Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H

Stock Pick Challenge - [FIBON] by kcchongnz

Tan KW
Publish date: Mon, 05 Aug 2013, 09:47 PM
Tan KW
0 430,553
Stock pick challenge based on the discussion @ http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/33790.jsp

I got this stock from a regular forumer here and wish to add it into my new portfolio. 

Share price performance 
Fibon was listed in Bursa in 2008 at an IPO price of 84.5 sen. Its share price went up to RM1.10 in early 2010 due to the initial good financial performance. However, due to a drop in its net profit by more than 50% for the year ended March 2012, its share price plummeted by more than 40%. Since then it never seems to be able to recover and remained as a fallen angel for a long time. On 2 August 2013, its share price stayed at its low level at 32.5 sen. Figure 1 below shows its historical share price from 18 December 2008 to 2 August 2013. 

Figure 1: Historical share price of Fibon 



The business 
Fibon is a technology company that formulates and produces advanced polymer matrix fibre composites and manufacturing and sales of electrical insulators, electrical enclosures and meter boards. It recently launched a new product called Fibon LogicCube (switchboard) which is expected to yield high margins. Main markets are in Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. It is currently applying for pioneer status from MIDA which will give them further tax benefits. 

Quality and durability of business 
Fibon does have a durable business albeit a small one which derives its income mainly from the export market. Did the business of Fibon deteriorated so badly since 2011 when its share price plunged? It doesn’t appear to me so. Its revenue stays quite constant at about 16m for the last 6 years (See Table 1 below). Gross profits also steady at 8-10m a year and gross margin quite constant between 8m to 10 m for the last 6 years. The deterioration is in its net profit margin due to the increase in administration and tax expenses. Net profit margin however is still good at 29% last year, which is 10% above the previous year. 

Figure 2: Revenue and profits 



Balance sheet 
Fibon has a healthy balance sheet since listing. It never had to borrow any money as there is adequate amount of free cash flow every year. Total equity attributed to shareholders has been increasing every year as shown in Table 2 below. Its cash holding also increases every year. last year, the cash holding per share amount to 20 sen, or 65% of its NTA. 

DuPont Analysis 
Does Fibon’s business has economic moat? The return of equity of fibon is a good number of 17.1%, higher than the minimum requirement of 15% for most ardent fundamental investors. A DuPont analysis of Fibon is carried out to dissect its ROE. 

ROE = NI/E = NI/S * S/TA * TA/E = 29.4% * 0.56 * 1.0 = 17.1% 
Where NI is net income, E is equity, S is sales/revenue, TA is total assets 
NI/S is the net profit, S/TA is the asset turnover, TA/E is financial leverage 

The main driver of Fibon’s high ROE is hence the high net profit of 29.4%. The asset turnover of 0.56 (<1) and the financial leverage of 1.0 (<1.5) are relatively low. Hence there is plenty of room for Fibon to improve its ROE such as improving its marketing and scouting for more business, or increases its leverage. The return of invested capital of Fibon is particular great at 45.6%, much higher than its costs of capitals. 

Fibon also produces excellent cash flow with free cash flow 18% and 26% of revenue and invested capital respectively. 

Market Valuation 
As Fibon has a business which is durable and of quality, one would expect it should be accorded with reasonable good valuation from the market, but does it? 

At the price of 32.5 sen, the PE ratio is 6.6 and enterprise value less than two times its Ebit. This may be due to its small market capitalization and hence not a liquid stock. There are only a couple of analysts covering this company. Besides that, one hardly hear anything about this company. However, this could be a good opportunity to invest in a hidden gem at a cheap price. Hopefully when it is slowly discovered in the future, a ugly duckling may turn into a beautiful swan. 

So Fibon at 32.5 sen, is the fifth stock in my new portfolio. 


Table1: Financial performance of Fibon 

 

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Revenue 16,674 16,901 14,498 12,891 16,474 14,305
Gross profit, 9,820 9,040 8,246 8,007 10,163 9,146
EBIT 6,566 6,226 5,945 5,010 8,693 8,007
Net Income 4,901 4,499 4,389 4,014 8,304 7,847
Gross Margin 59% 53% 57% 62% 62% 64%
Operating Margin 39% 37% 41% 39% 53% 56%
Net Profit Margin 29% 27% 30% 31% 50% 55%


Table 2: Equity and cash 

 

 

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Total common equity, E 31828 28081 24696 21095 18778 2667
Net cash backing per share 0.2 0.18 0.14 0.16 0.12 0.09

 

Posted by kcchongnz at Aug 16, 2013 04:42 PM

 

TA gave a sell call on Fibon as followed. 

[Valuations 
We maintain Fibon’s target price at RM0.37/share, b 
ased on unchanged 7x 
FY14 EPS. Note that Fibon’s share price has advance 
d 18% since early August, 
we downgrade Fibon to Sell from Hold previously, as 
we believe the share price 
has already run ahead of its fundamentals.] 

My usual questions are: 

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7 times Earnings? Why not 5 times, 10 times, 15 times? 
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has TA taken this into account in its valuation? 
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why? 
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same? 

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 58 sen (38+20)? 

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

 

 

 

kcchongnz has left a new comment on your post "Stock Pick Challenge - [FIBON] by kcchongnz":

Katsenelson’s absolute PE for Fibon 

For those who are interested in this method, please refer to the appended link: 

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36512.jsp 


Basic PE for Fibon with a growth of 3% and a dividend yield for last year of 3.9%, 

Basic PE = 8 + 0.65*3 + 3.9 = 13.9 

Business risk: Fibon’s business has high efficiencies with high return of assets of 16.4% and high return of capital of 46%. Cash return (FCF/IC) is also great at 26%. Hence there may a good moat in its business. An arbitrary 5% premium is applied to its business risk. 

Financial risk: Fibon has a very healthy balance sheet with no debt. Hence a premium of 5% is applied. 

Earnings visibility: Fibon has quite stable and high operating profit margins of 39%. Its cash flow from operations is also stable though they are slightly below the net income. As it is a small company, no premium nor discount is applied. 

Hence the absolute PE for Fibon is: 

Abs PE = 13.9* [1+(1-95%)] *[1+(1-95%)] * [1+(1-100%)] = 15.3 

Fair value of Fibon = 15.3*0.05 = RM0.76

 

Posted by kcchongnz at Sep 10, 2013 06:59 PM

 

 

kcchongnz has left a new comment on your portfolio "Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H - kcchongnz":

Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:34 AM | Report Abuse 
bsnpg, tan kw and many more are all his member of gang...jcool call them jcw gang...or is it jwc gang? can't remember 
he also recommends fibon before...and they goreng it well..now look at fibon...what has happened???!!! 

What is wrong with Fibon? 

Fibon was another of my stock picks for the second half of 2013 at 32.5 sen, just 5 months ago. My detail analysis can be read from the link below: 

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/34374.jsp 

Its share price is 54 sen now. Hence the return in this 5 months plus dividend is 67%. So what is wrong for a stock pick with a return of 67% in 5 months? 

This stock was alerted by a forumer here who practised value investing. I selected it as a stock in my diversified portfolio with the rationales as detailed below. 

Fibon has steady revenue and have been making money every year, not a single year of losses since listing a few years ago. It has excellent profit margins; a gross margin of 59% and net profit margin of 29%. It’s has high ROE of 17.1% is achieved with this high net profit margin, with very low leverage. It is a safe company to invest as it has a squeaky clean balance sheet with net cash of 26 sen per share, which amounts to 65% of its net assets, and with zero debt. It has excellent and consistent quality earnings with good cash flow from operations. Its free cash flow is 18% of revenue and 26% of invested capital. It is not easy at all to find a company in Bursa with these type of cash flows. 

The best thing is at 32.5 sen then, PE ratio is just 6.6 and enterprise value is just 2 times of its Ebit, or an earnings yield of more than 50%. Where to find this type of company to invest in Bursa. 
It share price has since risen to the close of 54 sen yesterday. 

So does value investing work? What is wrong with Fibon? Why are you picking on my choice of Fibon? 

“If you do a good job valuing a stock, I guarantee that the market will agree with you. It is just a matter of time. But don’t expect immediate success. Oh yes, you have to be right.” Howard Marks 

Actually I have no idea why the success is so immediate in less than a few months for Fibon. Well it could be a fluke, but is it a fluke? Frankly, I don’t know too.

 

Posted by kcchongnz at Jan 3, 2014 03:32 PM

 

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2 people like this. Showing 50 of 140 comments

Ooi Teik Bee

Dear Tonylim,

Thank you for your good words and support. I have a weakness, I feel very uneasy to offend people here. You can read my postings, I always use the word "please". I thought human being can accept my plea so that they do not attack me again. Look like KC Loh and you are right.

That is the reason I wrote, 寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人. I sincerely hope it can work for me, unfortunately it can't.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-08-08 18:02

inwest88

OTB, i am sure that there are only one or two who people who talk rubbish and run you down for whatever reasons they may have. The majority are supporting you and the motivation and encouragement you receive from the majority should be enough to give you strength to carry on the good work. The best defense is to ignore them. If these people come out again to run you down there will be a lot of people who will tell them off on your behalf.

2013-08-09 08:33

Ooi Teik Bee

Post removed.Why?

2013-08-09 11:42

tonylim

OTB, your wife is damn right about it if she feels that a few retards here is causing so much stress about you writing in i3 at the expense of so many who benefit from your postings here.

No need to be apologetic.

2013-08-09 11:51

Trillion

Post removed.Why?

2013-08-09 12:10

anbz

did i heard in this room someone mentioning about nova??? hehe watchout

2013-08-09 12:16

Trillion

Post removed.Why?

2013-08-09 12:21

Gilbert Lim

OTB..just do what you do best..sooner or later they will know your true value..cheers

2013-08-09 12:27

anbz

sooner or later this new guy here (who else-me lah angkat masuk sendili masuk) will be known and more famous than any other sifu ever...ever in i3investor... :)

2013-08-09 13:23

bighunter

Tan KW, i think you dont delete any of the stock picks by those who had contributed so far so that we the new n small investors can make an acute judgement

2013-08-09 13:28

bighunter

@Tan KW : i think i have to respect FCTB on his request. we can't force other to share his knowledge as we never pay him a single cent. he don't have any obligation to do that...

we respect ppl who deserve to be respected. By keeping the list intact will enable everyone here to know better that all humans here are genuine, especially to those new comers.

after all, everyone knows that one is not force to publish his / her view or recommendation. My intention is simple, genuine columnists like OTB, KCs etc will prevail ultimately

2013-08-09 14:08

inwest88

KW. since FTCB requested his picks to be deleted, we to have respect his wishes. Anyway his picks are not supported by any TA or FA unlike those given by KCChong and OTB. But you can keep a record of his picks fro comparative purposes at the end of the year.

2013-08-09 14:08

inwest88

OTB, you are right. MTDACPI has not fallen below the support level which you mentioned. So it's still too early to say that the counter has under-performed. And it is not ethical for anyone to criticize you even is it drops. No one can guarantee 100% coorect. Even FTCB in his stolc selection on Aug 1st mentioned in his last paragraph " dont take my word seriously, if went to holland dont blame me, every investment have risk, if you looking for risk-free investment, go do FD, it is the safest investment, because if the bank bankrupt , PIDM still will insure you 250k $$. Thus he should also blame anyone if he makes the wrong investment.

2013-08-09 14:15

KC Loh

Tan KW, me famous ir infamous? Hahaha. I pick fights with bullies only and never contribute much!

Not heavyweight also but heavy in weight! But not tub of lard standard la! Hahahaha

2013-08-09 14:17

inwest88

Now that FTCB's picks are to be remove, suggest that KC Loh provide his input for the stock pick challenge. I am sure he has some good selections !

2013-08-09 14:25

KC Loh

I select stocks when market bearish, not bullish! I like to invest like a girl...er.. Buffett! LoL

If you want overpriced stock, can roger roger here! LoL

2013-08-09 14:31

Ooi Teik Bee

newbiestock = Trillion now or Alexlulu or Sohai = same person.

I recommend newbiestock to post since his HLI selection was so good pick. He is also a remisier and make million within a week. I want to learn from him.

Thank you.
Ooi

2013-08-09 21:46

Trillion

OTB, I suggest you ask admin if its true we are the same person. Then you will not shiok sendiri thinking only 1 of same person disagree with you. Lol

2013-08-09 21:59

Ooi Teik Bee

The way you write, I am very sure it is the same person.

2013-08-09 22:09

inwest88

OTB, don't bother about others. Just continue what you are doing. In this world even how perfect one is, he will not get 100% support. There will be one or two people who think otherwise. Probably your guess is correct in that all those you mentioned is the same person.

2013-08-09 22:16

Trillion

:) ask admin is all I can say OTB

2013-08-09 23:23

FreeThink

OTB, agree with you. Trillion should be 1 of the said name (newbiestock/alexlulu/sohai). A new member wont be so rude and low eq. He/they are just a gang of brainless tiny ants, just ignore what they comment.

2013-08-10 10:10

choolooi

I agree with Freethink's observation about the new member's identity.
I came into the i3 investors forum about 3 months ago .
Thus I missed out on the initial stock recommendations .
However,, I do find that 5 or 6 sifus are real good and very very generous in their sharing of knowledge and expertise, with the aim of helping others to make some $$$$$ ....

They don't have any hidden agenda....they never ask for any payment or commission in return ........they just emphasize that we buy at our own risk......

For those like me, it is up to us to pick what we are comfortable with...
I firmly believe many would agree that we should be thankful and grateful that we have these sifus.

2013-08-10 11:04

inwest88

Freethink's observation is spot on. Normally a new member does not act in such a way. Report abused emerged just after 12 postings !!!

2013-08-10 11:13

inwest88

isinvestor is a good forum for all to exchange ideas and suggestions for the benefit of all users and where hopefully some can make some money in the stock market. Thus it must be very strict in ensuring compliance of set rules and regulations. Hence all those who launch personal attacks or use foul language or bring up non-stock market/business related issue should be barred by Admin.

2013-08-10 11:34

kcchongnz

TA gave a sell call on Fibon as followed.

[Valuations
We maintain Fibon’s target price at RM0.37/share, b
ased on unchanged 7x
FY14 EPS. Note that Fibon’s share price has advance
d 18% since early August,
we downgrade Fibon to Sell from Hold previously, as
we believe the share price
has already run ahead of its fundamentals.]

My usual questions are:

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7 times Earnings? Why not 5 times, 10 times, 15 times?
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has TA taken this into account in its valuation?
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why?
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same?

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 58 sen (38+20)?

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

2013-08-16 16:42

inwest88

Well said, kcchong

2013-08-16 16:46

Avocado_C

KC, maybe you can email your queries to the TA analyst who wrote the report, see what's his/her reply.

2013-08-16 16:52

nokenzo

Hi KC,
How about the acquiring of OPES, whether this has any effect in collection of debts? As stated, if there is a default in payment, how severe will it affect the profit?

2013-08-17 10:31

Robert123

It was a healthy pull back, watch the last 3 candlesticks, a long shadow at 36 sen which is a strong support...Yes stock to watch....

2013-08-18 08:30

bsngpg

KC : Do you consider to take profit now ? Or you still have faith on it? Just want to learn your thinking process.

2013-08-19 14:33

kcchongnz

Posted by bsngpg > Aug 19, 2013 02:33 PM | Report Abuse
KC : Do you consider to take profit now ? Or you still have faith on it? Just want to learn your thinking process.

I am an investor, not a trader. I buy stock of a company based on the intrinsic value of the company. If there is an adequate margin of safety of the intrinsic value against the stock price, I buy. I sell only when the stock price has risen to a value which shows that there is not much of margin of safety owning the stock.

Yes, my investment philosophy differs from yours. You prefer to own those 5-stars stocks with durable business and established records and favorites of most people. For that, I believe you will earn decent return of investment long term and would never go to Holland. Good on you. However, these kind of stocks are owned by most people; unit trust funds and institution investors. As a result, I believe they are fully valued.

I also prefer to invest in 5-stars company, but the definition of my 5-stars companies differ from you. My five stars companies are companies also having durable business. They have high operating efficiencies as evidenced from their recent past. They must have clean balance sheets and great cash flows. And they are selling at a good price in term of enterprise value against ebitda or ebit, P?E, P/B etc. However, these companies can be small capitalized companies.

2013-08-19 14:54

bsngpg

Hi KC Chong : Thanks for your sharing. I would like to further share with you my story on investing. You have outright spotted on my investment strategic which delivers good return in long term. In fact I can proudly say that those who follow my advice such as few close friends and my wife are making VERY decent return so long BUT not for myself. Why ? Because I preach one thing but do another thing on myself due to lack of self discipline and greed. Self discipline is something easier to say than do especially in Bursa which has certain degree of gambling element. Sigh, I were born as “Son Of Gambling God” and destined to lose in Bursa. So I always want to preach safe investment strategy with sincere hope that those believe me do not repeat my stupid mistake.
(you are right that my kind of stocks are fully valued at the moment. But I preach to buy only at Christmas Sale/Big Bear, not now)
Hi, I am very interested on your FA but do not know how to start. FYI, I am a technical/R&D guy in manufacturing industry with zero knowhow on financial jargon. One day I may beg you teaching me FA.
Thank you very much.

2013-08-19 18:02

kcchongnz

Posted by bsngpg > Aug 19, 2013 06:02 PM | Report Abuse
In fact I can proudly say that those who follow my advice such as few close friends and my wife are making VERY decent return.

I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THE ABOVE STATEMENT.

So I always want to preach safe investment strategy with sincere hope that those believe me do not repeat my stupid mistake.

YOUR SAFE INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS DEFINITELY THE WAY TO GO FOR MOST PEOPLE.

(you are right that my kind of stocks are fully valued at the moment. But I preach to buy only at Christmas Sale/Big Bear, not now)

CAN YOU TELL US WHEN WILL BE THE NEXT CHRISTMAS SALE? THE POINT I WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS FEW, VERY VERY FEW PEOPLE CAN TIME THE MARKET. SEE HOW THE ORACLE OF BURSA OF ICAP HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING THE MARKET FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS TRYING TO TIME THE MARKET.

NOW REGARDING YOUR "SAFE INVESTMENT STRATEGY AGAINST VALUE INVESTING STRATEGY, LET SAY YOU ARE ABLE TO FORESEE THE MARKET IS ALMOST AT ITS BOTTOM ALREADY 5 YEARS AGO. TELL ME WHICH 10 STOCKS YOU WOULD HAVE BOUGHT THEN. I WILL SHOW YOU SOMETHING ONCE YOU TELL ME THE 10 STOCKS IN A PORTFOLIO.

2013-08-19 19:11

nokenzo

Hi KC,
I would like to take a lesson from you as to how to calculate Intrinsic value, should you decided to give this lesson.

2013-08-19 19:54

bsngpg

Hi KC Chong: As I have told you my industry background, must well I tell you further that I aware of many dirty tricks on numbers which auditors will not realize. My comments on Fibun was sincere and not come lightly, they came along with experience. Hopefully, Fibun differs from what I have seen before. GOOD LUCK.

2013-08-19 20:44

bsngpg

Hi KC Chong : I dare not to call myself a value investor here b'cos I do not know how to use Financial Tools to calculate value but I know that I am a 100% Value Investor in Ah Pek' s way. I know only Rev, PAT, Growth Rate, Net margin, eps, PE, div yield and the macro economy and prospect of the business. As I cannot perform professional financial analysis, I limit myself to those widely analyzed and recommended stocks such as Maybank, LPI, Digi, Mahsing, Zhulian, CIMB etc. That is why I call relatively safe. I do not time the market daily or monthly but just wait patiently for the generally perceived Bear(Christmas Sale) to buy. There is not absolute Bear, just relatively low and safe, then I buy and hold until Bull while receiving reasonably dividend along. That simple it is. I believe this is a simple and safe way to make money for old age for many people like me who want to invest in Bursa but do not know Financial Analysis.
Simple example of Christmas Sale: if MBB drops to RM8.50 and assume div 60sen, yield is 7%. I see this as a value buy, and take action; if the bear grows bigger and MBB downs to 8.0, I will buy again and if unfortunately it downs further to 7.00, I will buy more till no fund.
What do you think ?
Thank you very much.

2013-08-19 21:21

kcchongnz

Bsngpg,
Go ahead with your safe investment strategy. As I have said, your strategy is the right strategy for most people, safe and steady.

Don't worry about me picking small cap and unknown stocks. Yeah, financial shenanigans is very common for pubic listed company. As a matter of fact, I have seen that after working in the corporate world myself. I have read books on how financial shenanigans were done, and read about and learnt how to read behind the numbers. As a matter of fact, I have seen many of these financial shenanigans in many stocks I have analysed, and high lighted many of them in i3.

Yeah, despite of that, I could still be deceived sometimes. But the chance is low, I believe. You absolutely no need to follow me. And I appreciate your good intention.

2013-08-19 21:49

kcchongnz

Posted by Tan KW > Sep 10, 2013 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz, for your reading http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/36627.jsp

TANKW, THANKS FOR THE ARTICLE. A SECOND INVESTMENT BANK (AFTER TA) GIVES A REPORT OF THIS SMALLISH COMPANY. AS USUAL, KENANGA ALSO USES A RELATIVE PE RATIO. THIS TIME EVEN "BETTER", WITH A DECIMAL POINT AT 7.6. BUT FRANKLY, YOU HAVE POSTED SO MANY VALUATION METHODS FROM ESTABLISHED ANALYSTS IN A DEVELOPED MARKET IN US, HAVE YOU POSTED ONE WITH A RELATIVE PE RATIO VALUATION?

Again, my usual questions are:

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7.6 times Earnings? Why not 3.6, 4.6 ,5.6, 7.5, 7.8 times, 10 times, 15 times?
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has Kenanga taken this into account in its valuation?
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why?
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same?

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 60 sen (40+20)?

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

2013-09-10 18:16

kcchongnz

Katsenelson’s absolute PE for Fibon

For those who are interested in this method, please refer to the appended link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36512.jsp


Basic PE for Fibon with a growth of 3% and a dividend yield for last year of 3.9%,

Basic PE = 8 + 0.65*3 + 3.9 = 13.9

Business risk: Fibon’s business has high efficiencies with high return of assets of 16.4% and high return of capital of 46%. Cash return (FCF/IC) is also great at 26%. Hence there may a good moat in its business. An arbitrary 5% premium is applied to its business risk.

Financial risk: Fibon has a very healthy balance sheet with no debt. Hence a premium of 5% is applied.

Earnings visibility: Fibon has quite stable and high operating profit margins of 39%. Its cash flow from operations is also stable though they are slightly below the net income. As it is a small company, no premium nor discount is applied.

Hence the absolute PE for Fibon is:

Abs PE = 13.9* [1+(1-95%)] *[1+(1-95%)] * [1+(1-100%)] = 15.3

Fair value of Fibon = 15.3*0.05 = RM0.76

2013-09-10 18:59

Ooi Teik Bee

If the price can cross 0.415, the sky is the limit. Thank you.

2013-09-10 19:46

JTFX

signs of increasing vol n accumulation..this will underpin it for another test of 0.40..Europe n Dow showing strenght n good gains also,,

2013-09-10 23:21

oldman

Thanks for the imput. Appreciated.

2013-09-12 12:43

kcchongnz

Tan KW, I have said many times before. A value investor buys the share of a good company at an adequate margin of safety. After that he concentrates in his work, or play golf for some, and never look at the screen for months. Only when the share price rises to the intrinsic value (note intrinsic value changes as business improves), then he sell and look for other value stocks.

Talk is easy. Often my fingers don't listen to me.

But serious, you have posted many good articles from Warren Buffet, Philip Fisher etc and recently Peter Lynch. You can learn a lot from them. Most of the time they didn't just make 40-50% from many of their stock selections. They made a few hundred percent patiently waiting for the share price to rise up to its intrinsic value.

I am not saying I am right in the valuation of Fibon, even though I am confident looking at their performance and financials. But please bear in mind that valuation is really an art, far away as a science. And though you should use the past as a good guide, the future may not be the same. Nobody can predict the future.

Actually your question is best directed to a chartist like OTB.

2013-09-18 15:31

chatterbox

27th Sept 2013 General Meeting announcement:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1419825
- Share buy back
- Dividend 1.25cents

29th July 2013 Announcement for Financial period ended 31st May 2013.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1363373

2013-09-29 02:20

chatterbox

27th Sept 2013 General Meeting Announcement:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1419825
- Share buy back
- Dividend 1.25cents

29th July 2013 Announcement for Financial period ended 31st May 2013.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1363373

2013-09-29 02:21

heavyth

can buy now at 40 cents ?

2013-10-08 14:22

miketyu

How to calculate FCF?

2013-10-25 15:51

stanleysee

miketyu,
Free Cash Flow = cash flow from operating activities + investing activities

2013-11-10 00:09

soros228

So old article

2016-07-31 23:30

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