@MOBA, great trading entry at 21.32. Nice.

Added 1.02. Less than 2% portfolio total holdings so far ... look forward to lower prices.

@klee, learn from MOBA.

@moba, superb trade! You bought near swing low. You sold near swing high. Definitely A+ trade. Share more on your future trades.

Most retailers are poor short term traders. Every exchange including Bursa has the real statistics. It is not what is read in forums.

How is BAT working out for those who averaged down ? - who are the good short term traders that made monies from recent rise? Do share so that we know you are a very good short term trader.

@Klee, 2 different effects. First is my point that GEG didn’t impact past 8 years reported earnings which has substantially decline due to non GEG reasons. The size of the price decline has followed earnings decline. Second is your point that the Price is additionally impacted by GEG fears. That is valid too for short term traders. However, this second effect to me is secondary and minor and is only something I consider if it’s earnings are growing. These 2 are slightly different considerations.

Personally, GEG is unfair. However, as investors, our personal views doesn't matter. What's clear to me is GEG has zero impact on BAT's declining earnings past 8-10 years so, to me, I'm more concerned on its long term declining earnings than GEG because GEG is just noise - it didn't impact past 10 years, I think it shouldn't impact next 10 years, so, these are just noises.

So tempting. I added at RM22 on Friday. Now 2.4% of my portfolio. My target is around 3.0% of my portfolio. This one is a keeper for a long time. Need to watch my HEIM and CARLSBG to not exceed 5%-6% of my portfolio long term, as dividend payors. I may temporarily exceed this limit for short term trading, but the goal is to keep plenty of spare cash to pick up the panic crash which sometimes happens and really pays off.

Keep this type of trading extremely small. My trade here is more price speculative. I haven't done enough research to justify owning more than 1.5% of my portfolio. This is old habit from looking at price charts only, without really looking at its longer term business, aside from a few balance sheet glances.

I accumulated a bit at 33 sen recently. Since end last year, the A/D line is slowly rising, notwitstanding flat price. This technical divergence suggests that someone has spend a long time to slowly accumulate this stock without moving its price ... I don't know who, but I am following. I am okay if it take 2 years to move, because once we identify a stock with higher probably of being "goreng" later, we follow by buying more at lower prices. For this stock with sound fundamentals, lots of net cash, the only risk is if the manipulator can't accumulate enough. At this juncture, they should have plenty of stock, just might not meet their quota yet to start the push. It's now nearly a year of accumulation.

PAS fears, and political extremism is a valid risk when looking at Malaysia long term (anyone who observed the past 40 years can see this very clearly), hence, the growth in the past is unlikely to be repeated in the future, but human behaviour (to drink) is a longer constant in my personal opinion, so, to me, the net effects should still be long term growth, just, maybe not as high as before due to rising alternatives (but we are talking long term here).

Maybe better to have waited a bit for around 18-18.5 as I mentioned in July, but 19+ was tempting. Personally, I'm not expecting a turnaround within next 6-12 months, so there should be plenty of time to accumulate.

CARLSBG past 8 year EPS/DPS are growing, but not a steady growth:
Year: EPS / DPS
2015: 71 / 77
2016: 67 / 72
2017: 72 / 87
2018: 91 / 100
2019: 95 / 100
2020: 53 / 40
2021: 66 / 56
2022: 104 / 88
2023E: 100? / 86?

So, if just look at 2023 to compare against 2022 and if we factor in loss of Asahi in 2024, CARLSBG looks set to declare lower EPS and lower DPS. Hence it's price has fallen and rightly so.

And if you look at COVID impact to its business in 2020, its EPS dropped substantially in 2020, i.e. it's business is not immune to pandemic (but so are vast majority of busineses) - I can accept this lack of resilience during pandemics.

But if you are willing to take a 8 year view (most investor aren't), then, this is nothing like BAT at all. This company grows in the long term. Maybe the historical high growth is over, but it should still grow because unlike BAT which as vaping and other alternatives, CARLSBG alternatives looks much smaller in comparison and I would think this stock is decent to add to one's long term dividend portfolio, but having said that, I only have 2% and I wouldn't be looking at adding to more than 3% of my portfolio. > 40 of my stocks pays dividends, including CARLSBG.

"The non-renewal of the Asahi Agreements is expected to have an annual net profit impact of approximately RM30 million for the financial year ending 31 December 2024 and this will be progressively mitigated by the introduction of Sapporo in 2024 pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the Company and Sapporo Breweries Limited on 1 November 2023."

30 million p.a. is big, but if we assign a PE of 20, this is roughly RM2 impact to shareholders.
But company has Sapporo to mitigate, so, longer term impact should be less than RM2.
So, I will be slowly accumulating for the long term. Current holdings is small around 2%.

@Jnlee, you should trade following your own rules. Don't let my views sway you. I look at this business from a long term, 10 year perspective, looking for dividend income over the long term. This stock doesn't fit my criteria for long term holding. But if you are a trader, plan to buy low sell high, then, my view should not matter to you. We would have different styles.

My top 2 largest stocks is only 7% of my entire portfolio. I am very well diversified. Last month, 16 of my stocks paid me dividends. It was a good month.

Personally, this stock doesn't interest me from a dividend perspective. After holding for 1 year, earn 7-9% dividend yield, but high odds to lose more than dividends received. If you plan to hold for longer than a year, odds are good that if you park your monies in FD, you are more likely to earn more with peace of mind. Don't let the high dividend yield trap you to become an "investor" when you buy because of the low price and hoping to sell at a profit (a price speculator). Know who you are, why you buy and sell. Be true to yourself.

I once know an exceptional trader where in a long term downtrend, he managed to make money. He uses a proprietary indicator. But he is like 1 in a 1000. Vast majority of people, including 99% retailers, after 100 trades like this, would not make money in a long term downtrend.

If you are winning, it means you are a good market timer. Do share how much you win.

So, those who understand the maths of averaging down knows with certainty that if traders here who averaged down and haven't sold a single share, they are sitting on larger and larger losses.

They may sound bold, but they are losing monies.

@MOBA, actually for those who bought at 50 and today is worth 9, their loss is limited, if they didn't average down.
E.g. if one spent RM10k at 50, and didn't average down, the current value = RM1.8k and loss = RM8.2k.

Whereas, compare to another investor where every 10% drop, they average down. They would have averaged down 16 times.
50 > 45 > 40.5 > 36.5 > 32.8 > 29.5 > 26.6 > 23.9 > 21.5 > 19.4 > 17.4 > 15.7 > 14.1 > 12.7 > 11.4 > 10.3 > 9.3.
If initial spend is 10k and each time average down by 10k, by now, they have spent RM170k.
Total outlay = RM170k. Total shares = 8993 (bought more at lower price). Average cost = 18.9.
At current price of RM9, their loss is smaller % (18.9 - 9) / 18.9 = 52% loss.
However, the 52% loss is applied to a much larger base. In RM terms, loss = RM89,061!!!

In other words, if you do not average down, your loss is limited to only RM8.2k!
But if you blindly average down every 10%, your loss is now RM89k! Those who average down in a losing stock lose more than 10 times those who do nothing.

The morale of the story is this - be highly selective of the stock that you average down.
It must be a growth stock or a stock that will recover, with the passage of time.

When a stock has history of declining over the past 10 years like BAT, the more time you give BAT, the lower its price. That kind of stock is NOT a suitable candidate for averaging down.

In fact, BAT is a wealth destroyer mathematically speaking, when its price keeps falling the past 10 years.
What is going to turn this stock around?

I won't worry too much. As I write this, S&P500 is green. If lucky, then, maybe tomorrow Bursa closes in green and majority odds, BAT might halt its downtrend for a day or two ...

But if Bursa tomorrow closes green and BAT closes red ... then different story ...

@tnang, hard to say for now if RM9 will become strong resistance. Normally, I like to see price fall, then rise and test RM9. Depending on its price and volume, we may be lucky and be able to see if RM9 is indeed the new resistance or not. For now, can't tell yet.

So many tried to pick bottom here. Some one said 9.15 ... for a short while, it held ... then, someone bought big at 9.04 ... for a couple of days, it looks like it held ... then, someone said support is 9 / 8.99 ... for a day, it held ... now 8.94 ... and still downtrending.

So many heroes ... just make sure you don't average down in a downtrend ... then, you go to zero faster.

Nevertheless, downtrend are incredibly volatile ... it can go down for many, many, many days and suddenly, in just 1 or 2 days, all that losses disappear ... very hard to predict.

The challenge with downtrend, is that it's really hard to pick bottom. When you think it's bottom, it goes lower. Never try to fight the trend.

It's business EPS and DPS was already shrinking many years ago, long before GEG even become material. One is business, the other is talk mostly. Business matters.

@Income, for a stock like BAT, price follows EPS and DPS over the longer term.

More downtrend coming.

RM8.99 is not a surprise at all several months back. RM7.99 is not a surprise either in next 12-36 months time, depending on how badly next QR looks like.

To those who bought at RM10+ saying this was multi-decade support floor that will never be broken, when I said it can fall below RM9, looks like we are there now and sad that those who averaged down are now in clear negative territory and will find their losses now getting more permanent. Time is the enemy of inferior, declining EPS stocks. The longer you hold, the bigger your losses become.

@MOBA, BAT EPS is very different than TSLA and NVDA EPS. The latter 2 goes up, the former goes down.

The other consideration is dividend payout ratio.
Normal payout ratio is around 80%.
Last year, it earns 16.5 sen and pays out 9 sen or 55%, i.e. it is consolidating and rebuilding its war chest and will have room in the future to pay out more.
9 sen / 1.5 ~ 6% dividend yield with potential to rise.
Q1/24 3 sen equivalent is already higher than Q1/23 2 sen i.e. 2024 dividends is looking potentially better than 2023.
Its earnings can dip a little bit, and it can support a marginally higher dividend this year and still have a lower than long term average payout ratio of 80%.
I am very comfortable with its numbers.
Only the price chart needs respectiing and not chase.

Between owning an FD vs buying this stock, to me, the choice is obvious. In a diversified portfolio, this is better if you can find a number of stocks like this to own. The dividend yield is solid 6%, backed by business. Lower prices is opportunity to accumulate. I don't this this business will be reporting worse EPS than 2019/2020 levels. It generates cash and is paring down its debt (slowly). It pays dividends to shareholders, typically 1 time in shares and 3 times in cash. Like any stocks, I will never own more than 5% in my portfolio no matter how appealing the business is, but it is above average holdings due to its attractiveness longer term.

Having said that, for this stock price action, there's 2 important things to note:
1. It is in a long term decline over the past 10 years.
2. There's a divergence between its share price action the past 5-10 years vs its business performance.

1. The long term price decline is something all investors and traders should respect i.e. such a long term decline is not so easy to halt and reverse - this usually takes time. Only patient investors and traders should consider such stocks.

2. The divergence between share price vs business performance will not appeal to momentum price traders but appeals to long term investors. Over the past 4 years, its EPS is actually showing a slight increase printing a bottom, nearly 9.95 sen/share. Last 4 quarters is 15.68 sen/share. This is a profitable business, notwitstanding all the TALKS about many things. Short term, TALKS generate fears and lower prices. Longer term, the market is a weighing machine - all that earnings will eventually mean something.

Because of this, if I am buying, I will never chase this stock. The long term downtrend is more likely to reassert itself. The standard trading strategy is to sell on strength because odds are good you can buy back cheaper.

Nevertheless, this company is long on turning around - it's EPS is already turned around 4 years ago, but its price has yet to follow - so, sellers beware because this kind of situation will not last long - chart wise, it looks like good odds, but market has a way to fool chartists and technical traders.

My strategy remains unchanged. Accumulate at lower prices, and sell partially on strength at higher prices. PARTIALLY because there's a risk, when it rises, it might not go down as long as the underlying business numbers keep improving.

1 Treasury shares for every 50 ordinary shares held will not cause a flood of shares to be sold in the market - for most shareholders, that 1 for every 50 will not cause them to sell - e.g. I won't be selling the dividend shares because it is only 2% extra. But 2% is a nice return as SPTOTO pays dividends 4 times per year, and getting 2% for 1 out of the 4 payments in a year is very, very nice. BEATS EPF and FD by a mile.

So, EPS does not drop as a result of distributing Treasury shares. It's the same number of shares outstanding.

@sheldon, read the QR carefully - the dividend of ~ 3 sen/share is funded by Treasury shares and not by issuing new shares. The Treasury shares have been built up by buying SPTOTO shares when its price is depressed. This means the cost of paying out dividends is cheaper than giving straight cash - it's good management by SPTOTO:

"The Board has declared a first interim share dividend of approximately 26.46 million shares on the basis of 1
treasury share for every 50 existing ordinary shares held (fractions of treasury shares to be disregarded) in respect
of financial year ending 30 June 2024. Based on the treasury shares book cost of RM39.58 million (equivalent to
approximately RM1.50 per share), the share dividend is equivalent to approximately 3.0 sen per share based on the
ordinary shares in issue with voting rights as at 20 November 2023 of 1.32 billion (previous year corresponding
quarter ended 30 September 2022: cash dividend of 2.0 sen per share)"

@pang72, I think when HAPSENG fell from 7 down to 6, to 5, to 4, to nearly 3, market was worried that something has been broken permanently in HAPSENG.

However, with the declaration of 15 sen dividend, this brings YTD dividend to 25 sen, within its range over the past 8 years. 25 sen is within 80% of its long term payout ratio over past 8 years. This means HAPSENG business model has not broken over past 8 years, notwitstanding a lot of fears and traders claiming HAPSENG is dead at RM3.

Its long term historical price is near RM7. There is still a long way to go.

Still, the reason is not important. Price action says it all. My strategy remains unchanged. Never chase. Take partial profits on strength and recycle into stocks that are cheaper. HAPSENG still pays attractive dividends on 25 sen - that's still 5% at current price of RM5. Still pays better than FD, although slightly below EPF now.

For me, as long as I can still find decent, wonderful businesses paying dividend yields higher than 5%, I will sell HAPSENG on strength (since on strength, its dividend yield will dip below 5%), to buy higher dividend yields, if all else are identical / comparable.

I would not short HAPSENG.

HAPSENG +4.17%. Thanks HAPSENG for making my portfolio to hit new all time high again! Today is the 9th time this month that my portfolio has made new all time highs! What an amazing month!

Looks like next few weeks or months, there is 51:49 chance, this stock could be heading towards RM1.90-RM2. I won't chase though. But I'll ride it up.

Compare BAT 2022 vs 2023 earnings by quarter:

2022 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 = 17 / 25 / 25 / 21 sen
2023 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 = 13 / 16 / 19 / ??

First, observe that Q1/Q2/Q3 earnings in 2023 is consistently below 2022. This is about business profits. It has nothing to do with GEG talks, or talks about illicit cigarrettes, etc. Talk is talk and talk is cheap. But profits is cold hard cash that is real and has to do with the business. At the end of the day, shareholders own businesses especially long term. Buffett always say - in the short term, market is a voting machine but in the long term, market is a weighing machine. Short term, price can go up and down due to sentiment. Long term, price goes up or down due to earnings, value, and other numbers.

I focus on the numbers and the long term price charts. I ignore talks which are cheap.

When investing in stocks, the first rule is - are you sure you will beat FD and EPF over 5-10 year period?
If not, better to just park one's monies in FD or EPF.
If one invests in BAT over past 5-10 years thinking it is cheap, under valued, low price over-done, etc. etc. etc., one's returns will under-perform FD and EPF and in this case, one is better off not following BAT or ever heard of BAT before.

For those hoping that BAT will go up past RM10, ask yourself - will BAT EPS hit 85 sen or give DPS as high as 83 sen like in 2020?

If not, it is unlikely that it will touch RM10-11 again.
BAT is too big a stock for anyone to "goreng".

If foreigners come back to Bursa in a significant, then, maybe this could happen but many other stocks will outperform BAT when foreigners comes back to Bursa i.e. we don't need BAT to get superior returns.

@kevin tam, suggest you read past 200-300 comments :-)
BAT didn't fall due to GEG.
It fell due to declining EPS, declining DPS the past 8 years, before GEG talks.
It's a numbers thing.
Price follows EPS and DPS i.e. if both falls, for a business like BAT, its price will fall.

BAT has high dividend yields and that kinda cushion some of the price falls for those who bought in 2020.
However, consider that my portfolio (including cash) since 2020 has returned 8% per annum since then.
You won't do too badly (maybe small negative total returns including dividends) but consider the opportunity costs, because there are many better stocks out there.

Today, GTRONIC makes +5.81% and brings my total portfolio to new all time high today ... don't need to be stubborn with BAT.

For those who don't read past 200-300 comments, here's a rehash of BAT EPS, DPS since 2015.

Year / EPS / DPS
2015 / 318 sen / 312 sen
2016 / 253 sen / 232 sen
2017 / 173 sen / 169 sen
2018 / 164 sen / 155 sen
2019 / 121 sen / 118 sen
2020 / 85 sen / 83 sen
2021 / 100 sen / 98 sen
2022 / 92 sen / 88 sen

My prediction for 2023: EPS = 67-70 sen (i.e. new all time low EPS, not due to GEG at all but it's poor business characteristics). DPS ~ 66-69 sen (i.e. new all time low DPS, not due to GEG at all but its poor business characteristics).

As for what the government will / will not do with illicit cigarettes - I'm a numbers guy and when the facts show declining EPS and declining DPS ... all the excuses about what government do / don't do doesn't really matter. Next year, its EPS and DPS does not care at all about what the government will do / don't do.

If EPS and DPS continues to decline to new lows, its price will follow to new lows. To me, it's just maths.

LIIHEN gives very nice dividends every quarter indeed! Plus capital gains too. Price action is promising today.

GTRONIC +5.81%. Thank-you GTRONIC for helping make my portfolio to reach new all time high again today! This month is a record month - my portfolio made all time high 8 days, each day closed higher than the previous day!

HEVEA +4.29%. Nice. Looks like it wants to go up, but plenty of resistance ... Still good enough to make my portfolio rise to all time high again. That's 3 times this week!

Because I have so many dividend stocks, and a lot of experience on dividend stocks, I learn to distinguish good dividend stocks vs poor dividend stocks.

I give you an example of my loss in ARREIT. This is a classic example of a poor dividend stock. It's no different than BAT. As observatory mentioned, poor dividend stocks always show high dividend yield.

The problem with too high dividend yield is that its price falls much more than the high dividend yield.
Dividend yield may be say 8%-10% per annum. On paper looks nice.
But hold them long enough, you lose more in price falls.
ARREIT is like that to me.
I learnt and "cut loss" on BAT 2 months ago to avoid making the same mistake.

How do you distinguish between a good dividend stock vs a poor dividend stock?

Over time, I have learnt many methods.
Ironically, the most reliable method is still technical analysis, even though I am a strong business analyst and can analyze balance sheets, Income statements, Annual reports, Quarterly reports and other reports very fast.

I have over 3 decades experience in this line. I made numerous mistakes that cost monies too.

My portfolio has many losses. BAT, ARREIT.
Despite those losses, the key is not to throw good money after bad.
Instead, invest in good stocks more.
Let your winners run.
Keep your losses small (by not averaging down on losing stocks).
In time, your portfolio will keep making new highs.
Good dividend stocks (not to be confused with High dividend stocks) helps me a lot.

I am a dividend investor mostly.
I am also a speculative trader, but trade a small portion only.

Majority of my gains come from dividends.
Last month, 16 stocks paid me dividends.
This month is a low dividend month, so far only 3 paid dividends.

Good dividend stocks perform better than FD and depending, over time, if it grows, can be better than EPF.
FD and EPF always make all time highs regularly.
My goal is a modest one - to beat FD and EPF by a margin. It also happens, the strategy beats KLCI the past few years, due to KLCI poor price performance.

Personally, I sold off BAT 2 months ago.
Since then, my portfolio made all time highs a dozen times.
This week, my portfolio made all time highs yesterday, and it made a new higher all time high today.
That's because I don't have BAT poor performance to drag my portfolio returns.

If you read my comments in other stocks (click my user handle and read my comments), you'll see that last week, my portfolio made all time highs 4 days. This means in this last 2 week, my portfolio keep making new highs 6 different days already.

A strong part of the reason is because I don't have BAT to drag my portfolio returns down.