Posted by bighunter > 2013-08-09 14:08 | Report Abuse

@Tan KW : i think i have to respect FCTB on his request. we can't force other to share his knowledge as we never pay him a single cent. he don't have any obligation to do that...

we respect ppl who deserve to be respected. By keeping the list intact will enable everyone here to know better that all humans here are genuine, especially to those new comers.

after all, everyone knows that one is not force to publish his / her view or recommendation. My intention is simple, genuine columnists like OTB, KCs etc will prevail ultimately

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 14:08 | Report Abuse

KW. since FTCB requested his picks to be deleted, we to have respect his wishes. Anyway his picks are not supported by any TA or FA unlike those given by KCChong and OTB. But you can keep a record of his picks fro comparative purposes at the end of the year.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 14:15 | Report Abuse

OTB, you are right. MTDACPI has not fallen below the support level which you mentioned. So it's still too early to say that the counter has under-performed. And it is not ethical for anyone to criticize you even is it drops. No one can guarantee 100% coorect. Even FTCB in his stolc selection on Aug 1st mentioned in his last paragraph " dont take my word seriously, if went to holland dont blame me, every investment have risk, if you looking for risk-free investment, go do FD, it is the safest investment, because if the bank bankrupt , PIDM still will insure you 250k $$. Thus he should also blame anyone if he makes the wrong investment.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-09 14:17 | Report Abuse

Tan KW, me famous ir infamous? Hahaha. I pick fights with bullies only and never contribute much!

Not heavyweight also but heavy in weight! But not tub of lard standard la! Hahahaha

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 14:25 | Report Abuse

Now that FTCB's picks are to be remove, suggest that KC Loh provide his input for the stock pick challenge. I am sure he has some good selections !

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-09 14:31 | Report Abuse

I select stocks when market bearish, not bullish! I like to invest like a girl...er.. Buffett! LoL

If you want overpriced stock, can roger roger here! LoL

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-09 21:46 | Report Abuse

newbiestock = Trillion now or Alexlulu or Sohai = same person.

I recommend newbiestock to post since his HLI selection was so good pick. He is also a remisier and make million within a week. I want to learn from him.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 21:59 | Report Abuse

OTB, I suggest you ask admin if its true we are the same person. Then you will not shiok sendiri thinking only 1 of same person disagree with you. Lol

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-08-09 22:09 | Report Abuse

The way you write, I am very sure it is the same person.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-09 22:16 | Report Abuse

OTB, don't bother about others. Just continue what you are doing. In this world even how perfect one is, he will not get 100% support. There will be one or two people who think otherwise. Probably your guess is correct in that all those you mentioned is the same person.

Posted by Trillion > 2013-08-09 23:23 | Report Abuse

:) ask admin is all I can say OTB

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-08-10 10:10 | Report Abuse

OTB, agree with you. Trillion should be 1 of the said name (newbiestock/alexlulu/sohai). A new member wont be so rude and low eq. He/they are just a gang of brainless tiny ants, just ignore what they comment.

Posted by choolooi > 2013-08-10 11:04 | Report Abuse

I agree with Freethink's observation about the new member's identity.
I came into the i3 investors forum about 3 months ago .
Thus I missed out on the initial stock recommendations .
However,, I do find that 5 or 6 sifus are real good and very very generous in their sharing of knowledge and expertise, with the aim of helping others to make some $$$$$ ....

They don't have any hidden agenda....they never ask for any payment or commission in return ........they just emphasize that we buy at our own risk......

For those like me, it is up to us to pick what we are comfortable with...
I firmly believe many would agree that we should be thankful and grateful that we have these sifus.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-10 11:13 | Report Abuse

Freethink's observation is spot on. Normally a new member does not act in such a way. Report abused emerged just after 12 postings !!!

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-10 11:34 | Report Abuse

isinvestor is a good forum for all to exchange ideas and suggestions for the benefit of all users and where hopefully some can make some money in the stock market. Thus it must be very strict in ensuring compliance of set rules and regulations. Hence all those who launch personal attacks or use foul language or bring up non-stock market/business related issue should be barred by Admin.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-16 16:42 | Report Abuse

TA gave a sell call on Fibon as followed.

[Valuations
We maintain Fibon’s target price at RM0.37/share, b
ased on unchanged 7x
FY14 EPS. Note that Fibon’s share price has advance
d 18% since early August,
we downgrade Fibon to Sell from Hold previously, as
we believe the share price
has already run ahead of its fundamentals.]

My usual questions are:

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7 times Earnings? Why not 5 times, 10 times, 15 times?
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has TA taken this into account in its valuation?
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why?
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same?

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 58 sen (38+20)?

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-16 16:46 | Report Abuse

Well said, kcchong

Posted by Avocado_C > 2013-08-16 16:52 | Report Abuse

KC, maybe you can email your queries to the TA analyst who wrote the report, see what's his/her reply.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-08-17 10:31 | Report Abuse

Hi KC,
How about the acquiring of OPES, whether this has any effect in collection of debts? As stated, if there is a default in payment, how severe will it affect the profit?

Posted by Robert123 > 2013-08-18 08:30 | Report Abuse

It was a healthy pull back, watch the last 3 candlesticks, a long shadow at 36 sen which is a strong support...Yes stock to watch....

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-19 14:33 | Report Abuse

KC : Do you consider to take profit now ? Or you still have faith on it? Just want to learn your thinking process.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-19 14:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Aug 19, 2013 02:33 PM | Report Abuse
KC : Do you consider to take profit now ? Or you still have faith on it? Just want to learn your thinking process.

I am an investor, not a trader. I buy stock of a company based on the intrinsic value of the company. If there is an adequate margin of safety of the intrinsic value against the stock price, I buy. I sell only when the stock price has risen to a value which shows that there is not much of margin of safety owning the stock.

Yes, my investment philosophy differs from yours. You prefer to own those 5-stars stocks with durable business and established records and favorites of most people. For that, I believe you will earn decent return of investment long term and would never go to Holland. Good on you. However, these kind of stocks are owned by most people; unit trust funds and institution investors. As a result, I believe they are fully valued.

I also prefer to invest in 5-stars company, but the definition of my 5-stars companies differ from you. My five stars companies are companies also having durable business. They have high operating efficiencies as evidenced from their recent past. They must have clean balance sheets and great cash flows. And they are selling at a good price in term of enterprise value against ebitda or ebit, P?E, P/B etc. However, these companies can be small capitalized companies.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-19 18:02 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong : Thanks for your sharing. I would like to further share with you my story on investing. You have outright spotted on my investment strategic which delivers good return in long term. In fact I can proudly say that those who follow my advice such as few close friends and my wife are making VERY decent return so long BUT not for myself. Why ? Because I preach one thing but do another thing on myself due to lack of self discipline and greed. Self discipline is something easier to say than do especially in Bursa which has certain degree of gambling element. Sigh, I were born as “Son Of Gambling God” and destined to lose in Bursa. So I always want to preach safe investment strategy with sincere hope that those believe me do not repeat my stupid mistake.
(you are right that my kind of stocks are fully valued at the moment. But I preach to buy only at Christmas Sale/Big Bear, not now)
Hi, I am very interested on your FA but do not know how to start. FYI, I am a technical/R&D guy in manufacturing industry with zero knowhow on financial jargon. One day I may beg you teaching me FA.
Thank you very much.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-19 19:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Aug 19, 2013 06:02 PM | Report Abuse
In fact I can proudly say that those who follow my advice such as few close friends and my wife are making VERY decent return.

I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THE ABOVE STATEMENT.

So I always want to preach safe investment strategy with sincere hope that those believe me do not repeat my stupid mistake.

YOUR SAFE INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS DEFINITELY THE WAY TO GO FOR MOST PEOPLE.

(you are right that my kind of stocks are fully valued at the moment. But I preach to buy only at Christmas Sale/Big Bear, not now)

CAN YOU TELL US WHEN WILL BE THE NEXT CHRISTMAS SALE? THE POINT I WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS FEW, VERY VERY FEW PEOPLE CAN TIME THE MARKET. SEE HOW THE ORACLE OF BURSA OF ICAP HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING THE MARKET FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET.

NOW REGARDING YOUR "SAFE INVESTMENT STRATEGY AGAINST VALUE INVESTING STRATEGY, LET SAY YOU ARE ABLE TO FORESEE THE MARKET IS ALMOST AT ITS BOTTOM ALREADY 5 YEARS AGO. TELL ME WHICH 10 STOCKS YOU WOULD HAVE BOUGHT THEN. I WILL SHOW YOU SOMETHING ONCE YOU TELL ME THE 10 STOCKS IN A PORTFOLIO.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-08-19 19:54 | Report Abuse

Hi KC,
I would like to take a lesson from you as to how to calculate Intrinsic value, should you decided to give this lesson.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-19 20:44 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong: As I have told you my industry background, must well I tell you further that I aware of many dirty tricks on numbers which auditors will not realize. My comments on Fibun was sincere and not come lightly, they came along with experience. Hopefully, Fibun differs from what I have seen before. GOOD LUCK.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-08-19 21:21 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong : I dare not to call myself a value investor here b'cos I do not know how to use Financial Tools to calculate value but I know that I am a 100% Value Investor in Ah Pek' s way. I know only Rev, PAT, Growth Rate, Net margin, eps, PE, div yield and the macro economy and prospect of the business. As I cannot perform professional financial analysis, I limit myself to those widely analyzed and recommended stocks such as Maybank, LPI, Digi, Mahsing, Zhulian, CIMB etc. That is why I call relatively safe. I do not time the market daily or monthly but just wait patiently for the generally perceived Bear(Christmas Sale) to buy. There is not absolute Bear, just relatively low and safe, then I buy and hold until Bull while receiving reasonably dividend along. That simple it is. I believe this is a simple and safe way to make money for old age for many people like me who want to invest in Bursa but do not know Financial Analysis.
Simple example of Christmas Sale: if MBB drops to RM8.50 and assume div 60sen, yield is 7%. I see this as a value buy, and take action; if the bear grows bigger and MBB downs to 8.0, I will buy again and if unfortunately it downs further to 7.00, I will buy more till no fund.
What do you think ?
Thank you very much.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-19 21:49 | Report Abuse

Bsngpg,
Go ahead with your safe investment strategy. As I have said, your strategy is the right strategy for most people, safe and steady.

Don't worry about me picking small cap and unknown stocks. Yeah, financial shenanigans is very common for pubic listed company. As a matter of fact, I have seen that after working in the corporate world myself. I have read books on how financial shenanigans were done, and read about and learnt how to read behind the numbers. As a matter of fact, I have seen many of these financial shenanigans in many stocks I have analysed, and high lighted many of them in i3.

Yeah, despite of that, I could still be deceived sometimes. But the chance is low, I believe. You absolutely no need to follow me. And I appreciate your good intention.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-10 18:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by Tan KW > Sep 10, 2013 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz, for your reading http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/36627.jsp

TANKW, THANKS FOR THE ARTICLE. A SECOND INVESTMENT BANK (AFTER TA) GIVES A REPORT OF THIS SMALLISH COMPANY. AS USUAL, KENANGA ALSO USES A RELATIVE PE RATIO. THIS TIME EVEN "BETTER", WITH A DECIMAL POINT AT 7.6. BUT FRANKLY, YOU HAVE POSTED SO MANY VALUATION METHODS FROM ESTABLISHED ANALYSTS IN A DEVELOPED MARKET IN US, HAVE YOU POSTED ONE WITH A RELATIVE PE RATIO VALUATION?

Again, my usual questions are:

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7.6 times Earnings? Why not 3.6, 4.6 ,5.6, 7.5, 7.8 times, 10 times, 15 times?
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has Kenanga taken this into account in its valuation?
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why?
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same?

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 60 sen (40+20)?

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-10 18:59 | Report Abuse

Katsenelson’s absolute PE for Fibon

For those who are interested in this method, please refer to the appended link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36512.jsp


Basic PE for Fibon with a growth of 3% and a dividend yield for last year of 3.9%,

Basic PE = 8 + 0.65*3 + 3.9 = 13.9

Business risk: Fibon’s business has high efficiencies with high return of assets of 16.4% and high return of capital of 46%. Cash return (FCF/IC) is also great at 26%. Hence there may a good moat in its business. An arbitrary 5% premium is applied to its business risk.

Financial risk: Fibon has a very healthy balance sheet with no debt. Hence a premium of 5% is applied.

Earnings visibility: Fibon has quite stable and high operating profit margins of 39%. Its cash flow from operations is also stable though they are slightly below the net income. As it is a small company, no premium nor discount is applied.

Hence the absolute PE for Fibon is:

Abs PE = 13.9* [1+(1-95%)] *[1+(1-95%)] * [1+(1-100%)] = 15.3

Fair value of Fibon = 15.3*0.05 = RM0.76

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-09-10 19:46 | Report Abuse

If the price can cross 0.415, the sky is the limit. Thank you.

Posted by JTFX > 2013-09-10 23:21 | Report Abuse

signs of increasing vol n accumulation..this will underpin it for another test of 0.40..Europe n Dow showing strenght n good gains also,,

Posted by oldman > 2013-09-12 12:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the imput. Appreciated.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-18 15:31 | Report Abuse

Tan KW, I have said many times before. A value investor buys the share of a good company at an adequate margin of safety. After that he concentrates in his work, or play golf for some, and never look at the screen for months. Only when the share price rises to the intrinsic value (note intrinsic value changes as business improves), then he sell and look for other value stocks.

Talk is easy. Often my fingers don't listen to me.

But serious, you have posted many good articles from Warren Buffet, Philip Fisher etc and recently Peter Lynch. You can learn a lot from them. Most of the time they didn't just make 40-50% from many of their stock selections. They made a few hundred percent patiently waiting for the share price to rise up to its intrinsic value.

I am not saying I am right in the valuation of Fibon, even though I am confident looking at their performance and financials. But please bear in mind that valuation is really an art, far away as a science. And though you should use the past as a good guide, the future may not be the same. Nobody can predict the future.

Actually your question is best directed to a chartist like OTB.

Posted by chatterbox > 2013-09-29 02:20 | Report Abuse

27th Sept 2013 General Meeting announcement:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1419825
- Share buy back
- Dividend 1.25cents

29th July 2013 Announcement for Financial period ended 31st May 2013.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1363373

Posted by chatterbox > 2013-09-29 02:21 | Report Abuse

27th Sept 2013 General Meeting Announcement:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1419825
- Share buy back
- Dividend 1.25cents

29th July 2013 Announcement for Financial period ended 31st May 2013.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1363373

Posted by heavyth > 2013-10-08 14:22 | Report Abuse

can buy now at 40 cents ?

Posted by miketyu > 2013-10-25 15:51 | Report Abuse

How to calculate FCF?

Posted by stanleysee > 2013-11-10 00:09 | Report Abuse

miketyu,
Free Cash Flow = cash flow from operating activities + investing activities

Posted by soros228 > 2016-07-31 23:30 | Report Abuse

So old article