Posted by choop818 > 2016-10-09 16:37 | Report Abuse

Calvin, what will the ant store in anticipation of very hard times? What will it concentrate on? What will be its first choice for a safe haven, will it be in bonds, shares, real estate, commodities or currency (local or foreign)? Joseph in biblical times advised the Pharaoh to store grain, what should we store in present times?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 17:33 | Report Abuse

choop818
Before the advent of QE OR KEYNEYSIAN PUMP PRIMING, the Safest Form of Defense was just Cash - Pure Cash, as advocated by Robert Prechter in his book called CONQUER THE CRASH.

That was true in 1929, 1997/8, 2007/8 in all those market crashes CASH WAS KING. Austrian School of Thought was correct then.

Times have changed now that Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have embraced the Keynesian theory of John Maynard Keynes and Paul Krugman.

I do not think Cash is now king anymore. As the new fangled peril now is the Printing Machine. So With Endless QE Cash itself is now in danger of dilution.

As the future is unknown Dr Marc Faber advises holding 4 classes of investment in 25% proportion each - Shares, Gold, Bond (or cash) and real estate.
This is capital protection at its best, according to Dr Marc.

What is Calvin's position?

I agree with Warren Buffet that gold is a non productive commodity. Bond is too dull for me. A cash buffer of at least 6 months should be reserved for emergencies. A little real physical gold as a form of insurance is ok as gold has store of value and portable. In 1975 Vietnamese boat people made their escape with physical gold only.

For real estate I think the very best is in Iskandar low cost house, single storey houses, double storey landed houses below Rm400,000. Only Apartment to buy is Rm200k and below. These apartments give a rental yield of 6 to 8% with capital aprreciation of 4%.

Landed houses now give a rental yield of 5% to 6% plus capital gain of around 6% yearly.

So at minimum 10% overall yield I find them Rock Solid as a class.

The 2 group of investment would be a basket of highly defensive shares like utility, health care, education, consumer stables (not consumer discretionary), and also construction stocks which will benefit from Govt pump priming.

Will the market eventually crash like TTB of ICapbiz predicted?
Only God knows. However, John Maynard Keynes' WAY TO WEALTH already show us that his 2 funds survived the great depression pretty well.

So I think the danger today is not so much another huge crash. The fear is men panicked into cash. And cash itself is slowly steadily being eroded by the relentless printing of fiat money which eventually destroy all the remaining value of paper money.

Posted by choop818 > 2016-10-09 18:42 | Report Abuse

Calvin, thanks for your quick response. Safe haven in cash will depend on public preference. Mr. Pretcher was obviously refering to USD. If there is a migration (currently happening) to USD stocks/cash, our own currency may be in jeopardy with the outflow. Investment/speculation in shares still holds the highest attraction because of its volatility - it can make you rich or poor in an instant. In the local context, it will be a dream situation for cash rich companies like ICap.

Posted by newb1995 > 2016-10-09 18:47 | Report Abuse

Calvin, are u lecturer?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 18:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by newb1995 > Oct 9, 2016 06:47 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin, are u lecturer?

Yes, long ago.

Posted by newb1995 > 2016-10-09 19:00 | Report Abuse

Calvin si fu, my friend recommend me to buy steel related stock, is it good to enter now?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 19:03 | Report Abuse

newb1995 Calvin si fu, my friend recommend me to buy steel related stock, is it good to enter now?
09/10/2016 19:00

Steel is still good. Try to buy on pull back on days of weakness

Posted by newb1995 > 2016-10-09 19:32 | Report Abuse

Thanks Calvin si fu, mind to share which steel stock u recommend?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 19:37 | Report Abuse

Long steel stocks that will benefit from MRT job orders like Anjoo, SSteel & Masteel.

The hype over flat steel is only temporary due to market captured from mega steel losses.

But try to buy only on market weakness.Avoid day trading.

Posted by newb1995 > 2016-10-09 19:39 | Report Abuse

Cscsteel good to buy?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 19:51 | Report Abuse

Newb1995

Take a look at Cscteel products

Business Background
CSC Steel Holdings Berhad is engaged in the investment holding and provision of management services. The Company's operating divisions include cold rolled and galvanised steel products, investment holding and others. Its products include hot-rolled pickled and oiled steels, cold-rolled steels, hot-dipped galvanized steels and pre-painted galvanized steels (PPGIs). Its hot-rolled pickled and oil steels are applied in automotive wheels, strapping, tubing, racks and automotive inner stamping parts. Its cold-rolled steels are applied in electrical and electronic appliances, drums, steel pipes, automobile parts and office furniture. Its hot-dipped galvanized steels are applied in PPGI substrate, ceiling tee strips, door and window frames, steel nails, steel decks, trunks, trusses, home appliance casings, filter frames, expanded metals, satellite panels and microwave oven inner parts.

Application of products:

Automotive wheels (Is New Car Sales OK?)
Electrical and electronic appliances
Drums
Racks
Window frames
Steel nails
microwave ovens inner parts
Others

These are all consumer discretionary stocks. It depends on the health of the world economy.

Now people like TTB of Icapboz thinks that world is entering great depression again. So all these products will have less demand

I cannot predict what's going to happen to world markets.

I think Long Steel that depends on Local MRT. LRT & Infrar works will be more certain.

In any case both long steel and flat steel have already run up so much in prices. So I am not longer bullish on them

I still like BPuri above them all as I think Bpuri is a great buy now.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-09 21:09 | Report Abuse

http://bonescythe.blogspot.sg/2015/09/bina-puri-hot-bargain.html

Posted by 新鸟 > 2016-10-09 21:58 | Report Abuse

到底是乌鸦还是老鹰？小心这只喜欢误导人的乌鸦。

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-10-10 00:14 | Report Abuse

calvintaneng And for Projects Awarded for Year 2016 the results will show up in the Balance Sheet for 31 December 2017.

And More:

Since Malaysia's GE is coming soon there will be more project awards for BPuri as it is Govt Linked. See Pm Najib gave lots of projects to GKent & GKent shares have more than doubled in price by now.

Both UMNO & MCA Companies will need cash for the coming GE - latest by year 2018.


And read carefully the words of BPuri's Matthew Tee:

Bina Puri Holdings Bhd executive director Matthew Tee Kai Woon is of the view that Budget 2017 will be positive for construction firms, with more contracts to be awarded in the final quarter of this year.

“The immediate one will be MRT2 and LRT3, followed by the Sabah section of Pan Borneo Highway next year,” he commented.

Tee also advised investors to start looking at construction stocks, because they are the prime beneficiaries of mega infrastructure projects.

“It should be a good year for us. If the oil price rebounds, there will be a lot of oil and gas projects that require general works from us,” he further said.

NOTE:

1) BUDGET 2017 WILL BE POSITIVE FOR CONSTRUCTION FIRMS
2) MORE CONTRACTS TO BE AWARDED IN THE FINAL QUARTER OF THIS YEAR
3) IMMEDIATE ONE WILL BE MRT2 and MRT3
4) FOLLOWED BY PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY NEXT YEAR (Bpuri with CMSB already secured Sarawak side. Now Brunei & Sabah portion coming soon)
5) HE ALSO ADVISED INVESTORS TO START LOOKING AT CONSTRUCTION STOCKS
6) BECAUSE THEY ARE PRIME BENEFICIARIES OF MEGA INFRARSTRUCTURE PROJECTS
7) IT SHOULD BE A GOOD YEAR FOR US (BPURI)
8) IF OIL PRICE REBOUNDS, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF OIL AND GAS PROJECTS THAT REQUIRE GENERAL WORKS FROM US

AND FURTHER NOTE: BPURI's SUBSTANTIAL SHARE HOLDERS IS MMC'S BOSS. Although he is holding BPuri Shares in private capacity I think if BPuri needs help MMC will definitely be there.

ALL THE SALIENT FACTORS POINT TO A VERY POSITIVE TIME AHEAD FOR BPURI


BPURI - AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME!

Posted by choop818 > 2016-10-10 01:00 | Report Abuse

Calvin, at this point in time, your humble ant should be your role model, to store rather than to splash. Investors should be advised that any investments should be on short term basis only. It will be crazy to go long now as a drastic reversal is expected to happen soon.