Posted by HITnRUN > 2015-11-04 16:14 | Report Abuse

good luck to all.

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-04 19:47 | Report Abuse

Thank you Frank Soweto for the compliment. It is The Lady Luck that help me attained 2nd place in 2015 TOC.

Let's see if MMSV will challange 80c Resistant and break it or not. VSA indicator shows a healthy 2-day upbar currently.

Posted by cmchin > 2015-11-04 22:38 | Report Abuse

When price up always Director will dispose the share. Dunno how the price can break 80c.

Posted by lloydlim > 2015-11-05 00:35 | Report Abuse

New high coming soon guys!

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-05 01:35 | Report Abuse

Rm1 :)

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-05 01:37 | Report Abuse

Cftrader, plz take a look at perstima and flbhd when you are free..:)

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2015-11-05 06:21 | Report Abuse

CFTrader haha u're too humble. u're one of the rare few who is well knowledgeable in TA n FA :) lady luck only play a small part :)
I believe today might consolidate after two Eastwind blows LOL n also not helping with overnight DJ fall - 50 n worst still oil dropped almost 3% it will at least initially open low as the mart is still sentiment based but u never know about bolihland :) Anyhow, this is one of my core holdings n hope it will continue to be a good successful turnaround story :) Thanks for sharing your views on both TA n FA :)

Posted by ccs999 > 2015-11-05 07:34 | Report Abuse

Good morning all MMSV fans, lai lai lai, heng heng arr, huat arr

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-05 07:37 | Report Abuse

Frank, same thought. I expect today it will gap up / open normal, attain a gain of around 1c, and then retrace also ...
At least 3 day of consodilation, with pinbar at 75c .

Posted by ccs999 > 2015-11-05 07:39 | Report Abuse

Morning boss CFTrader, can you pls advise also what you think on FutuTech? I am still holding tight le

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-05 07:46 | Report Abuse

chl1989, any growth driver behind at PERSTIMA and FLBHD (except strong gain from RM depreciation ? ) ?

Big money is only underlies at growth stocks.

PERSTIMA
I know this counter when kcchongnz highlight about it. Yes, i know it's OCF and FCF is good, good for dividend holding also, but it also seems .... - lack of growth story.

I categorize it as 1st order return - constant dividend return.

Hence, I am not quite interested in it.

FLBHD
I have no knowledge about it.

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-05 07:47 | Report Abuse

ccs999, i'm still holding KERJAYA PROSPEK also. Just wait till the PP done and liquidity appears. =D

Posted by ccs999 > 2015-11-05 07:58 | Report Abuse

CFTrader, I like the new name KERJAYA PROSPEK! kikiki

Nice to see you at MMSV, what is your TP? huat ar

Posted by slbzr > 2015-11-05 09:25 | Report Abuse

cmchin if the boss throw at this time , it means that this 3rd qr results should not be good, becareful lo

Posted by ccs999 > 2015-11-05 17:33 | Report Abuse

today rest first then tomoro up up up!

Posted by skoh > 2015-11-06 09:39 | Report Abuse

Long term play???

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-07 01:44 | Report Abuse

Why not ???
Late 2015 - Strong USD gain play
Early 2016 - Strong start orderbook w/ 45% compare to 30% projected.
Late 2016 - smart device order start to realize.

Posted by Lily Yuen > 2015-11-07 19:30 | Report Abuse

Look at MMSV 10 years annual report

Year --- ROE ---- Revenue  --- Profit  --- EPS
2005 --- 0.06 --- 34198759 --- 1033638 --- 2.6
2006 --- 0.03 --- 15715928 --- 573654 --- 0.4
2007 --- 0.00 --- 13464267 --- 48775 --- 0.0
2008 --- -0.04 --- 13902686 --- -846596 --- 0.5
2009 --- -0.24 --- 6383363 --- -4867443 --- 3.0
2010 --- 0.02 --- 25738642 --- 407760 --- 0.3
2011 --- 0.00 --- 18723272 --- 53956 --- 0.0
2012 --- -0.18 --- 16257120 --- -3116020 --- -1.9
2013 --- 0.22 --- 26674572 --- 5021168 --- 3.1
2014 --- 0.33 --- 39691464 --- 10455649 --- 6.4

Posted by Lily Yuen > 2015-11-07 19:34 | Report Abuse

their net profit from 2013 to current quarter report (Jun) already meets main board profit requirement > 20m. Strong fundamental company ~

Posted by Bok Tan > 2015-11-07 21:40 | Report Abuse

Tx Lily :)

Posted by charlie82 > 2015-11-08 08:01 | Report Abuse

Lily thx
very nice growth stock
1h15 status an estimate
roe-[>10%]---30%--ok
fcf-[>5% ]---27%--ok
pe--[>12 ]--11.8--ok (@75.5c)
dy--[>3.5%]-2.6%--nok (assuming 2c FY)
pnta[<1.5]---3.6--nok
net cash-----10.7c per share

Posted by Davidl > 2015-11-09 11:12 | Report Abuse

Be patients, TP1 by year 2016

Posted by HITnRUN > 2015-11-09 19:06 | Report Abuse

Sep qtr renevue not good...drop ~50% as compare to same qtr year ago......share price will drop

Posted by ccs999 > 2015-11-09 20:31 | Report Abuse

today drop mainly due to T3+T4, volume seem heathly , will continue up on wed, smile.

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-10 00:15 | Report Abuse

hitnrun? how you know? you got a crystal ball? or real shit insider news? :)

Posted by HITnRUN > 2015-11-10 18:45 | Report Abuse

to prove my fact, lets wait till this month end for qtr report then u will know.

Posted by JinAurora > 2015-11-10 23:03 | Report Abuse

HITnRUN Sep qtr renevue not good...drop ~50% as compare to same qtr year ago......share price will drop
09/11/2015 19:06

HITnRUN to prove my fact, lets wait till this month end for qtr report then u will know.
10/11/2015 18:45

Hi hitnrun, I copy your sentences at here to prevent you to delete the sentences after the result released :)

Posted by DreamMarauder > 2015-11-10 23:07 | Report Abuse

Too slow

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-10 23:47 | Report Abuse

if not, what will you do? :)

Posted by Lily Yuen > 2015-11-11 10:10 | Report Abuse

not reasonable at all for 50% profit drop, frm 2013 to Jun quarter report net profit > 20m. at this time, if management announces main board application is also possible. And from Jul - Sep is the strongest USD rate, 40% US market for MMSV. unless MMSV no order at all (low percentage), then 50% profit drop is possible.

Posted by Winstar > 2015-11-11 10:20 | Report Abuse

Heard this quarter gonna be good. So hold on
Patience is golden

Posted by Winstar > 2015-11-11 10:22 | Report Abuse

Price holding well despite market is subdued

Posted by HITnRUN > 2015-11-11 10:37 | Report Abuse

I said 50% drop in revenue not profit, last year qtr 3 revenue is 16mil, this year will drop ~50% to ~7-8mil, but if revenue drop, profit will also drop even tough stronger USD observed...wait n see..

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-11 11:58 | Report Abuse

You work in mmsv? :)

Posted by coolio > 2015-11-11 19:04 | Report Abuse

If you look at their cash flow statement, MMSV has been making positive FCF, based on discount cash flow analysis with conservative assumption, with 5% growth for nx 10 yrs. I'm taking last 4 quarters FCF for this analysis and the computation shows that MMSV fair value is 1.41. Opsss that is 97% gain from current price!!! With almost Zero debt, strengthening of US dollar, this will definitely benefit MMSV. MMSV also reward shareholder with dividend.
MMSV is definitely a good investment grade stocks, so want join the boat? fast fast before too late. hehehe..

Discount Cash Flow Model
Valuation on MMSV 11 NOV 15

Current stock price $0.715
Share outstanding (Mil) 163,000
This year FCF $12,343
Next year's FCF (mil) $12,960
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

PV of FCFF of core operations $210,000
Non-operating cash $19,042
Investment in Properties
Investment in Associates
Debts $40
PV of FCFE $229,082
Less minority interest $0 0.00%
FCFE $229,082
Number of shares 163000
FCF per share $1.41
Potential Gain 97%

Posted by Winstar > 2015-11-11 20:00 | Report Abuse

I already bought in 300 lots (300,000) to keep. Not trade

Posted by Winstar > 2015-11-11 20:21 | Report Abuse

Buy for its future prospects

Posted by guoyen > 2015-11-11 20:44 | Report Abuse

Coolio..your calculation is too ideal

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-12 00:06 | Report Abuse

Coolio, the 1st and only rule of DCF model is to be conservative...your assumption is too wild and optimistic by assuming that they are able to sustain 12mil of FCF. We must remember that cash flow is always lumpy and its industry is very cyclical. To me, i would rather take 3 years average FCF (which is about 8.84mil), assume flat growth rate @ 3% p.a. with discount rate of 10%, its intrinsic value would be around 0.915. Margin of safety (from 0.915) is 21% and upside potential is 28%. :)

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-12 00:13 | Report Abuse

Also, since u are a believer of DCF, you might want to look into perstim with high margin of safey and really solid fundamental (fulfill all coldeye 5 yardsticks; ROIC & EY >15%) + monopoly business. Intrinsic based on my DCF computation is about RM7.8 :) Irregardless of how high its intrinsic value is, the most important is how its value to be fully unlocked :) Its publicity is low and not many ppl know about this gem :)

Posted by spear > 2015-11-12 10:20 | Report Abuse

Drop drop drop!! haha drop lower !!!

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-12 10:22 | Report Abuse

Why u so happy? Haha :)

Posted by spear > 2015-11-12 10:22 | Report Abuse

lower the better!

Posted by spear > 2015-11-12 11:06 | Report Abuse

happy because i get to buy more at cheaper price lo.. simple as that

Posted by spear > 2015-11-12 11:25 | Report Abuse

aiya miss the boat liao

Posted by coolio > 2015-11-12 13:56 | Report Abuse

Chl1989, Thanks for the inputs.
Yes, you are right, cash flow is always lumpy. Actually I have done analysis on both 3 years avg & 1 year avg on the FCF. I'm putting 1 year avg FCF as I'm quite optimistic on MMSV. For me 3% growth is too low, same as inflation rate. MMSV definitely can grow higher than that. looking at their consistent profits & cash flow will tell you that, and their order book is increasing.
Anyway putting 3% growth & and putting 3 yrs average would still give you MOS of 21% which is good enough
Yeah, I have looked at perstim last week and indeed it is selling at discount but I'm not really convince with the business or I would say I don't really understand their business model.

Posted by guoyen > 2015-11-12 14:21 | Report Abuse

Then you better touch lo

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-11-12 14:54 | Report Abuse

DCF Valuation is good. But a lot of the company doesn't grow in line as the "DCF" growth rate.

The annual 3% compounding growth is best used in market cap > 1b which they are more predictable...

For this kind of 100m market cap stock, a simple 0.5m profit fluctuation make a big difference..

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-12 23:40 | Report Abuse

can't agree more. but DCF is the best reference/tool that I have for me to determine target price. it is not cast in stone, just a reference. I always try to be as reasonably conservative as I could. However, i do understand that stock price will only move if the company could deliver improving results quarter by quarter. Hopefully mmsv won't dissapoint us :)

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-11-12 23:56 | Report Abuse

coolio, for PERSTIM, if you look at its past performance quantitatively, every aspect (i.e. growth of net profit, profit margin, current ratio, free cash flow, roe, roic, ey, pe, etc) is outstanding. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Although investing is about the future, not the past, the economics of the business are usually clearly reflected from its past performance and the actions of the same management. I think you need not to worry so much about their business model. We amateur investors are not the expert of the field to judge how good their business model is. Mechanical quantitative analysis always works the best for ppl like us. Am I not right? :)