In my post above (above Chanyut's post), I meant "first" oil, not "full" oil.

From Q2 actually, since we will likely see RMxx million reversed (previously conservatively written down as impairment payment for Kraken delivery failure). In Q3 it should start earning 50-80% of its bare-boat charter rate, and it should hit 100% by Q4.

Just based on pure gut feelings, I think it should be a good quarter, almost like last year or even surpass it. Hopefully I can then exit at or above my entry price of RM0.465. Otherwise I just have to hold it longer.

Glove production is at the highest levels ever in Malaysia, so I will be very surprised if Esceramics is not able to capture this surge in their topline and bottomline.

Can anyone please kindly share the UOB Kay Hian research reports on Ekovest? The one on i3KLSE is just a small brief, not the full report.

Appreciate it, many thanks. Will be useful to everyone here to re-orient themselves with the bigger picture.

Since UOB Kay Hian is the only one covering Ekovest (that I know of) and their full report is unavailable on KLSE, can you share it with the rest of us here? Would be an interesting read to see how they derive a price of RM1.5x and we are just trading at RM1.00 now.

If you read analyst reports, the rally in the Bursa property stocks (based on KL Property Index) is unjustified/premature given that the property market slowdown is due to extend into mid 2018 at the earliest. Initially at the end of last year analysts were saying that the bottom/through will be this year, hence that led to buying interest in property stocks. However, it is now clear that we have NOT hit the bottom yet...the slowdown will persist till mid 2018 at the earliest, maybe even extend into 2019.

Given that, I fully expect most property stocks to slowly recede 10-15% from their current levels.

Tambun is maybe a unique stock cause it has full exposure to Penang, very high ROEs in spite of the downturn, and an extremely healthy balance sheet with the catalyst of significant landbanking exercises in the near term. But still...unless there are any catalysts, and especially if revenue/profits drop off a cliff like Hua Yang, it's best to wait a while more, let the property stocks drop, and then get in.

Initially my target was to come in at RM1.42, but now given what I have been reading and listening to people talk, I will only buy Tambun at ~RM1.25. Patience is a virtue. Never rush unless you are certain of a near term catalyst to drive the share price higher.

Skliew, EPF is not a god. They were selling Bumi Armada at 0.60 and buying at 0.80. They don't have any more information than you and I do (generally). They do not get insider information. They have one annual meeting with management, that's it. Everything else they read in the media, read from sell-side analyst recommendations, and do their own in-house buy side research. They attend AGM. They scrutinize financials.

EPF returns are generally not great, heck they actually lag the market returns in aggregate. So WhyTF are you looking at EPF for guidance? To comfort yourself?

Also the director buying may be a good sign...but go see Tan Chong Motors...the director has been buying for FOUR YEARS and all the while the stock price has trended downwards. The Prlexus director probably "buys" more shares when he exercises his ESOS, this may just be a small vote of confidence in his company to the market.

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All I am saying is, Prolexus may be a good buy at these levels, but don't try to use EPF as a justification that buying in now is good. They're on average the worst fund manager in Malaysia (compared to PNB and all the unit trust companies).

Tender results will out in Q4 or Q1 next year. 4th FPSO (Kraken) already reach full oil, should reach full commissioning within 3 months.

Trouble is Tony is a shady sneaky fellow lah. Can't trust his words anymore. Like a conman attitude he have.

I got in at 0.775 (right at close!). Wish me luck. I think it's a good buy, now let's see how it pans out over the coming months/years. My holding period/investment horizon for MMHE is 3-5 years, with a target to double/triple my invested capital.

Walao, don't lah go see cotton price etc. You never read Buffet/Lynch/Graham is it?

Something doesn't feel right though, very high volume. What's causing the selling?

Cut loss is for the weak, I buy shares where if they drop I double down...haha ;)

Really just @#@$@!!!!!! What the heck man AA. You were meant to be going up, not go down! (Read in Obi Wan's voice)

Tony is a shady snake-oil salesman. I still keep a bit of AA, but will jump when the price trends back up again.

Very fishy lo, UOB say this is the best stock to buy in 2nd half with TP of RM1.5x, but the stock kept felling downs. If this trends lower to RM0.85-RM0.90 might be a good buy. For now don't fight the current, just submit to it and let the stock felling downs some more!

Yeah damn man liquidity has dried up, not just Armada but so many other counters that I am monitoring!

Walao, Armada till 10.26am just have 6 lots traded (at open). No trades between open and 10.26am...new record? Usually this counter have some noise.

LOL dude that's how you calculate intrinsic value? Pluck some figure out of your back and peg EV/EBIT at 10 and PE at 12? Damn that's sad.

Specter I like your positive attitude, but please be sensible. 40% net margins are ridiculous. It's most probably not going to be achieved anytime soon. Be happy with a 10% net margin in the first few years.

As an investor, you should dissect management views carefully. They're obviously going to sell you the best version of their vision...where in reality the targets usually fall short.

I'm a Hevea investor, but I'm well grounded and don't believe such baseless numbers.

Which means the current P/NTA (i.e. P/BV) is at 0.5X....which is not that great. You can buy better O&G related companies with much healthier balance sheets at that valuation, such as MMHE (currently selling at 0.49X P/BV).

Just want to share here. Always look at the numbers for yourself to see if they match up.

Incorrect calculation:

Total Assets: RM4,.496bil
Total Liabilities: RM2.108bil
# Shares Outstanding: 2.156bil
NTA = (A - L)/(NOSH) = (4.496bil - 2.108bil)/(2.156bil) = RM1.11/share

Correct calculation:

Total Assets: RM4.496bil
Total Intangible Assets: Goodwill + "Other Intangible Assets" = RM1.395bil
Total Tangible Assets: RM4.496bil - RM1.395bil = RM3.101bil
Total Liabilities: RM2.108bil
# Shares Outstanding: 2.156bil
NTA = (TA - L)/(NOSH) = (3.101bil - 2.108bil)/(2.156bil) = RM0.46/share

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THIS IS A VERY BIG DIFFERENCE. Do not follow i3Investor in this case, for the NTA calculation does not discount the intangible balance sheet assets.

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PS: NTA means Net TANGIBLE Assets

Your head NTA is RM1.11!!! You need to minus RM1.4bil from non current assets to get NTA since there is RM900mil goodwill and RM500mil "other intangible assets".

Therefore NTA is actually only at RM0.46 per share! Do the calculation yourself lah, don't just talk nonsense.

That buy queue is so thin...worries me! Sell queue pulak so strong...

kilrathi, I have moved the goalpost down though, queued at 0.76 for now (this whole week actually, tomorrow it might hit that). If 0.76 is not hit, then I will re-analyze over the weekend and re-queue on Monday for the week ahead.

Might be a good contrarian play to put in 5% of your portfolio to UMWOG at these levels (plus subscribe to RI). Seems a bit like oversold.

Are UMWOG shares deposited on Tuesday or Wednesday? What "payment" does you refers to sir?

Has UMW already given out the UMWOG shares to its shareholders? If not means, then Susah loh. Rights issue might have to be scrapped or done at a lower price. Bad to worse.

So what's going on here? Why continually drop recently? What has changed? What am I missing? Serious discussion please.

WTF buy rate at 94% with 12,500 lots done!! I have rarely seen this except in cases where there is very positive newsflow!

Can't you read?

"The Board of AFC wishes to inform that Bursa Securities had, vide its letter dated 21 June 2017, approved a lower PSS of 24.14% pursuant to Paragraph 8.02(1) of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Securities."

They don't have to rectify anymore, Bursa has approved the lower spread. Take note in March the spread was at 22.5%, so AsiaFile has improved in that regards. AmanahRaya/PNB selling every other day has helped.

Walao eh...some people ahh....

Sell queue is thin. This will bounce back easily tomorrow if the buyers return after flushing out the short term players.

Joetay, respectfully disagree. PRGL is not a penny stock in any definition. It has a market cap of HKD3.5+ bil. It's majority shareholder is PHB, stable at 53.5% shareholding. I don't disagree, might be some hanky panky going on, but PRGL is far from a penny stock. It is an actual company, and unlike the companies listed in that article it is trading below its book value.

What a shame, not one soul sold yesterday! :(

Not sure what's going on, PRGL at $1.50. Seems pretty fishy...I don't know.

Up 8 cents PRGL...what's going on? https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/3368:HK

If you have read Benjamin Graham, you know well enough to stay away from "hot issues". Lotte Chem Titan was overpriced from the first day, and it is overpriced today as well. Besides the IPO is to fund Indonesian expansion...why the heck support such a company?

The business venture is out of left field...but they are apparently using by products of their manufacturing process, hence if it does prove to be workable, we are looking at rather high margins here...and that's all that matters.

Dead cat bounce is possible. The stock freefall continually from RM1.55...this is just a minor rebound. Go look at the Top 30 shareholders in the annual report and count how many Islamic funds there are...look at the shares they are holding. They MUST dispose all their shares (even at a loss) within 6 months latest.

Always fastest to post results?

Very weird, might be due to Maybank Research issuing a "take profit" strategy call on Bumi Armada this morning? All in all, there is no fundamental reason for Armada to decline from 76.5 to 73.5 in two days in the absence of adverse news.

Walao what's going on...? Irrational market in action...

@king36, that's debatable. It is quite likely undervalued relative to its future earnings potential. The bigger issue is due to the shaky confidence in the stock how low can it fall?

You must understand, Prolexus consumer demand doesn't follow Malaysia pattern (just 1-2% of sales are local), it follows the consumer demand flow of developed countries and regions like US and EU.

Higher USD rate doesn't benefit Hevea. Read the statement from their CEO/MD. Already said it is capped by their clients. No upside if the FX rate slides further. And as a Malaysian don't be so greedy hoping for a further fall in the FX rate lah!

Cool your jets bro. Just enjoy the ride. What's the point Hevea fly to RM1.80 tomorrow then drop back to RM1.50, then yoyo up and down like AirAsia? I rather have small incremental movements backed by increasing confidence in the fundamentals. Whatever rises fast, can fall just as quickly.

I share this investment advice with all of you:

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/72/fc/15/72fc15785f773e104617cb00456818ee--paul-samuelson-finance-business.jpg

Link: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/07/ram-tan-chong-motor-losses-to-persist-before-recovering-in-2018/

RAM downgrades Tan Chong outlook to negative, but reaffirm P1/A1 bond and corporate ratings.

Will be interesting if this results in a small sell-off on Monday. Anything below RM1.70 will be a nice buying opportunity and to top up for me (initial entry at RM1.82). Turnaround is not far off now, with a company like Tan Chong and its Nissan connections, it is hard to go wrong!

@DickyMe, nonsense. Every company should borrow money to maximize returns. Tenaga's gearing is at below 0.4X, which is VERY, VERY conservative. Tenaga's assets far outstrip its liabilities and debt.

I am not well versed in sukuk/bond issuances, but this is neither good nor bad. A company as large as Tenaga raising RM5bil in the debt market is absolutely nothing to fret over. In fact, it might even signify imminent capital expenditure.

Toto2009, KLCI movement is ONLY based on 30 companies movement, not that of the entire market. For example KLCI YTD is 8%, FBM 70 YTD is ~12%, and FBM SCAP YTD is around 15%. All the indexes measure different range of companies based on market caps.

joetay, quality companies of course is very subjective. Parkson is hard to say lah, it has a weak balance sheet and is a declining industry. I have invested in it, but in hindsight I might not have done it. Seems a bit risky now. But in general "quality" refers to companies backed by solid fundamentals - I consider those like Tenaga to be such companies.