Posted by chewck631 > 2020-09-06 09:39 | Report Abuse

The very fact that so many companies want to jump on board the gloves band wagon indicate that the demand will continue to grow for sometime. Cannot be all these companies hire fools to research and decide on such huge invest!!

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-09-06 09:40 | Report Abuse

Few things i do agree with u...

Do not try n make the last dollar...

Will not hold any single share of supermax (or maybe will hold 1 lot for sentimental reason)in 2022 (or even SH 2021)

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-09-06 09:42 | Report Abuse

Chewck631 u r wrong..99% of those co who claimed they want to venture into glove biz r mainly to goreng their share prices..especially those penny stocks..

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-09-06 09:43 | Report Abuse

Glove biz r oligopoly....not any tom dick n harry can enter

Posted by Orlando > 2020-09-06 09:55 | Report Abuse

WHO recommends wear a mask whn having sex

The more careful n wary r putting on condom too

Hidden demand KAREX

Posted by Orlando > 2020-09-06 10:14 | Report Abuse

Though do not wish tis on my worst enemy

Whn WHO or Fauci say even jz 'U can't rule out semen carrying Covid...' KAREX wil fly

Posted by Orlando > 2020-09-06 10:15 | Report Abuse

In KAREX u wil get 2 in 1 Condom n Gloves

Posted by Orlando > 2020-09-06 10:18 | Report Abuse

U do no want to b looking back in 6 month time n having to Shoulda Woulda Coulda bot KAREX whn it was below RM 1 while squeezing ur balls hard

Posted by AT1mil > 2020-09-06 10:34 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital, no offence but arguing politely. You should get more experience in stock market before managing others money.. Write this decision in your dairy and look back in 2021 and you will know how inexperience you are in managing your friends and relatives money. Sorry ya.

Posted by pBlue > 2020-09-06 10:34 | Report Abuse

What drives the glove bull run?

The Covid19 pandemic. The virus does not care about human sentiment. Why does the gloves have more to run... because there are more humans to infect. Currently 26 million people have been officially infected.... increase that by a factor of 10 to account for people who are asymptomatic... and it is just 260 million people. There are 7800 million people alive and humanity does not have immunity to this virus. Do not look at this like an economic bull run with greater fools, look at this as a pandemic with doctor having to contend with contaminated environment and hospitals that are flooding with Covid19 patients. It is bad in developing nation because they are poor and it is bad in developed nation because hospitals are not build to have excessive spare capacity. There are another 7500 million people more to go.

Vaccine typically take 5-10 years to develop. So saying we have a vaccine in 1 year is as you say expecting 9 pregnant women to give birth to a baby in 1 month. Politicians may say it time to throw a party. CEO will claim it can be done. And scientist will say we will do our best. But really the fastest vaccine ever developed took 4 years (mummps). Ebola vaccine with all modern tech of the last 2010s took 6 years to develop and test (It applied for FDA approval in December 2019).

Finally sure, you maybe willing to use the Swedish model, please consider 2 factors. (1) While the mortality rate of Covid19 is on average ~1%, this is only true if your hospitals are fully functional. 20% of people infected need medical care... as simple as antibiotics to as severe as ICU. When hospitals are pushed to their limit, the mortality rate goes up. Hospitals run of out essentials and common items, drugs, oxygen, even stuff as common as gloves. At its height the mortality rate of Covid19 in Italy was 8%, and people were saying China was hiding the true deaths as it had reported only 3.4% mortality rate.

(2) 1% mortality rate is still 1% of 7800 million people, that means 78 million people dead. More deaths than the 1918 pandemic. More deaths than WW2. In malaysia, it mean 310,000 deaths. Sweden has 20x more deaths than its neighbors. In New York, there were so many dead people, that the crematorium had to run 16 hours a day 6 days a week. Excess bodies had to be buried in mass graves and there were still bodies found rotting in the sun because Covid19 infected bodies could not be processed fast enough.

Posted by kelvin5349 > 2020-09-06 10:51 | Report Abuse

i hope you understand what you are writing in your blog here since it is read by many.i hope you do some in-depth research before coming up with such.

Posted by cruger12345 > 2020-09-06 11:17 | Report Abuse

Just because someone write something against the counter you holds you called him a fool and no in-depth research and tons of non sense. Ever asked your self that the author could be right and you are at the wrong side ? Ever asked yourself the price that you paid was much higher than the value that you get ? If you are saying the gloves companies are cheap because they can hike the ASP forever then who is the greater fool here ? Does TG shall wiorth 80 bil just because you expect that it can make 4 bil annually in the coming 2 years ? Did you ever ask yourself TG shall be valued on par with MBB even though MBB made 6 bil annually for the past 5-6 years. If it is not greater tool to push up the price I don’t know what else. But having said that if doesn’t mean you shall avoid glove counters because you could very well make more money but selling it to others who are willing to pay you higher premium. It is a hefty price that you are going to pay if you are actually speculating while thinking that you are investing in a heart company. Don’t confuse yourself . Just because you bought a fundamentally good company and paying a hue premium for it that is not consider speculating . What will you say if someone bought TG at 50,75 or even 100 isn’t him speculating that the ASP will be higher and higher forever ? This round the market maker is making a killing .

Posted by goldenluck16 > 2020-09-06 11:18 | Report Abuse

Very simple strategy, buy when there is panic selling. TAKE profit when it hits new high. In between, trade wisely, medium term still very bright for glove companies. Covid-19 is here to stay. So called upcoming companies trying their luck can't survive the competition, they just put up a lot of hypes to unload their shares.

Posted by Goldberg > 2020-09-06 11:22 | Report Abuse

CIMB Research maintain BUY on SUPERMX. - YES, A SCREAMIN BUY CALL, FOLKS-DONT MISS THE BOAT
TARGET PRICE = RM13.5
------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: 05/09/2020

Source : CIMB
Stock : SUPERMX
Price Target : 13.50
Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 9.60
Upside/Downside : +3.90 (40.63%)

Posted by inPeace > 2020-09-06 11:23 | Report Abuse

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200805/who-says-theres-no-silver-bullet-for-covid-19

WHO: There's No 'Silver Bullet' for COVID-19


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369775-covidminus-19-real-results-are-long-way-away

COVID-19: The Real Results Are A Long Way Away

We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?

No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.

Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200826/Study-COVID-19-vaccine-should-be-at-least-8025-effective-to-prevent-ongoing-pandemic.aspx

''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."

The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection


https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine

from the blog of Bill Gates
What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-surgical-gloves-ppe-makers-struggle-booming-demand-13083368

COVID-19: Surgical glove makers struggle to keep pace with booming demand



https://www.statista.com/statistics/711286/value-of-the-global-ppe-market/

Value of the personal protective equipment market worldwide from 2019 to 2027


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-counter-pressure-fda

Vaccine makers plan public stance to counter pressure on FDA



Some of the articles that perhaps you need to consider before making a fool of yourself and jeopardize your reputation. Tq

Posted by inPeace > 2020-09-06 11:26 | Report Abuse

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200805/who-says-theres-no-silver-bullet-for-covid-19

WHO: There's No 'Silver Bullet' for COVID-19


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369775-covidminus-19-real-results-are-long-way-away

COVID-19: The Real Results Are A Long Way Away

We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?

No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.

Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200826/Study-COVID-19-vaccine-should-be-at-least-8025-effective-to-prevent-ongoing-pandemic.aspx

''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."

The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection


https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine

from the blog of Bill Gates
What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-surgical-gloves-ppe-makers-struggle-booming-demand-13083368

COVID-19: Surgical glove makers struggle to keep pace with booming demand



https://www.statista.com/statistics/711286/value-of-the-global-ppe-market/

Value of the personal protective equipment market worldwide from 2019 to 2027


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-counter-pressure-fda

Vaccine makers plan public stance to counter pressure on FDA



Some of the articles that perhaps you need to consider before making a fool of yourself and jeopardize your reputation. Tq

Posted by JohnFarmer458 > 2020-09-06 11:42 | Report Abuse

CGS-CIMB (5 September) BUY call TP 13.50
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl6339_supermx_2.jpg

Affin Hwang (3 September) put overweight on Glove , BUY call
https://ibb.co/G2y0K8V

UobKayHian (4 September) put overweight on Glove , Buy call
https://ibb.co/28qKc4f

Posted by Cyrogx6 > 2020-09-06 11:44 | Report Abuse

Half past 6 article
you didnt buy because you missed the boat, if you cant adapt, then buy others like XOX, M3Tech, Lambo.
Choivo aim supermax but no aim tan sri counter ?
scared your theory wont work with TG is it ?

This common sense article, chicken seller uncle also know how to blow water

Posted by kltower > 2020-09-06 12:03 | Report Abuse

"I expect supply to normalize in 3-6 months from now, before it goes into an oversupply situation, and prices plummet." -- wrong analysis.

The actual fact is: Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000. 

Twindemic is coming, the whole year of 2021 vaccine is just 杯水车薪，小水无法救大火

Posted by alkanphel > 2020-09-06 12:09 | Report Abuse

You can write very well my brother.
To me, you sound like a geek more than an investor.
Meet more people, learn from others who are more experienced than you.
The more you know, you'd realize the less you know.
Good luck with your fund!

Posted by Goldberg > 2020-09-06 12:56 | Report Abuse

HERE WE GO AGAIN - WHEN CLOWNS MISS THE BOAT THEY TEND TO BE JEALOUS & BITTER AND END UP WIRTING RUBBISH. THEY JUST COULDNT BELIEVE THEY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME.

SUPERMAX HAS SOLID FUNDAMENTALS , EXCELLENT BUSINESS MODEL- OBM & ODN, GOOD EARNINGS ( FOR THE NEXT 4 QUARTERS) WITH 1.1 B IN PREPAYMENTS , A LEAD TIME OF 600 DAYS AND A PROJECTED PAT OF 680 MILLION FOR THE NEXT QUARTER.

MOST SCIENTIST BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH THIS PANDEMIC FOR A LONG TIME AS AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE - DUE TO MUTATIONS & REINFECTIONS. HENCE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR GLOVES ARE BRIGHT.

SUCH HALF BAKED NARRATIVES AND NONSENSICAL COMPARISONS WITH TULIPS & SARDINES REFLECTS HIS INABILITY IDENTIFY A MULTI BAGGER. YUP, A SORE LOSER.

CHOIVO, ITS STILL NOT TOO LATE TO GET ON BOARD AS SUPER IS FAIRLY VALUED AT RM15-18.

Posted by PrimarisMarine > 2020-09-06 13:06 | Report Abuse

the greater fool theory is sound but only when exuberance mania is everywhere. of course u cannot predict it but i would think only next year would the party end.
i believe when u see major sh starts selling then u will know. especially from supermax n top glove owners. they will surely dispose some no?

Posted by PrimarisMarine > 2020-09-06 13:17 | Report Abuse

according to many news sources i think the party will only end by end of next year. with oversupply, competition from locals, china etc. asp prices tapering out. lesser profit growth etc.

Posted by Goldberg > 2020-09-06 15:06 | Report Abuse

WHO says widespread coronavirus vaccinations are not expected until mid 2021

The organization is stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.

NONE of the candidate vaccines in advanced clinical trials so far has demonstrated a “clear signal” of efficacy at the level of at least 50% sought by the WHO, spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.

Posted by ruby20 > 2020-09-06 16:03 | Report Abuse

Glove oversupply in 3 months? LOL!!

Good article but that sentence alone discredit everything

Posted by Hazzyy > 2020-09-06 16:12 | Report Abuse

You can know the stupidity of the person by the questions he asked and the wisdom by the answer he gives

Posted by Hazzyy > 2020-09-06 16:37 | Report Abuse

Intelligent but not smart . Does it sound right ?

Posted by lembest > 2020-09-06 17:27 | Report Abuse

HAHAHA i rest my case

Posted by sosfinance > 2020-09-06 20:25 | Report Abuse

Actually it is quite simple, when Supermx/Top Glove next quarter exceed the research houses' consensus with double digits, and ASPs still has no sign of peaking in Nov or Dec, share price will move up (moratorium issue is temporary knee jerk).

Posted by infinity888 > 2020-09-07 03:13 | Report Abuse

I believe the greatest fool is YOU

Posted by teareader818 > 2020-09-07 06:19 | Report Abuse

Choivo, I think you missed an important point that there may be a worldwide conspiracy led by the mainstream media to heighten the fear of Covid-19 in order to destroy the world economies. CDC just admitted that in US, actual deaths from Covid-19 were only about 6% of the total announced earlier. The other 94% deaths had on average 2.6 additional causes, such as cancer, heart and lung diseases, etc. Cases of people of having died from car accidents with Covid-19, were reported dead from the disease. CDC has also bluntly stated that there have been more deaths from suicides and drug overdoses than from Covid-19. These falsified reports in the US have very much to do with the US Elections in November. Cheers!

Posted by Tryingtogetrich > 2020-09-07 07:17 | Report Abuse

Almost Everyone agree the party will end some time next year right? Look around !!!! Maybe people r starting to leave. Don’t be the last to leave oh.......... the last few to leave will have to clean out your account!

Posted by stockraiders > 2020-09-07 08:50 | Report Abuse

Petronas is not only reporting loss, but they are also jumping into the glove mania by investing into the set-up of the glove-related industry.

Posted by speakup > 2020-09-07 09:38 | Report Abuse

petronas making the chemicals for glove. their cost is the chemicals

Posted by speakup > 2020-09-07 09:40 | Report Abuse

what petronas is making is like what luxchem is making, but on a much much larger scale

Posted by Primeinvestor > 2020-09-07 09:50 | Report Abuse

STOCKRAIDER means he is smarter than petronas...HAHAHAHA

Posted by Investor > 2020-09-07 09:57 | Report Abuse

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/general-recs/administration.html

*Note: This guideline is pre-Covid*

General Precautions
Persons administering vaccinations should follow appropriate precautions to minimize risk for disease exposure and spread. Hands should be cleansed with an alcohol-based waterless antiseptic hand rub or washed with soap and water before preparing vaccines for administration and between each patient contact (1). Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations do not require gloves to be worn when administering vaccinations, unless persons administering vaccinations have open lesions on their hands or are likely to come into contact with a patient’s body fluids (2). If worn, gloves should be changed between patients.

Posted by newbie4444 > 2020-09-07 12:30 | Report Abuse

Why Superman drop? Is it KYY, OTB sold while KYY ask us to buy?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-09-07 12:32 | Report Abuse

Glove export to US on decreasing trend

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc

Posted by Jack Khan > 2020-09-07 12:52 | Report Abuse

Distribution Phase my friends. It will sideline and once awhile spike up to attract more fish then after 6 month it will start drop until normal. Sometimes may take years.
Not much flesh now only bone if you want.

Posted by Vairocana9999 > 2020-09-07 14:13 | Report Abuse

I beg to differ.

Even when WHO's prediction of mass vaccination starts in mid 2021 comes true, it is only a beginning phase because it can take years to produce ample vaccines for the world populations.

The world economy will only start the real recovery journey when efficacious vaccines are available beyond 2021.

And to declare the Covid-19 pandemic is over, it could be another few years after 2021. In fact, WHO has predicted earlier that this pandemic would only be declared over most probably in 2025.

Then only the glove demand and supply will reach an equilibrium. However, the post covid-19 ASP for the big 4 will remain high and stable, due to the structural shift in demand and the new normal caused by this once in a century pandemic.

So from now till 2021/2022, we have a golden chance to witness the explosive PATs by the big 4 in the coming qtrs, and this is also once in a century, may be.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2020-09-07 16:02 | Report Abuse

I disagree, based on:

1. HY is a trap (or collateral damage, it was never the intend of the owner to make money from goreng?), the owner from China make up the numbers, get loan, and reporting bad numbers even since. Evidence by top directors + CEO resigned (immediately after something goes wrong). JAKS (in JAKS, the owner never say they can make so much money, only KYY+ talk about their ambition), SENDAI got net cash?

Bear in mind i said similar thing about HY even before the rise. I hate to earn dirty money like that.

2. I think you are making a mistake without study in depth on the company, the technology, the pandemic, etc (or maybe you did? kindly share your insight). We may defer in opinion/conclusion but at least you study on the company first. I mean, don't talk about sentiment only, in the longer term, its always about the company.

3. Nobody knows about the future, who knows if somebody crash a plane into it tomorrow. However, based on available information, Supermax will do superbly over the next 12 months at least, it is equally risky to invest in the recovery.

4. Even after this pandemic, other disease may come. This is not a one-off event, the transmission is just amazingly fast, and therapy is so difficult. In the future, to prevent such event from happening, worldwide precautionary measure is pushing the glove industry to grow superfast year after year.

You know? China always has weird diseases, swine fever, h5n1 and we Malaysia as a country (and the rest of the world), never allow to import any livestock or uncook meat etc from China, because they will always have outbreak, forever. Only this time this pandemic is so strong due to its manmade nature. They may make more because it looks like they are winning the war.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-09-07 16:13 | Report Abuse

1. Supermax will have superb results there is no doubt about it. However... does the results match the euphoria and forward looking investments dollars to put into it moving forward? Can supermax next quarter reach 800 million? next quarter after that 1600 million? how about next quarter after that? Yes, one may not know the future, but paying the price today assuming that every year will be covid-19 year is not rational.

2. study or not, one thing is for sure: either you believe there will be a vaccine, or you believe that there will not be a cure. The probabilities of a vaccine coming out is far more likely than not, considering the entire world is rushing to produce a vaccine. The question to ask is simple: if no covid, how much will be the glove demand moving forward? If covid continues to exist... well.. different story.

3. Yes, other diseases will come, but that is not the question to ask. The question to ask is moving forward, by 2021 and on, how much more glove capacity will exist in the world? As supply will undoubtedly overload demand, how much will the price change versus supply? It is silly to assume that no one else has the capacity to produce gloves, and moving forward at such great margins, no one else will want to join in the game.

Posted by speakup > 2020-09-07 16:17 | Report Abuse

chivo is very happy now
he can buy supermax cheap
FARK!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-07 16:55 | Report Abuse

My long term fair value of supermax is maybe at RM2.

Good luck, unlikely to touch it in the interim.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-07 17:04 | Report Abuse

@supersaiyan

https://choivocapital.com/2020/05/22/ragret-del-luna-10-pe-glove-companies-supermx-7106/

https://choivocapital.com/2020/03/28/lessons-from-golconda-a-reflection-on-moving-forward/

I wrote about supermax before the super run up in May and the virus in April.

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2020-09-07 18:04 | Report Abuse

good job Choivo ...you help a lot..tq

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2020-09-07 18:31 | Report Abuse

Philip, there is a big problem in your assumption. If you think Supermax double its profit every quarter, then in a year it will be 16 times growth, one way to value it will be 1600 times PE. That will be roughly RM1000.00 Per share. If you do a DDM, NPV, etc whatever 201 stuff you will get "infinity" as an answer.

I am quite sure nobody think Supermax worth RM1000, yet.

Supermax only need RM800m next QR, then slowly towards RM1b profit. At 20 times PE, assuming 4b net profit per annum, that will be 80b market cap. That will make Supermax worth slightly more than RM30.

(At RM2 a share, if Supermax make 4b profit, that would be PE of 1.4?? Possible, but not probable. )

Choivo, I got Supermax and glove fairly early too. What i mean is to advice you to do the calculation just as you did with Airasia. Don't jump into conclusion without working it through.

Let the numbers speak. Kossan, Harta still talking about USD30-40 ASP, Supermax is aiming USD280 now. Kneel to figures.

Remember bitcoin? Monopoly money can worth USD30k.

My guess is a half year pandemic will consume 2 years production of glove. It looks like it will go on for another 9 months at least, that will create excess demand for another 4 years at least.

Posted by blood7 loves kavalan solist > 2020-09-07 18:53 | Report Abuse

hi jon, good evening....

let me share with you a very good article in i3.....
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ss2020_vaInv/2020-07-20-story-h1510636040-Bonus_issue_of_Top_Glove_Hartalega_Kossan_and_Supermax.jsp

-so your opinion would be long term holders are idiots? the greatest fools too? :p
-you use 'supermax/glove companies'... so your article also meant Top Glove too? :)

lastly....
i think in life there's 3 situation....
1)you fall in love, you chase and you succeed....
2)you fall in love, you chase and failed....
3)you stand by the side wondering if the girl is perfect before you decide to go after, but then the girl left.....

jon, i am not guru or sifu, neither am i a multi-millionaire... but i can tell you this - please, please.... don't always choose 3

hahahaha.... good luck!

Posted by godhand > 2020-11-18 20:39 | Report Abuse

looking at his article i can deduce that jon is one of the most neautral and human investor in this forum.