Posted by Thean Chiap > 2015-02-11 14:18 | Report Abuse

i need some enlightenment here, when is the best time to buy in this stock?

Posted by kleboy > 2015-02-11 14:48 | Report Abuse

aiyah ... how? Can CIMB hit 6.30 target ammb?

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2015-02-11 17:13 | Report Abuse

Look at FGV...Alot people give negative target,,,, RM2.00++..
But look at current price ~ :D RM2.50....
Buy on Bad news...

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-11 20:52 | Report Abuse

Drop la... Hahaha ; can slowly stock up.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2015-02-12 00:05 | Report Abuse

I m waiting Greek to declare bankruptcy... soon will affect the whole world

Posted by vinvin > 2015-02-12 08:32 | Report Abuse

Dirty heart! Think of the world at large n help people n the world to prosper n GOD WILL BLESS YOU!!!

Posted by kleboy > 2015-02-12 14:11 | Report Abuse

support you vinvin

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-12 16:29 | Report Abuse

no volatile no fun

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-12 21:10 | Report Abuse

Indonesia business financial report out

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-13 11:11 | Report Abuse

davidkkw79, i think Greek will exit the Euro. Maybe got some havoc then, chance to buy stocks

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-13 23:11 | Report Abuse

財經Espresso : 1MDB已經還債了4650
1MDB今天傍晚發表文告說，已經在期限前還清20億令吉貸款，但是文中沒有交代資金來源。

Posted by Havefun > 2015-02-14 07:25 | Report Abuse

Cimb got loan to 1MDB? If yes how much?

Posted by kaonryou > 2015-02-15 01:15 | Report Abuse

Not really.... 1MDB loan lenders are Maybank, RHB, Alliance, MBSB, and Affin-Hwang IB.

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-16 13:27 | Report Abuse

Sold one tranche today. Good price action.

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-16 13:46 | Report Abuse

Hi GoodCompanies, good 4you. My av. holding is slightly abv RM6 even though my last buy was RM5.20 . The right way to do it is - sell those lots you make money and continue to sell if in your favour. If downtrend step in , just buy it back if you feel comfortable with it.

Posted by Thean Chiap > 2015-02-16 15:34 | Report Abuse

hi guys!
do you think the price now is overvalue? what should be the buy in price ya?

Posted by alwayboom > 2015-02-16 16:17 | Report Abuse

just buy, no problem

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-16 16:33 | Report Abuse

why today it shoots up like rocket

Posted by alwayboom > 2015-02-16 16:50 | Report Abuse

cny ang pao

Posted by Havefun > 2015-02-16 17:36 | Report Abuse

Excellent!

Posted by Havefun > 2015-02-16 18:01 | Report Abuse

A potential trend reversal with higher low pending confirmation

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-16 18:04 | Report Abuse

TARGET 5.50?

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-16 18:07 | Report Abuse

Goodlah...got ang pow...
iphone4, i don't follow or calculate average purchase price. If it is calculated, i typically ignore it. I buy in tranches, each one has its own merit. I sell accordingly. This way i know which one is making money, which is not.
Also i will make sure each one do make money. I don't like the idea of the low ones subsidizing the high price ones. Also i don't want to confuse my investment decision as to why i decided to buy at that particular price in time. If it is averaged, i will not really know why, gain by how much, you know.

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2015-02-16 18:59 | Report Abuse

For me ~ I will average too~~ As FGV .. My friend stuck at RM3.00 and buy call from me...But luciky he averaged again at RM2.20 ~~ Then now he make a huge profit with that :)
Myself like to average every stock when purchase at higher price ~

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-17 10:04 | Report Abuse

Let me illustrate so everyone understand what we are talking about :)

For each tranche, it is managed individually, and tracked individually. When reaches target, it can be sold.

Price Total SellPrc Profit
100 10 1000 12 20%
100 5 500 6 20%

For averaging the share prices:

Price Total SellPrc Profit
200 7.5 1500 9 20%

U seems to be able to sell only when you reach 7.5 in price. However based on per tranche approach, it can be sold as early as 6 ringgit, not 9.

Of course the other thing that i don't like to average is the time value of money. You will not know how long you have been holding to certain shares. Using per tranche method, i will know exactly how long i have hold certain number of shares. Therefore the time value of money is not lost. Making 20% on a share for one yr, and in one month, is certainly isn't the same.

Another problem is when shares are averaged, i feel that i don't learn as much from each of the decision making in purchasing the shares. When i manage it based on tranches, i know exactly what happen to each trade. From here, i learn the result of previous decision making. This is quite valuable.

Another small issue is the transaction costs. Using per tranche method, each one must stand on their own, therefore using its own trading costs. If i use averaging method, i will need to sum up all of the trading costs together. This is more complicated if you don't sell off in one lump sump, but sold instead in tranches. This will complicate the net profit calculations. Of course per tranche method has some drawback, e.g. one of it is that it is a bit difficult to sell half of a tranche, but it has not stop me from doing that as it is only math issue.

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-17 10:21 | Report Abuse

strong bid volume. is the FR out later today?

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-17 12:16 | Report Abuse

GoodCompanies Hi tks for sharing. Can u share more details in yr tranche play with work out examples? Didn’t get the full picture.

What is the difference between allocating RM50k to CIMB to buy over 5times (5 Buy @RM10k each) and each buy @ 10% discount to the average cost (holding cost of the number of buy done). If you maintain capital gain @10% , anytime any one of that BUY you done hit the margin, make a sell.
The drawback is after 5 buys you still don't make the 10% margin on any of the five buys, you have to sit it out. Statistically this is quite impossible to hve that shitty luck

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-17 13:40 | Report Abuse

Hi GoodCompanies - I revisited your nos. Correct me if I am - 1st tranche @RM10 and markup 20% you sell it @RM12. 2nd tranche you get at RM5 and will sell at RM6. So, if TB hits RM6 you make a sell for that 2nd tranche. Think abt the allocation method I talked abt. - stay at 5 Buys, buy when down at yr agreed discounted rate and sell when TB hits yr agreed margin - you still sell by tranche. My earlier msg on 16/2

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-17 14:29 | Report Abuse

iphone4, yes, your assumption is correct. Your method is ok too, that is averaging down, which is a good way to make even more money if your particular stock is down a lot for no clear reason. Just keep in mind that if you average the prices, you lose info on the tranches you did (the 5 buys you mentioned).
When i buy by tranches, i go for minimum buy where the transaction costs is lowest. Any lower, the transaction costs will go up as usual. Sometimes i do buy a whole lot in one transaction, it all depends on the price and the sentiment. Also i keep note on the time value of money. This way, i will know for sure what my return would be. For example, if you hold CIMB shares for 22 months without gain, and then suddenly it gain 20%, you will only make about 10% a yr, not 20% (it is just for info, not performance).
Also, for each tranche, i typically set different buy targets. For example:

Tranche 1 $5 - 1000shares, to sell at 6.5 or higher
Tranche 2 $4 - 300shares, to sell at 6.2
Tranche 3 $3 - 300shares, to sell at 4
Tranche 4 $2 - 2000shares, to sell at 2.2
Tranche 5 $1 - 200shares, to sell at 1.1

The logic is simple. First establish position, second is buy on the way down (averaging down). The 4th tranche is only performed if the stocks is considered wayyy undervalued, and i think it is still good company. I will buy with everything i've got. Normally this is quite short term, and I will exit if stock is up by a few percent. The 5th tranche is speculative, and at this point, normally i will hit my max exposure limit for one stock. If the stock go down further, i will not buy. However, whatever happen, plane crash or not, i will not sell any of the shares. I will hold.
There was one particular stock i held recently, which i sold after more than a year, getting less than 10% profit. The funny thing is, after i sell it, it went up like crazy, up 300%! I regretted i exited from it completely. Now, it is always better to buy and hold if you like the company.

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-17 14:34 | Report Abuse

Another thing i like is that when the stock say reaches $1, i buy it, then it moves up to 1.1, i will sell it, then if it go back down to 1, i will rebuy, and then when it goes up again, i will resell. I can do this 10x and enjoy good money. if you do average pricing, you will not be able to do this, and will need to wait until share price is above your average buy price. As you already know, when the stock price is very low, it tends to be quite volatile, and it is time to make lots of profit! Can't do with averaging the price.

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-17 14:38 | Report Abuse

Currently i hold 5 tranches of CIMB shares, plus 2 tranches of DRIP shares. I just sold one CIMB tranche yesterday and made 5% net profit on it, after holding it only for 3 weeks. The longer i hold, the more profit i want, but the shorter the period, the less profit i will take. This is time value of money of course.

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-17 14:40 | Report Abuse

So iphone4, in my vocab, no shitty luck and no need to sit out.. :) You may try copy and try my method and see.

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-17 16:06 | Report Abuse

GoodCompanies Hi tks for the “in conversation”. I hve a fren playing quite a similar approach like yrs. but more daring. He is a believer of what goes down will move up. He depended heavy on chartnexus for his selection for the most drastic drop in prices stocks and put a buying list. Check in at the end of the day – those done he will be put a sell with a markup margin for a month on the next day. I called him playing poker without looking at his cards. Anyway he is still trading in the market and I wld assume he is making money. There is no right or wrong rules to beat the market, importantly you are comfortable with it and in the reporting period you make money

Posted by kakashii > 2015-02-17 17:24 | Report Abuse

Almost reach my selling price of 6.00.... :)

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-17 17:31 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow shoot up

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2015-02-17 19:57 | Report Abuse

My target still RM6.50 ~

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-18 09:30 | Report Abuse

iphone4, sounds like your friend is indeed playing poker! Markets tend to biasly move up, so over the long term, he will still be able to make money.
I will never buy a stock if i don't like the company and the industry enough. For example. i predicted correctly last Feb that oil price will drop and stay around 75dollars for many years to come. But i will not short the oil industry, or speculate or even buy their shares at these depressed levels. I do however keep buying renewables companies. Some predict renewables will do bad when oil price dropped, but my thesis showed otherwise. So i will keep holding and buying. There are so many companies to choose from, you can really tailormade your investment decisions and choose the right industry. Of course so few in Malaysia, so you will hv to go overseas for these companies.

Posted by rlch > 2015-02-21 16:24 | Report Abuse

Let EPF non stop buying push CIMB past RM6 next week.

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-23 17:16 | Report Abuse

GoodCompanies tks for sharing. I am more on good dividend paying companies and not a very active trader unless there is buying opportunity in stable companies. CIMB was one of them and I wld think the current TP is inclusive of all the negative news. Don't expect any buying opportunity at RM5.50 and below for a while.

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-23 21:09 | Report Abuse

When will the QFR out?

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-23 21:33 | Report Abuse

Accordingly Earnings announcement shld Feb 25, 2015. Not sure how reliable is that infor.

Posted by liciece > 2015-02-24 09:21 | Report Abuse

iphone4 & Fong Kh, CIMB had told that the latest Quarter report will be out on 27 Feb 2015-the last trading day in the month and then it will be a briefing to media.

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-24 09:49 | Report Abuse

To. Very fierce cimb

Posted by GoodCompanies > 2015-02-24 10:35 | Report Abuse

iphone4, i am not an active trader. I only buy bluechips. Even mid caps i do not buy. I reduce holdings when share is too high, i buy when i think it is really undervalued. CIMB is definitely undervalued, that i made it my largest holding. I rarely exit completely from a stock, unless the CEO cakap mengarut. e.g. a biscuit company ceo who say he will reduce the size of his biscuit so the customers don't realize it hahaha

Posted by iphone4 > 2015-02-24 12:39 | Report Abuse

liciece , tks. I wld take that by Bursa reporting requirement CIMB qtr 4 has to be in by last week of Feb 2015 and they hve chosen the last day of the last wk. BTW in any "knee jerking announcement " there cld be a buying opportunity (ie if you hve faith in CIMB in the longer term)

Posted by rlch > 2015-02-25 07:27 | Report Abuse

Last day only announce? Bad result? Any dividend? But price already up?

Posted by rlch > 2015-02-25 09:12 | Report Abuse

EPF still buying. Even 10sen dividend is consider good enough.

Posted by Booyah > 2015-02-25 09:47 | Report Abuse

Why is the price dropping today?

Posted by wjchoo123 > 2015-02-25 10:09 | Report Abuse

Booyah, feng shui said this year don't buy banking shares, china press this morning

Posted by Fong Kh > 2015-02-25 10:20 | Report Abuse

See if can back to 5.50