Posted by Koon Bee > 2019-01-20 14:47 | Report Abuse

I support u Icon

Posted by cheoky > 2019-01-20 15:27 | Report Abuse

Sifu

Posted by nearownkira > 2019-01-20 16:15 | Report Abuse

I agree with the article.Becoming an investor does not mean you holding your all stock long term, it is just that usually investor will hold some of the stock long term as long as it is growing shareholder value. You will sell once it is not growing shareholder value. the value that you determined is your Minimum IRR.

what I can add on is the holding term for stock investment is getting shorter and shorter as time goes by.

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2019-01-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

in summary there is no such things as buy and forget. No matter how good is the company, investor must still work hard to read the quarterly report, annual report attending AGM if possible and follow up closely of the company news. Not all biz are good at all time, some are very cyclical and some may be obsolete if the company not able to keep abreast with the market trend. The classic example is Nokia. It is not so much of whether it is short term or long term investment but is about the reason to continue to hold on the stocks or to sell the stocks. Reason can be anything some may based on TA and some may based on FA depending on their own skill. The buy and sell could happen in a very short term if you find there is no reason to continue to hold.

Important is you must have your own reason to buy and own reason to sell and not follow others. Do not afraid of making mistake but more important is to improve your skill from time to time.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-20 16:21 | Report Abuse

Yeap

Posted by Lyo82 > 2019-01-20 17:44 | Report Abuse

Long term, short term, trading, dividends, value or reverse inveting.. All are good strategies as long as they produce decent return. It can be a combination of several or all, not necessarily restricted to one only.

The matter is, do you know how to apply them?

Posted by pathfinder > 2019-01-20 18:22 | Report Abuse

Hold forever only applies if you are operating within a world class economy. Bursa Malaysia has gone nowhere the past 4 years whereas the US stock market has chugged along at a good clip. I opine a buy and hold for catalytic event to be the best modus operandi here.

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-20 18:24 | Report Abuse

Thk u icon sifu

Posted by pussycats > 2019-01-20 18:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks Icon sifu

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 19:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 19:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 19:48 | Report Abuse

Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on 4 or 5 year averages.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 20:01 | Report Abuse

I did not take 3iii seriously previously because I did not know he practises what he preaches...now that I know, I respect.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 20:03 | Report Abuse

most of the time people don't practise what they preach one....all for a show , mostly.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:24 | Report Abuse

I am not advocating hyper activities

I agree too much buying and selling is not good at all

I am actually writing an article to elaborate this point by quoting some of 3iii's materials

All I am saying is that inactivity should not be a strait jacket that forbid you from exiting an investment over short term if it makes sense

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-01-20 20:29 | Report Abuse

Could u elaborate how are you normally deal with your inner self as well. (psychological/mentally stressing when share price tank futher)

Thank you so much, would like to know how you deal with it

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:38 | Report Abuse

Diversify is one effective way

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:39 | Report Abuse

You will only be stressed if your exposure is big, right ?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 20:42 | Report Abuse

so after this, can we say all investors are traders?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:43 | Report Abuse

Secondly, only buy stocks that you feel can ultimately recover (let’s say, within 3 to 5 years) in the event things turn sour

If you buy an ACE counter that sells tickets to the moon, you will be stressed out when price collapse. But if you buy perstima and it’s profit get hit by higher raw material cost, you know it will finally bounce back in latest, few years time

Posted by VenFx > 2019-01-20 20:45 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 20, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

Diversify is one effective way

ME : TO ADD BIT, SPREADING ENTRY AT SEVERAL STAGES ... ( BEST IF CAN BUY , WHEN OTHERS IN FEAR WITH THE FA REMAIN VALID ).

Posted by VenFx > 2019-01-20 20:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Jan 20, 2019 08:42 PM | Report Abuse

so after this, can we say all investors are traders?

ME: propbability bro, i choose both on the same counter... no conflict at all .

Posted by VenFx > 2019-01-20 20:51 | Report Abuse

Not bad if set up for the below portion :

40% investing
40% trading(not speculating)
20% cash ( this can add spice to trading or cushioning the our investment during time of uncertainty )

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:54 | Report Abuse

I don’t believe we should ever be in a position whereby we need to manage our mental state in order to cope with portfolio losses

If that is actually the case, that means there is something wrong with the portfolio

To qualify as investing, stocks suffering paper loss must be able to recover ultimately, given some time. I mentioned that in my article “...... and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.”

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 20:55 | Report Abuse

If you know that things will ultimately recover, then the stress will automatically go away. Because you know that it is just a temporary blip and no permanent impairment. No real money has been or will be lost. Why stressed ?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 20:57 | Report Abuse

let me summarize if I understood correctly:
.........................................

traders are those who expect after their buy it should only go up to a certain target price to sell...and if it comes down, they cut lost?

investors are those who do not expect the price to go up or come down...they just expect that it will 'eventually' go up to a certain target level where they will sell

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 21:11 | Report Abuse

ok...good job Icon in defining.

It has always been an unclear boundary for me between traders and investors...

key take away: no long holding period required for Investing

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 21:12 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Jan 20, 2019 09:06 PM | Report Abuse

As you correctly point out, if things turn sour and you need to cut loss, you are a trader. Because you are not giving the stock time to rectify the problem (or their fundamentals simply do not allow that to happen, even after 100 years). Having enough time to heal the wound is an important feature of investing , because it significantly reduce your reinvestment risk. Which means your portfolio is unlikely to experience major shrinkage. Which means you have a path to Long term sustainable wealth creation.
=========

lol...tell that to those property and construction counters last year...

at present level....maybe u got a case now....too late for any thing....

but holding on to yerterdays stocks really no fun one...better...in the words of KYY...put into a faster running horse....and hope not jumping from kettle into the fire.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 21:15 | Report Abuse

KYY jumps from Jaks into Hibiscus w and carimin, he says faster running horse..... but race not yet over......

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 21:16 | Report Abuse

As you correctly point out, if things turn sour and you need to cut loss, you are a trader. Because you are not giving the stock time to rectify the problem (or their fundamentals simply do not allow that to happen, even after 100 years).

———-

traders are those who expect after their buy it should only go up to a certain target price to sell...and if it comes down, they cut lost?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 21:17 | Report Abuse

The first sentence incorrect. Investors (my definition) expect the price to go up within short term of let’s say, one to two years (due to stock pick based on Uncle Koon golden rule), but in the event things turn sour, the stock must be good enough to be held so that can ultimately recover. The holding period should not be more than 5 years (or you might as well crystalise the loss. Don’t kid yourself that “it is just a paper loss”, when you need to wait for twenty years）

———-
investors are those who do not expect the price to go up or come down...they just expect that it will 'eventually' go up to a certain target level where they will sell

Posted by lizi > 2019-01-20 21:27 | Report Abuse

This method must be paired with wide diversification....else either opportunity cost kill u or one wrong judgement make you unable to recover...

"...but in the event things turn sour, the stock must be good enough to be held so that can ultimately recover. The holding period should not be more than 5 years (or you might as well crystalise the loss. Don’t kid yourself that “it is just a paper loss”, when you need to wait for twenty years）"

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 21:30 | Report Abuse

everyone is a trader if u are not there to participate in the growth of excellent companies of your choosing......like Philip and 3iii.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

Investing? How many got rich through investing? Very few. My experience is that most businessman made 99% of their net worth through owning and running businesses.

Posted by lizi > 2019-01-20 21:41 | Report Abuse

qqq, u like to be extreme....self contradict....keep changing....last time who say flexible is life, rigid is death ah?

qqq3 everyone is a trader if u are not there to participate in the growth of excellent companies of your choosing......like Philip and 3iii.
20/01/2019 21:30

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 21:47 | Report Abuse

everyone is a trader if u are not there to participate in the growth of excellent companies of your choosing......like Philip and 3iii.


that is terminology, definition...why u need flexibility for terminology?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 21:48 | Report Abuse

I didn't say all traders sure die....I didn't die....but I recognise its not for everyone.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-01-20 22:01 | Report Abuse

Thank you so much for your sharing, much appreciated.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 22:03 | Report Abuse

As for you, please keep on the good work reigning in that young man

We appreciate your contribution very much

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 22:13 | Report Abuse

conclusion: the famous quarter predictor was a great man

only those with a misconception on investing likes to portray these predictors in the wrong limelight....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 22:20 | Report Abuse

Any good stocks to buy probability ? I got some spare cash

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 22:22 | Report Abuse

i am waiting for young energetic cute Jon to recommend soon...

i am a lazy old man

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 20, 2019 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Any good stocks to buy probability ? I got some spare cash

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 22:29 | Report Abuse

Ghosh...what happened to Charlest? he has been quiet for very long...

Hope you are in good health with your sixth sense charles.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 22:32 | Report Abuse

by Icon8888 > Jan 20, 2019 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Any good stocks to buy probability ? I got some spare cash
=========

I think u got 20 counters already....am I right?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 22:39 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,13642.msg1562749.html#msg1562749

This was an old post comparing Guan Chong (gruesome company) with Dutch Lady (great company).

Was buying Dutch Lady in March 2012, investing or speculating?

Dutch Lady is a business that is easy to understand. It has grown its revenues, earnings, cash from operations, and free cash flows for many years. It has little or no debt. Its capex is a small fraction of its CFO. On 5/3/2012, it was priced at 29.50 per share. Was it overvalued, fairly valued or undervalued?

Look at its FCF/Market capitalisation or FCF yield. It was 8.00%.

FCF is the owners' money that the company can distribute as dividends, use to pay down its debts, buy back its own shares or retain to grow its business organically or through acquisition. A FCF yield of > 6% is a cash cow (by my definition).

Given the risk free interest rate was around 4%, Dutch Lady in March 2012 giving a FCF yield of 8% provided a huge margin of safety. It was undervalued. Given its FCF can be expected to grow over the years, this stock was very undervalued in March 2012.




Let me then share with you Guan Chong, later.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 22:41 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,13642.msg1562749.html#msg1562749


>>>Quote from: bb on April 14, 2011, 03:09:49 PM

GC was an old thread started in Dec 2010. At that time, its price was 1.96 per share. This price of 1.96 per share in Dec 2010 was the equivalent of 1.22 per share at current price (adjusting for bonus and free warrant in February).<<<<


Guan Chong is a gruesome business (in my book).


Revenue ('000)
1,362,713 (2013)
1,441,476
1,381,816
1,160,058 (2010)
642,650
694,334 (2008)


PBT ('000)
7,871 (2013)
153,236
150,079
111,449 (2010)
20,426
9,531 (2008)


EPS (sen)
0.71 (2013)
24.75
26.22
21.07 (2010)
2.95
1.41 (2008)


Div ('000)
14,321 (2013)
59,539
44,519
23,713 (2010)
6,601
2,398 (2008)


DY %
2.19 (2013)
7.62
10.22
8.82 (2010)
9.17
2.86 (2008)



Price
1.3700 (2013)
1.6400
1.3700
1.1200 (2010)
0.3000
0.3500 (2008)

P/E
191.51 (2013)
6.57
3.46
2.66 (2010)
5.08
12.39 (2008)



The revenue, PBT and EPS of GC improved significantly from 2008 to 2010. It also paid increasing dividends (every quarter) in 2010.

Look at its PE. In 2010, it was the lowest PE 2.66 and its DY was 8.82%.

So, in 2010, this company (gruesome though is its business) was very undervalued. Why? Its business had turned better but its stock was neglected by the investing community.

Buying this stock in 2010 was an investment operation, where the downside risk was low and the upside gain high. There was margin of safety.





Soon, its good performance was noticed by the investing community. Its PE started to expand, from 2.66 in 2010 to 6.57 in 2012. Its EPS climbed from 21.07 in 2010 to 26.22 in 2011.

>>>Quote from: bb on April 14, 2011, 08:32:41 PM
I have cashed out 40% of this stock due to uncertainty over the cocoa price since the Ivory Coast problem is now clearly settled and the country will be exporting its cocoa again.>>>>

Its EPS then declined to 24.75 in 2012

>>>>>Quote from: iiinvestsmart on February 28, 2013, 04:23:32 PM
Sold all my shares in this counter today. :handshake: :cash:
http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,13642.msg1562749.html#msg1562749..
<<<<<<


...... and its EPS fell off the cliff to 0.71 in 2013.


Were the buying of GC in Dec 2010, the selling of GC in April 2011 and in February 2013, investing or speculating?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-20 22:49 | Report Abuse

speculating means (in my opinion):

checking out other people's opinion (public at large) ..based on the information you have & shared...verifiable or not...and with all odds in consideration on its validity....

how people behave with the shared information is not within your control...and there is no natural law that states that the public at large are always over - optimistic or over -pessimistic than how they should be with the given information..

so why the prejudice on 'speculating'?

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-01-20 22:52 | Report Abuse

He cannot lar, he flip roti canai better...a while say he won't share out his 5k analysis on RCE then after that also post....know how to condemn people's analysis saying people collected only post their article, but while he is comdemning other people he is also owning Rce yet posting his 5k RCE analysis....what kind of people is this?

I think it is better for him to be a politician than become an investor because politician also always flip roti canai...period.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 22:55 | Report Abuse

MONDAY, 2 APRIL 2012
Guan Chong versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/04/guan-chong-versus-dutch-lady.html


(The previous link was incorrect)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 22:57 | Report Abuse

Thumb up

I like the bashing. It will make him better

Ah mah kau jai




Posted by Connie555 > Jan 20, 2019 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

He cannot lar, he flip roti canai better...a while say he won't share out his 5k analysis on RCE then after that also post....know how to condemn people's analysis saying people collected only post their article, but while he is comdemning other people he is also owning Rce yet posting his 5k RCE analysis....what kind of people is this?

I think it is better for him to be a politician than become an investor because politician also always flip roti canai...period.