Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 17:46 | Report Abuse

remember i3 2016...

every young graduate come here to promote their own stocks....value here, value there....cash in bank, PE , NTA, Balance Sheet dissected....where are they today?


all die already la.....

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 17:48 | Report Abuse

IN 2018 I3 COMPETITION EVERYBODY LOSE MONIES LOH...!!

ONLY AHMOI NOT SO FINANCIAL SAVVY WHO INVESTED IN FIXED DEPOSITS AT 4% PA MAKE MONIES MAH....!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 05:45 PM | Report Abuse

What happened last year to Bursa (2018)?

Many in this forum lost their money. Why? Do an honest analysis of your activities and share with us here.

During the dot-com bubble in the late 90s, Buffett was laughed at for his underperformance. After the dot-com bubble, Buffett and his age-old value investing in old economy stocks became respectable again. There is a similar lesson here for Malaysians investing in the Bursa.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 17:48 | Report Abuse

stockraider and leno were stuck with a few stocks for years. They too have bought and held these stocks for years.


MNRB
Insas
PRKCorp
and a few others.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 17:49 | Report Abuse

It is difficult to have a great discussion with raider, for a simple reason, he is not honest.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 17:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 17:51 | Report Abuse

I beg u raider, don't pollute the place.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 17:52 | Report Abuse

>>>>
http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,56348.msg1083872.html#msg1083872

leno
Earl
*******

Posts: 10,636
View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Re: hello people !
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2013, 12:18:04 PM »
Quote
All ***** must BUY list
1. INSAS
2. MNRB
3. PMCorp
4. PRKCorp

>>>>>


Even today, raider talks of the same stocks. So much for his strategy.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 17:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 17:57 | Report Abuse

To take raider seriously, he should at least showed some credibility.

Otherwise, he is quite a nuisance at best.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 17:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 17:58 | Report Abuse

And as for my 10 year investment in ql? Selling eggs and chickens is a very simple business to understand. You see business like it in every country and market from thailand to Singapore to Philippines to Indonesia. In Malaysia you see companies like lay Hong all the time. It is very high capex and very low margins. The growth is snail paced, profits are low, margins are low.

Then you see companies like ql which start from a gruesome business like layhong and maximize every single cent into new business units successfully, growing from 300 million to a billion in revenue quarterly, while in the same period and having a head start companies like layhong stuck in the 100+ million range for the longest time.

Going from a dead textile business into the biggest reinsurance company ever, and going from a dead chicken business into the most vertically integrated food production business ever in Malaysia, is why pe50 is understandable, and why I have yet to sell until today.

But I will sell when the story changes, which is why buy and forget is stupid. Those who don't know ql compare it to pos Malaysia. Those who know ql are looking to the growth patterns of a cp foods.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 17:59 | Report Abuse

raid...u are a nuisance....

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:00 | Report Abuse

u check back ur old record lah....over 10 yrs loh...when did u really beat raider other than u fluke win 2018 leh ??

thats why raider ask u to take the challenge....but u no balls how leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 05:56 PM | Report Abuse

From 2014 to now, the KLCI has dropped 8%.

Last year, my portfolio had performed very well. Well, as raider will know, Nestle did go up 100%. Many of my other stocks contributed to the overall gains too.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:03 | Report Abuse

As for Mr. 1015 sharing ... thanks a lot.

You have awoken me to at least another fact. Sometimes, I get less focused.

Often the best place to put your money is in a stock which is already in your present portfolio.

Also, another lesson, have the cash and courage to put more. Uncertainty will always be there. Today, tomorrow, next year, 5 years or even in past years.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:04 | Report Abuse

What so special selling chicken, eggs and palmoil leh ??

It is overvalue PE 50x mah....when crash come....u will caught unaware loh..!! this is what happen to topglove, padini & hengyuan mah..!!


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 05:58 PM | Report Abuse

And as for my 10 year investment in ql? Selling eggs and chickens is a very simple business to understand. You see business like it in every country and market from thailand to Singapore to Philippines to Indonesia. In Malaysia you see companies like lay Hong all the time. It is very high capex and very low margins. The growth is snail paced, profits are low, margins are low.

Then you see companies like ql which start from a gruesome business like layhong and maximize every single cent into new business units successfully, growing from 300 million to a billion in revenue quarterly, while in the same period and having a head start companies like layhong stuck in the 100+ million range for the longest time.

Going from a dead textile business into the biggest reinsurance company ever, and going from a dead chicken business into the most vertically integrated food production business ever in Malaysia, is why pe50 is understandable, and why I have yet to sell until today.

But I will sell when the story changes, which is why buy and forget is stupid. Those who don't know ql compare it to pos Malaysia. Those who know ql are looking to the growth patterns of a cp foods.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:05 | Report Abuse

If u like cp...go n buy cp loh....why waste time with overvalue QL leh ??

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:05 | Report Abuse

chicken business is chicken business lah, when bird flu comes, the chicken die

period

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:05 | Report Abuse

when corn price goes up, chicken bleed instead of lay eggs

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 18:06 | Report Abuse

I trust 1015 has the intellectual capacity to handle his affairs....but what about the other 99.9% of the people who also want to be rich through stock market?


go attend seminars? tutorials? lol....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:07 | Report Abuse

Stockraider, u win! You are the great sifu. Everyone else is rubbish, compared to you. You are the great investor and super value trader!

Too bad we don't have to show everyone our remisier record of 10 year portfolio investment details, otherwise then we would be able to really compare your 12 year portfolio performance till 2022 vs ql stock performance in that same period.

It's easy to say whose equipment is longer when we don't have to show and tell.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:11 | Report Abuse

Insurance business is the same everywhere, is what you do with the float that makes the difference. To say that ql only does chickens is to say Berkshire only does insurance. Chicken and surimi are probably the same thing I guess.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:12 | Report Abuse

Mr koon challenge raider on this issue b4 loh...!!

I ask him to deposits his challenge monies with a lawyer b4 raider show record....but kyy chicken out loh...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 06:07 PM | Report Abuse

Stockraider, u win! You are the great sifu. Everyone else is rubbish, compared to you. You are the great investor and super value trader!

Too bad we don't have to show everyone our remisier record of 10 year portfolio investment details, otherwise then we would be able to really compare your 12 year portfolio performance till 2022 vs ql stock performance in that same period.

It's easy to say whose equipment is longer when we don't have to show and tell.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:17 | Report Abuse

if QL is indeed such a good company, why would its net borrowings increased from RM376 mil in December 2008 to RM914 mil in 2018 ?

its ROE is about 10%, quite reasonable, I would say. But that was arrived at based on huge gearing

how much longer can it do that ? the company is growing itself into bankruptcy

is this the kind of company that Buffett will own ?

come on lah...

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:17 | Report Abuse

Ok, stockraider is super good investor. May I listen to your advice one day.

As for why I don't buy cp foods? It's the same as why you don't buy brk. Every business has a terminal value. Why should you buy a business with 28 billion revenue and slowing growth, versus buying a company with 3 billion revenue, higher margins and escalating growth?

My answer is clear.

But learning a lot of things here. Value trading is a thing! I look forward to seeing how it goes.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:17 | Report Abuse

In my discussion, I am fair and reasonable.

As much as possible, I try to understand the deeper issues, basically for my own learning and education. I hope to learn from many here with various strategies, of their successes and mistakes.

Those who share their investing successes and mistakes genuinely and truthfully, I am grateful.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:18 | Report Abuse

QL is at best an ordinary company, no way it has moat

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:18 | Report Abuse

maybe a small longkang it has

definitely no moat

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:22 | Report Abuse

u no need to listen to raider loh....u already has a bet with raider over 2 yrs mah...unlike this 3iii, has no balls to up challenge...but everyday sing his old hag stocks belittling margin of safety investors like sslee, calvin tan, leno and raider mah...!!


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

Ok, stockraider is super good investor. May I listen to your advice one day.

As for why I don't buy cp foods? It's the same as why you don't buy brk. Every business has a terminal value. Why should you buy a business with 28 billion revenue and slowing growth, versus buying a company with 3 billion revenue, higher margins and escalating growth?

My answer is clear.

But learning a lot of things here. Value trading is a thing! I look forward to seeing how it goes.

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Social Forum >> Forum Thread >> Add Reply

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:23 | Report Abuse

want to see moat ? go and check out Nestle

In dec 2008, it made RM400 mil net profit, net borrowings RM82 mil

In September 2018, it made RM800 mil net profit, net borrowings RM208 mil

THAT, my friend, is moat

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 18:24 | Report Abuse

d by rajachulan > Jan 21, 2019 06:02 PM | Report Abuse

business sense part
==========

that is surely the tougher part....Bufalo students who attack Long just don't know what they are talking about...Their idol will scold them.

As for Me and Icon....I just make fun of all the fake Bufalos.....

3iii is ok, Long is ok....

SSlee is a novice, raider is a 1 year experience X 10....( both talk too much.)

Now, Icon shows me reinvestment risk.....I like that...

for my 20+ son, I only wish....

.only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO.... because 99% of the stocks are really rubbish from investment point of view.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:25 | Report Abuse

calvintan is also not honest either.

Do you know how many stocks he own?

When a certain stock does a momentum upturn, he turns up gloating of his success.

This is not investing at all.

Many of his stocks have been in his portfolio for so long, as good as buy and hold!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:26 | Report Abuse

could u calibrate how honest r u leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 06:25 PM | Report Abuse

calvintan is also not honest either.

Do you know how many stocks he own?

When a certain stock does a momentum upturn, he turns up gloating of his success.

This is not investing at all.

Many of his stocks have been in his portfolio for so long, as good as buy and hold!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:29 | Report Abuse

raider should know very well that I am absolutely honest.

For years, my stocks have been the same few stocks. Not much changes.

It is quite ironic seeing raider talking about my stocks as if they were new.

Did raider mention I asked people to buy Nestle at PE 50 today?

If raider can show me this post, I can show all in this forum a blatant liar in our midst.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:29 | Report Abuse

Very heated debate

X P

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:33 | Report Abuse

THATS WHY U NEED TO LOOK AT 3iii comment carefully & logically below loh.....!!

1st of all Hengyuan as growth stock acheived superb return of 6 baggers in 1 yr compare with growth stock like Nestle & QL which take 6 to 10 yrs in order to achieve same result loh...!!

If u look at Hengyuan at the height of its eps is rm 3.00 per share and it achieved growth rate of 200% pa and pe of about 5x mah...!!

U ask yourself Nestle and QL after achieving growth over 10 yrs compare to Hengyuan 1 yr...what is their growth rate leh >> Roughly 15% pa average but look at their latest PE exceeding 50x and growth rate about 15% pa loh...!!

Now u compare to hengyuan at its height Pe 5x and Growth rate 200% pa, when raider shout to buy at rm 15.00, is it excessive without looking at hindsight leh ??

If u benchmark with Nestle & Ql Pe 50x u r talking of valuation of Rm 150 for hengyuan loh ?? Raider discount more than 70% just ask for rm 45, already conservative mah....!!

So raider shout buy Rm 15.00 With TP Rm 45.00 loh....u see the logic ?
Don forget in fact raider had been shouting buy Rm 3.00, Rm 5.00, Rm 7.00, Rm 9.00, Rm 12.00, Rm 14.00 and Rm 15.00 all the way bcos earnings on quarterly basis, had been growing very strongly mah...!!

Hengyuan did rise to Rm 19.00, but subsequently earnings disappointment appear and share price fall below raider shout price rm 15.00, so logically, u must lari kuat kuat mah...!! Bcos the earlier eps of rm 3.00 and growth no longer valid mah...!!

But what did 3iii did leh ?? Created so much noise & confuse the i3 investors from running for safety fast bcos of bad faith, anger, envy and revenge mah...!!

He did this evil act disregarding the plight & interest of hengyuan investor loh, raider shout so loud...but some of the sound & message had been neutralise by 3iii evil act thus did not get across some i3 loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:34 | Report Abuse

Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:35 | Report Abuse

Quite the opposite. Selling chicken and eggs are the most compkicated business in the world. Bird flu, raw material fluctuation, lack of pricing power, risk of oversupply due to Low entry barrier, etc. It is the worst kind of business you can imagine


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 05:58 PM | Report Abuse

And as for my 10 year investment in ql? Selling eggs and chickens is a very simple business to understand.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:36 | Report Abuse

Dear icon8888,

I'm finishing my read of stoneco prospectus, and formulating my reasoning behind why berkshire Hathaway and ant financial (Alibaba) is buying the fintech company. It has the same reasons as to why I believe ql is a good buy.

Once I'm done, I'll try to do a long game on why they paid 22pe 2018 earnings for stoneco.

Gearing is reducing, it's use of debt is far more efficient than majority of the other listed chicken and eggs companies in all the listed companies in other countries of ASEAN than I have read through.

The main ideas I had were similar in terms of economies of scale, vertical integration, and business unit replication.

Personally, I believe in 12 years ql will hit matured business growth and end terminal value and I'm looking at 10-15 billion of yearly revenue and 1 billion in earnings. By that time they will have negative growth in doing capex to generate growth and will start giving out fatter dividend of 3-5% like the other similar companies.

I have followed 10 other companies financial report in other countries with 10+ years in similar performance factors, so I probably have a good idea of how ql will turn out.

Or I may be wrong. But I started with 200k in 2009, so I think I'm still up.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:37 | Report Abuse

I know chicken business better than anybody else. It is a shit business. Totally no moat due to ow entry barrier.

You thought only QL can do it ah ? I can raise chicken at home you know ?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

Chicken and egg business very predictable. I like predictable.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Jan 21, 2019 06:18 PM | Report Abuse

QL is at best an ordinary company, no way it has moat
===========

that is not true....QL has happy and satisfied shareholders, that is invaluable. Don't short this kind of company....u can die if u try.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

Everybody can raise chicken at home. You can grow to 3 billion business with chickens?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

you can trade chicken stock when raw mat is low

but you can't hold for long term

especially at 50 times PER

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 18:41 | Report Abuse

If u do it well like thailand cp it can be good business bcos ur dealing with all kind of food mah...which is essential mah...!!

CP is one of the largest listed co in thailand mah...!!

but thailand cp trade at a valuation far much more reasonable than ql loh.....!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 21, 2019 06:37 PM | Report Abuse

I know chicken business better than anybody else. It is a shit business. Totally no moat due to ow entry barrier.

You thought only QL can do it ah ? I can raise chicken at home you know ?