Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-02 23:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by newbiestock > Aug 2, 2013 10:40 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by KC Loh > Aug 2, 2013 10:20 PM | Report Abuse
u are right newbiestock. hlind is a very good stock. and MFLOUR is useless.
look how one side u talk and the other u lie... KCLOH i respect u for being a liar and a cheat

I like the last sentence Dave! Hahahahahaha. The most precious gift from your old wardens must have been a dressing mirror. Hahahahaha

Side note: did they manage to perm your hair finally in your bid to transform yourself for their pleasure? Hahahahaha

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-03 15:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-05 14:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-05 14:37 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

I feel that Method 4 is more appropriate, hence there is only 1 method of calculating Intrinsic value.

LBS IV Calculation

Total Net Profit Years 9/10

Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 5/10

Total Dividend Payout Years 4/10

Total Positive free Cash flow Year 4/10

Growth%
10 Years Average Turn Over 365955
Latest 4 quarters 528270 44.35%

10 Years Average Net Profit 22498
Latest 4 quarters 44187 96.40%

2011 2012 2013 Growth%
EPS (Cent) 8.87 10.18 11.17 9.72%
PER 16.23 14.15 12.89 8.86%
ROE 8.12 8.35 8.39 0.48%
NTA 1.10 1.16 1.19 2.59%
Dividend 2.5 2.5

2011 2012 2013
NP/ (NL) 34300 37160 44187
Equity 422536 445105 526831
ROE 8.12% 8.35% 8.39%

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History -8.13%
3 yrs Return 35.41%


Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS 0.11
Total equity 526831
Number of shares 395322
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 1.83
Current price 1.44
Margin of Safety 21.32%
Potential gain 27.09%

Warrant

LBS-WA
Expiration date 2018
Exercise price 1.00
Price of Mother share (LBS) 1.44
Intrinsic value of WC 0.44
Actual price of WC 0.49
Premium or Discount 3.47
Gearing 2.9

Conclusion
If the price of LBS 1.83, the price of LBS-WA should be (1.83 - 1.00) = 0.83.
If it is trading at 20% premium, the price of LBS-WA should be (0.83*1.2) = 1.00.
Potential gain = (1.00 - 0.49)/0.49*100 = 104%.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2013-08-05 14:47 | Report Abuse

Interesting thread... all interesting players are here, hi kc loh... and godo reviews by OTB keep it up

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-05 14:53 | Report Abuse

Hello senator Raymond. Where have you been? :)

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2013-08-05 15:05 | Report Abuse

hahaha.... busy busy but since its ramadan so taking a break. You guys shd trage in the qatar stock exchange, I think they will go nuts. There is only about 60 counters and all with standard financial year end and standard par value etc... so analysis is so easy, and there are no warrants. So purely capital gain and dividend play... and general growth is about 20% every year... even i fyou close ur eyes and pick a stock.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2013-08-05 15:07 | Report Abuse

kc loh.... if im senator then you must be dewan negara speaker ...heeee, still gpiong strong I see... and fending off violent criticisms along the way... keep it up buddy :-)

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2013-08-05 15:08 | Report Abuse

http://www.qe.com.qa/pps/qe/qe%20english%20portal/Pages/Home/

anyone interested can chk this site out....

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-05 15:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-05 15:59 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

Please refer to the following link for Mr Koon's report.

http://www.malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/07/koon-yew-yin-on-jaya-tiasa.html

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/33796.jsp

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-05 18:22 | Report Abuse

I got this stock from a regular forumer here and wish to add it into my new portfolio.

Share price performance
Fibon was listed in Bursa in 2008 at an IPO price of 84.5 sen. Its share price went up to RM1.10 in early 2010 due to the initial good financial performance. However, due to a drop in its net profit by more than 50% for the year ended March 2012, its share price plummeted by more than 40%. Since then it never seems to be able to recover and remained as a fallen angel for a long time. On 2 August 2013, its share price stayed at its low level at 32.5 sen. Figure 1 below shows its historical share price from 18 December 2008 to 2 August 2013.

Figure 1: Historical share price of Fibon

The business
Fibon is a technology company that formulates and produces advanced polymer matrix fibre composites and manufacturing and sales of electrical insulators, electrical enclosures and meter boards. It recently launched a new product called Fibon LogicCube (switchboard) which is expected to yield high margins. Main markets are in Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. It is currently applying for pioneer status from MIDA which will give them further tax benefits.

Quality and durability of business
Fibon does have a durable business albeit a small one which derives its income mainly from the export market. Did the business of Fibon deteriorated so badly since 2011 when its share price plunged? It doesn’t appear to me so. Its revenue stays quite constant at about 16m for the last 6 years (See Table 1 below). Gross profits also steady at 8-10m a year and gross margin quite constant between 8m to 10 m for the last 6 years. The deterioration is in its net profit margin due to the increase in administration and tax expenses. Net profit margin however is still good at 29% last year, which is 10% above the previous year.

Figure 2: Revenue and profits

Balance sheet
Fibon has a healthy balance sheet since listing. It never had to borrow any money as there is adequate amount of free cash flow every year. Total equity attributed to shareholders has been increasing every year as shown in Table 2 below. Its cash holding also increases every year. last year, the cash holding per share amount to 20 sen, or 65% of its NTA.

DuPont Analysis
Does Fibon’s business has economic moat? The return of equity of fibon is a good number of 17.1%, higher than the minimum requirement of 15% for most ardent fundamental investors. A DuPont analysis of Fibon is carried out to dissect its ROE.

ROE = NI/E = NI/S * S/TA * TA/E = 29.4% * 0.56 * 1.0 = 17.1%
Where NI is net income, E is equity, S is sales/revenue, TA is total assets
NI/S is the net profit, S/TA is the asset turnover, TA/E is financial leverage

The main driver of Fibon’s high ROE is hence the high net profit of 29.4%. The asset turnover of 0.56 (<1) and the financial leverage of 1.0 (<1.5) are relatively low. Hence there is plenty of room for Fibon to improve its ROE such as improving its marketing and scouting for more business, or increases its leverage. The return of invested capital of Fibon is particular great at 45.6%, much higher than its costs of capitals.

Fibon also produces excellent cash flow with free cash flow 18% and 26% of revenue and invested capital respectively.

Market Valuation
As Fibon has a business which is durable and of quality, one would expect it should be accorded with reasonable good valuation from the market, but does it?

At the price of 32.5 sen, the PE ratio is 6.6 and enterprise value less than two times its Ebit. This may be due to its small market capitalization and hence not a liquid stock. There are only a couple of analysts covering this company. Besides that, one hardly hear anything about this company. However, this could be a good opportunity to invest in a hidden gem at a cheap price. Hopefully when it is slowly discovered in the future, a ugly duckling may turn into a beautiful swan.

So Fibon at 32.5 sen, is the fifth stock in my new portfolio.


Table1: Financial performance of Fibon
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Revenue 16674 16901 14498 12891 16474 14305
Gross profit 9820 9040 8246 8007 10163 9146
EBIT 6566 6226 5945 5010 8693 8007
Net Income 4901 4499 4389 4014 8304 7847
Gross Margin 59% 53% 57% 62% 62% 64%
Operating Margin 39% 37% 41% 39% 53% 56%
Net Profit Margin 29% 27% 30% 31% 50% 55%

Table 2: Equity and cash
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Total common equity, E 31828 28081 24696 21095 18778 2667
Net cash backing per share 0.20 0.18 0.14 0.16 0.12 0.09

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-06 10:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-06 10:51 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

Please note that I put the growth rate of 15% since the log price had appreciated 20% to 30% since the beginning of 2013.

WTK IV Calculation

Total Net Profit Years 9/10

Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 10/10

Total Dividend Payout Years 10/10

Total Positive free Cash flow Year 6/10

Growth%
10 Years Average Turn Over 672015
Latest 4 quarters 738893 9.95%

10 Years Average Net Profit 55544
Latest 4 quarters 51370 -7.51%

2011 2012 2013 Growth%
EPS (Cent) 15.80 10.28 11.73 14.11%
PER 8.16 12.55 11.00 12.36%
ROE 6.00 3.66 4.12 12.57%
NTA 2.63 2.81 2.83 0.71%
Dividend 8.5 5.6

2011 2012 2013
Net Profit 68636 44670 51370
Equity 1143227 1220240 1245702
ROE 6.00% 3.66% 4.12%

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History 2.81%
3 yrs Return 2.52%

Method 1
EPS 0.12
g 15.00
Y 7.0
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y 2.29
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 43.56%
Potential gain 77.18%

Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate 12.00%
EPS 0.12
Earning expected to grow (annually) 15.0
for the next (? Years) 3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share 1.87
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 31.02%
Potential gain 44.96%


Method 3
ROE 4.12%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 2.83
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 1.46
Current Price 1.29
Margin of Safety 11.49%
Potential gain 12.98%

Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS 0.12
Total equity 1245702
Number of shares 438014
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 2.74
Current price 1.29
Margin of Safety 52.91%
Potential gain 112.38%

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-06 11:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-06 15:08 | Report Abuse

CBIP
I just went through some announcements in Bursa regarding CBIP. It has recently secured a number of contracts for supplying of equipment and engineering works for a number of palm oil mills, supply, deliver, install, test and commission of Prime Mover vehicles, manufacturing of transportation and construction equipment, concrete moulds and general engineering fabrication for a number of clients at home and abroad in Columbia, Guatemala. Is CBIP going to make a lot of profit from these projects? Is CBIP a good company to invest in? If so is the present price right to enter?

For me to determine if I want to invest in a company, I look at four important aspects; durability, quality, value and growth, their importance roughly follow that order.

Durability
A durable business is likely to exist still and still be doing the same thing many years in the future. Palm oil and palm kernel oil are among the world’s most versatile raw materials for a variety of consumer products such as margarine, cereals, crisps, sweets and baked goods, to soaps, washing powders, cosmetics and also in animal feedstuffs and as a bio fuel. As CBIP is mainly tied to the palm oil industry, we would expect the business of CBIP will last for many years to come.

Quality
There are a lot of ways to measure business quality. I tend to look at the margins of the business, the return of capitals, and cash flows, all are of equal importance to me.

The margins of CBIP have been reasonably high and most of all considerable consistent throughout the last cycle of 5 years. Average gross margins is good at 22%, and operating and net profit margins great at the mid to high teens (See Table 1).

The ROE is great, averaging about 21% and achieved through the high net profit margin and little leverage. With more contracts in hand now and hence a higher asset turnover, its ROE will likely improve further. Its ROIC is fantastic, averaging 20% for the last 5 years, 29% for last year. this is more than twice the costs of capitals.

The quality of CBIP’s earnings is good too with cash flow from operations about that of net profit. Free cash flow were abundant at double digit percentage of revenue and invested capital. There is plenty of free cash flows each year for it to distribute annual dividends, and carry out some other investments to enhance shareholder value. CBIP has been enhancing shareholder value for all these years as shown in Table 2 below:

Table 2: Change in book value plus dividend
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Change in book value 0.892 0.675 0.289 0.222 0.297 0.252
Dividend 0.55 0 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.017
Change in BV+dividend,RM 1.442 0.675 0.337 0.270 0.345 0.269


Last year, dividend distributed plus the change in book value amount to a whooping RM1.44, more than half its present share price of RM2.84. Other years were consistent and bad at all when comparing with the share price.

Growth
I normally do not pay too much emphasis on growth. I hope to buy a stock which comes with growth potential for free. This is because rosy growth projections often do not come true. Looking at Table 3 in the appendix, it does show that there were good growth for CBIP for the last 6 years. Weren’t there?

CBIP’s revenue and earnings grew steadily in the last 6 years. Revenue of continuous operations grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%, from 229m in 2006 to 520m last year. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) grew in tandem from 35.8m in 2006 to 88.9m last year. Net income grew even at a faster rate of CAGR of 20%. Though this is history, with the recent contracts secured, it is likely that this growth will continue for some time.

Value
With such good performance of CBIP and the proof of shareholder enhancement for the past 5 years, one would expect CBIP to trade at a reasonably good market valuation. But is it?

At the present price of RM2.84, CBIP is selling at a PE ratio of 7.7. The enterprise value is just 5 times Ebit, way below my 8 times maximum. This is equivalent to an earnings yield of 20% (>>10%), Hence the price of RM2.84 is not expensive at all.

I have added more CBIP shares into my portfolio. This is the 6th stock in my portfolio.

Table 1: Quality business of CBIP
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Average
Gross margin 20% 22% 23% 24% 21% 22%
Operating margin 17% 15% 15% 18% 17% 16%
Net margin 18% 22% 19% 13% 15% 17%
ROE 19.5% 20.4% 18.2% 17.3% 27.8% 21%
ROIC 28.9% 28.4% 9.8% 14.7% 17.4% 20%
CFFO/NI 42% 98% 133% 153% 73% 100%
FCF/Revenue 7% 18% 10% 14% 3% 11%
FCF/IC 14% 34% 7% 13% 4% 14%

Table 3: Growth in revenue and earnings for CBIP
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 CAGR
Revenue 520351 322611 270893 331468 409903 289819 228811 15%
EBIT 88878 49910 40363 60422 68146 50462 35829 16%
Net Income 91775 69515 50237 42304 62933 46710 31474 20%

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-06 20:57 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Tan KW,

Please note that data in WTK forum is not right, please rearrange it again. Duplicate data.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-07 13:48 | Report Abuse

KW, is it possible that in your file on the stock picks, you may want to put in the target price (if any)as mentioned by the selectors.

Posted by Grandma > 2013-08-09 11:26 | Report Abuse

The Net Profit is higher % than the Operating profit?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 12:05 | Report Abuse

Hahaha Grandma, you will learn these guys are shiok sendiri team. Information provided no guarantee of accuracy. .......lol they also cannot take question one ......leave critism.......

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 12:08 | Report Abuse

Case in point OTB wanted to leave the forum moons ago......see he is still here. He is having too much fun here marketing himself.......hahahahaha and what about yoyo yo Tonylim.....who enjoy take away.....must call Tonylim aka Domino the take away king. Alway ambit info and run....call others retard but we know him better.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 14:20 | Report Abuse

Trillion, it; sup to you whether to follow the stock picks by the others but don't give adverse comments on OTB etc. They are nice people who just want to share their knowledge with others.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-09 14:26 | Report Abuse

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > Aug 5, 2013 03:07 PM | Report Abuse
kc loh.... if im senator then you must be dewan negara speaker ...heeee, still gpiong strong I see... and fending off violent criticisms along the way... keep it up buddy :-)

Senator, sorry just saw your post! Dewan Negara Speaker? The most redundant post in the whole political hierarchy! Thanks thanks LOL

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:10 | Report Abuse

Inwest88, what happen to freedom of speech?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:13 | Report Abuse

Which ever it is inwest88 it's none of your business......if OTB is writing to market himself and that is a fact, who are u to stop what I say?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 16:14 | Report Abuse

It's not a freedom a speech. What do you get by running down others. Period.

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:15 | Report Abuse

Which part did I run down others?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:15 | Report Abuse

Did I say his pick is not good?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:17 | Report Abuse

You inwest88 , is the one running me down!

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 16:18 | Report Abuse

Did I just state another fact?

Posted by tonylim > 2013-08-09 18:06 | Report Abuse

Inwest88 have fun.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 18:33 | Report Abuse

Tony, you too ! LOL

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 19:59 | Report Abuse

Huh / Report abused. Anyway good job admin for the strict enforcement of rules and regulations.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-09 21:52 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Tan KW, Kcchongnz,

newbiestock = Trillion now or Alexlulu or Sohai = same person.

I recommend newbiestock to post since his HLI selection was so good pick. He is also a remisier and make million within a week. I want to learn from him. Please invite him to post since he claimed that he is better than Kcchongnz.

Kcchongnz, do you have any problem to support my recommendation ?

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-09 22:04 | Report Abuse

You have no chance to laugh, I really want to see your recommendation since you are so good in stock selection. Base on your postings, you are the best of the best in this forum in term of making money and also stock selection. I really want to learn from this excellent Sifu.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 23:22 | Report Abuse

Someone alredi pointed out the FA mistake.....OTB, read lah......hahahahaha. Enjoy yourself OTB making everyone here especially Inwest88 and Tonylim.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-10 17:56 | Report Abuse

Posted by Trillion > Aug 9, 2013 11:22 PM | Report Abuse
Someone alredi pointed out the FA mistake.....OTB, read lah......hahahahaha. Enjoy yourself OTB making everyone here especially Inwest88 and Tonylim.

Are you referring to the comment below?

Posted by Grandma > Aug 9, 2013 11:26 AM | Report Abuse
The Net Profit is higher % than the Operating profit?


Is it regarding my post on CBIP? then my answer is yes. Any problem with it?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 18:07 | Report Abuse

Hahaha

What is Operating income/profit? Net income is after all taxes and OP is before....so how lah?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 18:08 | Report Abuse

OP is Revenue minus Operating Expense!.....so much for a FA sifu.....kakakakaka

Posted by winman 1 > 2013-08-10 18:19 | Report Abuse

i wish i could find 2013 stock pick of, peter lim from sj securities. seaching the net for quite sometime but fail, can anyone post his picks or show where to get it..............

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-10 18:27 | Report Abuse

Trillion, when you know a little bit and not well enough, I advise you not to laugh at others first. Learn more first. ok?

You will be right if CBIP doesn't have associates and joint ventures. Because the profits from associates and JV are not consolidated into CBIP's financial statements. Hence earnings from associates and jv appear after ebit, or operating profit. that is why net income for CBIP is higher than operating profit. OK?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 18:54 | Report Abuse

Well you said it, I will be right ! Even if I did laugh, in general I am not wrong !!! Net should not be higher than OP...what u are stating is only proportion back by the venture and to associates. If flat down accounting, you can never get a higher net! So don't think otherwise.

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 18:59 | Report Abuse

Your Net is still higher becoz your apportion has not been excluded yet.......you should exclude what is the proportion first for the JV. It's just like akin to saying you gain on forex and reported surplus but is it really revenue growth?? It is if every year you can do the same forex gain or extraordinary income.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-10 19:04 | Report Abuse

CBIP's net profit is higher than its operating profit. That is "flat down" accounting. Operating profit is for the "ordinary" business of the company. It doesn't include profits of associates, jv, extra-ordinary items, foreign exchange gain, gain of investments if any etc. Net profit includes those stuff. Hence net profit can be higher than operating profit. It is actually shown in CBIP's income statement that net profit last year of 91.8m, is higher than its operating profit of 88.9m. And there is nothing wrong with that statement.

Are you an accountant? If so better refresh your knowledge. If not, better learn more about accounting.

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 19:04 | Report Abuse

Also your margin proportion of Revenue ( which include the JV before apportion) against the net income (where the apportion of the JV has been remove) is not correct. That's why u get the number higher lah......

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 19:09 | Report Abuse

In you claim this is flat down, I suggest you rebook at accounting structure again. JV partners will have their accounting numbers lower at EBIT. If you still insist, then I would say both sides recording the JV numbers, this will be double accounting.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-10 19:10 | Report Abuse

Proportion of jv removed? Where removed? Net income is 91.8m, revenue is 520m, hence net profit margin is 18% (91.8/520. so?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 19:12 | Report Abuse

Btw if you are an accountant, this has been restructured some time back and constant revision since Enron. In addition, the number would be large if your % shared is correct to be hidden anywhere as Financial Income that would have the after taxes to be high.

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 19:15 | Report Abuse

Only way is that is recorded in Financial income and not revenue! But then again your calculation is against revenue isn't it?

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-10 19:20 | Report Abuse

Ok? Your financial income is added only after the EBIT but your revenue remains consistent. !