Fulfill 5G theme and investor is interpret with a wrong mindset, prepare to buy aggressively tomorrow. Broadcom is planning to sell off the RF chip unit is a high switching cost for the supplier. Indirectly, this will benefit Inari as their margin will turn higher.
Huge risk : single customer. Some LT shareholders prob thought it was another pentamaster intraday rebound and prob bought for the rebound. Doesn't look good till 1.45 : Prob a punt at 1.45-1.50
Inari fully depend on Broadcom, without Broadcom Inari will be floating without direction. If you notice, all Inari new products also depend on broadcom to award to them. There are many hidden stuffs in most deal. New owner may not need Inari in long term.
Inari is just a testing and packaging company that cater most of their services to Broadcom who owns the IP technology for the RF modules. In terms of market share, Broadcom is slightly a head of Qorvo. The fact that Inari is only concentrated on Broadcom instead of producing for other is most likely due to commercial conflict of interest protection imposed by Broadcom. In addition to that, Qorvo has no reason to sub their production modules out since they have their own production line. The only RF competitor to Broadcom that sub their production works to OSATs is Skyworks. But their market share is tiny relative to Qorvo and Broadcom.
If Qorvo buys Broadcom's RF business over, Qorvo will be the single largest marketshare. The likelihood US Antitrust will block that deal would be pretty high too since it reduces competition ( A good example is Broadcom take-over deal of Qualcomm). Plus Qorvo has no reason to buy over since Qorvo already have a strong footing in BAW filters.
Therefore my guess, the potential buyers will be down to either Skyworks or Apple.
If Skyworks buys over, Skyworks existing OSATs doesnt have the necessary capacity to absorb all Broadcom's order. And why would they disrupt and shift everything to them in the first place? Inari has the proven track record and cost effectiveness. Skyworks would be shooting themselves on the foot if they ever do that for causing disruptions. Instead, i think this could also be a blessing for Inari, as they can now even compete with Skywork's existing OSATs for their orders (= more orders).
If Apple buys over, i dont see why Apple need to boot Inari out, since Apple is a software based company, they will still need OSATs to produce for them. Apple has been working with Inari indirectly via Broadcom since the first Iphone. The longterm relationship and trust they build throughout this year all pens down to their capability and cost efficiencies. Assuming Apple is the new boss for the Broadcom's RF business, Inari will still be Apple's Preferred OSATs (another one will be ASE).
With 5G theme coming in play next year, i dont see why Inari should be shaken.
@T4Q Result ( EPS: 5.60, P/E: 30.37 ) Annualized Result ( EPS: 5.96, P/E: 28.52 )
this type of P/E is vulnerable!
Many have actually done well...with this PE
Yes, I do believe in PE, However, a lot of people may even get conned if blindly buy based on PE... remember those China shoe company... MSPORTS, very low PE.. RIP.. XINQUAN.. very low PE... also RIP... so many people were trapped..
I am not saying low PE no good, Low PE company are normally very efficient company, very high profit margin from their revenue. However.. most of they time they already reach the limit of their efficiency... can't grow much already. The most they can do is to give you dividend. Every year will more or less report the same amount of profit and give you the same amount of dividend.
But high PE company, depends on why the PE is high. If high PE with shrinking revenue and asset, yes those are bad. BUT... high PE with high revenue growth and high asset growth, these are growth company with plenty of room to grow.
So basically it comes back to two things, dividend and capital appreciation. Usually the later is more tangible.
Of course I have many expensive shares with high PE in my collection like SERBA DINAMIK, Sime Darby Plantation, Sarawak Plantation, TaaNN, TM, Axiata, DiGi, MyeG, Greatec, CIMB, BIMB, KLCCP etc etc
Bottom line you need to be patience and focus on the end game. Inari does fits into the Government and Global master plan for Digital Economy. She is our potential 5G contributors.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China will offer extra financial support to manufacturers next year, the banking and insurance regulator said on Friday, after a run of bond defaults by private firms in the sector.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lizi
1,968 posts
Posted by lizi > 2019-12-19 21:02 | Report Abuse
long term weakness of inari depending on single customer exposed now.