radzi, there is one cost increases that will become fixed cost(quite huge) commencing from Q12017 which is the pilot salary. what is your comment on this?
bravo Radzi bro...complicated n lenghty for a layman like me...bottom line ..ur prediction PBT of 76m looks good against 2Q16...definitely deserves indepth lookin into AAX....btw r u also a AA investor ?? if so any calculations pertaining to its predicted PBT too ???
acceso...no disrespect on ur comment but if u reckon radzi mathematical analysis is way off mark...then why dont u counter wt yours to show otherwise ??? wouldnt that be fair comment too ??come on...
Q1 PBT was actually RM 31 m. The model measure PBT and. ot PAT. Tax for AAX a nit haywire. Sometimes , deferred tax give positive gain. So I exclude tax for prediction ourpose
n if that is d case he/she shouldnt has made that irresponsible statement..bearing in mind that radzi put alot of effort into this analytical prediction...at least deserve more than a scantily sarcastic remark from him
at the PBT level 1Q 2017 is $ 32 million.....Rad has shown enough workings to indicate PBT of $ 78 million or even higher is well within reach...........except for the seasonally weaker Q2........
with revenue of > $1 bilion a quarter.....and looking at currency and oil movements this quarter,.....it can surprise everyone.
(b) Non-cancellable operating leases The future minimum lease payments and sublease receipts under non-cancellable operating leases are as follows: Group and Company 2016 2015 Future minimum lease payments RM’000 Future minimum sublease receipts RM’000 Future minimum lease payments RM’000 Future minimum sublease receipts RM’000 Not later than 1 year 1,024,614 315,396 987,113 293,769 Later than 1 year and not later than 5 years 4,094,546 1,261,582 3,920,000 1,206,650 Later than 5 years 3,893,976 954,762 4,700,684 1,214,852 9,013,136 2,531,740 9,607,797 2,715,271 The Group leases various aircraft and engines under non-cancellable operating lease agreements. The lease terms are between 10 to 12 years.
See these figures
Not later than 1 year 1,024,614 315
Hutang due to lease (hire purchase) is Rm1.024 Billions a year.
All there in the AAX Annual Report if any honest fella bother to check it out!
Calvintaneng, as far as i am concerned, operating lease involves no capitalisation of assets and thus no depreciation or amortisation. Therefore, how u came up with the depreciation figures? Where did u learn your half truth explanation skills? I will most likely avoid it
CalvinTanEng is just spamming and asked investor to purchase MUI.
I know a chinese uncle bought his MUI at 0.28 and got trapped for five years. MUI is making 7 quarters of continuous losses. No uncle , auntie and friend want to buy that counter but he keep on promoting.
Why he promotes MUI ? So that Tan Sri Koo Kay Ping can disposed shares to pay settlement to his ex-wife ? On 5th of June, Tan Sri Kay Ping disposed 5 million shares. KKP Holdings disposed 2.5 million shares. Nocross limited dispoded 2.5 million shares. So Lay holding disposed 2.5 million shares. Cherebum Investment (HK) limited disposed 2.5 million shares.
Market react and MUI holding fall again from 25 sen to 19 sen.
So, run run , sell sell... dont buy MUI Holdings and other shares CalvinTanEng promotes because the major shareholders are disposing all those shares to pay off his ex-wife.
Posted by MrPauper > Jun 12, 2017 08:05 PM | Report Abuse
Calvintaneng, as far as i am concerned, operating lease involves no capitalisation of assets and thus no depreciation or amortisation. Therefore, how u came up with the depreciation figures? Where did u learn your half truth explanation skills? I will most likely avoid it
There are 2 way of hire and hire purchase
1) Buy out right from Airbus. Take out loan from CIMB. Then pay CIMB monthly installment.
This is cheaper. But depreciation is borne by the purchaser
2) Hire a plane for a one year, 5 year or 10 year fixed period. In this case pay more as depreciation will be on the leasor. In this case prepare to pay a much higher lease. At the end of lease AAX can buy the planes outright.
In both cases the planes are in use & there is bound to depreciation loss.
Posted by radzi > Jun 12, 2017 08:08 PM | Report Abuse
If u eat what CalvinTanEng says , and buy MUI, you make immediate loss of 20%. Lagi mahu percaya ?
Calvin issue a buy call when Mui Bhd was 18 sen.
Star paper reported the divorce case.
Market chased it to 28 sen.
Now it retraced back near 18 sen & Calvin is buying even more.
Last time Calvin called for a buy on Pm Corp on 20th Sept 2013 even though Qtr reported a loss then
So what happended.
Pm Corp crossed 30 sen 3 times for 100% gain. Now all who bought Pm Corp at 15 sen already received 8 sen Cash Payout. All who bought Pm Corp at 15 sen on 20th Sept. 2013 are holding the share at 7 sen cost only
So Mui Bhd will unlock value as Divorce settlement unlock assets sale soon.
Logically, KKP should buy more shares when he sells asset because all the dividend from his asset sale will go more into his account. But he sells his shares . Can you understand what that means ?
Total no of securities after change Direct (units) 0 Direct (%) 0.00 Indirect (units) 1,395,355,289 Indirect (%) 47.58 Total (units) 1,395,355,289 Total (%) 47.58 Date of Notice 02-Jun-2017
Indirect/deemed interest (units) 1,397,855,289 Indirect/deemed interest (%) 47.667 Date of notice 04 May 2016
Check up Mui Bhd and see
On May 4th 2016
Tan Sri KKP owns 1,397,855,289 Mui Bhd shares
And 2 Jun 2017 is 1,395,355,289 Mui Bhd shares
So the actual selling is Rm2.5 million shares.
Since KKP owns Mui Bhd shares through many cross holding companies there figures are repeated. But only 2.5 millions were sold.
Radzi is very dangerous and shallow
You better go sign up an investment course with KcChongNz now
In the annual report, it mentioned depreciation is RM 113 million but leasing is RM 846 million. So, what does that means ? It means that AAX leases around 85% of its plane and pay lease for 846 million. And it owns the rest and pays depreciation RM 113 million.
If you consider leasing cost as part of depreciation, then total annual "depreciation" is RM 846+113 = RM 959 million. Round it to RM 1 billion. Is paying RM 1 billion a big figure ?
Since Calvin is from Singapore, let us compare with Singapore Airlines.
Singapore Airlines is going to land a USD $ 53 billion debt in 2018 or RM 250 BILLION debt. Assuming 5% depreciation rate, Singapore Airlines is going to pay RM 12.5 BILLION depreciation in a year. But its net profit per year is only RM 900 million (as good as Air Asia).
So, as a Singaporean , Calvin Tan. Is the debt Singapore Airline is taking worth it or not ????? You land yourself back in your accusation of AAX.
I think Singaporean Calvin Tan is discriminating. He say RM 1 billion debt by AAX is bad. Now, he will say RM 250 billion debt of Singapore Airline is good.
Well, I think Calvin just does not know finance. If we show a Malaysian company AAX and AirAsia, all that come from him is the debt is bad. But when Singapore Airline is shown, he will say the mega super RM 250 BILLION debt of Singapore Airline is ok or good.
Calvin distrust a Malaysia company and put high respect on Singapore Airline. What Singapore Airline do is to copycat AAX and Airasia.. How is that brown cow ?
Thanks valuegrowth, so 25% is owned. So, leasing cost is high. No wonder, AAX has an order of around 60 new NEO planes which will replace the leased planes in 12 years time.
Sorry I deleted my original comments as it's wrong. AAX owned 6 out of their 30 aircraft in operation, the remaining 24 are under operating leases.
So for 24 aircraft under operating leases the monthly leasing rate is USD 710,000. Consider the low age of their aircraft, the rate is reasonable. A brand new A330 could cost about USD 890,000 per aircraft. Their depreciation rate of USD 381,000 per owned aircraft is really on the low side. Could be due to bulk discount.
buying into airasia x is buying into a business that you believe that can be turaround with sustainable profit. as air asia x has the same DNA as its parent, i hope it will be able to do it. at current price, i am paying only 50% of what the first investor had paid since ipo and right issue with free warrrant. the company had jsu turaround last year and i believe it needs a bit longer time to get everything in order, same like airaisa, in new market like india, philipines and japan, they are loisng money in the beginning.
Radzi's analysis is a good attempt at providing some insight into the influences of fuel cost, and currency exchange rate on profitability. However, without the volume consumed (or, to be really meaningful, normalized consumption- as this includes the very important factor - USAGE EFFICIENCY), the result derived can be totally distorted. This will invariably leads into a case of "statistics lies". I amnot saying that you are intentional about it, but the akibat (result) is thus.
As for MUI,we can be sitting around for a long time to wait for the durians to drop. But, too often, major shareholders always find ways to bleed out the values until there is only bone left - only to benefit themselves, but screw the minority shareholders.
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Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-12 13:54 | Report Abuse
that is very good work....even if I don't understand every thing.
3 months target, 50 sen back in play.