Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-16 15:38 | Report Abuse

Anyone that has the qualitative skills to invest long term in QL I like. Good article.

Posted by Jason Gilbert Ho > 2019-04-16 15:39 | Report Abuse

Haha TQVM, but you might be sad to know that I am cutting down on my QL position slowly and investing in Gkent and JAKS instead. Lulz.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-17 07:28 | Report Abuse

Ugh. Happy investing my young friend. Like you said, there are many ways of investing, many roads to Rome.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-04-17 08:30 | Report Abuse

Dear Jason,
Welcome to I3 to share your investment thought process. Being a human being you cannot escape the cognitive biases when you have vested interest.
I quote your writing “Understanding People and Qualitative Analysis” Have you done that for JAKS? If you have, mind to share with us rather than saying “With this qualitative thought process, if the business fundamentals have not changed, then the share price is definitely overblown”

Thank you

Posted by Jason Gilbert Ho > 2019-04-17 11:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Lee, I would love to.

Qualitatively, I look on it from a Chinaman company business perspective. 70% is owned by CPECC, china power engineering Consulting which has a workforce of 9000, which has successfully completed 49000 MW of power plant projects, and most importantly is a state owned subsidiary of China Gov. As the construction of the power plant is still ongoing with pictures and testing commissioning done for various stages as per progress schedule from CPECC website report. (unit 1 to be completed in end 2019) and unit 2 to follow in 2020. This would be what I term as business fundamentals unchanged. On JAKS end, there are no major issues on the property development end which will cause major damage to the company, as its assets are in valuable locations and will prove easy to offload, if needed. The interest commitments are not too onerous

The risk factor here (which caused the share price to drop) was mainly on JAKS management end. The warrants issue, rights issue, the CEO unwillingness to add Mr Koon and his apointee on the board of directors is definitely a cause of concern. This can be construed both ways:

1)either Mr Ang is not a majority shareholder of his own company and is uncomfortable with another party taking power in the boardroom and pushing short term decisions for the company,
2)or Mr Ang is planning to do certain activities that will harm shareholder value (which Mr Koon will be unable to stop or reject and bring to vote).

It can lean both ways.

In either case, as I have entered my position below RM0.6, I feel confident within the short term of 1-3 years I should be able to enjoy 20% average return on the stock, which for me is more than good enough, as I have my eye on a few more companies with longer term potential.

Posted by Jason Gilbert Ho > 2019-04-17 11:08 | Report Abuse

In either case as time draws near, I believe that JAKS will be able to perform within the RM1.50 per share level (especially when unit 2 goes online) due to either technical momentum, fundamental profits clarity from the EPCC works awarded by JHDP to golden keen holdings limited in vietnam, and some recovery of the construction and property market in malaysia.

Within that range I would be more comfortable investing in JAKS for the medium term.

Posted by AmateurApprentice > 2019-04-17 16:31 | Report Abuse

Hi Jason,
I recommend this book "Mastering The Market Cycle : Getting the odds on your side" by Howard Marks.

Your investing is quite similar, he's quite a master for distress instruments.

In a nutshell, the industry is shit, so is the company, but when the pendulum swing to the extreme-end of undervaluation, it is a good buy.

Downside risk is low and any bad news will not have any big impact on the company.

Missed JAKS in the 0.40/0.50-ish. Still working on ignoring my emotions.

Kudos to you.

Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-19 07:10 | Report Abuse

As long as you understand that JAKS is a mix term investment where you goal is rm1.5 tp sell then I am sure you will make money. It is a far cry from some of the other investors on the i3 Jaks voucher where they suddenly think Jaks will be a tp7 and rm9 company.

Have a happy good Friday!