Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 19:04 | Report Abuse

lizi...I got Jaks at 50 sen...what do u think? cut loss or cut profit?

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-12-08 19:05 | Report Abuse

Dun underestimate qqq3.He is like a cockroach,a 'siu kiong'.This type never dies.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-08 19:10 | Report Abuse

My sifu tell me always buy lower than him. So anything below 50sen just hoot?

Posted by valuelurker > 2018-12-08 19:13 | Report Abuse

Old man icon, you sialang youre going to lose your pants

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-12-08 19:14 | Report Abuse

Sorry,icon dun wear pants.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 19:18 | Report Abuse

why u call me cockroach...so unfair....I just a small trader, trading also cockroach?

Posted by valuelurker > 2018-12-08 19:31 | Report Abuse

1. Vietnam IPP construction profits are not real (and there is a very elegant and simple explanation for this...)

2. Then using the not real IPP profits and assigning a multiple (based on sector averages etc) is misleading

Jan 1, 2020 self award a contract RM1 bil with 50% margins to be completed Dec 31, 2020, net profit RM500 mil for FY2020, so equity value at PE 10 is RM 5 billion?

When the profits are 'accounting profits'? And even if you take it as 'real' they are one-off (power plant constructions are not part of Jaks normal business; and if you think Jaks is able to procure another IPP (let alone finance it - look at the gearing and the cash calls lol), well just that one and its sinking like the titanic...)

Then again, even the two analysts covering Jaks are doing the same idiotic thing lol (with access to management some more) all that reading and studying and theory is useless if you do not have the raw iq

And all this without even touching on the actual vietnam IPP's discounted cashflows...

Profits attributable to Jaks 30% vietnam IPP is USD $ 20-25 mil per year. In 2020 a mere two years, all will be able to see for yourselves

Posted by rogers123 > 2018-12-08 19:48 | Report Abuse

kyy is selling..... icon8888 is in big trouble. Don't promote jaks and sell silently...

Posted by rogers123 > 2018-12-08 19:49 | Report Abuse

Qqq is kyy dog son?

Posted by rogers123 > 2018-12-08 19:49 | Report Abuse

ooooo.... sorry godson. Hahahaha

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-08 21:17 | Report Abuse

If it is so easy to create fake "accounting profits", I can assure you that Apple will not be the biggest company in the world.

Posted by pussycats > 2018-12-08 21:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 8, 2018 07:04 PM | Report Abuse

lizi...I got Jaks at 50 sen...what do u think? cut loss or cut profit?///





qqq , u are a pro trader, still need lizi advice kah??? LoL

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-08 22:34 | Report Abuse

Say you own 40% of a company which proposed 1 warrant for 2 shares held, and the warrant is not underwritten. If everyone subscribe for the warrant, your shareholding remains at 40%. However, if you are the only one taking up the warrant, your shareholding increases to 50%.

Hence, those who subscribed for the warrant would prefer the rest don't. Under-subscription benefits those who subscribed. It also benefits the mother shares as there is less dilution as less warrants are issued.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-12-08 22:39 | Report Abuse

The profit made from Power plant construction is not real profit, it is just paper profit used to payback investment in Power plant.
No physical cash taken out from this construction work.

Want to buy Jaks, wait until power plant is completed.
Are you sure power plant can be completed in time ?
Jaks is famous for not complete work in time in all Malaysian projects.

Posted by newbie911 > 2018-12-08 22:46 | Report Abuse

If uncle sai lang mfcb in last 3 years...then earn a lot

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 23:09 | Report Abuse

Its a US$ 1.9 billion project, 30% stake US$/RM say 4

if projects works out well, minimum earnings yield say 6% to 10% should give $ 140 m - $ 230 million pre tax profits to Jaks....per annum....

if does not work out well...then....too bad, better luck next time.

How much is that worth I also don't know...go ask KC Chong from NZ...he got a lot of calculations one.

Posted by Acon888 > 2018-12-08 23:14 | Report Abuse

Myself in the construction industry, I think the biggest risk is project delay. Most of time, project will never complete on time. The projection of profit should allow for a delay of up to 6-10 months.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 23:16 | Report Abuse

in cash flow terms...ie before depreciation ....no one will undertake a project without it being 12 - 15% returns per annum....not 6% to 10 % anymore......

Posted by GoldenShares > 2018-12-08 23:19 | Report Abuse

Koon Yew Yin : Sad to say that Jaks does not comply with my golden rule anymore because it has too much borrowings to finance its properties during the current depressed market. Jaks will continue to report losses in the next 2 or 3 years until the completion of the power plant.

Posted by GoldenShares > 2018-12-08 23:21 | Report Abuse

Icon.....Icon, : )

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 23:22 | Report Abuse

pussycats > Dec 8, 2018 09:27 PM | Report Abuse

qqq , u are a pro trader, still need lizi advice kah??? LoL
=========

for me? If I have to wait a few months to get 70 sen, I also will do it...so should u.....

Posted by GoldenShares > 2018-12-08 23:27 | Report Abuse

don't think kyy will buy back, without kyy to push n continue to report losses in the next 2 or 3 years, do u think the price will move higher in 2019, : )

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-08 23:29 | Report Abuse

d by GoldenShares > Dec 8, 2018 11:27 PM | Report Abuse

don't think kyy will buy back, without kyy to push n continue to report losses in the next 2 or 3 years, do u think the price will move higher in 2019, : )
==========

good question...but things can change....

Posted by Choon Soo Tan > 2018-12-08 23:37 | Report Abuse

FLBHD better

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-08 23:39 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 8, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse

Its a US$ 1.9 billion project, 30% stake US$/RM say 4

if projects works out well, minimum earnings yield say 6% to 10% should give $ 140 m - $ 230 million pre tax profits to Jaks....per annum....

ME: WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY "EARNINGS YIELD" HERE?
A POWER PLANT INVESTMENT RETURN IS MEASURED BY EARNINGS YIELD?
"MINIMUM" HAS A RANGE OF NUMBERS? WHAT KIND OF MATHS IS THAT?
WHAT KIND OF CHEKAI "ACCOUNTANT" YOU ARE?

if does not work out well...then....too bad, better luck next time.

How much is that worth I also don't know...go ask KC Chong from NZ...he got a lot of calculations one.

EVEN WITH YOUR ASSUMED FIGURES, YOU STILL CAN'T FIND OUT HOW MUCH IT IS WORTH? AND HOW MUCH IT IS WORTH PER SHARE OF JAKS?

DO YOU KNOW THAT WILL BE A VERY SIMPLE DISCOUNT CASH FLOWS ANALYSIS?

I THOUGHT YOU SAID BESIDES THONG, YOU ARE THE BEST ANALYST?

OR ARE YOU THE BEST BULLSHITER?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-09 00:06 | Report Abuse

no lah....kc....if it is rubbish in, rubbish out...if it is not rubbish...no need to go further ....good enough for me....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-09 00:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 9, 2018 12:06 AM | Report Abuse
no lah....kc....if it is rubbish in, rubbish out...if it is not rubbish...no need to go further ....good enough for me....


So you now surrender and admit that the statement below by you is another rubbish talks?


Posted by qqq3 > Dec 8, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse
Its a US$ 1.9 billion project, 30% stake US$/RM say 4
if projects works out well, minimum earnings yield say 6% to 10% should give $ 140 m - $ 230 million pre tax profits to Jaks....per annum....
if does not work out well...then....too bad, better luck next time.
How much is that worth I also don't know...go ask KC Chong from NZ...he got a lot of calculations one.

Posted by Sslee > 2018-12-09 00:33 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Article on how to make sure win decision. Must read if you wish to “huat –huat” in your stock investment year 2019.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/185816.jsp

Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-09 00:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-09 00:36 | Report Abuse

woah...SSLee can actually write an article without mentioning qqq3 or stockman or desa or KYY....I am impressed.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-12-09 00:41 | Report Abuse

Millionaire had retired from I3 for good, wasting time to listen lies after lies here.
SSLee is right, avoid this person, you will "huat" forever.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-12-09 00:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-09 00:53 | Report Abuse

Zhuge_Liang > Dec 9, 2018 12:46 AM | Report Abuse

KCChong should listen to SSLee's advice, avoid this person, you will "huat" forever.
Do not waste your time to entertain this liar here.
=========

out of 6,000 posts I made., I cannot recall any lie I have made.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2018-12-09 00:59 | Report Abuse

MFCB power plant's operation cost is much lower.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-09 01:12 | Report Abuse

Considering the sentiment.

Not a bad idea for a punt.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 06:55 | Report Abuse

But again, since there are so many stocks now at mega sales...there are lots of better punts now

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-09 07:14 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, can name some good stocks that you think can buy at this level ? I have some spare cash . And I also see you are a careful fellow, so your choices should be quite safe

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 08:43 | Report Abuse

Yr airasia loh...but i m more on its cw..

Yr supermax also not bad mah...

Why so much of emphasis on yr 4% inv in jaks??

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 08:45 | Report Abuse

Yr mnrb also worths more a punt than jaks lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 08:46 | Report Abuse

Investing in the above 3 stocks i can sleep well at night than investing in jaks...

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 08:47 | Report Abuse

Yr previous picks are all better than yr current picks..sifu...

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 08:54 | Report Abuse

Better go to temple to pray...

Hope u will come back in 2019..

I still heavily depend on you to cari makan one..sifu

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-09 08:56 | Report Abuse

Good choices. You are really good.

Thumbs up

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

R u praising yrself indirectly? I just follow yr picks....

Posted by Koon Bee > 2018-12-09 09:23 | Report Abuse

Icon sifu, please dont fall in love for any stock.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-12-09 09:55 | Report Abuse

Icon have unlimited money to sailaing in any stock , look like icon do very well in 2016,2017,2018

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 10:12 | Report Abuse

If i think u r not honest u will know fm my comments for sure...what do u think?

Just i couldnt figure out why u fell in love so deep in such a holland stock like jaks despite u claimed u only hv 4% of yr funds in jaks...

So i think u r still honest...but most likely kena jampi..better go temple quick quick...

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 10:15 | Report Abuse

In 2014 i also fell in love ( or mayb kena jampi..) in one holland stock n my exposure in it was more than 10 times of yr current 4% in jaks...

Suddenly i wake up in yr johotin call n decided to cut loss n all in johotin wa..

The rest is history

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-09 10:17 | Report Abuse

I dont believe u are another promoter in jaks like qqq3 n DK66

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-09 10:41 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, Could Mong Duong 2 be a closer comparison for Jaks' earnings after the completion of the power plant ?

AES-VCM Mong Duong Power Company, a joint venture between AES Corporation (51%), Posco Energy (30%) and China Investment Corporation (19%), developed the 1,240MW Mong Duong-2 (MD2) coal-fired thermal power plant in the Quang Ninh Province of Vietnam.

The power plant was constructed on a build-operate-transfer (BOT) basis and comprises two generating units of 620MW gross capacity each.

Mong Duong-2 is Vietnam’s first and biggest coal-fired BOT project and is also the biggest private sector power project undertaken in the country. The $2.1bn project was developed with 100% foreign direct investment. Ownership will be transferred to the government of Vietnam after 25 years of operation.

Mong Duong 2 is a very close model for the Jaks power plant as;
1. Both in northern Vietnam
2. Both about 1,200MW capacity
3. Both using domestic anthracite coal
4. Both under foreign BOT guaranteed by Vietnam Government
5. Both projects cost around US$2b
6. Both Power purchase agreements signed with EVN
7. Both coal supply agreements signed with Vinacomin
8. Both under max 18 years loan tenure allowed by Vietnam government

Based on financing agreement of Mong Duong 2, the BOT company to maintain debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.4x – 1.5x

http://www.academia.edu/26270684/Mong_Duong_Power_Project_the_Largest_...

The ratio of (Operating income before interest and depreciation) / (Total loan principal and interest payments) must be above 1.5x otherwise the loan defaults.

As the loan is non-recourse in nature and the collateral is a non-movable object with no market resale value, the Banks would require very high certainty in earnings. In this case the capacity payment alone in the PPA which guarantee fixed annual payment for the tenure of the project must at least meet the DSCR requirements.

Based on Jaks' Vietnam IPP loan of US$1.402b, interest of 6% (Est), Loan tenure of 18 years
Annual principal repayment = 1.402b / 18 = 77.8m
1st year interest repayment = 1.402b x 6% = 84.1m

Based on 1.5x DSCR, Minimum operating income EBITA = (77.8+84.1) x 1.5 = US$242.85m

Annual depreciation = 1.8685b / 25 = 74.7m

Hence, Net Operating income = US$242.85 – 75.7 – 74.7 = US$92.45m

Jaks 40% = US$92.45 x 40% x 4.15(us/rm) = RM153m / 546m = RM0.28 EPS

In practice, the earnings must be much higher to be of comfort to protect the company from loan default risk due to earning fluctuations.

ON CASH FLOW BASIS,

Information sourced from AES corporation which owns 51% of Mong Duong 2.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_presentations/2016/AES-Q4-FY-...

Page 52 Mong Duong distributed US$46m to AES in 2016

https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2017/q4/...

Page 46 Mong Duong distributed US$51m in 2017

Therefore, Mong Duong distributed US$90m in 2016 and US$100m in 2017 to its shareholders


Base on the same projection, Jaks 40% = US$100m x 40% x 4.15 = RM166m / 546m = RM0.30 cash flow per share