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2024-06-10 21:58 | Report Abuse
UOADEV edges up again. Thanks to UOADEV, TAMBUN, LCTITAN and many other greens offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Thank-you Mr Market!
2024-06-10 21:52 | Report Abuse
My entry price is 90 sen. Still holding on to this ridiculously under-valued stock. If this company breaks up, its Net Cash position is higher than market price i.e. getting the entire business for free. It was freakingly difficult to accumulate this extremely thinly traded counter at 90 sen, to be honest, I didn't get enough before price started to rise. But content to have it, and it's enough to help my entire portfolio to make new all time highs again today. Thank you Mr Market!
2024-06-10 21:44 | Report Abuse
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-18-story-h-161579126-LCTITAN_Accumulated_at_RM1
My LCTITAN accumulation at RM1 blogged here is looking good. 12% gross returns in less than a month. The longer term target remains the same as blogged.
After I went in, price dipped even more below RM1 for a few days. However, I was waiting a bit too low and didn't manage to add.
Thanks to LCTITAN and 20 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today, notwithstanding KLCI dipped slightly. Thank-you LCTITAN and Mr Market!
2024-06-09 22:00 | Report Abuse
After my post, SPTOTO posted a good Mar 2024 (Qtr3) results. TTM EPS improved, which bodes well for upcoming dividends. I think 10 sen is safe, i.e. another 2 sen dividend. At an average buy cost of 1.53, that equals 6.6% dividend yield on cost, which is nice, excluding future price gains. I think the bias is on the upside for future earnings, which will be nice for future dividend growth too. If we have caught the multi-decade bottom, there's nothing much more than we can do as we have bought ourselves a future annuity income stream (via dividends) that should keep growing over time, providing us with alternative passive income stream that is superior than FD or EPF.
2024-06-09 19:02 | Report Abuse
On paper, it's clear to me, management quality is superior - rates B+ or A-. Family owned business, founders 3 brothers + 1 sister age 60-71 i.e. they won't be around forever. Succession already in place with son age 42 sitting in the board. Just remember, business is cyclical over years. Just remember - despite good management, this stock can crash down to as low as 12 sen during Covid pandemic lockdowns / recession. This is not a Buy and Hold stock, don't buy it for the dividends, don't own it for its Net Cash.
2024-06-09 18:56 | Report Abuse
@SincereStock, nice trading.
Looking at this specific company for the first time. It's clearly a cyclical stock with most earnings from shipping and recently from shipbuilding. Have at least 2-3 really great years since 2021, able to turn around net debt to net cash, and started paying annual dividends twice. But cyclical also means eventually, shipping rates will turn down one day and the net cash will disappear and revert back to net debt if they don't manage well - we are talking over years. Worst fears during Covid pandemic, when it's Net Debt ballooned and share price dropped to a low 12 sen. Company has been buying back stocks up to 69.5 sen. unclear if company plans to buy back at 70 sen+ or not. I think releasing half at 76.5-77.5 sen looks right to reduce risk.
Longer term, no of vessels are reducing, so, the company doesn't think the good shipping rates will last longer than a few years and probably waiting for rates to eventually come down and then buy more vessels at the cycle low. This is normal shipping strategy to not chase but anticipate cycles.
I won't chase for sure. But it's in my radar screen for dips and cycle lows in the future coming years.
2024-06-09 17:27 | Report Abuse
Hahaha ... apa apa macam ada in this business.
2024-06-09 17:14 | Report Abuse
I was around when it hit RM74 peak and long before that.
When it first fell below 50 to a low of 40+, people said it was cheap and so, when it went back up briefly to 56 it validated the "average downers".
But that was the last time it stayed above 50. After that, it keeps making lower highs and lower lows. Those who previously averaged down and validated, now find their average down strategies hurting them even more.
Market likes to zig zag, to fool a lot of the "average downers".
Investing doesn't have to be difficult. Just pick a good quality fundamental stock that is trading upwards for the past 20 years or so. Wait until it drops to buying zone and then do nothing. Better if it pays dividends too.
2024-06-09 16:23 | Report Abuse
PS. In case one wonders how big a position size, I recently added PBBANK at 4.06 at a much larger position, than the current BAT trading position here. This is because over the next 5, 10, 20 years, my conviction on PBBANK at 4.06 is much higher than BAT. My position size reflects my conviction.
2024-06-09 16:13 | Report Abuse
MOBA, you are right on the spot on BAT. The longer one owns BAT, the bigger the loss as the chart trend downwards. The more one averages down on BAT and position size bigger, the bigger the cumulative $ loss. It's 100% maths.
Still, there's a short term 50/50 setup that is good to cure boredom as we don't do anything to our winning rising positions. So, I took a first entry short term trade at 8.5 before it went ex-div, and plan to dispose when it gets to around 8.8-8.9 or 9 or higher depending ... I blogged on it here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-09-story-h-159761967-BAT_trading_update
2024-06-09 15:30 | Report Abuse
2024-06-09 14:33 | Report Abuse
@speakup, I prefer log charts, instead of traditional linear charts, so that every doubling is equidistant.
I use price charts instead of adjusted with dividends, to measure the worth of a company at any point in time - meaning monies paid out is no longer part of the company's worth.
No right or wrong, just know your reasons and how you interpret.
2024-06-07 23:01 | Report Abuse
My GTC Limit Buy order at 4.06 was filled. It lowered my average buy price to 4.12. The stock is now my 2nd largest holding after MAYBANK by market value, and forms 3.7% of my highly diversified portfolio comprising of 40 stocks with dividend yield on cost > 3% p.a. with 13 other stocks for short/mid/longer term trading positions. My median position size is around 2% of portfolio, so, 3.7% is quite a significant weighting, almost doubling the median position size. This is a long term hold for me, the play is to collect a growing dividend income in the coming years. With 19 sen annual dividend, at an average cost of 4.12, the dividend yield on cost is 4.61% which beats FD handsomely, and should this grow by 5% per annum over the next 14 years, we can expect the dividend yield on cost to rise to over 9% per annum. Nice long term position.
2024-06-07 22:48 | Report Abuse
It couldn't go below 0.745 the past 5 days, when there was majority odds of falling towards 0.70 a week ago. This is bullish price action. Now the path of least resistance is up. That's the thing about Technical Analysis - unlike fundamentals which hardly changed in 3 months, TA can change its mind very quickly, sometimes, as quick as a day and sometimes changes its mind many times over the course of a quarter. Both has its pros and cons. Regardless, nothing to do unless you are a price speculator who buys high hoping to sell higher (and takes a risk of being stopped out). The higher low past week provides a bullish bias.
2024-06-07 22:44 | Report Abuse
Strong weekly close at new high at 2.04, with higher volume than last week's. Nice. Thank-you Mr Market!
2024-06-07 14:59 | Report Abuse
Wow. 5.39 high so far and still solid. Can't do anything with current holdings, just keep holding. In the past IB claimed unclear, peak earnings etc to entice selling but anyone who followed to sell will be regretting. This company turned around from high net debt to positive net cash by FYE 2018. And the Net Cash keeps growing and growing. Management has done a great job so far. Just this quarter alone, net cash grew by 25 million in 1 quarter, or 100m expected if annualized. The last 12 months earnings is reported to be 86 sen. Total dividends paid out last year including special dividends is only 39 sen. At 39 sen, the dividend yield when divide by my cost price of 3.50 is already 11% dividend yield on cost i.e. I will never sell this company as long as its fundamentals remain intact as there is no where else that I can deploy that money that pays me such a high dividend yield. Best to do nothing and just enjoy the ride. Thank-you Mr Market!
2024-06-06 10:52 | Report Abuse
@dompeilee, is that because your net worth has increased more than 38X since '14-'16? 😂
2024-05-28 02:32 | Report Abuse
A simple fundamental metric I sometimes look at is EPS/RPS, a proxy for Profit Margin (I look at many things, this is just one of many). Using their latest reported FYE:
a. MAYBANK = 77.5 sen / 534 ~ 15%
b. PBBANK = 34.3 sen / 131 ~ 26% (higher than MAYBANK - expected).
c. AMBANK = 56.4 sen / 140 ~ 40%! Too good to be true???
Anyone has any bank comparative insights into the 40% figure?
Will be going overseas for holidays for a fortnight, no time to look closer.
Previously traded using Technical Analysis only on AMBANK (and did decently, catching the buys around 3.26 and selling around 4.12), but now looking harder at the fundamentals especially after the 1MDB one-time massive billion $ provisions at FYE2021, for longer term holdings till end of bull market.
I am considering owning on weakness for these reasons: 1. Additional diversification to my already well diversified portfolio. 2. Wanting to tilt slightly to a higher bank sector weighting. 3. Potential to revalue towards P/BV > 1 at peak of bull market. 4. Decent dividend yield. 5. If EPS grows, DPS should grow.
However, I don't yet understand that 40% figure - so, for now, will only consider taking 1/5th of a neutral position (if neutral is around 2.5%-3% capital per position, this one is probably 0.5% or so for now), as still under research and construction - no rush I am patient to spend months building up a position. The long term technical setup is interesting ... but would like to better understand why 40% .... Appreciate if the AMBANK experts can share insights to the 40% vs other major banks ...
2024-05-27 20:34 | Report Abuse
@thirai, I try not to trade sound businesses that pays good dividend yields because it's reduces my dividend income. I note you sold during mid 2022 when price ranges around 4.5 +/- 20 sen or so. From say Jun 2022 to today, PBBANK has paid 39 sen of dividends.
If one is an average trader who sold at 4.50 and lost out on 39 sen dividend, the same Buy and Hold investor now sees his average cost reducing from 4.50 in mid 2022, to 4.11 today. Additionally, he didn't incur sell commissions and didn't incur buy commissions, which is around 4-5 sen. Therefore the trader who sold at 4.50 will need price to fall back down to around 4.06 and buy back, when doing this, he's just neutral compared to the Buy and Hold investor.
Meaning, the longer one is away from markets and as PBBANK keeps paying dividends, the average cost keeps coming down to due receipts of dividends.
I do have a few trading stocks, where typically, they don't pay dividends but are cyclicals, with much larger price volatility and win bigger %s. For high dividend yield stocks like MAYBANK, or good dividend yield stocks like PBBANK, I don't trade them.
2024-05-27 19:37 | Report Abuse
@mesoan, net income is important. Total EPS also important. Growth since peak EPS CAGR is only 3.5%. From 2014-2018, it's higher at 5.5%, so, it slowed down but still growing. I would rate C+ or B- - it's above average, but not spectacular, and from banks, we should not expect spectacular growth - otherwise, that is likely to mean the bank takes a very risky approach. What you want from banks is that long term steady growth that beats inflation, beats GDP growth, and I think better than 50/50 odds PBBANK can continue to do that over the next decade or two. The other thing from banks that we expect is long term resilience in earnings. That recovery after crashes, corrections and crisis. That banks are here to stay during our lifetime. For me, banks is for investing, not for trading. And it is to buy during market corrections and hold.
2024-05-27 19:07 | Report Abuse
Yes, majority odds below 70 sen. 4+ months of goreng is not long enough for operators to collect - still too many strong hands.
2024-05-27 18:47 | Report Abuse
On 23 May, price didn't want to go up past 4.24. That's a lower high. So, the path of least resistance for now is down. Today closed 4.13 and should still move down next few days. The key areas are around 4.06 and 4.03. It's definitely an add for me around there, as my position size is still below neutral at 3.1%. For me, this stock is around 4% to be neutral around that price. Below 4, I will add to increase position size to 4.5% and 5% depending on how far it falls. Just current thoughts.
2024-05-25 22:37 | Report Abuse
I like PPB grains, agribusiness and consumer segments, I like its management quality, but a little bit undecided about the entry price. The dividend yield is still a bit lower at 14.88, so, I need the entry price to be lower. No position yet, but hope to join soon. I know we're in bull market, but I'm wary that it continues to make lower highs. On monthly candles, the second bottom is not yet in - whilst we hope it prints a higher low, I don't want to rush in yet as there are many other ideas that looks more attractive at this juncture for me. Still, its in my radar screen for sure.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-25-story-h-160749779-PPB_Entering_accumulation_zone_but_should_you_accumulate
2024-05-24 03:39 | Report Abuse
Today, reported substantial shareholders buy again.
Today, reported that some operators are suing Perlis State Government for banning, claiming it is outside their jurisdiction. If they win, the stock price will revalue.
SPTOTO 9 sen DPS is around 55% payout ratio i.e. not stretched. 9 sen is close to 6% dividend yield. Downside risks are low. Worst case, if maintain 9 sen forever (unlikely, more likely to grow), it already beats EPF and FD.
Upside is clearly higher odds over next 5, 10 years. That much is clear for me.
2024-05-24 03:33 | Report Abuse
I hope they win.
2024-05-24 03:18 | Report Abuse
2024-05-24 02:32 | Report Abuse
It's always easier to own a stock that trends upwards long term - like TENAGA.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805767-TENAGA_Is_it_time_to_sell
2024-05-24 01:39 | Report Abuse
I looked at the long term chart and here's what I see. Give that article a like if you find these charts helpful.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805767-TENAGA_Is_it_time_to_sell#google_vignette
2024-05-24 01:28 | Report Abuse
What's amazing is TENAGA is supposed to be a defensive, dividend stock. I did get 4.5% p.a. in dividend yield over the 3 years. But the price gain is 14.5%! Price gain is like 3 times dividend yield! If you asked me 3 years ago what I thought would be a good price gain, I would say equal to dividend yield for a defensive stock like this. This mega cap behaves like a smaller cap!
2024-05-24 01:16 | Report Abuse
I first bought TENAGA in Apr 2021, over 3 years ago. Excluding dividends, the TENAGA portfolio CAGR is 14.57%. Including dividends, the CAGR is 19%!!! What an outperformance, who knew TENAGA could outperform on an annual compounded basis to return 19% per annum! Unbelievable!
2024-05-24 01:05 | Report Abuse
Thanks to TENAGA and 24 other greens to offset reds, my portfolio also made new all time highs today. That's 12 times this month alone! What an amazing month! Thank-you Mr Market!
2024-05-24 01:03 | Report Abuse
HEKTAR closed strongly at 72 sen. Thanks to HEKTAR and 24 other green stocks offsetting red, my portfolio made new all time highs again today - that's 12 times in May alone. What an amazing month. Thank-you HEKTAR and thank-you Mr Market!
2024-05-24 01:01 | Report Abuse
ASTRO closed +7.94%. I still have position that I didn't average down to 30 sen and now strongly shoot up. Still, this move, plus 24 other greens offsetting reds, has made my portfolio to hit new all time highs again today. May has been a most amazing month - my portfolio hit new all time highs for 12 days just this month! Surreal! Excellent bull run!
2024-05-22 17:55 | Report Abuse
And the thing with Buy and Hold stock like PBBANK, we don't think about selling. All we think about is how high will next year's dividend grows. It's really about buying a growing annuity income that pays dividends for a lifetime. Nobody thinks about selling pensions / annuities that they own. Same with PBBANK - it's about collecting the growing dividends until we die, and then, pass it on to our next of kin. So, the only question is about entry price, but even then, don't get hooked up to it.
As usual, diversify, don't own more than 5%-10% of your portfolio max if you like to see your portfolio continue to make new all time highs regularly.
2024-05-22 17:49 | Report Abuse
@Engineer ... I don't know what to say ... all I can say is don't imagine "what if I have held and not sell the past 24 years" ... look forward. 😁
2024-05-22 17:46 | Report Abuse
If Warren Buffett management team rates an A, then, I would rate PBBANK management B/B+ and MAYBANK management C+ from a personal perception point of view. A C is good enough for me to invest. Some of these ratings unfortunately cannot be delinked from other factors, so, it's not necessarily a comment about individuals per se, but the broader picture, in so far as their ability to maximize earnings and dividends to shareholders over the long term i.e. over my lifetime. Others with a different time-frame and different priorities will have different ratings.
2024-05-22 17:42 | Report Abuse
Notwitstanding age, PBBANK management quality is top class, I would rate clearly higher than management quality in other banks, so, it's not a complaint. However, it would clearly be market leader if there is clear pipeline succession and do what Warren Buffett do which is to name 2 potential successor amongst its current management team where the whole world knows. If PBBANK can do this, the stock will re-rate upwards. However, this is rare in Malaysia, so, don't hold your breath for this to happen. Just saying.
2024-05-22 17:37 | Report Abuse
Personally, my only whinge is old management and Board and lack of transparency on pipeline succession. Tan Sri Dato' Tay Ah Lek contributions to PBBANK success is unparalleled, but markets are wary of MD and CEO who is 82 years old. He can be a senior mentor, but if there is a CEO who is 20-25 years young (still late 50s, early 60s) that he can trust, I believe the market will re-rate this stock. However, if you 're in this stock for the long haul, re-rating is not necessary but a bonus. It is okay because with each passing annual and quarterly reports, you will see growing EPS, DPS and NAPS and the stock price grows with it.
2024-05-22 17:32 | Report Abuse
New investors into PBBANK will always find PBBANK less attractive than MAYBANK. That's probably true after 3-7 years of holding. However, by the 8-10th year of holding, they will be glad they bought PBBANK and not MAYBANK, due to the dividend and earnings growth effect. If you want to own this for life (e.g. for upcoming retirees wanting to have a growing annuity / dividend payment for life), this is one of the proven stocks.
2024-05-22 17:28 | Report Abuse
Don't get too hooked up that 1Q24 earnings are lower than 1Q23 earnings. If you're in for the long term and studied carefully its historical quarterly earnings over the past 10 years, it's not a permanent drop. When prices are temporarily depressed, it's usually a good opportunity to own one of the leading banks in the country and in a sector that is profitable and resilient over the long term. PBBANK will be clearly more profitable than today in 10, 20 years time.
2024-05-22 17:25 | Report Abuse
Digibanks provide better short term returns to customers, no question, as there's lots of nice promotions right now. But the million dollar question is - do they have the track record to survive through the crisis, the recessions, the market crashes? Will they be there for the long haul? Only time will tell. Short term, they win market share but long term? With PBBANK, if your goal is to own this stock "forever", then, your eyes is on the next 10, 20 years, not current.
2024-05-22 17:21 | Report Abuse
It's true that the Management and the Board is older and it's easy to criticize old, but if you compare against the alternative where the choice is a young and brash management and board, for one of the leading banks, you want the experience to navigate through the financial volatile world. Banking is not about sexy and short-termism. It's about experience and being there for the long haul, "forever" so to speak. Of course, there should be a clear pipeline of younger successors coming up, but IMHO, they should not be too young and should have a balance erring on over 50s for the necessary experience.
2024-05-22 17:17 | Report Abuse
To me, PBBANK is a Warren Buffett stock, where our favorite holding period should be "forever". This is because of the bank's long term historical track record of growing its EPS and DPS and as a result its NAPS. Due to its reliable dividend growth, after several years of holding, the Dividend Yield on Cost will have grown significantly, and the best part is it keeps growing thereafter. If you have a choice between putting an FD with Public Bank, or buy its stock, no question, the latter will cause you to be very happy in 10, 20 years time. In the short term, many stocks look attractive compared to PBBANK, but after 10 years, you will be happier that you have bought PBBANBK instead of others.
Those who owned PBBANK 10 years ago will know what I mean.
2024-05-21 23:13 | Report Abuse
2024-05-20 19:06 | Report Abuse
I just blogged about CSCSTEL here in i3.
Bought 5 times, haven't sold a single share yet.
Noted Net Cash has grown the past decade and is now around 92 sen.
It has a very high NAPS in a clean balance sheet of RM2.37.
However, because it didn't share its profits as much, the price is still depressed at 1.52.
This company has declared 9.4 sen dividend, hence, Mr Market is now happier.
This company could declare 12 sen at FYE2025 and 15 sen at FYE2026 to lower the NAPS down to around RM2.25 and if it does so, or sends this message, no reason why this stock cannot make a new all time high past RM2.25 and trade at book value.
However, it is unclear if the company wishes to do so or not. You'd think they will, but this depends.
hence, long term investors should not have a full position in this cylical stock.
It is still a cylical business over the long term.
Anyway, thanks to CSCSTEL and other greens to offsets reds, my portfolio has hit new all time high again today, the 10th time this month, as KLCI powers up to new heights! Trust everyone makes monies if they don't average down on their losers. Thank-you Mr Market!
2024-05-20 18:05 | Report Abuse
Nice move today and the past 4 months after breakout. My average entry price is 8.94, and with dividends, have lowered that entry price down to 7.96. Haven't sold a single stock yet. Thanks to HLIND and greens offsetting reds, portfolio made new all time high again today, this month is the 10th time. Great bull run, thank-you Mr Market!
2024-05-20 17:54 | Report Abuse
Btw, substantial shareholders have been buying the stock several times this month too. They must think SPTOTO has value.
2024-05-20 17:50 | Report Abuse
Nice strong close. +7.48%. Thanks to SPTOTO and 24 other greens to offset reds, the portfolio prints a new all time high water mark again for the 10th time this month. Thank-you Mr Market!
Stock: [UOADEV]: UOA DEVELOPMENT BERHAD
2024-06-10 22:05 | Report Abuse
UOADEV managements gets above average / superior rating from me for managing this company. Back in 2016 or so, this company has sizeable debts, both long term and short term borrowings. Over the years, it runs its business profitably and receives cash and it uses that to pare down both LT and ST borrowings to practically zero. The Net Cash has ballooned to RM1.8-RM1.9 billion after paying out the Special Dividends. It's business generates cash nicely and it shares with shareholders. What's not to like. Historically, 15 sen dividend is not a problem, last year with Special dividend was 30 sen but even at 15 sen per year, divided by RM2, is 7.5% dividend yield, so, what's not to like for this stock?
The business is resilient - COVID did not impact its business - it continued to generate cash.
This is one of my top 20% holdings. My average entry is 1.62 excluding dividends. With dividends, it has gone down. Haven't sold a single share yet.