Guys, there is a new particleboard and RTA being mentioned in the Hong Leong research papers. Any idea when those are supposed to go live?

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5507233

Europe expansion incoming?

Diversification (or diworsification?) into the disposable food packaging industry (paper and plastic) Good or bad move?

Look, AhmadZaki is correct. He may or may not be working for MMHE, doesn't matter. They simply do not have many fabrication-related jobs. Yard utilization is below 50%.

But that's the beauty of it. All MMHE needs is one major contract win, and everything changes. The sell queue is very thin, and very quickly the price will get bid up. Bokor alone is not enough, but Bokor + another big win will see them through the next 3-5 years handsomely.

Question is...when do they get another big win? There is Kasawari from Petronas and Pegaga from Mubadala...the Pegaga tender has already been sent out to only TWO companies - MMHE and Sapura Energy. It's worth almost RM1bil and will be given out at year end. The way I look at it, MMHE is in a much better situation to get Pegaga than Sapura Energy. But even let's say it is a toss-up...the market is not pricing this enough into the share price.

The other thing...MMHE has a net cash of around RM680mil. Market cap is RM1120mil. That means there is RM0.425 net cash per share. There is basically zero long-term debt.

And finally, MMHE has received approval from the board to construct the third dry dock. Completion is estimated in 2020. Amount set aside for this major exercise is RM400mil.

To me, this company is in a heavy downcycle. I CANNOT KNOW for sure when the turnaround will begin. But the turnaround will come, and when it does, the share price will re-rate very quickly. It is Petronas' in-house heavy engineering subsidiary.

What matters is:

1) Buy at the right price. I deemed 0.5X BV to be a decent entry price. Now it falls further? Time to think about buying more!

2) Have a long-term view and long holding period. I'm prepared to hold it for 5 years. I don't know if it will be worth more than my entry price in 12 months...but in 5 years? I am almost certain about it.

3) Don't buy on margin and have holding power. Don't invest into this company if you need to withdraw your investment within 3 years...you could well likely withdraw losses and miss out on the ensuing gains.

I've decided...I'm going in again on Monday (or sometime in the week). I believe the price doesn't reflect the value fairly. I bought at 0.605, 0.630 and now would be around 0.690-0.695. I simply can't find anything to buy in the marker that I can be certain of its value as I am of Armada.

Joetay, I bought Parkson under the assumption that if they themselves cannot transform, they will sell out. Not impossible. They have prime real estate that a online superpower can make very good use of. Now this is called an "asset play" strategy, and should only be done sparingly.

Minggu depan, ayuh kita kearah RM1.80.

Does anyone have access to the full RHB MMHE report?

All it needs is a Mubadala or Hess or a major Petronas award and this thing will kick into gear in no time. Worth collecting, but make sure you don't buy on margin as you need to have holding/staying power.

Guys, don't talk nonsense lah. NTA was RM1.58 last quarter, fall to RM1.57 this quarter. The RM2.11/2.25 reported on Bursa is a TYPO likely referring only to total assets.

Got a feeling this one engine will start again tomorrow, up to RM3.40 then on to RM3.60 approaching the quarter results. We should have NP of RM500mil, ROE of 8.5%. Extrapolated full year ROE should be easily 30%, and the stock is trading at merely 1.8X BV. So lots of room to run in that regards. Market "does not believe" the ROE, simply because they expect AA's profitability/growth to be unsustainable, but in these prolonged low oil price environment...it might make AA a deeply undervalued play. If you assume ROE next year to also be >25%, then P/BV should catch up to 2.5X. We could see a further 50% upside from these levels (excluding AAC).

Also, does anyone know how many more ESOS are outstanding? I feel like there is so much dilution going on with the ESOS being exercised. Will it come to an end soon or still many unexercised ESOS outstanding?

Guys, the Vietnam plant was due to be operational in Q1 FY 2018 right? So it should be between now and October? Any idea how far along are they in constructing the plant? What about the Johor fabric mill? Anyone did a site visit to see if progress is coming along for a Q2 FY2018 (Nov 17 - Jan 18) startup?

JFAPEX: "We have imputed the contribution of the mushroom cultivation business into our earnings forecast whilst yet to factor in the earnings from the new RTA plant."

Man these guys are jokers. To me the mushroom is less certain than the RTA expansion. Either way that means their 2018 revenue/profit forecast is conservative by about 10% respectively.

To me PRA will report THE WORST QUARTER EVER, with lots and lots of impairment. Parkson in SEA is a gone case. But China, still have hope, due to their incredibly valuable fixed assets. Also their China operations is more robust than SEA...at least there can shop online, for example, even if it is very primitive. I won't discount that China will continue and improve on its profitability compared to previous quarter.

Problem is PRA reports before PRGL, stock might fall into 40sen territory by then. S@&%#!

@PN17player, I don't think this investment is for you. Don't bring suey here!!!

PS: J/k, if you know what I mean... :)

Current BV is RM0.96, so 1.0X BV is RM0.96. BV means book value, i.e. the sum of all assets minus off all liabilities.

Btw, I can sense a good Q2, so very soon (by mid of next week) expect some fireworks as people start pushing this towards RM0.80.

Property counters overheated this year on Bursa because abalysts at the start of the year said the industry will bottom out by mid 2017. Now, they say they were wrong and have deferred the bottom to mid 2018 at the very least. So all property counters have basically been falling these past few weeks as reality hits investors that things are not yet improving...in fact things are still getting worse in the sector.

Best to wait for a good opportunity to pounce when the sector has completed its bottoming out process. By then Tambun should be RM1.10-RM1.25.

According to the press release, MMHE secured RM270mil of new contracts this quarter, excluding Bokor. I think this is a positive development. They need one major RM1bil contract and multiple minor contracts amounting to RM500mil to return to their past glory days.

http://www.mhb.com.my/resource/file/press-release/pr03-aug-2017.pdf

Kilrathi, you buy when something is cheap. Is 0.45X B/V not cheap for the biggest heavy-duty O&G fabricator in Malaysia that also happens to be within the Petronas group of companies? Add to that, unlike most other O&G companies it has got a VERY, very healthy balance sheet, with a current ratio of 1.8X. Heck, it is even in a net cash situation, with practically zero debt and an approved RM1bil sukuk programme.

To me, MMHE was cheap at RM0.80, when it hit 0.5X B/V. I bought at RM0.775. I will now probably top up at RM0.70 or even wait for RM0.65 if I don't see this going anywhere.

All this needs is another major contract win. Could be Petronas' Kasawari. Could be Mubadala's Pegaga. It should also get multiple new FPSO conversion contracts from MISC.

To me, oil majors in Malaysian waters NEED to restart major exploration activities, sooner rather than later. Oil will stay within $45-$55. Once those activities restart, MMHE will be well suited to benefit from EPCIC work. Now, when will that happen? Nobody knows. But my analysis tells me the downside risk here is limited, hence I bought it and that's why I will stick with it and continue buying as it goes lower still.

Stronger loads, cheaper fuel cost, YoY passenger growth > capacity expansion...doesn't this mean we will have a blockbuster Q2?

Is this positive news or not? http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/08/03/airasia-group-q2-load-factor-higher-at-88pct/

Why not being reflected in the share price?

Need to see what kind of projects they have secured in the past three months, that's the share price driver. Profitability for this year is a goner (i.e. no go). One positive is that they have improved on their current ratio even in these trying times.

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=196753&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

Just slow and steady is ok already. Now gonna pull back a bit as it heated up.

When is the next dividend announced? I thought every quarter have a dividend, no?

HLIB also had a comprehensive coverage. Refer to the initiation report. Initiation reports will always have the full meat, subsequent company updates or quarterly result updates are just one page write ups with two pages of forecasted figures.

Friends, any idea what the launch pipeline looks like for 2018? There are 3 projects for launch in 2017 with GDV of RM170mil, I wonder if 2018 will be higher?

People who buy a stock for dividend, for short or mid term, are idiots. They're likely to lose more in the share price depreciating. Never understand this faullty logic lah.

Waits at 1.12

Patience my friends, this one engine needs to start yet.

Nothing brewing, people just getting in on good valuations.

Still think this has room to run. Will start thinking about selling only at RM1.85 levels. Till then we should be safe.

@hng33, don't believe such crap lah. Retailers should rightfully feel cheated because Lotte downplayed the impact of the plant shutdown.

How come not a single IB is covering Lotte? Am I missing something?

I mean let's be honest, LCT profit drop can be at least partially, if not largely, be attributed to a one-off incident. It's selling below book, and in a "normal" year it should easily get ROE > 10%. I think at these price levels, if you're in for the long-term...it's a good buy. I will try to wait for RM3.80, so that there's an even better margin of safety and better-still potential gains.

Guys, were Lotte hell-bent to list no matter what due to this? Is it even legal? They know if they delayed the listing, the Q2 results would be out and it would have severely hampered their promotion of the stock. Is that a reason why they pulled out all stops and made sure they got listed? Are the IBs complicit in this? Is it legal?

Anyway, RM3.8 sounds like a nice entry price from a value perspective.

Guys, you're missing the point. Hevea isn't going into a totally 100% different business with the fungi mushroom project.

They ALREADY have the necessary raw products needed to manufacture/cultivate the fungi - i.e. the sawdust, which is a USELESS by-product. So why not put that USELESS sawdust to good use in the fungi manufacturing process?

It's risky, and it will likely not live up to lofty expectations of certain people, but to me it will be a net value add with respectable profit margins, simply because a large part of the raw material cost will be effectively FREE for Hevea.

As a shareholder, you are a business owner. As long as your questions and enquiries are within reason, they warrant a response.

ED will reply, no matter how small or big, as long as you are a shareholder.

In fact you will be surprised how accomodating IR of small/mid caps are. I have gotten replies and clarifications not in the public domain by getting in touch with the IR of Bumi Armada, Ikhmas Jaya and Parkson. ES Ceramics is the only one where the ED replies, possibly because it is a smaller company.

Now this is something I can agree with.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/28/leasing-unit-price-to-be-finalise-next-month/

AA plans to spin-off MAA as its own entity. Kinda like GenM and GenT.

I think ES Ceramics is happy where they are, and may not feel that the costs justify the transfer just yet. Maybe they want to wait to get bigger, or maybe they foresee further short-term challenges that might "diminish" their main board listing.

All I can say is, the ED replied to me last night that after the board deliberated on the matter, they decided not to proceed with the transfer listing for the moment due to cost considerations.

Yeah ED has also confirmed that there will be no main board transfer due to cost considerations.

He will only answer if you are a shareholder obviously. I have contacted him a few times since March.

@Jon, OPCF can be easily achieved at RM1.5-2.0bil. Look at the details. The structure of the loans are such that they will be paid off as the BBC come in. Loan for Claire is fully repaid, the bulk of loans are from their four new projects.

Debt is not an issue at all now given that cashflows are going to be coming in stable and conservative impairments had been made at the end of Q4 2016. Alas, let's just wait and see how this turns out. Armada was my best performer in my portfolio...now just middling around. But I know it's undervalued, O&G is at a cyclical low, and Armada has a firm orderbook of RM25bil. Will hold till the share price hits 1.0x B/V at the very least.

I'm also positive for the company long-term, but now brace yourself for ~RM0.35.

Some positives:

1) Considerably higher CAPEX than in previous quarters. Might pay off in the near future if this is further automation

2) Book value is growing at a good pace. YoY B/V has grown from RM0.2075 to RM0.2439. This is a 17.5% growth, which is admirable

3) Mainboard listing will likely happen now that ESC has met the profitability criteria

Well, guess I'm stuck with this now. At least main board listing to look forward to.

I would say acceptable results. Nothing great, but not bad either. Market may have priced in the worst case scenario, which this isn't, so price may trend higher tomorrow onwards.

Lol what just happened/...

Q out eithier today, tmrw or Monday. Let's hope it is decent enough! :)

@bizzy, I'm still here. The performance does confound me though. The biggest risks are out of the way. Why the hell are we trending down? To me, this is just the market being the market. Sadly between my current position in Armada and in MMHE, I have too high exposure to the O&G industry to top up more. But if it drops to RM0.65 levels again...then sure!

@luke, sometimes big sells queue so someone else notices them and buys at the market price. If they sell all 1.1mil shares to the market directly, the price would drop and they'd lose money while liquidating their position.