Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:45 | Report Abuse

Many people always thought that BOT business is guaranteed profit things, they never know how to look at the capital arrangement & the relationship between the capital, finance & IRR.

Just look at Cypark, during the construction period of its seremban project, the company's loans keep increasing like hell & the management keep looking for new cash to finance the construction.

Some may ask, Cypark is making profit, why can't they use the profit to finance the construction. Please look at the profit carefully, its all paper profit only! Once you look at the cash flow statement, it was never real profit. Once they completed the construction, the real money will come from the Operation part.

Why Ekovest didn't have this problem at Duke 2 & 3? Because Ekovest had secured full loans from Government & Financial Institutions even before the constructions of Duke 2 &　3 were started!

Please read the balance sheets of these 2 companies as they have gone through the processes. They are 2 different examples for how to look at Jaks.

To me, too many things were still kept in the dark & normal general public like me can't even know what is going on the IRR & capital arrangement.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:46 | Report Abuse

Same goes to MFCB, how much will be the sales can be generated from the Dam operation? No, nothing has been disclosed. No one know what will be the figures look like once the construction of Dam is completed.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:49 | Report Abuse

The Key will be the sales & profits to be generated from the concessionaire assets once the construction is completed. If you set too high profit for the Construction, you will have problem to deliver reasonable profits at the Operation part later.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:51 | Report Abuse

Plus & LDP were extreme cases, both were built on existing already busy roads & both are monopoly.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:51 | Report Abuse

Big like to KC on this article

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:55 | Report Abuse

That's the reason I never touch on MFCB & Jaks, because I have no way to know the profit projection after the completion of building of assets.

But I under-estimated the short sighted of Mr Market, I learned it & hope to make use of it next time.

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-05-22 01:59 | Report Abuse

This article is so far the best when come to accounting treatment for concessionare assets
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hardworkeasylifesuperman99/85251.jsp

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-05-22 02:21 | Report Abuse

PB has the worst analyst as my observations! Do not know what else to say.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-05-22 02:25 | Report Abuse

Weather in highland too cold, can't sleep. Hope everyone has good rest. Gnight

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-05-22 02:40 | Report Abuse

Big frog can't jump! Wish big frog can jump to my kitchen! I ' m good chef! Gronuille

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-05-22 07:05 | Report Abuse

myongcc5 Weather in highland too cold, can't sleep. Hope everyone has good rest. Gnight
22/05/2017 02:25

Where r you ?

Posted by abang_misai > 2017-05-22 07:19 | Report Abuse

You want big frog, buy kuchai

Posted by cheoky > 2017-05-22 07:34 | Report Abuse

Flavor Macam mudajaya power plant, scary. Thx for sharing. Mfcb OK le. Raw mat is water not coal

Posted by cheoky > 2017-05-22 07:37 | Report Abuse

If turn out to be like India plant ma jialat for uncle k?

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-05-22 07:47 | Report Abuse

Hahahahahahahaha! But KYY made money wor! While our beloved keh si chong is still making money from rm50 subscription fees

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 08:20 | Report Abuse

You are talking like JAKS China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co Ltd Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China all have no ideas how to evaluate a project... you who charge rm50 subscription fee is the only one in the whole world who know.... ego much much bigger than the super investor... and also definitely can do slander

Posted by Beza > 2017-05-22 08:27 | Report Abuse

When KYY sells, then he might make or lose money. Imagine if he sells, all people sells, KYY should lose money. Use brain to think, Flintstones! Who want to keep it for most are short term players except KYY. KYY is not always right in his investment like Mudajaya and Xinqing etc..

Posted by Beza > 2017-05-22 08:28 | Report Abuse

KCChong is practical in this case while KYY is idealistic.

Posted by Patron > 2017-05-22 08:32 | Report Abuse

That's why I hate "value investor". They all talk like professor / accountant / economist . Matter of facts is market is irrational / illogical. Logics or formulas don't work in real time market.

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 08:32 | Report Abuse

JAKS China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co Ltd Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China.... put in the billions and the troubles just for the heck of it?

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 08:40 | Report Abuse

And.... the (EPC) contract worth RM1.9bn... could well be much much easier than r°Moi has earlier thought

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-05-22 08:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by Beza > May 22, 2017 08:28 AM | Report Abuse

KCChong is practical in this case while KYY is idealistic.

I beg to differ...KC is FA play while KYY is goreng play

To me, whoever make money at the end is the winner in this stock game

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-05-22 08:48 | Report Abuse

r°Moi, dont waste time study all this...should instead study Koon's exit plan if u want to make money in short term

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 09:00 | Report Abuse

Have to watch that too... but saying is price is eventually driven by profits... not by Mr Ks profit..

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

kc


who will believe you when you try to imply that a US$2 billion IPP project do not have handsome rewards for investors?


yes....these kind of projects always have execution risks...but this is what businessmen do.....business men take the business risk.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-22 09:43 | Report Abuse

this is not even the pioneer IPP in Vietnam...Others have gone online already and profitable.

Posted by Fake spotter > 2017-05-22 10:37 | Report Abuse

Jaks is more like a love starved frog that needs a young beautiful princess to kiss it and turn it back into a prince! An old man hugging and kissing it just won't work.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-05-22 10:45 | Report Abuse

Good company cannot go up one
You see Bitcoin no good also can up until to the out of this world
>:D
This is why bull run bob fat bet big into Apple and make it big, diversify and value didn't work

Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-05-22 10:53 | Report Abuse

Hi guys,

Jaks is a CYCLICAL STOCK!

See

prices of Jaks in years past

JAKS RESOURCES

Year...........Px Range Year low...............Year high....

2004......................1.06....................1.91
2005......................0.40....................2.14
2006......................0.40....................0.72
2007......................0.41....................1.51
2008......................0.26....................1.46
2009......................0.31....................0.49

Above figures extracted from STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE by Dynaquest (2009 March Edition)

So the best time to buy Jays was near its bottom of 40 sen

See

Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 16, 2014 03:00 PM | Report Abuse X

Whoa!

Top boss bought at 44 cents and above, millions of them. Anything below 40 cents is a bargain!

So don't wait or else Jaks jump Jump JUMP Up And Away!

And Jaks now near historical peak is at its most dangerous!

All the sorchai plus Uncle KYY & his stockmonkey are playing with fire!

Better sell Jaks and switch to laggard cyclical counters that haven't move yet

Posted by Beary > 2017-05-22 11:05 | Report Abuse

This is KC's polite way of saying JAKS is way way over valued.

It is possible to make some money off Uncle KYY with some hit and run.

But its a definite no no for long term investment at current price.

Same with Sendai.

Posted by Andry007 > 2017-05-22 11:07 | Report Abuse

Businessman don't manage risk, they take risk with big reward

Posted by Beary > 2017-05-22 11:15 | Report Abuse

A businessman who doesn't manage risks is an idiot destined for failure.

ROFLMAO...

Andry007 Businessman don't manage risk, they take risk with big reward
22/05/2017 11:07

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-22 11:45 | Report Abuse

beary you are looking at the man....not Jaks.

Jaks short term not exciting....but good long distance runner.

Posted by Beary > 2017-05-22 12:00 | Report Abuse

Stockmanny, to me big risk versus big reward is acceptable.

But very very big risks vs big rewards....no no no thanks.

That is called gambling.

Posted by valuelurker > 2017-05-22 12:31 | Report Abuse

Old man kcchongnz, better would be to refer to the PublicInvest research report and refer to the NPV as an estimation - the NPV is c. RM330mil

Then also refer to http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/29/jaks-eyes-irr-of-12-for-rm7bil-vietnam-plant/ where the MD says the IRR is only 12%

The PB analyst uses a 'mid-teens' IRR, an IRR higher than that guided by the MD, Ang, ie the NPV in the report is higher than what is guided in The Star's article

Jaks market cap is currently RM750mil

At current price, youre paying c. RM400mil for the construction and property business. AS IT STANDS, IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT IS NOWHERE NEAR THOSE VALUATIONS

I've stated this in another Jaks blog article

As usual, idiot admins take it down. Bloody idiots going around targeting my comments and removing those that have real info. You can only guess what their intentions are. Thousands of other nonsensical comments dont remove, remove the one which has real valuations

Posted by Patron > 2017-05-22 12:40 | Report Abuse

Valuelurker , really ? Admin removed your posts ? Even Cp Teh

Posted by Patron > 2017-05-22 12:44 | Report Abuse

Even Cp teh and Calvin can post

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-05-22 12:46 | Report Abuse

Icon, sorry late reply. I m taking a short break away. Will b back tomolo. Really good rest till just now.
All the best to u

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-22 12:53 | Report Abuse

kc

class home work

project IRR 12%
Project $ 7 billion

Borrowings 75%, equity 25%...assuming interest at 6%.

what is equity IRR?

what is estimated project profits before discounting for time value of money?


good exercise for value investors?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 22, 2017 12:38 PM | Report Abuse
you know what project IRR of 12% at 75% borrowings turns into returns on equity?
anyone knows what IRR of 12% on 7 billion ringgit translates into in term of profits?
It is huge...very very huge.
kc should have the brains to do the maths.


You really do not know accounting, project appraisal stuff, do you? But thanks for the information about the IRR.

I do not expect non-accountant to know what IRR is. A doctor is good at curing people. Housewives good at bringing up children etc. Engineer good at building power plant. I was a lead civil engineer before in a RM2b power plant project. But I really shocked a 60-year old experience accountant do not know what is NPV and what Is IRR.

Do you know what is opportunity cost? What is cost of capital? What is risk free rate? What is risk premium? What is risk and reward, etc.?

Do I need to do any calculations when the relevant number, the IRR is given and calculated by those in the industry?

Is 12% IRR good for a power plant project in Vietnam with all the risks I mentioned in my post?

those are the pertinent questions, accountant.

Posted by Beary > 2017-05-22 13:45 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha Stockmanny, you asked for it.

The Malays say padan muka.

KC already tries to give you face.

Its you who brought shame upon yourself.

All you are good at is bark bark bark all day long.

Posted by cend0l > 2017-05-22 13:51 | Report Abuse

Chong, you so technical, later the old man gets confused and may think that he has dementia.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-05-22 14:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by r°Moi > May 22, 2017 08:20 AM | Report Abuse
You are talking like JAKS China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co Ltd Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China all have no ideas how to evaluate a project... you who charge rm50 subscription fee is the only one in the whole world who know.... ego much much bigger than the super investor... and also definitely can do slander


did I say CPECC "have no ideas how to evaluate a project"?

did I say, "you who charge rm50 subscription fee is the only one in the whole world who know"?

Slander? which part of my article is "slander"? Show me and I will delete this post.

As a matter of fact, i have written about 300 posts in i3investor, which article, out of 300, is slander? Show me and I will delete them.

Or is it you who slander, ah Moi?

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 17:02 | Report Abuse

.



A non slanderous title... for this article... would certainly be...


"I do have sufficient information to evaluate JAKs Viet IPP project"



.

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 17:06 | Report Abuse

.



..... a big fat frog jumping all around?


Would certainly implies.... CPECC etc "have no ideas how to evaluate a project"....


.

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 17:10 | Report Abuse

.



An even more non slanderous and honest title... for this article... would certainly be...


"I do have sufficient information to evaluate JAKs Viet IPP project... but I am going to write something anyway to make it looks bad"



.

Posted by Beary > 2017-05-22 17:30 | Report Abuse

Moi, your comments perfectly reflect your empty head.

One big hollow SPACE with no substance.

Posted by r°Moi > 2017-05-22 17:36 | Report Abuse

.


Beary you are a moron period


.

Posted by boonwei98 > 2017-05-22 19:08 | Report Abuse

Reminds me of my kindergarten years when i see these comments hahahah

Posted by shunfeng2032 > 2017-05-22 20:28 | Report Abuse

Supply and demand will decides if the stock price will go up or down. Just like Fibon.