Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-10 13:43 | Report Abuse

BsngPg! Genting, thanks for the tip!

Posted by leefongyong > 2013-11-10 13:47 | Report Abuse

I have drove all the way from Negeri Sembilan to attend the open discussion with Mr Koon yesterday. I appreciated very much the sharing by Mr Koon and also Mr Teo. Nice to meet some new friends like Swee Kiang, Chak, Frankie, CPTeh, Tracy, etc.
I think it is worth even drive a very long way to listen to the sharing. The sharing session might be short but all we listen is the wisdom which only could be get through years and experiences.
I think it is fair to post different points of view regarding Jtiasa here. But any comments should be refer to facts and figures instead of personal attack which without any proves and evidences.
As we know, share selection is an art but not science. Surely we can have different point of view and we should "agree to disagree" on this.
My impression on Mr Koon and Mrs Koon is: they are very nice and humble. Where can you find a tycoon that can share with you their wisdom and treat you a nice dinner without expect anything from you? (except encourage you to do charity after you success)
Thanks again to Mr & Mrs Koon.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-10 13:56 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr LeeFongYong : Who is Mr Teo ? Do you meet Dali ?
Thks

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-10 13:59 | Report Abuse

Thank you

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-10 14:12 | Report Abuse

Bsngpg! The best strategy in stock market is sell went others are superficial confident! Buy when others are in deep lose and fear! The biggest profit made during deep correction or fear! But as always gullibles enjoy been on top of collapsing towers!

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-10 14:18 | Report Abuse

If you ask now, most would think bourse wont go through deep correction! Thats when you start to be wary and cautios! I am very cautios lately, buying and selling on short term profiting basis! I am not optimistic at all! Most counters are trading at high except property counters! Many already forgetten just in late August everybpdy was dumping their shares! So why those same bunch so eager to buy at high! Dont ask me!

Posted by iamalex > 2013-11-10 14:25 | Report Abuse

well said fortune bull.
i already started to trim down my stock portfolio and now just holding those already winning and those with short term visibility.
must trade cautiously as market had been bull for quite some time.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-10 14:35 | Report Abuse

Senior Bull : Fully agreed with your above points. I would like to reiterate that it is also my strong believe that is the way to turn me into millionaire in Bursa. But "sell" requires big lot of courage. I shamefully admit that I have no courage, my senior friend. Indecisive character is very vulnerable to Bear. I prepare to sorry to myself.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-11-10 14:43 | Report Abuse

Buying a share is not a skill, selling a share is a skill (special).
Market psychology, most people included me is not willing to cut loss. I lost a lot of money in 1997/1998 because I refused to cut loss. That is the reason I learn TA after 1998.
Thank you.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-10 14:58 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,
First and foremost I am confident that the major shareholders are trustworthy and they are serious business people.

Tongher business model is very simple, straight forward and easy to understand. To improve on current performance it has to manage costs efficiently, improve production efficiency and sell much more compared to previous years.

The owner shareholders knows the business and had been running this business for years and had delivered solid EBIT and gave good dividend payouts in the past. Its top line and bottom line figures were affected by the US subprime crisis and the European investigation on possible circumvention of ant-dumping measures by fasteners from Malaysia and Thailand as their main factories are located in Malaysia and Thailand. The European Commission had terminated the investigation in early 2013 and the chairman is confident of resuming sales of its fastener products back into the European markets.

There will be additional top line and bottom line contributions from the opening of new factories in Thailand and Vietnam in the first half 2013 to cater for domestic and the ASEAN markets. My take is the results will be reflected from 2014 onward as there will be teething issues to contend with in the two new factories during the second half 2013.

Chartwise , Tongher share price had hit bottom four times and has since rebounded from its lows. It broke the 200 days MA on 22/10/2013 with high volume and closed at 1.75 and its share price had inched upwards and closed at 1.79 last Friday and above the 200 day MA. It had consistently stayed above 200 days MA since its breakout on 22/10/2013.

Going forward, I am confident Tongher can deliver increasing EBIT and increasing Dividend payout due to improved cost management, resumption of fastener sales back to Europe and selling more into ASEAN market.

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-10 15:15 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, selling is very very hard! Especially on losing counters! But easy on profiting counters! That is why everytime I buy, I make sure the next day it will move into profiting zone! But this is not easy at all! Example is on UEMS last 2 weeks during Budget 2014 where RPGT announce! I quickly cut profit at 2.60 after buying 2.46! After that UEMS drop to 2.32! What I am trying to say is, be very very alert of latest development! Don't be caught! I am sorry for sounding gloom on coming financial crisis! I hope you guys keep guard and cut position if suddenly things turn very messy! Its better to cut position and suffer little loses but able to buy rock bottom prices than waiting for years to reach your original buying prices! I learn not to HOPE! I have focus more on SURE!

Posted by Christopher Tan > 2013-11-10 15:22 | Report Abuse

Totally agreed with Ooi. I have lost alot of MONEY too ! Selling is DIFFICULT than buying shares !

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-11-10 15:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-10 15:31 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi! Completely agree with you! TA highly recommend for investors out there! I don't know why some fundamental purist feel angry mixing FA with TA! If you look at current bursa, don't you realise how stagnant it is! That's why I already 80% cash now! I only holding 2 counters now! If market run a little bit, I would regret missing some profit! Looking at your JTiasa recommendation to buy at RM2 is much better than buying at RM2.40! Share counter but different buying price and if you cut position at RM2, you would feel anything compare to if your bought at RM2.60! So you see how important TA can be!

Posted by JCool > 2013-11-10 15:34 | Report Abuse

D reason why i said earlier tat d TA ppl who r disciplined wil get to keep their profits is precisely tis: setting of CUT LOSS point

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-11-10 15:44 | Report Abuse

Dear Fortunebull,
Never mind, it is very important we must win all the times. Keep to the strategy we know best, it is our "rice bowl" or "passive income" in our life.
I spend a lot of time on TA, it becomes my hobby to read charts. It is the best business to invest in stock market, there is no bad debt. What you win, you just collect your money instantly. You do not need to worry about sale, capital expenditure, bad debt, inventory and supervising your workers.
Thank you.

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-10 15:50 | Report Abuse

bsngpg ...u know what the REAL GOD says:

He said:

O mankind! We created you from a single (pair) of a male and a female, and made you into nations and tribes, that ye may know each other (not that ye may despise (each other). Verily the most honoured of you in the sight of Allah is (he who is) the most righteous of you. And Allah has full knowledge and is well acquainted (with all things).

so it doesn't matter if u are an aryan or jew....it's how u serve your Creator
----------
Posted by bsngpg > Nov 10, 2013 07:49 AM | Report Abuse

GRATITUDE
Real Chinese has GRATITUDE flowing deep inside their blood. Some show gratitude in their daily life, some keep gratitude deep inside their blood. Be it shown or hidden, the good trait is still flowing inside. I am proud to be a real Chinese.
---------

me said ...if that is TRUE

then

a real chinese or any man of any races MUST seek his Creator and serve Him well...to whom GRATITUDE is ultimately HIS?

if not..what can i say


to whom GRATITUDE is ultimately HIS?

prove to yourself that The One u're worshipping is actually The One...if not the no 1 purpose of life is in vain

berterima kasih kepada manusia adalah compulsory dan sifat yg mulia tapi kalau dengan Tuhan tak berterima kasih...semua itu sia-sia

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-10 15:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Nov 10, 2013 12:04 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC Chong大佬: I knew your answer well that when approaching intrinsic value, sell. We mass ordinary investors do not know intrinsic value of our counters, what should we do?
Example is that I really in dilemma if I should sell Zhulian and GTronic which have high PE now (I do not know their intrinsic values).
I read and liked your justification in selling JobSt months ago. Will you do the same on other counters? Be it your counters or not.

Intrinsic value of a stock is a subjective thingy. Each of us will have different IV of a stock. So you have to base on your own calculated and perceived IV. For me, if you have read my posts, I have different ways of finding the intrinsic value of different stock; the main methods I used are the discount cash flow methods, EPV, asset based such as Graham net net,and comparable private valuation such as EV/Ebit, EV/Ebitda etc.

You may use simpler methods such as PE ratio, P/B etc. I don't rely too much on these because these methods do not differentiate companies with different capital structure, other investments, etc. For example two companies doing similar business have the same market price and earnings per share and hence same PE, but one could have huge debt, and the other with huge amount of excess cash. How can they be accorded with the same value?

If you like my justification of using EV rather than market capitalization (price), you may follow my way if you wish. It is really not difficult to pick up the method if you make an effort. However, I won't say my method is better than yours.

Have I sold some of my counters? My new portfolio set up just three months plus ago has risen by 30% now compared to the rise of KLSE of just 1.8%. Yes, those stock prices have gone up too fast in too short a time. Fibon has gone up by 100% and Datasonic 92%. I have sold both of them but after I have sold, they continue to go up. Others, though have gone by substantially in price recently, are still way below my perceived IV. I also have sold PM Corp just recently after going up more than 100% above my purchase price, at 34 sen to be exact. And if you have read my net net valuation of PM Corp, it is way above my perceived IV now but somehow I didn't sell it earlier when my perceived IV was reached. Ass luck. But there is no sign for any price weakness for PM Corp as yet.

Posted by sense maker > 2013-11-10 16:03 | Report Abuse

I think TA is susceptible to manipulation in market price especially on small-trading-volume counters by syndicates who may out-manouevre TA-guided investors into making selling and buying decisions that suit the interests of the syndicates.

FA is indispensible, and TA may be an added tool to be used judiciously. It may be easier to make buying and selling decisions based on relative value proposition. In other words, I buy and sell based on what value I acquire and let go vis-a-vis the prevailing market price.

Intrinsic values fluctuate with macro-economic factors and company-specific developments but by and large, in a DCF model that determines intrinsic values, all factors including cyclicality have already been taken into account.

There is no doubting that selling ahead of a big bear saves a lot of money and is best. But to err is human. The second best strategy if you still hold on to shares in a financial crisis is to buy (much) more 3 to 6 months before others call the market a bottom.

Economic activities move in cycles as markets give signal on pricing for goods, capitals and money markets. Markets are the best way to allocate economic resources and in the process go through boom and bust. This we cannot change.

Knowing first what others know eventually is key. Prescience is much more valuable than persuasiveness in investment.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-11-10 16:28 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, not sure if this is a myth, but is there any study done to show that when smallcaps start to rise really fast like what we have seen recently then it is a signal that it is close to end of bull market... From my observation, this last 2 months, a lot of the small caps have been moving and there are fewer and fewer undervalued companies.. even those mediocre ones that I mentioned to you before like OPENSYS, REXIT already move up so much....

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-11-10 16:34 | Report Abuse

# houseofordos - I share your views (see my posting below). The bear will come sooner when everyone starts to talk about shares, like those in the morning market, in the coffee shops and in taxis etc !

932Kaki
Nov 9, 2013 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
# Market Overview - Despite the Dow closing at a record high yesterday, Asian stocks registered the longest weekly losing streak since June on tapering fear. Here in KLSE, the index has been hovering around the 1,800 level. The record high in the Dow and recent gains in major European markets have failed to lift up the sentiment here. As there is no adverse news to trigger any selling, we are seeing rotational play amongst the penny stocks which is conducive for speculative and short term play. Thus it is advisable to trade with caution. This is just my personal opinion.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-11-10 16:53 | Report Abuse

ok thanks inwest88. realistically, these penny stocks are going up mainly due to sentiment is good now... i personally keeping high % in cash right now...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-10 16:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > Nov 10, 2013 04:28 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, not sure if this is a myth, but is there any study done to show that when smallcaps start to rise really fast like what we have seen recently then it is a signal that it is close to end of bull market... From my observation, this last 2 months, a lot of the small caps have been moving and there are fewer and fewer undervalued companies.. even those mediocre ones that I mentioned to you before like OPENSYS, REXIT already move up so much....

I have read quite a lot of academic research on finance and investing, but haven't read about this before. But I do believe if the stock market becomes too hot with all the rumours and speculating activities involving all the aunties and uncles in the fish markets, somebody will get burned. I am quite sure who are this "somebody". It can't be the insiders or big time syndicates and manipulators. But that could be limited to this group of people.

But I won't use the term "smallcaps". I guess it has to depend on whether the smallcaps gone up because of frying, or is it because investors start to realize their values. Good value Smallcaps have always been undervalued because no retail investors are interested in them. Institutions have no mandate to include them into their portfolio, and as a result, nobody even does any research on them.

Is the market really that high and "dangerous" now? Investors who have been in the market may not think so. Think of the rise of the market before the 1987 collapse, in the 1990s, the Malaysian second board euphoria in 1996, the internet bubble etc. Of course after the rise, there must be a fall. It is just that I don't think it is easy to predict precisely when is the doom and gloom.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-10 17:13 | Report Abuse

tsurukame, thanks for your elaborations. Yes, I agree with you that if what you say is true below, Tong Herr has high chance to regain its past glory. It share price could double or triple as a result.


Posted by tsurukame > Nov 10, 2013 02:58 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,
To improve on current performance it has to manage costs efficiently, improve production efficiency and sell much more compared to previous years.

The European Commission had terminated the investigation in early 2013 and the chairman is confident of resuming sales of its fastener products back into the European markets.

There will be additional top line and bottom line contributions from the opening of new factories in Thailand and Vietnam in the first half 2013 to cater for domestic and the ASEAN markets. My take is the results will be reflected from 2014 onward as there will be teething issues to contend with in the two new factories during the second half 2013.

to improved cost management, resumption of fastener sales back to Europe and selling more into ASEAN market.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-10 18:57 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,
Yes..Tong Herr is my target investment stock as the business model is good and its business can really improve going forward into 2014 and beyond. It is currently very under researched or not researched (hence it accords good buying opportunity) and the best thing to do is there is no necessity to be on the screen everyday as with the momentum players...just need to monitor the company performance on a quarterly basis...

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-10 19:57 | Report Abuse

US trans fat ban may give boost to palm oil use

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/TransBan/Article/index_html

Posted by Jeff Wong > 2013-11-10 22:26 | Report Abuse

I sold all my shares last Friday at 1655 due too easy earn money is not a good sign for stock Market.

Posted by Christopher Tan > 2013-11-10 22:37 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon, I would share this article with my fellow members in my Blog and my new Investment page. Thanks for sharing. I am sure there is alot of people out there who do have the similar interest and same investing style with yours !

Posted by thundercat > 2013-11-10 23:11 | Report Abuse

Too bad I couldn't make it to meet Mr Koon in person. Hope that cpteh and others who met him will share more on how the meeting goes..

Posted by messi > 2013-11-10 23:21 | Report Abuse

CPTeh blog : Mr Koon with the invited guests

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/cpteh/40730.jsp

Posted by ProfitMan > 2013-11-11 10:47 | Report Abuse

Fortunebull, I totally agree with you. I am a strong believer and practitioner of the FA + TA. Lately, I hear a lot of people with a lot of tips on shares pushing up to certain price levels and stuff like that. Once this happens, we need to be very careful of the market. Reminds me of the big KLSE stock market crash.

Posted by andychucky28 > 2013-11-11 14:15 | Report Abuse

This coming two years will be the equity market. Property market is already slowing down.

Posted by Winnie > 2013-11-12 22:44 | Report Abuse

真爱要等待

Posted by heavyth > 2013-12-30 19:24 | Report Abuse

Why sell down...by whom..any comments..???

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2013-12-31 08:05 | Report Abuse

Why and who would sell so aggressively in the last few days? When I posted this article, the price of Jaya Tiasa was Rm 2.13 on 1st Nov. and it shot up to above Rm 2.50 and it closed at Rm 2.05 on 30th Dec.

I think a professional fund manager whose book value of his portfolio is showing too much profit and he wants to depress the price of JT so that he can have an easy start for 2014. In any case, you can see for yourself that JT is so ridiculously under valued. Just basing on the market price of Rm 70,000 per hectare for oil palm plantation X 62,500 ha = Rm 4.375 billion which is more than twice of JT's market capitalization.

Let me elaborate on its plywood and timber business. JT has almost unlimited log supply from its own forest while manufacturers from India, China, Taiwan and Japan have to buy & import logs, most probably from JT. Remember JT is one of the largest plywood manufacturers in the world and with its competitive advantage, it will generate sustainable profit for a long time. Currently it is not showing much profit because JT has been using its money from its timber business to plant oil palms aggressively.

I consider JT is my best bet which I will continue to accumulate. After blowing so much about JT, my reputation is at stake. Where can I hide my face if JT remain depressed below Rm 2?
Koon Yew Yin

Posted by avucin > 2013-12-31 08:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2013-12-31 09:50 | Report Abuse

Avucin, although I do not know you, your comment shows that you have no manners, you do not understand what I wrote and you have a very poor track record. You are crude and you will be a failure in life. Please google my name so that you know more about me.

I will increase my borrowing to buy JT as you can see the big block currently queuing to buy. To be really successful, you must not be afraid to buy when the share goes lower than you originally started to buy if the reasons for buying have not changed.

Posted by datuk > 2013-12-31 09:57 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Koon,

Could you elaborate further on the money made in timber plywood being channelled to palm pil plantation?

Would appreciate very much for yr worthy effort.

Posted by Yap Kong Lim > 2013-12-31 09:57 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr. Koon for your kind sharing. Really appreciate that.

Posted by smartly > 2013-12-31 10:14 | Report Abuse

my respect to you. u walk the talk. salute.!

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-31 12:09 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon : Judging with my understanding on basic human behavioral science, I have full faith on your personal integrity. Even though I am still bleeding on JT, I deem it as my own responsibility and you have my fullest respect. Wishing you a good health. Happy new year.

Posted by zizoudoremi > 2013-12-31 15:03 | Report Abuse

If you start blaming anyone when your share going down, you should just sell your share immediately as you are not suppose to purchase it in the first place.

Posted by ckleow79 > 2013-12-31 16:11 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Koon,

I agreed with how you value the JT. however, JT have a unfavor record that many speculator interested JT. but MR koon, you r long term investor therefore nothing favor to you even the up/down of the price in short term.

as a small investor i sold all the units and will be reaccumulate after it down to RM2.

happy new year. happy trading.

hope next time i have a chance to meet you and listen to your investment methodology.

Thank you for your contribution.
I always believe : "the more you sharing, the greatest return you have".
(superb networking)

from CK leow

Posted by esy33 > 2014-01-01 21:29 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Koon,
I bought Jaya Tiasa way back in 2006. Bought as timber was among the last commodity to go up after iron ore, crude oil and palm oil.
Had relied on International Tropical Timber Organization newsletter to monitor log prices in Japan & Sarawak (so that i would know the price before it being published by any brokerage houses). Bought it because log & plywood prices was beginning to creep up, & around Sarawak State Election in which Sarawak counters tend to rally.
JT was selling for RM3.2 per share (before the year or 2 ago split/rights issue). I sold it for ~RM3.8 and netted me my 1st 10k from the market.
I did notice that in their annual report at that time, of them owning 80k hectares of land (plantable ~70k hectares). They were planting at the rate of almost 10k hectares per year back then. No other Malaysian company that i know of were planting at this aggressive rate.
However, I also noticed that JT should be producing more plywood and logs as compared to Ta Ann. But JT always makes lesser profit as compared to Ta Ann.
Also there were lots of related party transactions in JT operations.
Also, JT's annual profit is volatile as i can recall at that time.
That is the main reason i sold in 2007/8 ( can't recall exact year).
Only just before its rights issue, did the profit perked up and then it fell back after that.
Also, a year or two back, there was this occurrence of large quantities of logs to got out of log ponds up stream that flowed into the sea.
But it was not reported the logs were from which listed timber company.
None of the listed timber companies (that i know of, but i never did an exhaustive search) booked the loses.
Plus (with apology) who knows exactly how much timber that is really extracted in the jungle ?
That doesn't help when JT's annual profit was not consistent at that time. Never really checked JT recent quarterly announcement.
But if JT's profit is more stable, plus dividend then only its stock price will go up.
Also, isn't it that there is just to much additional acreage being added by plantings from 2006/7 ? Each year there would be more acreage added in Indonesia ?
Also, Sarawak land is mostly peat land ? It is less fertile ? Is this the reason (aside from transportation) why Sarawak land is the last to be developed into palm oil estates ? Sabah shares the same problem of transportation, but IOI chose Sabah as its land is fertile and hence a lower cost producer ?

Posted by KCLoh > 2014-01-01 21:32 | Report Abuse

At least Mr Koon stood by his recommendation! Not like KC LOH aka Mr SKPRESS! Gooner! WAKAKAKAKAKA!

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2014-01-01 21:53 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Koon,
1.98 to 2.04 are very strong support level. I still think that the stock price is almost bottom. Down side risk is very small now.
Please do not worry, the price will not drop a lot again.
Wishing you a "Happy and Prosperous New Year 2014".
Thank you.

Posted by KC Loh > 2014-01-01 21:57 | Report Abuse

post removed deliberately not to show-off like someone in liihen and instaco and caught with pants down! LOL

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-01-02 04:30 | Report Abuse

I walk the talk, meaning I do what I say. My wife and I bought more than half of the 8 million JT shares traded on 31st Dec 2013. I have not seen such huge volume of JT shares traded before. It looked like a big fund wanted to sell before year end.

I wish someone can tell me the reason why would anyone sell so aggressively as if he could not sell in 2014. Even if he wants to sell, he should not sell so aggressively to get a better price. JT price dropped 16 sens in the last 3 trading days.

I put my money where my mouth is. I will continue to borrow more money or sell my other holdings to buy JT if its price continues to drop. To be a super investor, one must not be afraid to buy when its price has dropped much lower than when one started to accumulate it, provided the reasons for buying have not changed.

For the same reason my family members and I bought about 20 million Sarawak Oil Palm shares (as shown in SOP 2011 report) when its price was about Rm 3.00. The price was so cheap because their palms were young and as a result the profit was not attractive. SOP is now trading around Rm 6.50 and I sold almost all my SOP to buy JT.

In 2 or 3 years time, I strongly believe JT will double its price, like SOP. As much as I regretted in publishing this article, I am obliged to respond to commentaries. Again I am not asking you to buy JT.

Best wishes for 2014

Posted by Lhchew > 2014-01-02 14:17 | Report Abuse

Mr. Koon,

This is first time I'm writing in i3invetor forum, though I have been following your blog here & Malaysian finance.

High respect for you for being such as honorable man, can be seen on how you handle this case including past event such as donation to UTAR issues years ago.

Don't be disheartened by doubters who are in the minority.

Best wished to you & family in 2014.

Posted by heavyth > 2014-01-02 14:34 | Report Abuse

Honourable man Mr Koon Yew Yin..Happy 2014...!!