but more likely (in view of downtrend) to lose out to EPF.

Always play with the odds. Better to not add to your losers, but if must add, add small and be prepared to be underwater for up to years if need be.

Beware sunset business.
Business EPS and DPS CAGR negative 12% per annum CAGR, price dropped similarly.
Follow long term fundamentals and follow long term price trend. When fundamentals and technical drops like this past 10 years, with no reversals, avoid. Don't be a hero to predict change in fundamentals and change in price trends - that is low probability game and more likely, you will lose out to EPF.

I'm still slightly underweighted HEIM.
Looking to accumulate to neutral position near RM22.
This is the kind of boring stock that I like to invest for the long term in a highly diversified portfolio of 33+ stocks, to grow wealth slowly but beating EPF long term returns of 6% per annum long term.
Blog about my thoughts here just for personal future reference.

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/heim.html

Time is the chief enemy for a sunset stock like this - new lows in the past, new low today, the longer you hold, the more you average down, more new lows in the future. Don't fight the trend.

Can't blame the stock for living up to its name ... falling like "rapid" waterfall! 😂

@raider, you echo my thoughts - double before 5 years is a majority scenario in my book too, especially after this Special Dividend landmark decision. For the first time, in a very long time, HLIND finally decided to share more of its cash with shareholders. Truly landmark.

Now is only Q2, and total dividends 70 sen, highest ever (at least past 10 years).
Nice increase from the previous 57 sen too.
This is how dividends should be managed.

Hence, can recommend higher than neutral position for long term investment.
If the price fall, you'll find me there to support and accumulate to be higher than neutral.

Fuiyoh .... 50 sen special dividend beat my expectations so, so, nicely!
Total dividend this year is now 70 sen. At current price of 9.57, that's still easily above 7% dividend yield.
I am applauding management and the board for not hoarding the cash!
Bravo HLIND!

I have written about both HLIND and BAT here:
HLIND: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/hlind.html
BAT: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/bat.html

One is simple to understand how we make money over the longer term.
The other - I have no clue how shareholders will make money longer term.

This one is certainly a "should own" stock. The only question for me is "how much?" That depends on your objective, your risk tolerance, what is your investment philosophy and strategy. I have mine where I am highly diversified, where my neutral position is around 3% capital. And this one should be neutral. My only complain is why Quek has been hoarding cash for the past 9 years - what exactly are his plans?

Having said that, if you are feeling speculative - note the 6 year triangle consolidation. Within the next 1-2 years, there should be some kind of a breakout.

Happy reading - http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/hlind.html.

My most recent accumulation price is 1.19. It brings my average price down to 1.33, so, I'm still in red. I have around 2.5% of my capital here, so, the unrealized loss is very small.

Normally, I'm not excited at my losses, so, I don't think I'll add more because I already added at 1.19.

@raider, agree it is long term cyclical, that's a sound strategy for cyclicals, except the question is - has it bottomed yet ? What is your average accumulation price and position size (what % of capital) in LCTITAN?

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/pohuat.html
For your reading pleasure.

In summary, I want to own this stock when it is cheap, because it's a very reliable cash generating machine. E.g. since 2015, the Net Cash has consistently grown at a CAGR of 30.2% per annum.

However, I don't want to own this in a big way, because the founder/owner/board is stingy with its dividends for a decade or longer and their DNA is unlikely to change. Still, it's good for at least 5%-5.5% DY per annum, and the stock is clearly undervalued. However, this company has no capital commitments, the last EPS was only 10 sen a big drop from 32 sen the prior year and the lowest over the past 10 years, the founder is ageing, still stingy (e.g. despite owning over 55 million shares, when price was 1.28, he still goes out to the open market to accumulate 0.02 million given his age).

I started drafting when it was RM1.33 but didn't manage to finish it. I had accumulated at an average price of 1.28. My target size is around 2.8% to 3% capital, but I didn't manage to get it, as I only got 2.4% capital, which is close enough that I won't chase. Current price is already 1.43. It's no big deal.

Hope all of you are making monies.

@1288, a couple of months ago, I penned this here. At the time, both BAT and HLIND were trading at similar levels at 9.17 or thereabouts. I shared my view then that it's probably better to swap BAT to HLIND, because both pays high dividends, but one shows declining EPS vs the other rising EPS.

Today, BAT is 9.02. HLIND is 9.40.

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To long term BAT lovers.
Today, BAT closes 9.16.
Another stock that closes similarly is HLIND 9.17.

If you are not a trader and you think you'll be holding BAT for "long term" (e.g. several years), you may want to consider partial / full swap.

Over the past 8 years, BAT EPS dropped from 318 sen (2015) down to 68 sen (2023 Est).
Over the same period, HLIND Net Cash grew from 275m (2016) up to 1600+ million (2023 Est).

HLIND pays a generally rising dividend from 29 sen (2015) to 57 sen (2023 Est).
BAT dividends shrunk from 312 sen (2015) down to 67 sen (2023 Est).

Think about the difference.
You don't need to be a Grade A+ trader like MOBA to win.
Buy HLIND when the price is low.
Do nothing and relax.
In a few years time, check up BAT prices again and compare your HLIND holdings.
Odds are good that you'll win with HLIND.

As usual, nothing is certain in investing.
Hence, don't bet more than 5% of your investment portfolio on any 1 idea.

Hmmm ... after 7 consecutive quarter reporting losses, chart action suggests that speculators are now trying to pick bottoms and betting that LCTITAN's prospects are now looking brighter.

Can't complain. Not chasing. Happy to hold and watch.

On Valentine's Day, I took a trading buy position to buy SHANG at 2.03. Didn't expect it to take off so quickly to close at 2.16. For whatever reason, SHANG is still downtrending, so I won't chase. The only question is should I sell at rally attempts.

My trading position is typically 10-30 times smaller than my dividend investing position, so, I really don't care about the outcome of this trade - no point making a couple hundred bucks. The price action the past 6-7 months seem to indicate more than 50%-55% chance that last month fall is a fake breakdown, typically indicating that we may have seen the bottom. But the trend is unmistakeably downtrending i.e. it's really a coin toss whether this is the bottom or not.

As my trading position is small, I'm going to wait and let market tells me if it's going to make a new low or this is the bottom. A part of me hopes that this rally is a fake one, it makes a new low allowing me to turn my small trading position into an investing position for the next 12-36 months.

I like the SHANG brand name. No exposures to hotels yet. Can be a good diversification to finally own an investing position to utilize 2%-3% of my investing capital.

Nice. On 2/1/24, I first entered into KLCC at RM7.00 as its Dividend Yield ranges between 5%-5.5%. Nice to see it closes strongly today at RM7.65. Together with BIMB and and 22 other stocks in green to offset reds, my portfolio has hit new all time highs again today. That's 4 consecutive days of hitting new all time highs. What a great New Year! Thank-you Mr Market.

Wonder when BJFOOD will issue the quarterly report. Historically, it issues it between 6 to 13 Feb. Today is 16 Feb and not yet issued. Having problems to explain its MRQ earnings? Hmmmnnn ...

On 6 Feb, substantial shareholder (Berjaya Corp, Group, etc) bought 21.2 million shares. Do they know something, or trying to trick the market to support prices? This type of activity (buying its own shares and delaying the issue of the quarterly report to contain the first bad impact) doesn't inspire trust.

It is amazing when you track its NTA growth over the past 10 years - this small growing stock has consistently grown its NTA by 14% per annum CAGR over past 10 years. It's NTA is 3.29. It's trading at 2.44, below Book Value, for a bank that grows its equity at the rate of 14% per annum over past 10 years ... it was so overlooked by the market.

It's Dividend Payout ratio is only 38% ... not stretching at all. This stock grows its Net Worth and grows its earnings and is having a conservative dividend payout ratio. And when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, it was yielding 7.2% dividend yield. What a bargain then.

It pays to own overlooked stocks when everyone was afraid and nobody wants to own it when it was crashing back in May 2022.

I know this bank's value and with a price action like this, there's no rush to take profits on its way up. I may trim it so that it doesn't become too big a proportion but otherwise, the strategy is still to sit tight on your winners and sit tight on your losers, so that your winners become a larger proportion of your portfolio and your losers naturally become a smaller proportion of your portfolio so that your portfolio can keep making new all time highs regularly especially when you own a portfolio of sound, good fundamental stocks and businesses ...

Looking closer, I was very lucky to have entered into BIMB near the bottom.
- My first entry was 9/5/23 at 2.03.
- I then keep buying more as price went down until it hit near the bottom of 1.75 - I didn't get the absolute low of 1.7, but it was good enough to be able to buy at 1.75.
- That brought my average cost down to 1.87.
- Then, we receive dividends. I took some small profits and my net cost after dividends and a small amount of realized means my average cost price is now 1.70. This is for my 5th largest holdings out of 48 stocks.

At 2.44 close today, my unrealized gains is now close to 43%.

And here I was, when I entered at an average cost of 1.87, I was only happy to target a long term Dividend Yield of 7.2%. Now it turns out, instead of gaining 7% (since I held less than a year), I have earned something like 43% gains. What a bonus.

Thank-you Mr Market.

Fuiyoh ... BIMB closed +3.83%. BIMB now climbs to my Top 5 largest stock from Top 7 yesterday. Thanks to BIMB and 23 other stocks that closed in green, my portfolio hit New All Time high again today for 4 consecutive trading days ... Thank-you Mr Market!

Can TAANN hit RM4? Today decent close +2.71% challenging resistance. Intraday looks like rejection and price might fall for a while but the overall attack since Mar 2023 low looks promising in the near future.

The higher lows over past 12 months doesn't make it easy to accumulate. It means there's buyers each time these higher lows were revisited. Someone's accumulating.

Good odds we'll be laughing anywhere in the next 1-12 months ...

BIMB closed +2.6% with higher volume. Nice price move, looking to retest previous resistance. The more times it tries to retest, the better in general.

BIMB is my 7th largest holding out of 49 stocks today. Thanks to BIMB and 21 other green stocks to offset the few reds, my portfolio made new All Time High again today. Thank-you Mr Market!

HAPSENG +1.66%, trying to make an upward move. This plus other green is enough to offset the reds, to propel my portfolio to make new all time high again today. Thank-you Mr Market.

@mini, EPF is very good to deliver average 6% pa. since I started working. My net worth is safe and has grown considerably here. I also self invest in stocks and since inception beat EPF by nearly 4% per annum. It is now larger than my EPF. I recommend EPF to everyone.

@fabien, you'll need to understand selling, to allocate capital efficiently.

PAVREIT closed RM1.32. Nice. After my initial entry at 1.22, I added more as it weakened, with an average buy cost of RM1.21. When foreigners comes to Bursa, they seem to like this one more on the REIT space for obvious reasons.

MBMR closed 4.66, making new All Time High again today.
Thanks to MBMR, MAYBANK, FPI and other stocks, my portfolio also made new all time high again today.
Thank-you Mr Market!

Thanks to MAYBANK, FPI and 21 other stocks to offset 14 red stocks today, my portfolio hit new all-time high again today. With KLCI + 1.26%, hope everyone's portfolio are doing well as well. Thank-you Mr Market.

MAYBANK closed 9.44, helped pull KLCI up.
I'm expecting MAYBANK to declare 32 sen dividend.
I'm also expecting highest EPS for past 9 years, maybe even past 10 years.
Share price no where near highet over past 10 years.
RM10 is a magnet. If supported by positive earnings outlook, we might see this price over next few months.
If foreigners can sustain buying into Malaysia this year, we might even see RM11 either this or next year.

Nice close at 3.05. With higher volume too. Thanks to FPI and another 22 other stocks, my portfolio hit new all time high again today.

Next stop is RM3.45 to close the big opening gap fill a year ago.

At 10.82, TENAGA has given me a price gain of nearly 18%. Originally, I was only looking for 4% price gain per annum, so that's nearly 4.5 years of annual gains already, sooner than I expect. The DY has falled to 4.3%. My DY on cost is 5.3%.

Personally, my base case view is RM11 is a magnet and RM12 is not impossible.
At the same time, I can identify a dozen stocks where very likely monies are better spent on these dozen than remain in TENAGA. These are choices between decent choices (TENAGA) and what I think are better future prospects.

As such, the rational strategy for me is obvious. As price hits my targets, I will lighten to buy what I think are better opportunities. I don't do this often, very rarely in fact, so, these have to be very, very clear to me before I execute. 99% of the decision depends on what market gives me. Nearly always, I do nothing.

TENAGA is decent. The coal part is dirty, declining and until it cleans up, some funds will continue to avoid, notwitstanding a bullish market due to ESG reasons. But it's inflation matching and will always have pricing power. The past 5 years EPS is not looking good, but if history is an indicator, this should improve as it's a quasi monopoly for nearly all of us.

The longer term strategy for this stock is obvious.

Buffett throughout his life is a Master of Position Size. He knows his stock returns extremely well. He knows the base case outcome and the outlier outcomes. He knows how he can fix future stock earnings/returns. He is able to identify stocks with the highest expectancy at the lowest risks and then, size up appropriately. When he finds a truly great deal, he doesn't both to bet small but big. He is the Master of knowing all the risks of a stock.

And honestly, I don't think he will not buy RAPID. This stock has too great a risk that he can't control. It's not to say RAPID can't do well in the future. It's to say along the way, it can also crashmore. So, punting small and not average down is the closest to avoiding the stock.

One advantage of punting very small on speculative stocks, #and# not adding to one's losers = it remains small and doesn't stop your portfolio to make new all time highs again. Today is another day like this. RAPID loses monies but portfolio made new all time highs again. This lesson on Position Sizing is so, so important that nobody talks about it enough. Everyone wants to know what price to enter, what price to exit, but nobody talks about the Art of Position Sizing. Position Size affects most of your returns, not your entries or exits. This is because entries and exits are somewhat random. You got to know your highest expectancy trades and your highest volatility trades and position size appropriately to optimize returns.

EPS fall is slowing down, but still falling.
- Peak EPS in 2015 at 312 sen.
- 2 years later (2017), halved at 169 sen.
- 3 years later (2020), halved again at 83 sen.
My guess is 5 years later (2025), halved again at 40-45 sen. That would value the company at a P/E of 15 at around RM6-7.

As a single Vuse is roughly equal to a dozen cig packs, BAT revenue will still contract for many years to come, and with it, its EPS. Until its Revenues and EPS stabilizes (which can take many years) and turn around, this stock is not ripe for investing yet. This may only happen after 2030 or so ... wait for its next few annual reports.

52 week range 1.21 to 1.35. Doesn't move much. Literally like a super FD. When price is at the lower third (between 1.21 to 1.25), just add to rebalance one's portfolio as one's portfolio grows. I first entered at 1.30 (a little bit high), but have been adding at lower prices and my average cost is now 1.24.

Today it just went ex-div. That brought it down to 1.28. Typically, after that, it may drift slightly lower. Around 1.25, I will add some again to rebalance my portfolio to make sure I have stocks like these at an appropriate size. They are like stabilizers.

Steady dividend payor.

This nice and solid stock edges up, enough to make my portfolio to hit new all time high again! Changed my mind - originally intending to take some profits near RM3 resistance, but along the way when it was 2.8 to 2.87, I added a little bit to raise my average cost from 2.5x to 2.62. This nice counter is in my Top 20% buy size.

My current outlook is to expect 23 sen dividend (say 21-25 sen), assuming 60% dividend payout ratio. At 3.02, this is 7.6% dividend yield which is nice and solid. No plans to take profits yet.

Vape profit margin is much lower than cigarettes.

@60, revenue declined since 2017.
- 2017: 5.61 bn
- 2018: 5.53 bn
- 2019: 5.48 bn
- 2020: 4.9 bn
- 2021: 4.4 bn
- 2022: 4.2 bn
- 2023: 3.8 bn (FYE ending Jan 2023)
- 3Q YTD is lower than 2023.

It's clear its not just current management, the declining revenue and deteriorating business model happened even in previous management.
Basically, its business is sun-setting. For 7 consecutive years, they have no clue how to turn around this business. It's not a hard business to understand - basically lots of new competition past 7 years, and won't get better.

It's trying to bottom and rally, but latest rally attempt on 18 Jan just got sold down hard.

Revenue is one thing, earnings though is a disaster. Past 7 years, earnings declined from a lovely financial position, and this year 9 months looks like it may end the year with the first full year negative earnings for the first time in the company's history since 2017 peak. That's a disaster.

Fundamentally, rallies should be sold. Technically, depends on charts as the price pattern is not natural.

A great role model is Warren Buffet. Hard to go wrong to model after him.

This detail / good news was announced today, so, don't be surprised if price falls tomorrow on good news announcement.

CLMT announced Income Distribution with DRIP.

"Final income distribution of 2.24 sen per CLMT Unit (of which 2.10 sen per CLMT Unit is taxable and 0.14 sen per CLMT Unit is non-taxable in the hands of the CLMT unitholders) for the period from 1 July 2023 to 31 December 2023 ("Final Income Distribution")"

Issue Price per Unit Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 0.5261. Very nice.