I think the Junior Doctor needs to see the bigger picture and check his facts before rambling.

For example, B40 ownership of private medical insurance is not significant, for the simple reason that their low household income of 2k per month, 3k per month, 4k - nearly all of that if not more goes to the basic necessities of life like food, petrol, clothes, etc and there's not enough leftover to buy private individual medical insurance. The realities is that if hospitalization is required, they go to government hospitals where the services are free. The segment impacted will be the M40s and the T20s who owns these individual private medical insurance policies.

My contacts in the insurance industry tells me that the financial situation in the medical insurance pools is at crisis levels already. Many of the companies have been losing monies in these insurance pools for nearly 3 years in a row now. They have tried to pass the higher claims costs to customers, but it didn't seem to have worked. The claims outweighs the premiums received, the shareholders have to bear the costs of administration expenses, staff salaries, all operating expenses and pay their distribution commissions ... the shareholders are worried because they are bleeding continuously.

The root cause seems to be the increase in private hospital utilizations and higher prices charged by these private hospitals to the insurance companies. Anecdotes are if you have an insurance policy, these private hospitals will suddenly give you more diagnostic tests, higher end treatment, better quality drugs that costs more because in the past, the insurance companies bear 100% of all of these costs if you have an insurance policy. And these private hospital profits keep rising each year.

And they tell me BNM has tried everything. The private hospitals raise their charges every year. But the insurance companies find it conflicting to do the same thing to their customers every year. Instead, they increase prices only once every few years and as a result, those insurance pools keep gradually losing monies.

The root cause is also the design of the benefits of these policies. Many of the coverages are "as charged". Hospital supplies. Drugs. Operating theatre. etc. The private hospitals and their highly paid doctors have discretion on what choices to recommend to patients. Of course, once the insurer foots 100% of the bill, the patient should get the best, the one with the highest margins to the hospitals.

So, I don't blame BNM at all or the insurance companies. We need to get to the root cause as to why the insurance medical pool keeps losing monies for past years. My friend tells me this won't get better this year, insurance companies are projected to continue to lose monies in their medical pool. Soon, he said we will enter into an insurance crisis.

So, BNM has to intervene and this is their intervention. Totally understand the doctors wants the best for their patient, but what if the best treatment comes at prohibitively expensive cost where the medical insurance pool loses monies and insurers have no choice but to pass on the higher costs back to the customers? Is this sustainable? Why can't MOH cap the treatment costs of these private hospitals which sounds to me like the root cause in the first place? Why must these private hospitals charge so much to patients when they have insurance, vs no insurance?

"So the first rule everyone must learn is to cut lose when you have make a mistake for buying that share at the first place."

Hi @sslee. That is good advice and critical, to always keep your losses small as a trader.

However, it's important to note the distinction between owning high quality businesses vs trading. Both have their places and skill levels required.

For most retailers, the challenge is acquiring trading skills and stay disciplined and have the resilience to keep trading when faced with unexpectedly large losses - e.g. with trading, once we cut loss - and let's say we have a streak of losses 10 loss in a row (which can happen if you are long, have several open positions, and market enters into a correctional phase) and each loss risks 3% capital. So, now the retailer is down 30% capital and because it is a cut loss, he has suffered a permanent loss. Now, you sit in cash with 70% capital, that is well and good but to climb back from 70% to 100% original capital, you now NEED to ACTIVELY find winning trades and for most retailers, that is not an easy thing to do.

Whereas, if the retailer owned MAYBANK, PBBANK, TENAGA and 7 other sound, fundamental stocks, you can really just do nothing when market crashes and by continuing to do nothing, eventually the market values of these sound businesses bounces back and make new highs. For many retailers, this is a more doable thing to do. So, as investors, these are just temporary losses. The thing about temporary losses is that odds are good, the majority of their accounts, given enough time, will keep making new highs.

Whereas the first trader, if he gives up after suffering 30% permanent loss, may in many practical circumstances, gives up. you can't fault that first trader for giving up because it is not easy for ordinary retailer to continue losing monies.

Hi BLee. I presume ICPS = Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares? I think whether ICPS or penny stocks or other instrument much depends on whether it can cause a complete and permanent loss of capital. Whatever we do, we must avoid the multiplication of zero in LWAPs. Or serious losses like 50% loss that requires doubling one's monies actively to make it back up again. Whereas temporary losses are completely different - for temporary losses, the beauty is you don't have to do anything - it will go back up by itself if you have found the superior business.

My new post on the chief problem with warrants in LWAP.
LWAP is Lifetime Wealth Accumulation Plan.
Simply put, warrants are great for leverage, have fund to lose all monies bet, but in my view, has no place in serious LWAP.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-21-story-h-156155492-The_Problem_with_Warrants_in_LWAP

When it comes to a lifetime wealth accumulation plan, your plan has to be for a lifetime. Not 1 or 2 years. Not even 5 or 10 years. LIFETIME.

So, your strategy, over your lifetime may start you off with 4 digit capital - we all start from the same place.

But over long periods of time, especially when you are young, your 4 digit will eventually grow with savings to 5 digit. Then, 6 digit. Then 7 digit. And if you are disciplined throughout your life, even 8 digit is possible.

So, your wealth accumulation strategy - over LIFETIME - must avoid permanent loss of capital.

This is the kind of advice I never got when I was younger. I hope everyone will benefit from this advise.

This is why I value Buffett's comment about avoiding derivatives.

His point is that mathematically, when you multiply 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x ..... x 0 - the answer is zero. It doesn't matter how many times in the past that you've doubled your monies. Eventually, one day, you will suffer permanent loss of capital and you will lose it all.

There's really no future in that kind of trading. It's not about money management or position sizing, it's literally no future. Why waste precious limited time trying to learn how to trade derivatives when there's no future in it?

Someone told me it's my "money management" fault. Why did I bet 6 digits at the height? Why not? I had successful warrant trades that accumulated to that much?

The alternative I was told is to just keep the account at a fixed value - say RM10,000.

But my question is - if you keep trading every year at RM10,000, how is that going to make you rich over the long term?

Say many years you make 100%. That's great. But let say 5 years later, you lose it all - all 10k. Then what? Stop playing warrants forever?

Then, where's the future in that?

"I made some money in 2006/07 from Perstima warrant and Bonia warrant. Perstima warrant went up two to three times within a year or so but Bonia warrant was spectacular. It went up over 20 times within about two years. "

@prudentinvestor, for bragging rights, I once made more than 50 times in 1 trade decades ago. Even with that kind of win, I still lose monies net net on warrants since inception. The problem is at the later stages, with such huge wins, I didn't stop. I was looking for sustainable way and I keep repeating and repeating what I thought worked much better and the longer you keep playing, eventually, it'll catch up with you and I gave back all the 6 digit gains I had to market. Net Net, I lose monies since inception and that's not counting the tens of thousands of hours I put into the effort.

Contrast my active stock trading and my passive investing. The former pays little, the latter pays the most for hours spent basically doing nothing. As we get older, we value inactivity to make the most monies.

Whereas if you buy a good quality high dividend stocks like most banks - even if the stock market crashes 50%, your loss is only temporary. It's not a permanent loss. If the underlying business is intact, it will keep making profits, pay dividends to you and eventually, the stock price will recover and grow and keep making new highs.

Hence, it's not a permanent loss of capital, just temporary.

Temporary losses complies with Buffet's rule no 1.

Buffett's rule no 1 is "Never lose money". He means permanent loss of capital. Unfortunately, buying warrants often (80% of the time or more) causes permanent loss of capital.

Buffett is my go to role model to grow monies from 5 digit to 6 digit to 7 digit to 8 digit.
During his formative years (long before he sold puts on S&P500 when he have billions - that's 10 digits or more), he never touched derivatives. He didn't need derivatives during this phase.

Small retailers who thinks they can do better than Buffett will, unfortunately, have a sad ending eventually, if they keep doing this.

The reason Buffett can grow from his account values for many decades is because what he does is sustainable over very long periods of time, using large amounts of capital. Whereas warrants are not sustainable over long periods of time and not suitable for large amounts of capital. In my book, no place for me, and no future for me.

And for long term wealth accumulation - warrants have no future. If you aspire to grow your trading account from 10k to 100k and one day to 1 million and more, warrants can't get you there because you can never bet huge amounts. Basically, you have to trade extremely small if you have a 7 digit account and you don't need to.

Derivatives are not investments - they are "side bets" and the danger is when the side bets get too big. The end result to retailers is almost always catastrophic in the long run.

Winning warrant trades making 100% or 1000% gain in that trade only makes it worse in the long run. It's a hard concept to understand, until you have gained "experience" later.

The best warrant experience is to immediately lose small and then not touching it.

To me, the reason most warrant buyers lose monies is because they don't know what should be the right price to pay.
It's not about the break-even formula - that's very easy before transaction costs.
The issue at the heart is the "premium" - the question is how much should the premium be.
None of the retailers have actually worked on the proper option pricing model, so, retailers don't really know the answer. Plus they haven't got all the data. And in zero-sum games, the guy without the information is gambling. The other side on the other hand has all the advantages. It's a terrible game to play.

In short, the warrant price may "looks cheap" (a few sen) but retailers just don't know how to value them, and almost always, they will have overpaid for that.

I don't follow this stock, but someone led me to here. Looks like last year's IPO of 63 sen was badly priced - it should have been higher, the company should have received a much larger amount of working capital - this is bad judgement, real $$$ business opportunity lost.

So far, we've seen the 87 sen bottom this year. The company has a short listed reporting history. Most recent reported Q4 profit is low, at RM1.6 million. At RM1.47, the market cap is RM941 million, the T4Q PE is 60 times, another thing to watch out for.

All stocks have risks. The risks with IPO is that typically the initial earnings tend to be high before it finds reality and drops. Looks like we've seen that happening in most recent quarter Q4.

Overall, directors have been net sellers (doing both acquisition and selling). That's a less healthy sign.

I have no position and will pass this trade from part business owner perspective. The price action is volatile, making this an interesting potential trade - if I buy, I will definitely sell for a profit. If you had bought and if price falls, don't average down too much because there's better trading opportunities.

Willtolive, it's been a laggard, odds are still a laggard by September ex-div date, which is good for those wanting to accumulate, because this is a wonderful business. I expect PBBANK to provide me with rising passive income dividends in the future.

The weekly and daily candle charts here - it explains better.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-21-story-h-156158217-PBBANK_Updated_Chart

Noting September is usually a dividend month. I'll be happy with the 9 sen, like last year.
Sorry, but personally, my base case is not to expect 4.50 this year (unless KLCI breaks out strongly), due to the downtrend line resistance currently lower than 4.50. My base case is still to expect PBBANK to stay in consolidation model this year. As I'm not here for its price gain, this is not so important to me.

@BlackDiamond, will mark your words 4.50 in September 😀.
However, chart wise, we may not be completely out of the woods yet. There's 2 opening gaps on 9 Jul and 18 Jul and maybe 50/50 chance price might want to retest 4.06 say sometime this year? If I am looking to add more PBBANK, I will just key in a GTC order to buy at 4.07 and just check once a month to see if it needs to be refreshed. With luck, that 50% chance of getting filled turns out to be filled. Good luck!

Guys, avoid warrants. There's really no future for this type of instruments. If your capital is too small to buy the mother shares, then, either save up, put the monies in EPF/FD, or just go and buy lottery tickets or go to the Casino because your long term odds of winning are still better than winning at warrants. Know who you are betting against too, because this is a zero-sum, 2-party game where for you to win, the other side must lose, and the other side almost never lose in the course of every financial year, because their yearly fat bonuses depends on them winning.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-21-story-h-156158219-RHBBANK_Should_you_buy_the_C53_warrant

Here's some of my views - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-20-story-h-156160082-RAPID_Tea_leaf_reading_update.

Happy Hunting!

RAPID tea leaves say that it has entered into a sideways box consolidation zone ranging from 81 sen to 88.5 sen, established since 27 June.

The longer it stays in this sideways box consolidation zone, the stronger the breakout move will be - either upside (which I suspect is the majority odds) or downside (not an impossible scenario).

I am looking to add near 81.5 sen.
Depending on how long is this box consolidation zone, if it breaks out above 89 sen, I would not take profit so fast.

The height of this box is too small to take profit at 87.5 sen. So, do nothing whilst it consolidates.

There is good chance the "box" will be "redefined" - e.g. price stretching it a little bit, and then stay consolidating.

The trading strategy is a simple one - wait for it to consolidate for a long period of time, because the longer it consolidates, the greater the subsequent breakout.

So, the longer price ding dong and go nowhere, the more excited I will become later.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/07/09/high-court-rules-kedah039s-ban-on-gaming-licences-unconstitutional. Just saw this. Interesting that on 9 July, price bounced up but didn't break out. However, yesterday 17 July, price finally broke out ... I wonder why ...

Here are my views on my position trade price targets for MAGNUM. And some sharing of thoughts on what should be a good Trading Plan, and how to be a successful trader. My plan is so simple that even a child can execute.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-18-story-h-156841555-MAGNUM_Position_Trade_Update

Mercury Securities Research today published a trading idea on MAGNUM, which unfortunately doesn't resonate with me. They summarized as follows:

Entry – RM-1.27 – RM1.28
Stop Loss – RM1.16
Target Price – RM1.31 – RM1.41

Why it doesn't resonate is because the win is so small if correct: 1.31 - 1.28 = 3 sen. That is a tiny tiny profit.
And if it dips back down to 1.16, the loss = 1.28 - 1.16 = 12 sen. Add commissions and the loss is so much bigger than profits.

This type of trading is a sure recipee for failure and shrinking your account due to high commissions.

In Bursa, buying breakouts like this after today's big move is often too late, except on the mania stages where what goes high keeps rising even higher. But we are not in the mania environment - look around you and most stocks are still "normal" - today's KLCI barely makes a point. Since we are not in a mania environment, odds are high that after breakouts, the next few days move tend to be weaker and consolidating. So, important to read the market environment, the sector, the securities itself if trading short term.

For me, much easier to position trade i.e. give yourself a long time like 1 to 17 months to win. This minimizes commissions and maximizes profits.

Magnum nice ... 1.28 close.
On 20 May, I posted here that I took a Position Trade by chasing to buy MAGNUM at 1.16.
Since I posted, MAGNUM rise and fell below my entry price.
It fell as low as 1.10.
You are sure to get at 1.11 filled.
If you did, then, you will be happy, as MAGNUM closed 1.28. That's nearly +16% gain in less than 2 months.
For your reading pleasure.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-20-story-h-161546734-Position_Trading_Idea_MAGNUM

But price gains is irrelevant to me. My primary goal is to own as much as I can at as cheap a price in order to build a future passive income stream to prepare for my future retirement where the income stream will keep growing each year, and if possible, as a legacy to pass on to my children one day. The only time I will consider selling is when it is in its "euphoric zone", i.e. really really new highs near the peak of the bull market mania (which is a long way away).

Now, if price breaks above 4.29, then, the recent fall below RM4 was a bear trap, i.e. above 4.29, this is a bullish setup suggesting higher prices. Bears will now press PBBANK very, very hard to make sure it doesn't go up above 4.29 because if it does, they've lost the battle.

For the record, in this recent fall to briefly below RM4, it didn't go to 3.9. The lowest was RM3.98. It's a pity my queue to add more at 3.98 was not filled, probably because too many queues ahead of me at 3.98.

I followed my plan as I blogged on 24 May as well as posted comments much earlier.
My plan then, and is still now is the lower PBBANK goes, the more I added, and the lower it goes the more I added again. Now, every single buy that I did in PBBANK is in green. And it will pay me growing dividends in years to come. What a wonderful stock!

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805766-PBBANK_I_added_at_4_18

@greentrade, nothing is certain in life, even thought the odds here are higher than normal. Warrants has very high adverse impact if we are wrong - e.g. it could go to zero. Whereas buying the mother stock, with 7% dividend yield, is very safe if we are wrong. If one's entry price is low, it's hard to lose 7% in price, but after 1 year, after collecting the 7% dividend, you already made money. My entry price is 5.50, after dividend is 5.30 and I know in a years time, it will drop to 4.90 after 40 sen dividend and keeps dropping every year. So, this is very low risk to me, and I can invest sizeable amount to earn a decent lifetime passive income.

@prudentinvestor, 5.70 is expected per my chart in my article. Be patient, give yourself 6-12 months and odds are good a breakout will occur by then or well before then. In the mean time, 7% dividend yield is nice, and to meet my investment objective of 9% per annum, this is almost a certainty if one has a longer time horizon like several years. It's not gambling for me, I am highly diversified.

What's your investment objective? I blogged about this topic here - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-16-story-h-156904919-What_is_your_Investment_Objective.

Happy reading, and enjoy life. I hate watching price tickers daily.

Nice strong move up the past 3 days, hitting resistance on the downtrend line indicated.
Will we see a breakout soon or within the next few months?
Either way, the counter paid 40 sen DPS. At 5.50, that's 7% per annum dividend yield and very attractive.
40 sen is still very affordable relative to higher EPS.
I am already fully positioned prior to the past 3 days strong move up from 5.53 to 5.70.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-16-story-h-156935603-RHBBANK_Will_we_see_a_breakout_soon

IF GENM breaks above 2.68, we will be testing 2.85-2.90 over the next 1-3 months.
I followed my plan to buy at 2.50 which was duly executed 5 days ago.
I am now queueing to sell a significant % of my holdings near that range as I think it will continue to "ding dong" in the declining triangle that may converge in say 2026 before it breaks upwards.
I shared this idea over a month ago below.

Post #1
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-06-12-story-h-159700553-GENM_queue_to_buy_at_2_50

Post #2
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-06-story-h-157794984-GENM_Entering_Accumulation_Zone

Buy at 2.50 filled. Continue with the accumulation plan at lower zones and prices.

It's been nearly 4 weeks since I last posted on GENM and here.
My GTC Buy Limit order at 2.50 is about to expire as it has not yet been triggered. I will refresh that order this weekend and then forget about it.
My actual accumulation is more refined - I blog about it here.
I also share my thoughts on multiple time-frames on Daily, Weekly and Monthly candle. This is just a standard basic "Triple Screening" technique first popularized by Alexander Elder, but quite effective to give a good view across several time-frames.
My goal is modest. My position size is modest because of better ideas. However, GENM is very liquid, hence, sharing it here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-06-story-h-157794984-GENM_Entering_Accumulation_Zone

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-04-story-h-157859248-UMC_here_s_what_I_see

Sharing my personal trade reflections and my simple thoughts on where it might go next. https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-03-story-h-157859253-HUPSENG_Trade_Reflections_and_Where_to_next

Nice. HUPSENG hit 1.28 to take out my partial GTC Sell order. I originally bought HUPSENG at 67.7 sen average nearly 1.5 years ago on average. Along with 2 prior partial profit take, my IRR is now 46.5% per annum. I trade very small, I now own a low 5 digit holding that is very nearly cost free, paid for by my partial profit takes. Thank-you Mr Market and thank-you HUPSENG!

Hello Bullish.
I didn't know if it will limit up, but my 2nd trade buys between 67-69.5 sen was sold in 3 stages at 88 sen, 96 sen and RM1.06 to lock in the profit from the 2nd trade, to lower my average price down. I felt majority odds after hitting my average price of RM1.06 that it will come back down - just a sense that turns out right.

So, RAPID is trading at 82.5 sen as I write this. So, I'm expecting 81 sen swing low to break (majority odds) and if so, will be looking to buy back at the "right" spot at a lower price (which I don't know yet as the idea hasn't jumped out at me yet). Will probably take a few swings to know. No rush for me, have plenty of time (months).

Posted a chart here - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-03-story-h-157889906-EVERGRN_Trading_Stock. The resistance are pretty obvious.

If it breaks above 45 sen convincingly, I think we wont see 30 sen for a very long time to come.

Nice move today for a trading stock. My partial GTC sell order at 39.5 sen was filled but maybe a bit too early but it lowered my average cost down to 24 sen now. Will enjoy the ride up to 45 sen next.

My average buy price is 1.00. TSH is a trading stock for me. My partial GTC Sell order today at 1.24 was filled, to lower my average cost down to 92 sen. The 1.17-1.20 zone looks important to hold during the coming retracement. If it closes below this, then, I intend to be patient and wait for it to go lower before buying back what's sold.

My GTC sell order at 1.38 entered some time ago was executed today automatically without watching.
Average buy period is 1.31 years. 3 rounds of buys and sells and still hold a sizeable position. 41.1% per annum IRR.

I blogged about it here - https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-07-02-story-h-157890093-ANNJOO_Do_less_earn_more.

I bought at 19 sen and 19.5 sen for trading. Took partial profit at 23.5 sen to bring down my average entry price to 17.5 sen. Let's see if this counter can really run to 30 sen ... speculative trade, not a dividend stock.

Haven't followed this counter, but on 7 Sep 2023, I mentioned I sold into strength and not to chase and wait for it to retrace. I followed my advice and bought back at 30 sen. Now still holding at 39 sen with +30% gain in less than a year. Nice. Let's see how high this one can go on its 2nd leg up. Pure technical speculative play, not a dividend stock.

PBBANK is so liquid, I can publicly announce my plans BEFORE hand and it has no impact to my trade executions. However, other stocks I can't announce, as liquidity is lower.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/DividendGuy67/2024-05-24-story-h-160805766-PBBANK_I_added_at_4_18.

As shown in the chart, it hasn't reached the bottom line yet. As price falls, the odds increases that it will touch the bottom uptrend line. And if it keeps falling, odds increases that it will fall BELOW that long term uptrend line temporarily. I am spreading my buys to allow for all these possibilities, whilst maintaining position sizing. Add SLOWLY at lower prices or do nothing until it reaches the bottom of that uptrend line.

Remember to watch your position size - don't be greedy. I'm still quite far from 5% capital for this holding, so, welcome to add at lower prices in months to come via GTC Buy Limit orders i.e. no need to watch the market.

My GTC Buy Fill order at RM4 was filled. Slowly queuing and adding at lower prices, including below RM4. Plenty of time to accumulate as price is unlikely to run up for months. 19 sen dividend is likely to rise in years to come. 19 sen / RM4 ~ 4.8% dividend yield, what's not to like. Lower prices are coming and that's great news for long term accumulators for retirement passive income for life later.