In investment it is always better look forward on armada, if u keep looking back at the past u will be obviously missing great investing opportunity on armada loh...!!
1. Armada already undergo vast impairment & writedown to conservatively clean up their books. It has brought down its high borrowing from Rm 16 billion to rm 10.4 billion and the trend u can see is obvious qtr reduction in borrowing loh....!!
2. Most importantly the latest qtr profit and revenue easily exceed yinson a rm 7 billion mkt cap company by about double, a great sign of sharp improvement trend loh...!!
3. As for sustainability armada has rm 20 billion order books another very positive sign for the company loh...!!
4.Bottom line, just focus on Armada's performance over the last two quarters you will see that it's on the upwards trends. Orderbook remains steady at RM20.2b (FPO: RM19.1bn, OMS: RM1.1bn) another RM10.3bn worth of potential extension. This will sustain the group’s revenue for the next few years.
For Potential upside, please see mikekim comments earlier... It will get even better in 2H2019 with 4 key upsides:
1) Claire US$285m compensation 2) Kraken ~US$280m partial/full write back 3) Kraken debt restructure to LT 4) Net profit growth
Hence. we can expect better result in next quarter.
5.Moving forward, Global FPSO Market is expected to grow USD+ 30 Billion by 2025.
Top Key Players: BP, Petronas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Petrobras, Bumi Armada Berhad, SBM Offshore, BW Offshore, MODEC, Bluewater Energy Services B.V., Aker Solutions ASA, Yinson Holdings Berhad, Teekay Corporation, among others.
Armada Value Proposition 1. A Top 5 FPSO operator in the world by fleet size. Operating presence in Asia, Africa and Europe. T&I and OSV (lossmaking) are complementary businesses. 2. Unlike OSV and T&I operations, FPSO’s contracts are more bankable, providing steady visibility (long-term charters, termination protection) with reasonable project IRRs. 3. FPSOs tender pipeline is strong. Winning a job is a catalyst.
I see your Armada has confounded 3iii who cannot understand turnaround
Venfx & FamousAmos
Both of you should meet up as friends Our lives here are so short compared to eternity
David,
Yes, of course it is a noble intention to buy low. And also tell all to buy while low. Buy good stocks that have potential to go up so that all will benefit together like buying carimin at 39 sen, naim at 50 sen at scomies at 7.5 sen
Samyew,
I see 2 things in destini. It has jobs but need liquidity so it is giving out Rights Issue to raise capital. Some are selling. But the Boss is buying. Now if you have deep pocket can average down slowly buy spaced out buying
See, when I called for a buy on carimin on 26th Jan 2018 at 39 sen it even dropped to a low of 21.5 sen. But longer term now Carimin has rebounded above Rm1.00
For destini must wait for ecrl roll out, aerospace fresh jobs & also petronas to give out OGSE support second liners. All these take time. I think better just hold destini first in back burner and concentrate on THE DIGITAL ECONOMY stocks for now
“A cyclical is a company whose sales and profits rise and fall in regular if not completely predictable fashion.” In contrast to fast growers, cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries. Cyclical stocks do well as economies come out of recession and begin to expand.You can, however, also lose half your investment if you buy in the wrong part of the cycle. Lynch calls them the “most misunderstood” type of stocks. As large and well-known companies, they are often confused with stalwarts. People who work in cyclical industries have an edge over other investors.
READ AGAIN
cyclical industries expand and contract, almost continually. Some examples include the auto, airline and steel industries
CYCLICALS EXPAND AND CONTRACT (ALMOST CONTINUALLY) THAT MEANS THAT PRICES GO UP AND ALSO GO DOWN AGAIN VERY FAST
Examples of Cyclicals
1) Mooncake sales spiked up in the Chinese Calendar of August 15th Once every year
2) Durian sales in season Twice every year. There is no business in between as no durian to sell (SO DURIAN SALE CAN BE CONSIDERED CYCLICAL)
3) Long Steel like Masteel, SSteel, Annjoo & Lionind crashed when PH Govt called off High speed rail, Ecrl, Mrt 3. Pan Borneo and other infrar jobs on winning
So if Ecrl, Hsr & Other infrar jobs are restarted Long Steel will rebound
4) In Year 2014 Crude OIl Prices crashed to a low of USD27.00 & below production cost of Petronas. So no O&G jobs were given. All O&G Stocks suffered together. Those that borrowed too much sunk under water and gone bankrupt like Ezra & Swibor in Singapore. In Malaysia O&G stocks like daya, perisai, thheavy, sumatech, alam maritin, barakah & others crashed below 10 sen
In year 2018 Petronas gave jobs to Carimin (BRENT REBOUNDED TO USD71.00) & other OGSE like Dayang/Naim, Penergy & Deleum & these later gone into Bull run time
SO THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BRENT CRUDE PRICE & CAPEX FROM PETRONAS
LOW CRUDE PRICE (USD27) BELOW PETRONAS PRODUCTION COST = PETRONAS CUT CAPEX = OG SUFFERS ALL THROUGH YEARS OF 2014 TO EARLY 2019 (5 YEARS OF DEARTH FOR OGSE)
HIGH CRUDE PRICE OVER USD71 PETRONAS MAKING GOOD MONIES = LOTS OF FRESH JOBS = OGSE (1ST TIER STOCKS) MOVE UP FIRST (AND GO INTO BULL RUN TIME)
The problem is calvin recommended many stocks. Some did well and he highlighted this frequently. Those not doing well were no longer highlighted. He is not objective or rational. Philip has collected all his recommendations of 2019. The outcome was a far cry from calvin's claim. Be careful. For every 3 recommendations by calvin: 1 did well, 2 lost money.
This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.” Lynch said these are situations in which a local edge provides the greatest advantage. One example was the Pebble Beach golf course, once public but bought out for $72 million. A day after buying it, the new owner sold a gravel pit on the same property for $30 million. There were (and are) many hidden or not-so-hidden assets in many companies and industries; investors should start by looking for cash on the books.
THESE GROUP OF STOCKS ARE CALVIN'S FAVOURITES
This could be “any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the Wall Street crowd has overlooked.”
THERE ARE STOCKS IN BURSA WHICH CALVIN SEE DEEP DEEP VALUE BUT PEOPLE DON'T SEE LIKE I SEE
SO
KULIM WAS TAKEN PRIVATE
(THEY CONVERT OIL PALM PLANTATIONS TO THRIVING HOUSING ENCLAVES IN PENGERANG
THESTORE WAS TAKEN PRIVATE
THESTORE OWNS MANY VALUABLE PRIME LANDS STILL AT OLD BOOK VALUE
DAIMAN, WEIDA, TMAKMUR, AND NOW BOTH DEGEM & KBUNAI ALL TAKEN PRIVATE FOR THE SAME REASONS
I STILL HOLDING SOME OF THESE "DEAD" ASSET PLAY STOCKS
ONE OF THEM WAS PM CORP WHICH I HELD FOR 7 LONG YEARS BEFORE VALUE UNLOCKED BY CASH PAYOUT
Now critics have made judgement on Calvin buy call on all 6 category of stocks
1) You can keep stalwarts buy not cyclical or turnaround or asset play
For these you should buy when prices are cheap and out of favour. You don't keep them for ever.
You buy low and prices are up you take profit
2) Some asset play take years to see value unlocked
After issuing buy call at 6 sen Kbunai even dropped to 4.5 sen
So? Cry father and cry mother?
Then Kbunai now offered for privatisation at 11 sen for an 83.3% gain in 3 years Divided by 3 Kbunai gives a yearly yield of 27.7% (3 years = 83.3%)
SO THOSE WHO INVEST MUST KNOW
TIMING IS IMPORTANT FOR CYCLICAL
HOLDING POWER MUST BE PRESENT FOR ASSET PLAY STOCK WITH DEEP UNDERVALUATION
AND FOR TURNAROUND LIKE
OIL & GAS - THE RISE OF BRENT CRUDE WHICH TRIGGERED PETRONAS FRESH CAPEX SPENDING
IT RELATED STOCKS - PH GOVT FRESH ALLOCATION FOR "THE DIGITAL ECONOMY" WORTH RM21.6 BILLIONS WHICH IS YET AHEAD!
YES!!!
THE CATALYST FOR THESE STOCKS TO TURNAROUND = OPCOM, NETX, REDTONE, GPACKET & OCK WILL BE THE CASH INFUSION FOR NFCP FOR "THE DIGITAL ECONOMY" VERY SOON
I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.
And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.
Peter Lynch was a great fund manager. He grew the Magellan fund by CAGR of 33% for 13 years while he was managing it.
Surprisingly, the majority of the investors in his Magellan fund actually lost money. That was because these investors got into his fund when the market was hot and exited the fund when the market was down. Only those who remained long term in his fund benefited the most from the skill of Peter Lynch.
Yes, Peter Lynch has written a very good book on investing: One up Wall Street. He also has published 2 others too. His book is essential reading. In fact, you can use his philosophy to enrich your investing.
He classifies the companies into Growth companies: Fast Growers, Stalwarts and Slow Growers; and others: Cyclicals, Asset Plays and Turnarounds. I believe he made most of his money for his fund in the fast growers. Stay focus on these companies and you will do very well. It is from these fast growers that Peter Lynch have his multi-baggers gains. Make sure you put meaningful amounts of money into these companies.
Cyclicals are difficult for the average investors, unless you have a deep knowledge of the particular industry. Asset plays are sometime obvious and yet there was lack of catalyst and if held for too long, can be value traps. Turnarounds are great to have when it did turn, but the truth is most turnarounds do not turn or turn only very slowly.
Be smart. Learn from Peter Lynch. He has shared very clearly and transparently. Know his philosophy. Marry this with a bit of Graham, Buffett and Philip Fisher, and develop a powerful philosophy to grow your investment portfolio in the stock market.
For the new investors and even the seasoned investors: It is smarter to buy great company at a good price than to buy a good company at great prices. Avoid gruesome company at any price.
TOTAL GARBAGE. CUT AND PASTE ARTICLE. Insects do not harbour criminal tendency of cheating and swindling others' money. >>>
In my investing, my gains are from the companies growing its intrinsic values over many years.
I have never hoped to make profit from Selling to Suckers, which is so important to so many promoters who recommended so many stocks every days, weeks or months.
Another "Asset Play" focus was Disney World which Peter Lynch saw
People who visited Disney Land stayed in the expensive Hotels nearby
Peter Lynch saw the HUGE LAND potential in DisneyLand compound which could also be constructed into Hotel Resort to capture the rental market & he was correct
That was how his observation into ASSET VALUE that made his Magellan Fund Superb
When Peter Lynch was in Europe he visited the Volvo Factory & asked to see the Account Books of Volvo. The Bosses in Volvo were hilarious why he bothered to know and showed him all the details
Peter saw to his great delight that THE NET CASH VALUE of VOLVO is already the share price. All the rest is free. On returning to the US Peter bought Huge Chunks of Volvo shares
In Malaysia I heard sifu Tan Chong Khay of Pheim visits 600 companies every year just like Phil Fisher
I totally agree on calvin tan johor sifu mentality. I find myself posting less and less as I realized most investors are gamblers and traders and whisperers. In fact majority have no portfolio or a record of long term returns and simply post, lose money and disappear from the forum.
But one thing we do have to admit, if calvintaneng really was a simple promoter, he would have long ago loss all his major funds and dissipated from the forum.
So we have a few deductions: 1) either Calvin tan makes some money from his incessant promotions of stocks ( enough that he stays on the forum, but not enough that he can retire properly and enjoy Holland life like his johor sifu) 2) Calvin tan doesn't make money, but neither does he loses it, because his hobby is to report on stock promotion, and not to act heavily on it. he knows his long term track record overall. 3) His real income is from other business. This is due to the sheer number of promotions and the impossibility to deploy enough funds on each one to make a difference.
In either case I hope he continues to post his promotional material as it saves me time delving through bursa stocks, and it is faster for me to plot through rubbish to find veins of gold sometimes.
Long live the Promoter! (and like calvin says, do your own due diligence, and dont just see and dumb dumb buy)
I once asked My Johor Sifu why he didn't participate more in Forum chat groups.
And he told me his reason for not doing. He said that when he shared his views - others will oppose him. Sometimes so heated that he will scold them, "I am not your father or your mother why should I teach you about investments"? Since the discussion led him to be contentious he totally given up.
Because Peter Lynch worked relentlessly to find 6 category of stocks his style of investing differs from Warren Buffet
While Warren Buffet held on to 30 or more stocks Peter Lynch had bought and sold over 2,000 types of stocks in the Dow & Nasdaq
Out of these 2,000 many Cyclicals he bought and sold more than 3 to 4 rounds in their Cycles
For Malaysian Context I have bought Masteel & Prestar for years 2006/7 and made up to 50%. This round for years 2017 Feb Calvin called for a buy on masteel at 66 sen and told all to sell above Rm1.30 when price doubled
ALL THESE AND MORE WERE TAUGHT BY SIFU PETER LYNCH
you promoted at 1.55 25 april 2019. you received bonus of 46 sen. but share price today is 0.685. meaning you have lost 0.405 on this trade (26% loss). since you didn't give a sell call, I expect that you are still holding on to this unrealized 26% loss. Even more so if you reinvested your dividends into buying more kps stocks (we will never know how you think).
So what is your total return of all the stocks with all the returns? the keyword here is volume and total invested value. 27/09/2019 2:30 PM
CALVIN REPLIES
FOR KPS
AFTER IT RECEIVED A CASH WINDFALL BONANZA CALVIN KNEW INSTINTIVELY THAT KPS WILL FOLLOW PUNCAK EXAMPLE TO GIVE OUT CASH PAYOUT
SO I LOADED UP A WHOLE CHUNKS OF KPS BEFORE CASH PAYOUT OF 42.6 SEN WAS ANNOUNCED
EVEN WHEN I PROMOTED IT THE MARKET PRICE FOR KPS CORRECTED FURTHER
SO THERE WAS STRICTLY NO PUMP AND DUMP AT ALL
IT WAS AFTER THE "CASH PAYOUT WAS ANNOUNCED" THAT MR. MARKET CHASED IT UP TO NEAR RM1.70
OF COURSE I SOLD ENOUGH TO GET BACK MY ORIGINAL CAPITAL
MY REMAINING KPS SHARES ARE THEN FREE LIKE MANY OTHERS "FREE"
MY LONGEST HOLDING FREE SHARES ARE UMW WHICH I BOUGHT IN YEAR 2004 (15 YEARS) STILL HOLDING FREE UMW SHARES FOR LIFE
AND THIS SECRET WAS TAUGHT TO ME BY MY JOHOR SIFU
WHEN YOU SEE A VALUE SHARE SOLD DOWN TO BARGAIN PRICE
GO BUY X Stock for 30,000 SHARES (Just an example: could be 300,000 or 3 million shares if you want)
Then if the X Stock doubled up 100% then sell 15,000 shares first to get back original capital. The rest of the 15,000 shares will be Free For Life
BETTER STILL IF THEY GIVE DIVIDENDS
THEN YOU WILL GET FREE MONIES FOR LIFE
This secret has been with me for the last 10 years already
All through the horrible months of May to early August 2019 Calvin saw 3IB (Investment banks) downgrading Uzma to as low as 55 sen
AND Kwap was also selling and selling. So everyone was panic stricken and letting go of Uzma
That was where Calvin turned most bullish
As Sifu Warren Buffet said we must be greedy when others are fearfully selling
May quarter results for ogse entities were no good due to monsoon
BUT by August 2019 results turned better (April to June) due to excellent weather and Uzma decommissioning jobs in the open sea was calm and jobs swiftly done
So Uzma rebounded by more than 50% from its 55 sen low to above 90 sen
Now that Uzma is up and fairly valued Calvin no longer shout buy call like before
Remember the words of John Templeton
Pessimism = Seed of bull market starts
Skepticism = Bull rise up while people doubt
Optimism = Matured bull. Now stable. This is the state of Uzma now.
The bull run theme stocks of 2019 were OGSE stocks like carimin, Dayang, Penergy, Uzma and deleum due to Petronas Rapid refinery in completion and rm30 billions upstream capex
For year 2020 the Bull Theme surrounds THE DIGITAL ECONOMY stocks of
Opcom Netx Redtone Gpacket Ock
Of the above 5 Calvin top picks are Opcom, NETX and Redtone
My purpose in i3 Forum is to bring down another forum who try to con people ... namely investlah forum. My mission is done and completed with flying colour. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAH .... INSAS CANTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKK !!!
bringing down investlah forum is very easy onli ... simply stop visiting the useless forum, and come to i3 forum every day .... MUAHAHAHAHAHAH ... INSAS CANTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK !!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
teoct
480 posts
Posted by teoct > 2019-09-29 11:06 | Report Abuse
Mr Tan,
Thank you for sharing and I agree with the sharing of investment ideas.
So maybe less of god please, thank you.
Have a blessed weekend nonetheless.