Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 00:08 | Report Abuse

it carries no meaning...to emphasize on results..using past empirical data...to justify future investment thesis...

its not like we live 200 years to experiment it, verify and decide to discard or use it...

we need a theory of investment which presents the mechanism of predictability...something that sinks into our pure logic

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 00:19 | Report Abuse

by probability > Jan 25, 2019 12:08 AM | Report Abuse

it carries no meaning...to emphasize on results..using past empirical data...to justify future investment thesis...
==========

short term, there is no solution, no answer...

long term....over a life time...3iii and Philips have good stuffs, good habits....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 00:22 | Report Abuse

by probability > Jan 25, 2019 12:08 AM | Report Abuse

it carries no meaning...to emphasize on results..using past empirical data...to justify future investment thesis...
==========

short term, there is no solution, no answer...

long term....over a life time...3iii and Philips have good stuffs, good habits....

Icon888 also can make it with his new improved version.....petrol in the car.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 00:58 | Report Abuse

RAIDER SUSPECT, THIS MR LONG UNFORTUNATELY IS HIT BY BAD LUCK, THATS WHY HE IS NOT SUCCESSFUL USING MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...ALOT OF RAIDER CLOSE FRIENDS ARE USING THIS METHOD SUCCESSFULLY LOH....!!
The problem with Stockraider is he thinks I am a rookie and have never tried his investing methods. Guess where I was in the 90's? Watching and reading security analysis and intelligent investor just like him. Did you know security analysis changed the theories, examples and applications for every edition based on latest data? I know, I've read every edition to try to understand the differences of investing in the the thirties (first edition), the fifties (third edition) and the late eighties ( sixth edition). Now why did I do that?

THE OTHER THING RAIDER NOTICE IS MR LONG IS CONFUSE LOH...WHY DO U NEED TO READ EVERY EDITION LEH ?? JUST USE THE LATEST EDITION MAH..!!
AGAIN THIS MR LONG GOT DISTRACTED LOH, WHY MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT GOT TO DO WITH STOCK TRADING LEH ??
U JUST BUY UNDERVALUE WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY & WAIT FOR RERATING OVER PERIOD UPTO MAX 3 YRS LOH...!!
WHY DO U NEED TO READ TA AND CHARTS LEH ??
I THINK MR LONG AGAIN GOT CONFUSE HERE LOH...!
I was realizing when I tried technical analysis to trade stocks that I found a counter pattern. Each time I tried a new indicator that worked, after a few weeks and months suddenly the trade signals would change on me and I went from making money to losing money again.

AGAIN U NEED TO UNDERSTAND LOH...MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CAN APPLY TO PENNY STOCK AS WELL AS QUALITY STOCK MAH...!!
THE BEST & IDEAL U GET IS A PENNY STOCK BUT SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME A QUALITY STOCK BCOS OF GOOD PERFORMANCE LOH...!!
RAIDER ASK LAH...IST THING IF U R SELLING 80% IS IT NOT A CHALLENGE FOR U LEH ??
TAKE RAIDER SELLING INSAS PREVIOUSLY AT RM 1.10 THE NTA WAS RM 1.70, EFFECTIVELY AT 65& T0 THE INTRINSIC VALUE MAH...!!
U CANNOT BE TOO GREEDY & WANTING 80% OF NTA, BCOS THE BUYER NEED TO CARI MAKAN ALSO MAH...!!

RAIDER ALREADY MAKE 2 BAGGERS OVER 2 TO 3 YRS, IT IS OK TO GIVE HIM A DISCOUNT LOH..!!
WHEN UR STOCK DROP FROM 80% TO 50% & 20%...U NEED TO CHECK WHETHER U BOUGHT UR SHARE WRONGLY, LIKE IT MAY HAS TOO MUCH DEBTS AND ITS BUSINESS CANNOT SUSTAINED OR IT IS A FRAUDULENT BUSINESS LIKE XINGUAN....IN THIS CASE U SHOULD CUT WAY AHEAD LOH...!!
IF AFTER UR THROUGH ASSESSMENT U STILL FEEL MKT IS VERY WRONG THEN BUY MORE LOH...IS AN OPPORTUNITY MAH...LIKE THE CASE OF INSAS TODAY MAH..!

I CAN ASSURE U THE CURRENT INSAS DO NOT HAVE THE PROBLEM U HAVE MENTIONED, BCOS IT PASS ALL THE TEST BY RAIDERS WITH FLYING COLORS MAH..!!
Then I realized something. Each time I tried margin of safety value buying, it always seemed I was buying a penny stock. When I set my stock selling at 80% of intrinsic value, the market changed on me at 50%. When I started selling at 50%, things changed on me at 20% intrinsic.

IF SYNDICATE CAN GORENG, THAT MEANS IT IS NOT A MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK, U SHOULD TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SELL, WHEN THEY GORENG UPWARDS LOH..!!
I may have been too blind to realize it, but penny stocks are subject to syndicate behaviour. And obviously they too know exactly what is a cigar butt. They used it every day to make money off idiots like me.

RAIDER ASK U LOH...IF U R WILLING TO HOLD STOCKS FOR GROWTH FOR 10 YRS...I M SURE U CAN ALSO DO ALRIGHT WELL AS A MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTORS, BCOS THE TIME FRAME FOR RERATING IS EVEN SHORTER AT AROUND 3 YRS LOH..!!

U GET IT WRONG ON MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT, BCOS U USE THE WRONG ASSESSMENT TECH LOH....!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 01:01 | Report Abuse

raid..u are just a troll

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 01:18 | Report Abuse

For those that remember the Asian financial crisis of 97, I was there. Imagine multiple hengyuans being sold at low pe, high nta, big asset base. You were making good money buying basically anything and everything.

DID U CHECK THE DEBT OF AOKAM & RENONG LEH ??
IT IS GOING TOWARDS BANKRUPTCY MAH...!!
HOW CAN U CLAIM AOKAM IS A MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK, WHEN IT IS A HIGH RISK POPULAR GORENG STOCK, WITH VERY HIGH GORENG VOLUME EVERYDAY AND HIGH SHARE PRICE AND CORNERED BY SYNDICATE LOH..!!
And even until the end, aokam perdana had huge nta with 10,000 hectares of timber land. Renong with its plant assets far far more than its bankruptcy price. Etc etc.

U WRONGLY INTERPRETED THE CONCEPT OF MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...IF U CAN GET LOUSY STOCK LIKE AOKAM WRONG AS A MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK MAH...!!
My point being high margin of "safety" stocks only seem safe, until it's not.

HENGYUAN I ALREADY HIGHLIGHT THE "LESSON LEARN MAH, I HOPE U CAREFULLY READ IT IN ORDER TO GET PROPER INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE LOH..!!
BUT HENGYUAN RISING FROM RM 3 TO 19, THEN FALL BACK TO RM 5.00, ACTUALLY ALOT OF PEOPLE ALREADY MAKE MONIES COMPARE TO LOSE MAH..!! RAIDER INITIATE SELL CALL AT RM 13.00 MAH...!!

Did you think hengyuan at 18 had high margin of safety? PLS REFER ABOVE.

XINGUAN IS A FRAUDULENT CASE, RAIDER WAS NOT CAUGHT AT ALL BY XINGUAN, BCOS RAIDER RADAR ALREADY FLASH NO...NO...NO...!!
SSLEE GOT CAUGHT BCOS HE WAS IMPRESSED BY KYY, HENCE FOLLOW HIM LOH..!!
Did you think xingquan with oodles of cash has high margin of safety?
Think about it. If you really wanted to, you could turn numbers around to mean anything you want.

NO U DON GO FOR COMPANY DOING BADLY...U BUY STOCKS THAT IS BIG MISPRICE BY VALUATION LIKE THE CASE OF INSAS LOH...!!
INSAS IS ONE OF THE BEST MARGIN OF SAFETY EXAMPLE U CAN FIND NOW LOH..!!
If a company is doing badly and the shares tank, it could mean that it's undervalued. But it can also mean that the business prospects changed and it's going to go bankrupt soon, right?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 01:29 | Report Abuse

RAIDER IS HAPPY U FOUND GROWTH INVESTMENT AND U R COMPETENT WITH IT LOH...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 24, 2019 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

But to be perfectly honest, my personal investment life changed after I stopped looking for undervalued cigar butts and decided to look for undervalued premium growth companies.

I can literally say I made millions participating in the long term, compounded performance of good companies.

I will not say if my method is better or Stockraider method is wrong, because that would be silly. To be honest we are both doing the same thing, looking for the margin of safety in a stock.

The difference is where we do the looking.

RAIDER DO NOT WANT TO BOAST LOH...BUT BASED ON 3iii PERFORMANCE OVER 10 YRS...AND ON YR BY YR COMPARISON...RAIDER BEAT HIM MOST OF THE TIME EVERY YEAR EXCEPT 2018 LOH...!!
IF U ASK ME...WHETHER I HAVE MONIES OR NOT..?? I CAN SAY I M VERY COMFORTABLE WITH FINANCE LOH...!!

AS USUAL IF UR CHALLENGE OF GIVING RM 1 MILLION TO CHARITY IS SINCERE, RAIDER ADVICE U PUT UR MONIES IN DEPOSITS WITH LAWYER IN ESCROW ACCOUNT, AND RAIDER WILL COME OVER TO PROVE, IT CAN BE DONE LOH..!!.
If Stockraider can look sslee,3iii and me in the eye and say he made millions by investing in his cigar butt way, I will immediately cut a 1 million dollar cheque to a charity of his choice.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 01:52 | Report Abuse

raid trolling again....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-25 06:57 | Report Abuse

Long number,

As always, your data is wrong. But given your age, I'll forgive you for that. Since I'm in a giving mood, I won't charge you for the advice I'm about to give you.

From the bottom of a crisis to normal or peak levels. The companies that gain the most, whether bonds or equities. Is not the highest quality ones, but the most rubbish quality ones.

Which makes sense, as people can't help but remember ONLY it's rubbish qualities at the throes of the crisis, and in the subsequent boom, place too low of an emphasis of those same rubbish qualities.

Like I said, don't go on margin. And you won't die, no matter how foolish your subsequent actions in investing prove to be.

I know, it does not feel good to have someone you consider to be a young ciku to give you advice. In fact, you probably feel a little insulted that the entire i3 did not kneel and thank you, the moment you opened your mouth on the glories of ql and its longkang of a moat.

Still, you should listen. I'm sure you will change your mind.

Because I'm right, and you're smart enough to know it.

I mean your philosophy went from "wonderful company at any price" to "wonderful company at the right price" in the last one month. Due to no small our effort, on mine, Ricky and others here.

I'd send you a bill, but my skin is not so thick yet. Nor do I have your address.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 07:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 07:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon choivo, any advice you give is worthless if not backed with results. As so far your investing period is short, your margin loan returns are unimpressive, and your total portfolio gains are still negative, I would refrain from charging anyone any money. Once your biggest investment call (rcecap) start returning multi baggers in portfolio gains in 3-5 years, then you may start charging.

Fyi, my biggest Investment right now in 2018-2019 at 32% is in NASDAQ:STNE. I did not ask people to invest in pe50 companies or value at all costs. I ask people to invest in quality companies with ql an example.

You seem to not understand the difference. Right now STNE is a pe 22 company. If in 5 years it becomes a pe50 company, please don't tell me I am buying at all costs.

I'm saving this conversation so I can bring it up yearly and start to do 1 year performance comparisons between a rcecap and STNE.

I wouldn't pay you for your advice, but I'll let yearly stock performance do the talking.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-25 07:31 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Repost from other forum just to clarify my initial investment in Xingquan had nothing to do with Mr. Koon. I was just starting to venture out of my circle of competent/comfort zone from investing in Reit into stock and was so naïve that cash in bank is not cash at all when come to Red chip companies and I cannot believe until now that the external auditors are so complacent and ready to be crime in partner just to earn auditor fees. Where are their conscious? In the case of Xingquan the external auditor had clearly fail their duty of due diligence and their legal obligation to the investing public.

https://www.sc.com.my/post_archive/malaysian-institute-of-accountants-...
Highlight:
“It must be also noted that the accounting profession’s impact in producing and ensuring the quality of financial reporting goes beyond the realm of audit and compliance -it is the basis by which decision making, financial strategy, analysis and benchmarking is taken. Therefore, accountants hold critical gate keeping functions as reputational intermediaries, allowing market participants to identify risks, locate opportunities, reduce uncertainties and ultimately, allocate capital efficiently.
Accountants play a vital role in maintaining good corporate governance practices and aid investors in making informed investment decisions.”

Dear Mr. Philip,
I quote: “Just because pe is low and they have a lot of cash also does not mean it is a good business. I'm looking at you xingquan, xidelang etc.”
To save you from looking at my Xingquan below are what actually happen.
My investment experience: Newbie and most costly mistake, not knowing the existing of i3investor website till 31-8-2016 and committed my biggest investment mistake of become No. 13 (Thirty Largest Shareholders) of Xingquan Financial Report 2016.

08 Mar 2016 02:42PM 2Q/FY16 results - within expectations. Maintain Hold Call. Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd Results Report √ Hold

I was mislead by this Mercury Serurities Sdn Bhd Research report and in May 2016 when the share price drop to 20cent+ below the recent right issue price of 30cents I sold my Arreit and bought in big position thinking I had make a good investment decision. To my horror the Q4 financial report is so horribly/unbelievable and can only be explained as fraud. The rest is history where I attended the AGM, make many complaints on (Xingquan (Big holding), CSL and Maxwell (Very small holding)) to SC and Bursa, join meeting with them and handing all the evident of fraud/email corresponds to them. I even meet up with Mr. Koon Yew Yin to call for Xingquan EGM.

I am now waiting for SC to complete their investigation on Xingquan before I will discuss with substantial shareholder to take a class action on CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”) IPO promoter and external auditor for gross negligence and misrepresentation in misleading investing public and minority shareholders of Xingquan.

Thank you
P/S: Blessing in disguise, my bad experience in Xingquan had allow me to meet many very interesting people, found this i3investor website and read many investment blogs by many i3 Sifu especially Mr. KCChong blogs. I have move on from all those red chip companies and I am very confident that I can make back all the losses from my previous investment on red chip companies very soon.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 07:32 | Report Abuse

Choivo, your advice is patently wrong. From long experience and data, it is very clear after recession, yes penny stocks and small caps rise up quickly, buy they are also shown to deflate quickly as well. While quality companies go down, but they soon become very sought after for their earnings and dependability ( try explaining why after Malaysia recession and political uncertainty investors jumped into ql and NESTLE in 2017-2018 doubling share price).

I don't know if you have a financial times subscription or if you can read, but this is fact driven information. Here is probably a free look for you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f291702a-f244-11da-b78e-0000779e2340

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 07:39 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan going from a 4rm company to 18 in less than a year is not a goreng stock raider? Got margin of safety raider? How come your margin of safety goal post keep changing first say intrinsic value is 45, then now say more than 13 need to sell? You know nothing about investing in margin of safety.

On that thought didn't Jon choivo also do the same thing exactly? Buy low, sell high buy higher then watch as the entire stock collapse because of non existing fundamentals.

I remember a very smart guy named sir Isaac Newton who did the exact same trade with south sea capital.

Charge me for his advice indeed. With his investing acumen. I have fund managers from ta, Maybank, HL and pbb coming over giving me ideas all the time and asking me to give them money for their fund. Even they don't dare to charge upfront but based on performance.

Charge me indeed. Malu lah!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 07:41 | Report Abuse

But apologies Stockraider, sslee and Jonathan choi in advance, feeling a bit stressed here after there was a mixup in my flights arrangement from LaGuardia airport. Been stuck here for hours waiting plane resolution to no avail.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-25 07:57 | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo,
Repost from what is investment forum and hope you understand what I mean.
Dear all,
To be fair to Jon Choivo, I like this young man, well read, articulate and speak his mind. I was no way near him in term of reading nor knowledge when I am his age but he remind me of what I am during my early career as engineer, an idealist fighting with the capitalist the ideal of share wealth and always on the side of workers until one day the management told me if you are so concern about the welfare of the workers that teach them the knowledge they required to progress so that when opportunity arrives they are ready to grab the opportunity. From that day onward I hold class after office hour to teach my workers the chemistry and basic principle of chemical reaction, the physical theory in process separation, the E/I principle of motor and control system, the mechanical of moving parts and motion, internal design principle of vessel, reactor, evaporator, boiler and etc, how and what set parameters will affect the quality, the costing and cost effect of running an chemical plant and finally teaching them hard-work, discipline, honesty, respect, dignity, self-worth and self-confident and with knowledge and humble enough to learn from everyone their fate is in their hand now.

I am glad many of my operators and supervisors are now holding a higher position in many of oleo-chemical Industries even multi-national companies. This is the power of knowledge and I am honor when they meet me they call be “SIR” an honor that if I get the chance to meet Mr. KCChong I will call him “SIR”.

Be an idealist is not a bad start in your career but been an idealist after a long career where your idealist did not bring the desired result you intent nor benefit the society and yourself then the fault in on you. I had found a way to be idealist and at the same time brought benefit to people I care and my-self. It is up to young man to ponder and find his owe way how to put his idealist to good use that benefit self and all.

I would also like to thank all for sharing their knowledge in i3 because Knowledge if kept to yourself have no value only by sharing we create the value.

Thank you
P/S: In giving we receive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuTZUAIHKbo

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-25 08:01 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Philip,
No apology needed. We are here to share our different view/opinion to benefit the readers. No harm done and wishing you a happy journey.

Thank you

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 08:07 | Report Abuse

Dear SSLee,

After many many painful lessons I have finally learned not to listen to fund managers and research houses on their recommendations. Their goals and yours are never aligned, so they will trumpet their good calls and hide away their bad investment ideas. No skin in the game in it for them.

As for Jon choivo, as he is using his friends, family and parents skin ( he is to have any important skin of his own to risk) he has slightly higher personal and reputational risk and therefore can be listened to with half an ear.

Just be wary whenever you get prior charging you for information or charging you management fees for stocks you own.

Trust in your own knowledge and learning. If INSAS works out, then it works out. If it doesn't, then you can bring me out for some subang ss15 rojak and I'll be glad to tell you why.

But don't trust anyone, build your own knowledge.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 08:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 09:22 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital > Jan 25, 2019 06:57 AM | Report Abuse

Which makes sense, as people can't help but remember ONLY it's rubbish qualities at the throes of the crisis, and in the subsequent boom, place too low of an emphasis of those same rubbish qualities.
==============

young cigu choi...u are referring to investing ( not trading ) , don't go ask people to select rubbish shares......
A lot terrible advice in that short sentence. A lot of terrible assumptions....and an overlooked problem being the reinvestment risk....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 09:23 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/187899.jsp

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 09:29 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo

I like this young man. He exudes a lot of knowledge. He writes extremely well and sensible too.

On the other hand, his is not the humblest person I know. I shall accept him as he is today.

Allow me to comment on his short history of investing, perhaps later.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 10:09 | Report Abuse

everyone is an idealist and every one thinks he is a better driver than the average.......

but who has character, habits and practise wins.....

not who has more theoretical knowledge......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 10:13 | Report Abuse

every time the market rallies up sustainably over several months....everyone wins....problem is reinvestment risks ...and making more than losing ( subsequently).....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 10:15 | Report Abuse

I have just finished reading through 30% of kcchongz blogs. Very interesting reading. To be honest I am very glad to finally have the guts to start posting on i3 investor after being an invisible reader for the last 5 years.
All the comments and replies from everyone has led me to more investing knowledge and learning.

I had thought that I should get 5 years of stock portfolio performance from my 4 stocks before starting to comment on i3. Knowing what I do now and what happened, I probably should have started earlier.

I don't believe in mutual funds. The management fees, transfer fees and stock picking quality is going to eat up any compounding gains long term.
I believe in carefully choosing a week picked, well researched stock that has just gained is competitive edge over competitors, but is small enough that huge growth can be predicted. We don't have a vanguard index fund type in Malaysia with their 0.04% fees per annum.

With that in mind, I would like to recommend ( notice how I never recommended anyone to buy ql,pbb,yinson and topglove to anyone as those are stocks which I have bought and kept for many years now), really RECOMMEND to buy as a long term investment: NASDAQ: STNE.

One stock to rule them all.
It is 32% of my shareholdings, I bought 200k shares in January 4th 2019 @usd19.15 per share.

I believe the portfolio size is on par with the multitudes of stock that Jon choivo has, probably also similar to the trading portfolio of stockraider, and of hopefully comparable to KC investment portfolio and CalvinT stuck portfolio in terms of churn and volume.

I hope to be around in 5 years it 10 years time to compare the total return.

FYI. I have found the bursa market to be out of moat stocks. I'm just keep the moats I have. Make of that what you will.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 10:37 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,4580.msg71101.html#msg71101

>>>>>

Marquess
********
Posts: 16,416
View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Re: Let me do a small experiment on CIMB
« Reply #176 on: October 12, 2009, 05:03:48 PM »
Quote
Sell ! Sell ! Sell !

Beware of the coming greatest crash in March 2010 (Greatest in history-Bigger than the Great Depression)

Those who do not listen to Prophet Uyafr will be doomed !

>>>>


This post was dated October 2009.


Imagine you have a portfolio of stocks in October 2009.

This person warned you of the greatest crash in history coming and asked you to sell!

So much for his margin of safety story.

This is Mr. Market.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 10:41 | Report Abuse

at least 95% of the shares in Bursa no moat one....only good enough for trading.....now, with change of government even government owned monopolies also no moat.....

a good story and a good reputation is worth a lot of money....now, what I need to do is to figure out a way to substainably make money out of this.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 10:44 | Report Abuse

Re: Let me do a small experiment on CIMB
« Reply #176 on: October 12, 2009, 05:03:48 PM »
Quote
Sell ! Sell ! Sell !
===========

that is stock raider.....his true self....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 11:01 | Report Abuse

the beginners approach...its all about stories or its all about Company accounts.

the professional approach...its about people, business and numbers in that order.... good reputation and good story is worth a lot of money

that is on stock picking...

on how to handle market fluctuations and market risks....well....that is whole different story.....

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-25 11:04 | Report Abuse

"FYI. I have found the bursa market to be out of moat stocks. I'm just keep the moats I have. Make of that what you will."


I think moat is over rated. I don't get obsessed over it and neither should any of u too. Moat may protect you for an extended period of time, however, at some point be it competition, technological changes, socioeconomic changes will inevitably present challenges to the moat, more so at this digital age.

On other note, do read Homo Deus by Yuval Noah.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 11:09 | Report Abuse

the current business world is way more unpredictable than how it was 10 years ago...its becoming increasingly unpredictable

using empirical data of investment'guru's success in country which defines success (already having a moat)..may not be a good idea in bursa..

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 11:22 | Report Abuse

>>> Posted by probability > Jan 25, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

the current business world is way more unpredictable than how it was 10 years ago...its becoming increasingly unpredictable

using empirical data of investment'guru's success in country which defines success (already having a moat)..may not be a good idea in bursa..<<<


probability is in the "Buffett's strategy does not work in Bursa" camp.

:-)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 11:24 | Report Abuse

Is he a remisier too?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 11:26 | Report Abuse

This 3iii intelligence cannot be that low loh ??
In addition is 3iii really a man ah ??
If yes he is very petty loh....!!

The posting in 2009 is done to have some fun mah....with 3 objective in mind loh...!!

1. It is directed at uyafr as raider is a regular allies and sparing partner of uyafr loh...!!
We make alot of monies buying regular quality penny stocks like Gsb Rm 0.06, Insas Rm 0.20, Lcth Rm 0.12, pmcorp rm 0.08, oldtown rm 0.88 etc loh..!!
Uyafr would buy 1st n raider will follow using leech tech mah...of course uyafr pick was vetted by raider's friends like senior analyst, 008 investigators and tukang telek b4 raider jump in buy loh..!!
But problem is uyafr is a short term trader although he has a knacked in picking quality penny stock loh...!!
Uyafr always sell to fast and too cheap although making reasonable profit loh...!!
most of time raider follow uyafr buy call but not his sale call, In fact uyafr got annoyed with raider for that mah..!!
After uyafr sold he will initiate sell call, but most of the time the stock keep rising bcos the stock he sold with profit is still hugely very undervalue loh...!!
RAIDER Want TO HELP HIM TO IMPROVE & SHAKE HIM UP....THIS TIME AFTER A BUY CALL RAIDER TAKE THE BEAR SIDE LOH...!!
IT IS DONE THIS WAY TO HAVE SOME FUN MAH...!!

2. 2009 period is highly jittery period for alot of players to shake them up and to get them to have high confidence, raider purposely take the bear side so that they can argue with raider on the bull side, so that they can gain confidence in their stock selection loh..!!
Of course there is a risk weaker players will panic and sold too early...but raider think it is ok...bcos without a good independent foundation they will have problem in the long run anyhow loh...!!

3. At that time, in fact raider is really highly bullish loh...!!
In fact after fooling around with the bear call for about roughly 1 mth, Later Raider decide to come up the biggest thread investlah " Raider the biggest Bull in investlah" !!
If u go n read the thread carefully most of the time raider ask people to buy and the use of margin of safety ....not to be afraid of the bear mkt mah...!! This has been running for many yrs mah...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 25, 2019 10:37 AM | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,4580.msg71101.html#msg7..

Marquess
********
Posts: 16,416
View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Re: Let me do a small experiment on CIMB
« Reply #176 on: October 12, 2009, 05:03:48 PM »
Quote
Sell ! Sell ! Sell !

Beware of the coming greatest crash in March 2010 (Greatest in history-Bigger than the Great Depression)

Those who do not listen to Prophet Uyafr will be doomed !

This post was dated October 2009.

Imagine you have a portfolio of stocks in October 2009.

This person warned you of the greatest crash in history coming and asked you to sell!

So much for his margin of safety story.

This is Mr. Market.

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-01-25 11:29 | Report Abuse

Great! We got 2 sifus talking shit to each other. This show I definitely love to watch.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 11:35 | Report Abuse

Moat = competitive business advantage.
This can be very good business management (Warren buffet in a dying textile industry)
It can be the most efficient lowest cost producer (GEICO, topglov, Amazon)
It can be vertical integration ( 3M, QL, Nestlé, Unilever)
It can be first mover ( Apple, uber, alibaba)
It can be branding ( Nike, coca cola)
It can be corruption ( MYEg)
It can be stability ( public Bank)
It can be innovation ( Google)

The entire basis of growth investment is based on competitive advantage. If you have secret sauce and the other guy has ketchup, in the long run the guy with secret sauce will grow, simple as that. It is the one constant in business. You will never ever see a business that does not have a competitive advantage not do well, unlike some of the other indicators of business performance.

How can moat be overrated? Cash and assets is overrated, if unutilised. PE is overrated, because companies and businesses in different industries are afforded different pe. Margin of safety is overrated, because Amazon and Google showed you how.

I like how probability thinks, because I totally agree. That's why I'm expanding my ideas of competitive advantage.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 11:40 | Report Abuse

Raider already explain many times on the issue of hengyuan and margin of safety mah...!! If Mr Long has read carefully he will get all the answer below loh...!!

There is no change of gold post mah...!!


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 25, 2019 07:39 AM | Report Abuse

Hengyuan going from a 4rm company to 18 in less than a year is not a goreng stock raider? Got margin of safety raider? How come your margin of safety goal post keep changing first say intrinsic value is 45, then now say more than 13 need to sell? You know nothing about investing in margin of safety.


Raiders lesson to be learned loh;
Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!

Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 11:43 | Report Abuse

no 3ii...i believe using certain fixed set of criterias like you do.....using quantitative figures derived from financial reports....is probably for slightly higher than average return in Bursa...or even lesser..

It may take 10 years to double your capital

its probably suited for those who have large capital...who want to have peace of mind.....they diversify a lot so that not to worry on significant capital loss..(purely psychological reasons)

......................................

I dont want to link above methodology with Buffet...as i think these investment gurus also considers the qualitative part extensively....or they have good acumen on these aspects..

I am pretty sure you are no where to Buffet's return despite claiming you practice what he does...

......................................

i am looking for extraordinary returns and i think the qualitative parts matters a lot for such an objective...and one have to constantly keep them self updated on whats happening with their stocks business...

they need to understand its business very well..its strategic advantage and weaknesses...and do calculated bets to achieve great bargains...

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 11:48 | Report Abuse

Ben Graham says moat investment, if u overpay u create unnecessary risk on overvalue investment loh...!!

Who does not know Nestle business good ??

Who does know Public Bank is great ??

But buying this type of co, u need to pay a fair price but if u pay overvalue price u get into trouble also mah ??

Raider says no harm trying to buy this type of business and hold for 10 yrs loh...!!

Moat = competitive business advantage.
This can be very good business management (Warren buffet in a dying textile industry)
It can be the most efficient lowest cost producer (GEICO, topglov, Amazon)
It can be vertical integration ( 3M, QL, Nestlé, Unilever)
It can be first mover ( Apple, uber, alibaba)
It can be branding ( Nike, coca cola)
It can be corruption ( MYEg)
It can be stability ( public Bank)
It can be innovation ( Google)

The entire basis of growth investment is based on competitive advantage. If you have secret sauce and the other guy has ketchup, in the long run the guy with secret sauce will grow, simple as that. It is the one constant in business. You will never ever see a business that does not have a competitive advantage not do well, unlike some of the other indicators of business performance.

How can moat be overrated? Cash and assets is overrated, if unutilised. PE is overrated, because companies and businesses in different industries are afforded different pe. Margin of safety is overrated, because Amazon and Google showed you how.

I like how probability thinks, because I totally agree. That's why I'm expanding my ideas of competitive advantage.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 12:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-25 12:00 | Report Abuse

Those who never buy good stock before always think it is overvalued. When pe was 27 you say nestle overvalued, when pe 53 you again say overvalued.

But ask you again, the double story house you buy last time in Damansara when it was 300k now worth 2.7m do you say it is overvalued?

Do you suddenly go and sell it? Of course not, because where to find double story in Damansara for 300k anymore??

Funny how outlooks for pieces of paper and property assets are suddenly so different when comparing real world.

You want to go auction and wait for cheap house to sell by bank valuer be my guest. After you buy then you realize why it is at auction, and what a crap deal you got. The only houses left you can find for 300k is due for demolition.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-25 12:07 | Report Abuse

In investment u have brakes and the reverse gear too mah...!!

There are time u need to change course very fast mah....!!

Mr Long, still talking like penny stock is lousy stock but not all mah....there is alot of gems due to mispricing....n not due to poor fundamental mah....!!

Value investors need to dig it up mah...!!
SSlee has picked a fine example INSAS a classic margin of safety jewel pick loh.....!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 25, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

Those who never buy good stock before always think it is overvalued. When pe was 27 you say nestle overvalued, when pe 53 you again say overvalued.

But ask you again, the double story house you buy last time in Damansara when it was 300k now worth 2.7m do you say it is overvalued?

Do you suddenly go and sell it? Of course not, because where to find double story in Damansara for 300k anymore??

Funny how outlooks for pieces of paper and property assets are suddenly so different when comparing real world.

You want to go auction and wait for cheap house to sell by bank valuer be my guest. After you buy then you realize why it is at auction, and what a crap deal you got. The only houses left you can find for 300k is due for demolition.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 12:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 12:12 | Report Abuse

dont twist la 3ii...your investment never upsets me...infact i would love to know more about your arguments on how its returns are going to be spectacular...key word 'how'.

your attitude to discredit others is whats annoying...more like due to lack of skills on qualitative aspects...you try to suppress the share price beyond a price you can justify with your fixed ratios...

this is where the conflicting interest arise with others...


Posted by 3iii > Jan 25, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

My investing seems to upset some people, like probability. Why? Are you a remisier, as someone suggested?

You need not have to. It is such a big market out there. Yours and my participation are very small. Each is in a niche of his own.

Posted already that looking at past fundamentals do not ensure successful investing. Having the ability to assess the quality of the business and its valuation is important and paramount for successful investing. Understanding the business, accounting and financial data is only the start of valuation process and not the end.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2019-01-25 12:14 | Report Abuse

raid......so u are rubbish collector, hoping to find a gem in the pile of rubbish............good, u have made your point. Can u stop now....?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 12:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 12:16 | Report Abuse

this kinda sharing is always encouraged ma...

Posted by 3iii > Jan 25, 2019 12:10 PM | Report Abuse

I recently shared why I liked certain stocks in the past. You should have realised that the reasons were a lot to do with quality and pricing, and little to do with a lot of mathematics.

For example:

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 12:18 | Report Abuse

>>> Posted by probability > Jan 25, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

this kinda sharing is always encouraged ma...
<<<


I am generous in my sharing.

You were blind.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 12:18 | Report Abuse

Do you think I am stupid in my investing?


:-)

Posted by probability > 2019-01-25 12:20 | Report Abuse

aiyo...me no upsst with you at all...i already explain what annoys me ma..i had some glimpse of your character in hengyuan forum with raider in 2017...its based on these observation

again...you want to nose into areas like a police....whats so important about me being a remisier in this discussion?