Posted by KC Loh > 2013-11-09 09:20 | Report Abuse

even people like kcchong...kcloh ...sepiroth...otb...and many more ...all so called sifus pun tak sedar hal yg mudah macam ni...cheers

take time to find our why we are not invested in some other stocks before jumping to conclusion. ok anbz?

p.s. and i am no sifu or so-called sifu as you state

Posted by ktsk88 > 2013-11-09 09:44 | Report Abuse

Talking about XingGuan, it is indeed a good stock when it was trading above 1.50 and making record profits years in and out but yet still no dividend coming and the pricing hardly going uphill but downhill. Something is not right for this stock.

So basic of investing is that you need to monitor the stock occasionally and follow track of it quarterly results to chart your next course of action whether to dispose or hold.

I do invested in XingGuan but i manage to cut my losses earlier rather than holding on. So don't blame Koon on this.

Mr Koon do recommended Jaya Tiasa when it was trading at 2.09 and look at the price now barely after 3 months.

So in other words, you need to be alert and follow the circumstances and don't sit idle based on hearsay or news given to you months back. Anything can happens even in few weeks times or months.....hence decision need to be taken according to cicrcumstances.

Mr Koon is a philanthropist whom assisting the poor student via his own education funds sponsorship and therefore there is no question about his evil hearted or selfishness as some bloggers here thought.

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-09 10:14 | Report Abuse

Mr Koon mentioned he made 30 millions from stock market! I just wonder if he made those money from his stocks as director of Gamuda, Mudahjaya etc! Even Instaco director Anne can easily make 8.5 millions selling her warrants alone!

Posted by gaomin > 2013-11-09 10:21 | Report Abuse

My salutes to you Mr Koon. You are a true philanthropist and a patriotic Malaysian. Some people have grown older but not wiser; even if you are advanced in your years you have not stopped giving good and timely advice to us all. What is more I could see in you great humility and a strong sense of real altruism. I think you belong to the small group of very senior citizens who have made great contributions to humanity. Keep it up and we investors ( and even non-investors) could learn from you. It is a pity I am not near Ipoh; otherwise I would have paid you a courtesy call.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-09 10:23 | Report Abuse

I always have the greatest respect for Mr KYY, not because I think he is a super investor, but of his social, political and philanthropic contributions to our society. I do acknowledge that he has made his fortune and wealth from one of the right approaches from investing and that is why he is so rich. I may recite sayings from many investing gurus like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Charles Munger, Joel Greenblatt etc, but I am not a hero worshipper when come to investing.

I more or less view his investing approach the correct way, as when we are investing, we should look at the future, not the past. Many investors also have made a lot of fortune following KKY’s approach which I may categorise it as the growth investing approach. However, I do look at the rear mirror often, because if the company and its management has not been doing the right thing in the past, I have doubt if they can do well in the future.

There is too much uncertainties in the future, in our country, the region and the world at large of which I know few can correctly predict the future. What makes one able to predict the future correctly and better than so many other as acknowledgeable if not more knowledgeable and have more information than you? There were more followers of this growth approach have lost their fortune when they got it wrong as it is a double whammy, you pay too much for growth expectation, and when the expectation turned into disappointment, you got hit the second time.

For example, if you buy JT now at the present price, you are paying way ridiculously too much for its present performance. You pay high price because you expect its profit grow at a certain rate, a very high rate indeed. What if your expectation falls short? How sure is the prediction of the yield, the price of palm oil, the labour cost, the competitions from other alternative products, etc etc etc in the future? As far as I know, academic research has shown that there has not been a way to predict the palm oil price correctly with statistical significance. What if there is a black swan economic event as JT has a net debt of 660m and with negative free cash flow for the last two years? Without FCF, you have to continue borrow money even to pay dividends, and forget about using the money to invest in equity market which they did.

I have not much knowledge in the palm oil industry (in fact not much in any industry), and hence I have to rely on some numbers. I have to rely on the discount cash flow (DCF) model as a guide to see if the price paid for JT is reasonable with some assumptions. In this case, I try to make as little assumption as possible, but just a major one, that is a discount rate of 10%-12%. I would use a Reversed –Engineering DCF model to see what is the expectations the market has for JT with its present stock price of RM2.40.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/reverse-discount-cash-flow.asp?utm_source=basics&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Basics-11/08/2013

Bear I mind that mathematical model is precise, but the assumptions aren’t. You can say JT is going to make so much money but you have to show how and it has to convert to what is its EPS, or free cash flow per share or whatever number to justify the price.

With the model, and some other minor assumptions which I think are already very liberal, JT’s growth in earnings has to be in the region of 40%-50% for the next 10 years, and then 3% forever, to be able to justify the present share price. Very few companies can go at that rate and especially if you are already a reasonable big company.

I am not a too optimistic person in investing. I may be wrong, and most probably am, but I still won’t want to take this risk.

Posted by Tang Michael > 2013-11-09 10:28 | Report Abuse

Some luckers bought the right shares and they brag....... not every one is so.......

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-09 10:33 | Report Abuse

If given choose to invest in Myeg and JTiasa, I certain with Myeg! If I were Mr Koon, I instead use those 34 million shares safely bet in Myeg! As for plam oil, there's no gurantee Africa and Latin America wont overtake Bolehland and Indonesia in 10 years time! Remember rubber was once plantation barons choice! Today, how many wealthy rubber planters around!

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 10:46 | Report Abuse

But why the lucky people are not you and me? When sourly see that as luck, do we know how much efforts people putting into many years before the luck. Humble people will attribute their great accomplishment as luck, but I am not so dumb to see that as a sheer luck. The great achievement qualifies them to brag, it does not matter if you like it or not? Ghost ask you have no luck(or capability)?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 10:56 | Report Abuse

Hi Senior Bull: Either you agree or disagree on JTiasa, Mr Koon at least provided his justifications on JTiasa. As you are so confident till want to put 34 million shares (if you are him) into the no brainer Myeg, can you please at least provide some justifications. You are painting a solid picture on Myeg, some less experience readers may just follow without good justification for them to ponder themselves. Thank you.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 11:03 | Report Abuse

"GOOD LUCK" is 99% perspiration working towards achieving the 1% Inspiration ...We create our own Good Luck...There is no substitute for "GOOD LUCK"!!!

Posted by Tang Michael > 2013-11-09 11:05 | Report Abuse

I am one of the luckers and am still a small millionaires but not 30 million....... I made my from muhibbah and dialog a few years back..... hope you all are too.........

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 11:09 | Report Abuse

There is however an exception to Luckers though...it is termed "HANDOUTS"

lol...

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 11:40 | Report Abuse

Hi Tang : I do not believe your small million from Muhibbah and Dialog were from sheer luck. You must get it thru hard works on following the industry, companies, the broad market, your hard earned capital, fundamental or technical analysis etc and not deniable luck too. Hard works can even maybe your efforts on networking with the Directors, Contractors, Analysts or Syndicates and whatever. Anyway you are great on this achievement and you qualify now to brag but I believe you are a humble guy. It is nice to interact with you. Have a good weekend. Thank you.

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-09 11:42 | Report Abuse

Bsngpg! I already did so in Myeg room! Myeg also covered by Salvador Dali back in 2010 during high of GST proposed implementation! As we all know GST was postpone due to GE13!

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 11:48 | Report Abuse

bsnpg,
"Luckers" mean 99% perspiration working towards achieving the 1% inspiration goal of increasing ones networth...

Based on what I read over the past months in i3 forum I can surmise that most of the "Luckers" here in i3 forum are quite comfortable with at least 1 million or a few million ringgit liquid assets...

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-09 11:58 | Report Abuse

Try not depend on luck! Focus your mind to look for stocks that uptrending rather than testing your luck in Sersol, AT! You may lose more that your capital but also your mind! There's so many insane punters who lose their money in bourse! Luck is inheritance! If you don't have luck, you don't have luck! As simply as that!

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 12:23 | Report Abuse

First, I have a significant amount of JTasa in the perspective of small investors. I am now in a paper loss as my average entry price is RM2.90. So the more we boast about JTiasa, the better for me.

But, honestly if I can turn the clock back, I would not invest in JTiasa. We as retail investors with limited hard earned capital should invest in those more established, with proven track record, with more foreseeable and calculate-able earning and financial health albeit the return will not be exceptional high. We should not expect Super return from investment; leave that to others such as speculators or multimillionaire who will be still a millionaire even after a big cut on Bursa. We as a small investor should not bet big and take high risk to lose/win. Bursa is certainly not a place to turn us the mass ordinary players into millionaires. It will only expedite the growth of our wealth at a reasonable pace if we invested carefully.

Good luck.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 12:32 | Report Abuse

Senior Bull : Thank you , I will visit Thread on Myeg. Ya! you reminded me the Myeg by Dali, I have the record in my database. Thanks.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 12:48 | Report Abuse

tsurukame : you command a powerful english. Honestly, I need to check at dictionary for few of your words. It made me not 100% sure on your message. Sorry, it is my own shortcoming.

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-09 13:15 | Report Abuse

Today read about 30 year old lady winning 27 million TOTO jackpot! Now thats luck!

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 13:21 | Report Abuse

bsnppg,
I do fervently believe that eventual success will come to those those who worked hard, perspired 99% of their time to achieve the 1% inspiration of increasing ones own Net worth. There is clearly no substitute for solid painstaking hard work to achieve an inspirational target goal but the inspiration must come first though...In essence you create your own "GOOD LUCK"...

Having said that ...getting in is the easy part...getting out is the hardest and getting out means you ride the trend UP to sell out or you cut out when the trend goes against you...many people I know let their egos interfere with making and acting on objective decisions made...that is the sad part...and it hurts alot for many people as they allow emotions to get in the way...

Posted by darecom > 2013-11-09 13:21 | Report Abuse

hi bsngpg, I kinda agreed with you on this statement "We as a small investor ..Bursa is certainly not a place to turn us the mass ordinary players into millionaires. It will only expedite the growth of our wealth at a reasonable pace if we invested carefully."

If I understand it correctly,

1. Stop day dreaming to become a quick millionaire in short term from equity market

2. It is still way to growth our wealth in equity market if we invested carefully, as long it growth steadily in longer term.

Met a friend over a dinner and he keep switching his money from one counter to another hoping that the money double or triple within month... scary!

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 13:31 | Report Abuse

The mass ordinary players in BURSA or elsewhere are really handicapped as most of them lacked true research work materials on good stock recommendation for investment. The professional fund managers have financial resources that buy first rate research material and is way ahead of the retailers ..

So its really difficult for ordinary players to make it big if these players do not have clear strategic plans...most of them are late punters...and got killed anyway..

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 13:38 | Report Abuse

Tsurukame : I fully agreed with your statement on 99% perspiration to achieve the 1% . In reality especially after bashing by the cruel society for many years, many may lose some degree of their initiate perspiration and inspiration. I am talking about myself in the sense that I know that understanding the financial statement is the upmost basic in equity market, yet till today I am too lazy to learn about it with tones of excuses, let alone financial analysis.

In fact I regard one of the forumer Mr KC Chong as big brother as I see his way of analyzing equity as the basic fundamental one should have. He is very generous in sharing too. I would recommend you to interact with him more frequently, it is fun. Be careful for his direct style, he! he!.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 13:45 | Report Abuse

Hi darecom : From 1 posting, I guess we can become a very good friend already. I resonate your comment totally. It is very lucky to interact with you here. Let us interact more hereafter.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 13:48 | Report Abuse

I truly respect KC Chong methodology on making investment decisions and his methodology requires significant and high competence understanding of reported financial datas. The only snag here is past success does not guarantee future success...I rather approach in a different way at looking at past financial info as a guide but trying to understand whether the company can indeed create super profits...that means one has to look at companies that do not show much financial performance in the past...that's the easy part...the hardest and most challenging part is to identify companies that can really make it...

Posted by sense maker > 2013-11-09 13:48 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, perhaps you may learn from forummers more directly by organising a gathering for 2 hours over a meal in KL. Maybe some likeminded investors would like to join. I much prefer face-to-face interaction which is more personal.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 13:55 | Report Abuse

Hi sense maker : Appreciate your idea very much. Thanks. I am one of the neighbours of Mr Koon but now is 868 miles away from him in oversea.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 14:02 | Report Abuse

Hi Tsurukame : I see a gap in your comment on Nov 9, 2013 01:48 PM. I hope my big brother Mr KC Chong see this comment and put up his view. I do not think I have enough weight to comment on that perspective.

KC Chong 大佬, are you in ?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-11-09 14:03 | Report Abuse

# tsurukame - you are definitely right. How many ordinary players can make it in the market. As I mentioned before, for an ordinary player, do not expect to get rich from the market. I have been in the market for 30 over years and consider myself lucky to be the plus side after surviving a few market crashes. There are definitely more losers than winners in the market and the major causes, in my opinion are greed, fear, lacking in knowledge, being naive etc. Of course luck could be a factor.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 14:10 | Report Abuse

Inwest88,
Most ordinary players do not do research and even if they did...they do not have a strategic plan to get in, sell out at TP or cut out when price trend worked against them...most of them are either very egoistic, very hopeful or just bury their head in the sand and become ostriches...easy meat to kill for good barbeque session..

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-11-09 14:18 | Report Abuse

# tsurukame - very true !

Posted by messi > 2013-11-09 14:39 | Report Abuse

Hi everyone here, after reading your postings & comments, it can be inferred that most of you are knowledgeable and experienced market players/investors.

Would appreciate if some of you sifu recommend 2 or 3 stocks with potential future growth for the benefits of all i3 forummers to consider.
Sharing good info and teaching/helping the less knowlegeable are equitable to doing charity and in return good blessing will come to you one day.

Now we have 2 stocks to consider : Jtiasa & Myeg.

Posted by King Kong73 > 2013-11-09 14:39 | Report Abuse

2 years in bskl now...so far in the money as a novice stock trader...thanks to i3 investor and tips from the good folks here.

Posted by King Kong73 > 2013-11-09 14:42 | Report Abuse

And also buying counter tht is oil and gas related also helps

Posted by lmenwe > 2013-11-09 14:44 | Report Abuse

Dear Tsurukame that's what everyone are believing when QE was launched but please study the velocity of money. The money supply was increased however the velocity of money are falling. After the banks received money printed by FED they put it back to FED as reserve. That's why it explain no hyperinflation despite printing frenzy by uncle Ben. Another thing is U.S. are actually deleveraging without QE it will deflation.

To me it will be very simple just focus on the supply and demand. If currency war will boost every commodities prices, steels, copper, crude oil, sugar, cocoa, coffee prices won't be going down.

Dear bsnpg, I am not analyst. I am just interested on plantation counters as my dad had been planters for more than 20 years and due to the simplicity on analyzing them. However now I feel that it will be much better I invest in consumer products that can grow together with per capita income in emerging markets. If you understand Mandarin you should go investalks forum to have a look on the threads from the most caliber members. They are much better than the analysts in investment banks (sell side since no body can read buy side reports). I am no way comparable to them.

Posted by Tang Michael > 2013-11-09 14:51 | Report Abuse

Dear all investors or luckers......I made my small millions buying/selling/keeping my shares for over 30 years......shares like bat/shell/dutch/amway etc......all for thier dividens and bonuses/share split. Like all of you......patience is the key......sell when people rush....buy when they hide......

Posted by esegaban > 2013-11-09 14:54 | Report Abuse

TA is directly proposional to FA.....

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2013-11-09 14:56 | Report Abuse

I am glad my article 'How to become a super investor' has attracted so many commentaries. If you google my name you will read a lot more of my writings and U Tube interview by BMF.

I see there are a few exchanges regarding LUCK. You may like to read what Seneca said about LUCK: Lucius Annaeus Seneca (often known simply as Seneca; ca. 4 BC – AD 65) was a Roman Stoic philosopher, statesman,dramatist, and in one work humorist, of the Silver Age of Latin literature. He was tutor and later advisor to emperor Nero. While he was forced to commit suicide for alleged complicity in the Pisonian conspiracy to assassinate Nero, the last of the Julio-Claudian emperors, he may have been innocent.[1][2] LUCK is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

Best of luck

Koon Yew Yin

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 14:59 | Report Abuse

Imenmwe,
Yes I do agree with you that on a macro level one must keep track on the money supply growth and the velocity of money indicators...Having said that the most brilliant minds in the world in USA, Europe, China, Japan are at work to avert a global deflation...US has to deleverage in a controlled manner though... due the financial excesses they brought to themselves...and controlled deleveraging will take a long time ..

Posted by messi > 2013-11-09 15:02 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Koon, like the saying goes...Do not put all eggs in one basket...

Besides JTiasa, it would be good for i3 investors if you could recommend a few more potential growth stocks for us to consider. Thank you for sharing.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-11-09 16:08 | Report Abuse

Tsurukame, you are an experienced investor yourself. As I have mentioned before, success in investment does not require one to be high competence in finance and investment. Many forumers here are successful investors just based on some sound simple investing principles.

The thing is finance and investment is an art more than a science. Everybody has his own different approach in investing. One of them as mentioned by you is trying to find companies which can make extra-ordinary profit in the future, though I am not sure about your statement “that means one has to look at companies that do not show much financial performance in the past”.

But I am more interested in your later statement “the hardest and most challenging part is to identify companies that can really make it”. Frankly speaking, how many of us retail investors have the time and the ability to do it? This is the rice bowl of full time analysts. They will have to study the economy, the industry, talk to the management, their clients, competitors, suppliers etc, visit their factories, plantations etc, and still have to come back and make analysis and come up with forecast of growth revenue and earnings, and then translate to earnings per share, cash flow etc and come up with a valuation. But would you trust that they will do a good job in this?

This is the statistics. In the research by SG Global Strategy Research on the accuracy of forecast in the US by analysts from 2001-2006, the average 24-month forecast error is 93%, 12-month, 47%. In four of the nine years, analysts have not even managed to get the direction of the change in prices correct! The absolute scale of the average forecast error is 25%.
Source “Value Investing” James Montier.

Why was the forecast so poor? There are simply too many variables; the economy, the path of interest rates, the sectors, the particular stocks, sales, costs, taxes etc. So what better way we can do to ensure that we are going to get a better return from our investment?

You already notice that I rely on the past performance. Actually I also try to gauge the moat of a business. To me a business has good moat if it has been earning high margins, making high ROE and ROIC, and consistently making good cash flow, free cash flow in particular from its business. There is a higher probability of similar future performance. A company is safe to invest if it has manageable debts and better still with a lot of cash. Remember what Warren Buffet said,

Rule number one, don’t lose money, and
Rule number two, don’t forget Rule number 1.

After I have determined that it is a good company and have a feel of its intrinsic value, and if I can get the stock at a reasonable or even cheap price, how much risk will I incur investing in its stock compared to the potential upside?

When to sell? For me, it is easy; when the stock price has moved up close to its intrinsic value, though often it is easier said then done.

Well as I have said, everybody has his own strategy. That is my strategy and I won’t say it is the only right one. It has served me very well so far. I simply has no time and ability to make good forecast.

Posted by sense maker > 2013-11-09 17:13 | Report Abuse

I believe in the following:

Good and bad lucks cancel each other out in the long run.

Consider buying only companies with big margin of safety. Put money only into top value propositions. Do not compromise on this as we deploy our hard-earned money in the best possible way.

Start buying 6 to 12 months ahead of catalysts and selling when it reaches fair value. If you stocks do not move after 18 months, re-examine your selection criteria.

Do not buy into a company if you do not dare to buy more when it drops.

We have been in a L shape recovery since early 2010 and it should continue at least till 2016 or much longer as central banks worldwide ensure nominal economic growth by keeping credit loose and political expendience dictates fiscal accomodation. But thereafter, we must be careful and if necessary, clear all positions.

I started my first job with negative asset as I had to pay off my study loan. I come from a poor family and have learnt it the hard way- having lost a combined sum of millions during the crashes in 1990s, 2008. But those earlier lessons learnt go a long way in my recovery into a rather fruitful investor nowadays, much more than making back those losses.

kcchongnz is right that everyone has to choose his own style of investing. Losing money is part the game but do it early in your life. By the time you have reached 30s or 40s, you should have built up an arsenal of safeguards against almost all pitfalls in investing.

Posted by Christopher Tan > 2013-11-09 17:20 | Report Abuse

I would like to throw the hated share on the table, KNM. Do you think it will rebound, anyone? Time will tell.

Posted by WahHaaHaa > 2013-11-09 17:41 | Report Abuse

I too bought KNM shares a couple of months back at RM0.425 ! Cut loss on Friday @RM0.41 and convert all them into MAS shares ! Hope to recoup back soon with interest at least by year end ! Wish me luck !

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 17:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Tsurukame : You said : “….past success does not guarantee future success…” .I have to agree with this statement.

You said : “…one has to look at companies that DO NOT show much financial performance in the past...... can really make it ”,

I saw a "gap" here :
My simple logic:
i)One cannot success in the past, the chance of success in the future is 49%.
ii)One can success in the past, the chance of success in the future is 51%.
iii)One have no past record, the chance of success in the future is 50%.

Which one you want to put in your hard earned money ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 17:48 | Report Abuse

Ha! KC Chong 大佬: I can catch the same “gap” as you, which indicates that I have learnt some of your skill. I am happy on my improvement.

OK, I want to go for sexy-jogging again, today i target 6 km. Bye.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-09 17:51 | Report Abuse

To Mr Koon and all i3 memners in Meru now, wishing you a happy chatting and happy dinner. Best Regards from 868 miles away. Drive home safely after the dinner. Bye.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 17:56 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,
You are also a very experienced investor yourself, very well read, extremely financial savvy and a man with superb intellect based on your write-ups. I do enjoy reading your articles, your thinking process that leads to your qualitative judgement based on strict financial decision making discipline. My strategy on stock investment choice is to focus on turnaround stocks..

I agree with you that the hardest part is to decide on when to sell especially when earnings keep on rising in a turnaround stock as this will impact on the intrinsic value. My exit strategy is to focus on quarterly EPS n YTD EPS and the moment it plateaus ie no change from previous year , I will then rely on technical indicators to exit.

Nevertheless I have asked Mr Koon for his valued advise on this matter but till now I am still waiting for his experienced input on mandatory info that he requires to decide on before selling the stocks.

I have identified one stock that is a potential turnaround stock and that stock is called "TONGHER RESOURCES". My take is going forward the EBIT and Dividend payout can double. What is your take on this stock?? Appreciate your valued input on this matter.

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-11-09 18:11 | Report Abuse

bngpg,
Turnaround stocks I focus on are:
-fundamentally sound stocks with bad management OUT.
-fundamentally sound stocks on the cusp of a cyclical UPTURN
-stocks with good business model enhanced by new business acquisition that adds value to the company business

These stocks will GAP UP over time..