Sharing my personal trade reflections and my simple thoughts on where it might go next. https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-03-story-h-157859253-HUPSENG_Trade_Reflections_and_Where_to_next

Nice. HUPSENG hit 1.28 to take out my partial GTC Sell order. I originally bought HUPSENG at 67.7 sen average nearly 1.5 years ago on average. Along with 2 prior partial profit take, my IRR is now 46.5% per annum. I trade very small, I now own a low 5 digit holding that is very nearly cost free, paid for by my partial profit takes. Thank-you Mr Market and thank-you HUPSENG!

Hello Bullish.
I didn't know if it will limit up, but my 2nd trade buys between 67-69.5 sen was sold in 3 stages at 88 sen, 96 sen and RM1.06 to lock in the profit from the 2nd trade, to lower my average price down. I felt majority odds after hitting my average price of RM1.06 that it will come back down - just a sense that turns out right.

So, RAPID is trading at 82.5 sen as I write this. So, I'm expecting 81 sen swing low to break (majority odds) and if so, will be looking to buy back at the "right" spot at a lower price (which I don't know yet as the idea hasn't jumped out at me yet). Will probably take a few swings to know. No rush for me, have plenty of time (months).

Posted a chart here - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-03-story-h-157889906-EVERGRN_Trading_Stock. The resistance are pretty obvious.

If it breaks above 45 sen convincingly, I think we wont see 30 sen for a very long time to come.

Nice move today for a trading stock. My partial GTC sell order at 39.5 sen was filled but maybe a bit too early but it lowered my average cost down to 24 sen now. Will enjoy the ride up to 45 sen next.

My average buy price is 1.00. TSH is a trading stock for me. My partial GTC Sell order today at 1.24 was filled, to lower my average cost down to 92 sen. The 1.17-1.20 zone looks important to hold during the coming retracement. If it closes below this, then, I intend to be patient and wait for it to go lower before buying back what's sold.

My GTC sell order at 1.38 entered some time ago was executed today automatically without watching.
Average buy period is 1.31 years. 3 rounds of buys and sells and still hold a sizeable position. 41.1% per annum IRR.

I blogged about it here - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-02-story-h-157890093-ANNJOO_Do_less_earn_more.

I bought at 19 sen and 19.5 sen for trading. Took partial profit at 23.5 sen to bring down my average entry price to 17.5 sen. Let's see if this counter can really run to 30 sen ... speculative trade, not a dividend stock.

Haven't followed this counter, but on 7 Sep 2023, I mentioned I sold into strength and not to chase and wait for it to retrace. I followed my advice and bought back at 30 sen. Now still holding at 39 sen with +30% gain in less than a year. Nice. Let's see how high this one can go on its 2nd leg up. Pure technical speculative play, not a dividend stock.

PBBANK is so liquid, I can publicly announce my plans BEFORE hand and it has no impact to my trade executions. However, other stocks I can't announce, as liquidity is lower.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805766-PBBANK_I_added_at_4_18.

As shown in the chart, it hasn't reached the bottom line yet. As price falls, the odds increases that it will touch the bottom uptrend line. And if it keeps falling, odds increases that it will fall BELOW that long term uptrend line temporarily. I am spreading my buys to allow for all these possibilities, whilst maintaining position sizing. Add SLOWLY at lower prices or do nothing until it reaches the bottom of that uptrend line.

Remember to watch your position size - don't be greedy. I'm still quite far from 5% capital for this holding, so, welcome to add at lower prices in months to come via GTC Buy Limit orders i.e. no need to watch the market.

My GTC Buy Fill order at RM4 was filled. Slowly queuing and adding at lower prices, including below RM4. Plenty of time to accumulate as price is unlikely to run up for months. 19 sen dividend is likely to rise in years to come. 19 sen / RM4 ~ 4.8% dividend yield, what's not to like. Lower prices are coming and that's great news for long term accumulators for retirement passive income for life later.

My GTC Limit Buy order at 4.00 was filled. Plenty of time to accumulate, still no where near my full position yet, but lower price is an add and over multi-year basis, it's in accumulation zone. With DPS of 19 sen, DY has now risen to 4.8% per annum.

Objectively, can still wait for price to fall below RM4 for better pricing but I have GTC Buy orders below RM4 to wait. For long term holdings, won't argue over sens.

Thank-you ANNJOO. Thanks for helping to make my portfolio hit new high again today, that's 5th consecutive times this month in June alone!

Yes. Thanks to PPHB and greens offsetting red, today, my portfolio made new all time high again! This is 5th time this month! Thank-you PPHB, thank-you Mr Market!

@jeffrey, I explained how many stocks here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-11-story-h-159701327-Portfolio_All_Time_High_Profit_Watermark_June_Update

@Thirai, it's gung ho indeed if you can't cope, but if you can, do note institutional investors prefer to own much more than 50-100 stocks, due to their fund mandate and benchmarks.

Here's 3 examples:

1. PB Dividend Builder Equity Fund. Benchmark = 90% FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 (FBM100) & 10% 3 month KLIBOR. Their benchmark is 100 stocks. Their overseas exposures are USA (10.0%), Taiwan (4.2%), China (2.1%), Korea (1.5%) across many different sectors i.e. their portfolio contains 3 digit stocks.
2. PB Growth Fund. Benchmark = KLCI = 30 stocks; They have exposures in US (7.0%), China (6.0%), Taiwan (1.9%), UK (1.2%) i.e. 3 digit stocks.
3. PB Islamic Equity Fund. Benchmark = FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index comprising of 220 stocks. They also invests 8.1% in the US, 4.7% in China, 3.1% Netherlands.
etc.

More important is to avoid large losses, which ever the style.

Interesting ... out of 54 open stock positions, 13 are losses, 41 winners and the $ winner far offset the losers. I have another 18 mostly trading stocks that I have closed and 18 / 18 are winners with no losers. Total winner 59 / 72 ~ 82%.

The small paper losses are mostly investing positions which include AMFIRST, BAT (trading), CARLSBG, CHINWEL, HEIM, HEKTAR, MAGNUM (trading), MAXIS, PBBANK, RAPID (trading), these 10 are extremely small % loss - I am very confident, with time, they will turn profitable, mostly by doing nothing, but some may require trading (e.g. BAT - cannot keep for too long). The 3 bigger % loss are ARREIT, ASTRO and BESHOM, all 3 are hopeless - don't enter them (I'm not), don't average down (I'm not) - my plan is to just leave them there to die a natural death as they are small. These 3 has VERY successfully reminded me for a long time - a constant reminder - not to buy a stock that is going down - that reminder has successfully enabled my portfolio to keep making new all time highs as a result.

Since I started investing in Bursa, my win rate is pretty good including paper gains/loss. 82% of my stocks investing/trading results in win, only 18% is a loss, and all 18 are paper losses so far which a majority I expect to be temporary.

I suspect my win rate is higher than many professional fund managers. Notwitstanding, I know enough to know that my analysis have limitations, that no matter how good an analysis I do, I will still be proven wrong from time to time.

My reference is the typical institutional investors like unit trust fund managers, insurance companies, banks. All of them are highly diversified, owning anywhere from 50 to 500 different stocks. In theory, they are supposed to be the true experts on analysis of stocks, with the huge professional resources they have, access to management, etc - much more than I have. Yet, they don't invest in 5 or 10 stocks. It's good to ponder why. Because if you read their IB reports, they are always surprised after next quarter or next few quarters. Noone can eliminate surprise by analysis.

I forgot to mention what I always look for before triggering which is good valuation, attractive entry price, buy during accumulation zone, can visualize higher earnings and DPS in 5, 10, 20 years time too.

I try not to over-analyze any one stock, because I have too many experiences over the past 3 decades, where I analyzed in great detail (like at least 100 times more detail), thinking I knew the most, but one day, the market threw me a curve that I could never have predicted, notwitstanding numerous detailed analysis everywhere.

In short, as retail investors, we will never ever know everything no matter how much we analyze, research, access to management and board, etc.

Because of these occasional bad past experiences, I have given up owning say 10 stocks or less - it is too few because if I lose 10% capital, it's a lot harder to make it back than losing just 2% or 3% capital.

So, my minimum number of holdings is at least 40 stocks. My experience is I only need to spend 2% of the time to analyze the big picture, and it explains 98% of the results over the long term. In short, I play the statistics. Every stock idea should be capable of being explained in 1 minute. If you can't explain the idea in 1 minutes, I pass.

So, what is FPI's one minute idea?
1. Long term chart - rising
2. Small cap with room to grow.
3. Past 10 years business growth is proven, whether RPS, EPS, DPS and/or NAPS growth - it has proven itself.
4. Speakers business is niche - FPI didn't grow like this over past 10 years if it wasn't doing something right - true next 10 years is unclear, nobody really knows, but the edge is better than 50/50.
5. Excellent financials and balance sheet today and in the past - that's good enough to earn my trust.

In short, it's good enough for me to own up to 2%-3% of capital on this stock. I have no intention to own 10% or 20% capital into this one stock - if you want to own this much, you need much greater assurance than I need, but I doubt the extra 10-100 times more analysis is going to beat the 1 minute statement above in the long run.

Just my 2 sen.

New all time high 1.07!

Today, my portfolio has 21 greens and 27 reds. However, thanks to PPHB, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Thank-you PPHB and Thank-you Mr Market!

@speakup, lol. I wish. Mr Market has proven me wrong so many times, I completely lost count, and I will continue to be wrong many, many more times in future.

For GENM, I also wish 15 sen dividend is guaranteed, but we both know this is never guaranteed too. I sincerely hope people diversify and not be greedy, so that if there's a dividend cut one day downstream, they won't be too disappointed, and if there is a dividend increase in the future they won't be too euphoric too.

Cheers!

Personally, I thought the LCTITAN article which I shared on 18 May to share, that I have accumulated LCTITAN at RM1 is a better article. Today, on 13 June, less than a month, the stock traded as high as RM1.39 before closing at RM1.33 should be a much better call. That's 33%-39% returns in less than 4 weeks. I highly doubt GENM will give anywhere close to that. My goal with GENM is a modest one - only 9% per annum returns - hardly deserving so many views.

I just posted an update on FPI here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-13-story-h-159639979-FPI_Update

I like to think there's a majority chance a breakout will soon happen to the upside, but that's not my primary objective - my main goal is to own this stock for its high dividend yield, and if there's a price gain, that's a bonus.

Never be greedy. My position size here is around 3% capital. Not expecting to be wrong, but if it turns out that I'm wrong, then, no major drama - just collect the dividends, and wait for the next high probability setup.

Nice. New High again. My TENAGA average entry price is 9.11 (excluding dividends, and if include dividends is 7.61). At 14.14, that's a crazy 55%+ price gain! My original plan was to own it for its dividends. Lol. Thank-you TENAGA and Thank-you Mr Market!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/06/12/hektar-reit-chief-exec-johari-resigns
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/715052

As a retailer, I can't predict this.
I believe market knew about this at least 1-2 weeks prior with the gap down after closing strongly at 72 sen.

Nevertheless, this shows why it is important to diversify, so that sudden news like this doesn't prevent our total portfolio from making new highs again.

Thanks to LCTITAN, today, my portfolio made new all time highs again, notwithstanding HEKTAR has been a drag since hitting a high of 72 sen 2 weeks ago. In fact, since 2 weeks ago, my portfolio made new all time highs 3 times, notwithstanding HEKTAR fell from 72 sen to 62 sen.

Nice. LCTITAN +13sen (+10.83%). Actually, today, my portfolio only have 15 greens and 25 reds. However, thanks to LCTITAN big move, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Thank-you LCTITAN and thank-you Mr Market!

PS. Technical analysts who draw trend lines know that there is a common observation that differentiates the strength of trend lines. Basically, there's this simple rule of thumb that says that if the trend line is drawn over a longer period vs a shorter period, then, the longer period trend line is stronger.

So, the bottom trend line spans nearly 28 years. This one must respect.
The top trend line spans a much shorter period. All things equal, it is weaker.

This is why instinctively, I say that when it comes to 2025-26, the bias is tilted towards upside, say 80/20 chance.
Now that I think about it, it's because the trend line patterns that I draw is a common one that I've seen before many times in the past.

Anyway, nobody knows the future, so, don't bet the farm. Just sharing some common TA observations.

I previously sold a significant portion when GENM was rising from 2.7 to 2.9.
Now as it falls back down to 2.5, I am queueing to buy back the portion of GENM sold previously.
Just a simple GTC order and let market decide.
I think it may fall below 2.5, hence, set a budget like 2%-2.5% capital, split into 2-3 parcels, enter the first order and then just wait.

My investment goal is a modest one - 6% dividend yield + 3% per annum price gain yield giving total returns of 9% per annum.

As GENM is highly liquid stock, I have no problem to share this idea upfront, as I suspect GENM is quite unpopular these days with its frustrating price action to many impatient investors.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-12-story-h-159700553-GENM_queue_to_buy_at_2_50

Jnlee, I already fully explained in this article and the link to past posts. Read them carefully.

PS2. I have a feeling I may be wrong about this idea and misinterpreted the charts. So, I have earlier placed a GTC sell order at 8.9. I hope, market takes me out at a small profit before this year end.

TUNEPRO is one of 14 of my speculative trading stock where the goal is price gains. My average entry price is 30 sen, so, sitting on 20% unrealized gains. However, it is an extremely small % of my stock portfolio relative to dividend income. This is to cure boredom.

@speakup, haha. I prefer to position my portfolio to make new all time highs, than be stubborn on any one stock. I temporarily forgot the declining EPS in BAT when I looked at the chart - in a period of temporary insanity, I bought 1000 shares at 8.5 before it went ex-div. Silly me. Later on the weekend, I realized I made a mistake, hence, the GTC sell order. Hope it triggers before this year end.

Meanwhile, this article explains my investing approach, my goals of investing and provide better context. Today, I was pleasantly surprised that my portfolio made new all time highs again. The size of increase is the largest since I started tracking 8 months ago. Total number of new all time highs is 44 times, averaging 5-6 times per month.

My advise to all is don't be stubborn or loyal to any stock. If we make a mistake, get out. Move on to other stocks. Position your portfolio to make new all time highs.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-11-story-h-159701327-Portfolio_All_Time_High_Profit_Watermark_June_Update

Today, RAPID has broken out above the 94 sen horizontal resistance, to close at RM1. Very nice. My paper loss has shrunk tremendously. At one point, the paper loss was huge, nearly 60% paper loss (1.63 average vs 65.5 sen bottom). After a patient 2nd average down to bring down my average cost to 1.06, at 1, the paper loss has shrunk to only 6%!

I didn't use a huge amount of capital for this 2nd average down, but wait patiently for the chart to show a 2nd high probability setup. This 2nd trade is strictly not an averaging down, but a 2nd trade on its own. It happens to be on the same stock. This is typical - a stock, over its wave down, will sometimes gives us more than 1 high probability setup.

The technically correct way to average down is to take each trade on its own merit. Then, it becomes more efficient to lower the Average Cost price, without consuming a lot of capital.

Nice. GTRONIC +6 sen (+4.14%). Thanks to GTRONIC, LCTITAN, RAPID, HUPSENG and 21 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today! Worth noting that today's gain over yesterday's new all time high then is the largest single day gain since I started manually tracking my all time highs since Oct 2023. Thank-you GTRONIC! Thank-you Mr Market!

Nice. TENAGA made new high since covid low.

Wow, RAPID added +10.5 sen in 1 day (11.73% increase). Thanks to RAPID, LCTITAN, HUPSENG and 22 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Worth noting that today's gain is the largest single day gain since I started tracking manually the porfolio gains since Oct 2023. What a wonderful feeling. Thank-you RAPID, thank-you Mr Market!

Wow, HUPSENG +21 sen (+20.79%) gain in 1 day! Thanks to HUPSENG, LCTITAN and 23 other green stocks offsetting reds today, my portfolio made new all time high again today. Worth mentioning that the increase in all time high today is the largest single day increase ever since I started tracking this manually since Oct 2023. What a wonderful feeling. Thank-you HUPSENG! Thank-you Mr Market!

LCTITAN + 5 sen. Nice. Thanks to LCTITAN and 24 other green stocks offsetting reds, my portfolio made a new all time high again today, notwitstanding KLCI dips slightly. In fact, since I started tracking manually since Oct 2023, today's gain is the highest ever gain from previous high. Thank-you LCTITAN and thank-you Mr Market!

Set sell all at 8.9 GTC limit order. Will stop watching this stock. Cheerio!

Hmmmn ... historically, BAT's quarterly dividend is always double digit sen, but last quarter DPS is 10.0 sen exactly. I wonder if we will see single digit DPS in 2024?

It might not happen in Q2 and Q3, as seasonally, that's BAT's strong EPS and DPS. However, Q4/2024 and Q1/2025 will be the worry.

I am looking for a spike to get out in the short term at a small profit.

Looking at Q1 EPS from 2015 to 2024, it has always been double digit sen. 2024 drop to 10.5 sen (from 85.2 sen back in 2015) is a bad sign, as Q1 has included Vuse and Vape products.

The critical case will be future quarters - will BAT quarterly EPS falls to single digit sen. IN particular, if Q1/2025 EPS is below 10 sen, that means Vuse and Vape strategy has not worked to give a turnaround.

In times like this, watch your Position Sizing. It is the NUMBER 1 rule - you can't afford to have a large position here and then hold for a long time, as EPS keeps falling and falling and falling with each yearly QR report.

Fwiw, I prefer to see my green positions like UOADEV, TAMBUN, LCTITAN (accumulated at RM1), RAPID, PPHB, HUPSENG and many other greens offsetting reds (such as BAT) to help make my portfolio to new all time highs again today. Looking at BAT doesn't give the same feeling.

@williamh, how large is 80 lots as % capital?

Sorry, still no signs of turnaround. Q1 EPS keeps declining every year, and with declining EPS comes declining price:

Year - Q1 EPS
2015 - 85.2 sen
2016 - 61.5 sen
2017 - 41.6 sen
2018 - 33.7 sen
2019 - 31 sen
2020 - 17.8 sen
2021 - 22.1 sen
2022 - 18.3 sen
2023 - 14.1 sen
2024 - 10.5 sen

I don't have a good feeling about my very small, short term, long trade position.

HUPSENG running nicely after frustrating shareholders with flat / declining share price since 2016. That's a long period of frustration. I believe this run can run quite far.

I won't chase, my entry is 67 sen. Didn't have a large position per my entry rules, but this is a nice position that together with other greens, helped my portfolio to make a new all time high again today. Thank-you HUPSENG and thank-you Mr Market!