Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 22:58 | Report Abuse

3iii stop polluting my thread with your Buffett thingy

X P

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 22:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 22:58 | Report Abuse

Guan Chong (gruesome company) with Dutch Lady (great company).

further confirming what I say about small and mid caps...U cannot participate in their growth one, u cannot be a long term, u cannot invest in it continuously, u can only flip it, trade it, speculate on it.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 23:01 | Report Abuse

Buying DLady at that time was done after careful analysis. It was found that DLady was throwing up a lot of cash. Its FCF yield was 8%. At that price then, DLady was undervalued, as the risk free interest rate was around 4%. Moreover, DLady has durable competitive advantage and we could expect its FCF to grow over time.


According to Ben Graham, there was safety of capital and promise of a satisfactory return. Thus, buying DLady in March 2012 would have fulfilled Graham's definition of investment.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-20 23:02 | Report Abuse

by Icon8888 > Jan 20, 2019 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Any good stocks to buy probability ? I got some spare cash
=========

I think u got 20 counters already....am I right?

I am not going to say u are right or wrong...

just curious, just testing my intuition.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 23:11 | Report Abuse

Buying Guan Chong in Dec 2010, it was trading at the lowest historical PE 2.66 and its DY was 8.82%.

Was buying GC in Dec 2010, investing or speculating?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 23:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-20 23:20 | Report Abuse

Just kidding lah

My pleasure you drop by

I also always went over to your thread (most of the time to abuse you )

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-21 08:45 | Report Abuse

3iii is one of the respectable i3 members on the platform. I remember those days where almost everybody went crazy over Hengyuan asset value. 3iii and Ricky were the two whom kept their sanity. To this day, I still look upon 3iii especially when he successfully countered stockraider , probability & co bullishness. To keep a cool mind under a rising market is not easy. It is even more impressive when you could counter them with facts.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-21 08:48 | Report Abuse

To study a typical boom-bust cycle on i3, please go to Hengyuan forum and read all posts from 2017-2018. The amount of brain power put into the analysis of Hengyuan is unmatched. We had many smart guys trying to predict Hengyuan quarterly profits which were futile in the end. We also had some value guys giving Hengyuan a RM 50 target price which is theoretically sensible due to the replacement cost. But, cyclical is a cyclical. It is a huge lesson and many long time i3 members chose to brush it off like nothing happened as if the pain and shame was too hard to bear.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 09:39 | Report Abuse

Flinstones went around the forum passing judgement on others

but never contribute investment ideas

in other word, a lot of empty talks

that is my impression

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 09:40 | Report Abuse

very similar to ks55

Posted by probability > 2019-01-21 09:46 | Report Abuse

Flintstones,

(1) remember the take away from this article of Icon:

Investing can be very very short term.

(2) and note also the Speculating definition presented by 3iii:

The difference between investment and speculation, when the two are thus opposed, is understood in a general way by nearly everyone; but it can be difficult to formulate it precisely.

In fact something can be said for the cynic's definition that an investment is a successful speculation and a speculation is an unsuccessful investment.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-21 09:53 | Report Abuse

in Hengyuan forum, 3iii did not contribute a thing....

its OTB, Icon, Koon, Raider, Davidtslim, and me who had contributed.

in fact i am the only one who told when to buy and when to exit. anyone who had sold a portion of their stakes between these period of buy and sell would have made enormous profit...

please keep that in record. do not let things cloud your judgement

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-21 09:57 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, I am not a person who feeds on attention like you. I am very happy with myself. To me, i3 is an outlet to have fun. It would be madness to take things too seriously over here.

I am never a good investor. Just like you who only had one lucky winner in Airasia after contributing multiple articles. I can write beautiful articles too but I chose to spend more time with family.

Not to mention about your latest very successful investment in an IPP. I wouldnt like to touch on it as I might ruffle some feathers here.

Is this investment going to come good? Good luck and all the best.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-21 10:01 | Report Abuse

Probability, that is the reason why I mentioned a lot of brain power was expended analyzing Hengyuan. I recognized the contribution. I also recognized the irrational exuberance when Hengyuan was around RM 16.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-21 10:02 | Report Abuse

u are not good at judging people too..
more like a slightly sour grape..

Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 09:57 AM | Report Abuse

I am never a good investor.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 10:04 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:45 AM | Report Abuse

3iii is one of the respectable i3 members on the platform. I remember those days where almost everybody went crazy over Hengyuan asset value. 3iii and Ricky were the two whom kept their sanity. To this day, I still look upon 3iii especially when he successfully countered stockraider , probability & co bullishness. To keep a cool mind under a rising market is not easy. It is even more impressive when you could counter them with facts.


Flintstones
1632 posts
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:48 AM | Report Abuse

To study a typical boom-bust cycle on i3, please go to Hengyuan forum and read all posts from 2017-2018. The amount of brain power put into the analysis of Hengyuan is unmatched. We had many smart guys trying to predict Hengyuan quarterly profits which were futile in the end. We also had some value guys giving Hengyuan a RM 50 target price which is theoretically sensible due to the replacement cost. But, cyclical is a cyclical. It is a huge lesson and many long time i3 members chose to brush it off like nothing happened as if the pain and shame was too hard to bear.
>>>


Thanks.

This is an open forum.

The thing about investing is in every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller, each looking at the share differently and from their own perspective.

Well, the saying goes ... you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Until then, it was one hell of a party. You can still feel the pulsations in some of the posts, for example, that of probability. By his own admission, he is no body. ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 10:09 | Report Abuse

3iii, don't be so cocky and bully my bro probability, wait for my explanation of you

give me 15 minutes to half an hour to formulate my response

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 10:11 | Report Abuse

Those who invested into Hengyuan when promoters and commentators were upbeat ended up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance.

You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right BECAUSE your data and reasoning are right.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 10:21 | Report Abuse

in that case, you are really like ks55, an outsider who does not dare to get involved

I have a different opinion from you when come to stocks. My past experience tells me that stock market offers amazing and abundant opportunities to create wealth. But the trick is how to get it to work. That is what I am doing all this while. To try to understand what others are doing. To figure out what has been preached is right, what is wrong. What are the areas that can be improved, etc.

Of course, you are different. By your own confession, you have no luck in the market. That is probably the reason behind the "personality clash" between me and you. I have a positive view on the market, while you and ks55 are cynical about it. We are like chicken and duck.

As for 3iii, I have ample respect for him. But there is apparent flaw in the way he look at investment. I am examining him carefully, before arriving at a final judgement.

That is different from you, who comes in and quote the Hengyuan case and give 3iii the stamp of approval.

That is why I say it is not good to be judgemental. You need to examine the nuances to find out more.

=================


Flintstones Icon8888, I am not a person who feeds on attention like you. I am very happy with myself. To me, i3 is an outlet to have fun. It would be madness to take things too seriously over here.

I am never a good investor. Just like you who only had one lucky winner in Airasia after contributing multiple articles. I can write beautiful articles too but I chose to spend more time with family.

Not to mention about your latest very successful investment in an IPP. I wouldnt like to touch on it as I might ruffle some feathers here.

Is this investment going to come good? Good luck and all the best.
21/01/2019 09:57

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 10:34 | Report Abuse

what is happening between 3iii and me ?

First of all, this is nothing new. Since 2015, I have been closely examining almost all the prominent personalities in i3, to figure out their investment strategies, whether it makes sense, whether there is anything we can learn from them.

I have studied OTB.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/89029.jsp

I have studied Uncle Koon

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/89122.jsp

I have studied KC Chong

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/99028.jsp

I am now studying 3iii.

Instead of imposing judgment on 3iii like what Flinstones does (based on an isolated case Hengyuan), I choose to be more scientific by doing proper research. That is why recently I am circling 3iii like an eagle circling a prey. I want to know him better.

From preliminary interactions, I have already identified certain weaknesses (dogmatism is one of his biggest sin). But his investment philosophy also carries a lot of useful concepts. I am learning a lot from them.

In short, there is no quarrel between me and 3iii. I am just conducting a study of him. And the findings of my study will be made available to everybody in i3 through my articles.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 10:42 | Report Abuse

only 3 ways to make money out of stock market

1 greater fool theory
2 benefit from changing landscape
3 participate in the growth of excellent companies, as the Bursa is
originally intended.

1...u are already a fool when u key in your order but a greater fool comes along
2...this tests all your intellectual prowess, knowledge, experience
3..for genuine long term investors, they have their own tools.


But value investors is an over glorified tool. For one, I believe markets are pretty efficient in valuing stuffs. Millions of factors involved in valuations...some known, some unknown, some knowable, some unknowable.

That is why I say for genuine long term investors, better stick with the larger caps with enough track record, reputation, public information where informed judgement can be made....the rest..more of luck, and syndicates , sentiments etc etc.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 10:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-21 10:57 | Report Abuse

3ii...why your messages so long winded and very indirect and confusing...

i think you are a very confused chap
...............................

i will never try to study u like Icon...i would really run away...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 10:59 | Report Abuse

LOL

it is not easy to study him

evertime I read his thread, I got to go up and pee every 5 minutes, just to keep myself awake

up until now, I finished 1.5 pages only

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-21 11:15 | Report Abuse

this stock market dangerous...

just like the jungle...

better be the second to enter, the first usually get eaten alive...

lol

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-21 11:17 | Report Abuse

u hold too long, when jungle on fire u get burned...

best defense is cutloss

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 11:37 | Report Abuse

by rajachulan > Jan 21, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

One reason why Buffett hold long is to avoid capital gain tax... why has no FA ever mentioned about this?
=========

this is some of the differences between Bursa and Wall Street.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 11:42 | Report Abuse

thousand of accountants, hundred of analysts did they make money by value here value there or by participating in the growth of excellent companies?

opportunities for arbitraging is rarer than u think....how u do really really know your valuation is superior to what the market gives?


maybe , it is u who have missed out some thing....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 11:47 | Report Abuse

in any case value to a minority is not the same as value with control....

u find Insas or Puncak u like...but u can be screwed by the people behind it forever.....

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-21 11:49 | Report Abuse

they can hedge ma...got big funds

play both sides...just like dragon

can u?

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-21 11:51 | Report Abuse

thats why 90% retailers loses money...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 13:58 | Report Abuse

thousand of accountants, hundred of analysts, why do rookies think they can value stuffs better than the experts? better than the market?

everyone thinks he is genius, if only....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 13:59 | Report Abuse

3iii, I found my investment strategy already

All the kinks had been ironed out

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely

Because of that, I officially announce the demise and irrelevance of your investment strategy. It is too austere, inflexible and unsuitable for Malaysia stocks (99.99% do not have moat)

Warren Buffett will die in Malaysia. His stuffs don’t work here. You better follow mine.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:00 | Report Abuse

if you got cash and got balls, u also can make the market to your liking.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:01 | Report Abuse

I agree with Icon.....at least philosophically.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 14:03 | Report Abuse

qqq3, have you found your investment strategy ? You better find yours, otherwise you can’t go far.

I have found mine, I have found mine !!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 21, 2019 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely
==========

reinvestment risk remains a big problem...at least in my case.....

some trade too much
some too stubborn...

In my case, I trade too much....This last 2 weeks, I actually make more money if only I just sit still.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:08 | Report Abuse

(99.99% do not have moat)

then find the 0.01% that do by learning to say NO.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 14:08 | Report Abuse

Exactly !!! Reinvestment risk is the key word. I have found the way to substantially attenuate it. That is why it is a Eureka moment. The missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle has finally fallen in place for me.

That is why I joyfully and proudly announce the birth of my investment strategy !!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:09 | Report Abuse

so does this mean Icon has evolved from the Icon I found in 2016?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 14:14 | Report Abuse

Wrong !!! Obsession with moat spawns and breeds Monster and mutants belief as in QL case. Sell eggs sell chicken sell sandwiches is moat ? Deserves 50 times PER ? It is exactly the obsession of moat that give birth to such nonsenses !!!

Forget about moat !!! Or you will be blinded and wander around in lonely wilderness lost of direction

Give you a hint : be a contrarian . Learn to accomodate changing landscape. You have the basic already. Delve deeper

(I am so fond of my new found strategy I am guarding it jealously)


Posted by qqq3 > Jan 21, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

(99.99% do not have moat)

then find the 0.01% that do by le

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:16 | Report Abuse

In my case it is normal....at the beginning of every rally, looking back ....the original portfolio is far superior to the subsequent portfolios after meddling here and there....

The discipline is actually just trust myself....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 14:17 | Report Abuse

Icon has always been very good at doing one particular thing. Now icon has found the second missing parts. Only the two put together can generate sustainable return indefinitely

In 2016, icon is a good car, in 2019 he gets his petrol. So the car can finally move



qqq3
7389 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 21, 2019 02:09 PM | Report Abuse

so does this mean Icon has evolved from the Icon I found in 2016?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 14:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ayoyo > 2019-01-21 14:26 | Report Abuse

"if you don't know who you are, the stock market is a very expensive place to find out" - Jesse Livermore

After some long winded essays, what have we learnt so far?

On methodologies and techniques
Regardless of TA, FA or hearsay, every speculator is dealt with the same deck of cards - reports, statistics, data, techniques from masters, books, end of day data etc.. which means knowledge and information are freely and readily available? What makes a successful speculator then?

By using his IMAGINATION in providing a STRUCTURE to a CHAOTIC combination of knowledge and information, to arrive at a usable CONCLUSION

That is called your EDGE - and it is the reason why one can never emulate the masters verbatim because their techniques are what worked for them... So, to be a successful speculator (in fact, at anything), find your own EDGE (and I'm not referring to the newspaper)

On when to sell,
When the original reasons for owning the stock are no longer valid

On when to cut loss or take profit
It is how much of the current profit you are willing to forgo in order to ride any potential further uptrend which you believe it still holds

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:26 | Report Abuse

icon

the randomness of the stock market means time is also the best medicine to cure anyone with grand delusions.

Hope that is not your case....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-21 14:35 | Report Abuse

know your enemy
know yourself
a hundred battles fought
a hundred battles won

hope that is the case.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 14:41 | Report Abuse

Don't go all over the place. Focus on managing reinvestment risk

How can you reduce it ?

You figure out this part, you have the key to unlimited riches