Posted by AhSook AhKou > 2014-07-30 20:11 | Report Abuse

Next qtr must be due out anytime now and likely to be good result , hence, price surge !!! B very careful now as it looks over price and profit taking very likely ???

Posted by 4u2c > 2014-07-31 00:03 | Report Abuse

i understand ....read too fast

Posted by Funtrade > 2014-07-31 09:21 | Report Abuse

careful. guoco get UMA

Posted by Angangang > 2014-07-31 09:55 | Report Abuse

drop...

Posted by Lim Chee Chiang > 2014-07-31 10:07 | Report Abuse

chance to get cheaper price ...

Posted by Blieve2see > 2014-07-31 15:01 | Report Abuse

price consolidating now, investor should hold for a while

Posted by Eelyn Soon > 2014-07-31 22:15 | Report Abuse

70% gains from 1.14! QLC is so generous!

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-01 10:11 | Report Abuse

guoco's reply to UMA: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1699193

Posted by cjesce_wyne > 2014-08-01 11:55 | Report Abuse

around my friend they are waiting guoco to move RM3.00. But i don't think it is posible,any comment?

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-01 12:12 | Report Abuse

rm2.53 in 6 months based on this guy's analysis: http://klgemseeker.blogspot.com/2014/07/will-guocoland-shine-again.html

yesterday US index drop, so today's market is in red, can grab a few lots at discount price imo

Posted by envision192 > 2014-08-04 12:34 | Report Abuse

will there be a privatization?

Posted by envision192 > 2014-08-04 12:36 | Report Abuse

This is my own analysis on Guoco's fair value.

Fair value: RM2.53
Current price: RM1.52
Market cap: RM1.064b
Upside: 66%

(A) Company Background
-GuocoLand (GLM) is the property arm of Hong Leong Group, with an established presence of over 50 years in property development and hotel operations in Malaysia.

-GLM also owns GLM REIT Management which is the manager of Tower REIT, listed in Main Market of Bursa. Tower REIT owns 3 prime commercial buildings (Menara HLA, Menara ING & HP Towers) and 2 hotels (Thistle JB and Thistle Port Dickson Resort). Currently, GLM effectively owns 22% of Tower REIT.

(B) Shareholders
Guocoland Limited (Listed in SGX) – 65%
Guocoland Malaysia (ESOS) – 4.4%
Tha Bank of Nova Scotia – 3.1%
Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan – 2.8%

-As you can see, Tan Sri and related parties have owned more than 75% in the company, free float is thin here.If you look at Tan Sri's other long term investment like HLIND/ HLCAP and NARRA, their share price had done exceptionally well for the past 2 year.

(C) Current and upcoming launches
Developers are moving out of central KL to places like Semenyih, Kajang, Sg Buloh and Rawang. This position definitely benefits Guocoland as they own land in Kajang, Sg Buloh and Rawang.

Rawang (50% JV basis)
(i) The Rise (180 bungalow lots at RM1.6m – RM4.7m)
(ii) Emerald Gardens (161 units of superlink houses)
(iii) Peridot (65 bungalow lots) – sold out
(iv) Amberley (semi-detached homes) – sold out
(v) Coris (double storey houses) – sold out
(vi) Coral (double storey houses) – sold out

Damansara City
One of the Guocoland’s upcoming flagship project in Damansara Heights. The iconic landmark (8.5 acres) will include 2 luxury condominium blocks, 2 corporate office towers, a lifestyle mall and international-class hotel. According to a recent report by the edge, the response of pre-launch of DC Residency is good. I would expect the condos to be fully taken up within a year. The project is expected to have GDV of RM2.5b.

Amandarii Kajang - 33 units of 2-storey bungalows

Sepang (40% JV basis)
Huge piece of land (4,800 acres) where 1,200 acres will be allocated to develop the Pantai Sepang Putra project with residential development

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2013/11/04/guocoland-plans-rm15bil-projects-in-fy14/

Melaka (50% JV basis)
Guocoland has announced they will increase stake in their JV company, Continental Estate Sdn Bhd which owns the 3,869 acres land in Melaka. The company’s capital structure consists of ordinary shares and convertible preference shares. A back to envelope calculation shows that the company is worth at least RM480m. There will be definitely be potential upside from this deal as Guoco is planning to develop this piece of land soon.

(D) Financial analysis

Revenue
Since last year, Guocoland has registered a strong growth of 130% in their revenue due to a few launches that has done pretty well. I expect Guocoland’s revenue to go higher from here as they desire to complete Damansara City’s project in 2016. A RM2.5b GDV by Damansara City will register total annual revenue close to RM800m for the next 3 years (assuming the mall/hotels and offices are sold to third party). Revenue may hit RM1b in FY2016 if all these materialise.

Contribution by JV
JV contribution has slowed down abit due to a massive launches in Rawang for the past 2 years. However, there are still huge landmark sitting in Emerald East and West waiting to be develop. With the addition of possibly launches in Melaka and Sepang for the next 1-2 years, earnings contributed by JV would set to double or triple in FY2016.

Contribution by associate
The major contribution in this segment is Guoco’s 22% interest in Tower Reit. Expect to remain flat.

PATMI
Profit after tax and minority interest have shown more than 50% growth in the past 2 years. Using a PAT margin of 15%, we could expect contribution from Damansara City alone would easily generates RM100m annually for the next 3 years.With the projects mentioned above, Guocoland could easily register RM150m in FY2015-2016.

(E) Valuation
In this case, the company did not mention most of its upcoming development and potential GDVs for their projects, thus we use per square feet basis to value

Posted by Blieve2see > 2014-08-04 16:29 | Report Abuse

your own analysis or my analysis? LOL

Posted by zx08 > 2014-08-04 16:32 | Report Abuse

envision, you are cute.. we know this is copied from blog lar.. klgemseeker.blogspot.. dun so lame lar plz.. hehe..

Posted by envision192 > 2014-08-04 16:56 | Report Abuse

:I

Posted by lottolearn > 2014-08-05 07:40 | Report Abuse

haha,zx08 you are right. I also read the blog yesterday, very good write up. My sifu ask me must follow this blog from now.

Posted by stockcrazy > 2014-08-05 11:00 | Report Abuse

to who have bought in Guoco at RM1.70 and above is the right choice. my target for Guoco is RM2.16 and final is RM2.90.

Posted by sjou > 2014-08-05 17:15 | Report Abuse

stay 1.84, week end 2.00 no problem...

Posted by zx08 > 2014-08-05 17:27 | Report Abuse

Lottolearn, who is ur sifu.. Ur sifu smart.. Get to know whom to follow.. Today guocoland another greenlight day.. Cheers klgemseeker.. Alrdy bookmarked his blog.. Huat

Posted by Newbees > 2014-08-06 11:54 | Report Abuse

Can check with the sifu how about it's financial report which should had dued & also the Bursa query on UMA?

Posted by izzuddinalqasam > 2014-08-07 12:14 | Report Abuse

own analysis,,,ha,,ha,,haa,,

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-07 12:49 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/24391.jsp

Posted by kwah > 2014-08-07 13:00 | Report Abuse

The only counter can make your family and you rich. Stay invest in this counter.

Posted by Newbees > 2014-08-07 14:54 | Report Abuse

Wow! Good time to collect now...

Posted by OrangMinyak > 2014-08-07 16:15 | Report Abuse

super strong selling force.

Posted by Angangang > 2014-08-07 16:43 | Report Abuse

Big drop....

Posted by valuemaster > 2014-08-07 16:43 | Report Abuse

kenanga's tp today

An RNAV play. Primarily, our RNAV is driven by revaluation on its
landbank, investment property and inventory value to market prices. Only
DC’s project is valued based on DCF of its future profits. Thus, our
valuations are conservative as we are opting for land-driven RNAVs rather
than assuming full development value of each landbanks. We derive an
RNAV of RM5.89 and assume a steep 50% discount (higher than our
average discount applied on developers of 31%) to derive a TP of RM2.95.
We recommend that investors buy on weakness as we strongly believe that
Guocoland is severely undervalued. Trading BUY.

Posted by Alpha Trader > 2014-08-07 17:19 | Report Abuse

it is not, it is just some traders liquidated their t8 position

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-07 17:54 | Report Abuse

the fundamental of the company is strong, drop a bit only don't takut sini takut sana

Posted by darrenwonghc > 2014-08-07 19:00 | Report Abuse

Keep investing ...

Posted by Jimmy Lim > 2014-08-07 23:26 | Report Abuse

Sell

Posted by bmwm5 > 2014-08-07 23:34 | Report Abuse

will still drop for profit taking

Posted by klse007 > 2014-08-08 02:35 | Report Abuse

trap....run

Posted by Investeye > 2014-08-08 08:02 | Report Abuse

Interesting stock..will monitor closely if this drop may be opportunity especially the solid background from hong leong group.

Posted by amywong111888 > 2014-08-08 08:56 | Report Abuse

can buy in today ?

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-08 09:16 | Report Abuse

seriously drop a bit a bit kaopekkaobo one just don't invest in stock, go play somewhere else

Posted by assaji > 2014-08-08 09:55 | Report Abuse

good chance to buy yesterday and today...expect it to move very soon with this kind of report.
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2014/08/guocoland-no-brainer.html

Posted by kytan > 2014-08-08 10:41 | Report Abuse

wah..few article cover this counter yesterday and today
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/57298.jsp 8 Aug
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/klgemseeker/57264.jsp 8 Aug
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/57218.jsp 7 Aug

Posted by kytan > 2014-08-08 10:42 | Report Abuse

today market is red, best time to collect.

Posted by Joel > 2014-08-08 10:50 | Report Abuse

Agreed to collect GUOCO below rm1.70.

Posted by yongyou > 2014-08-08 13:00 | Report Abuse

what is the estimated TP?

Posted by Joel > 2014-08-08 13:06 | Report Abuse

RNAV of RM5.89 and assume a steep 50% discount
(higher than our average discount applied on developers of 31%)

to derive a TP of RM2.95.

Kenangan recommend that investors buy on weakness as we strongly believe that Guocoland is undervalued !

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 13:07 | Report Abuse

Good time to collect!!

Posted by Joel > 2014-08-08 13:17 | Report Abuse

It seem like SHL pattern to grow.

Posted by tlbeng > 2014-08-08 13:31 | Report Abuse

to me it looks like another Gadang

Posted by hw0706 > 2014-08-08 15:10 | Report Abuse

i just wonder what the company will do with it. i do nto see quek will really make the move

Posted by Joel > 2014-08-09 22:45 | Report Abuse

thanks , assaji.

Friday, August 08, 2014
Guocoland, No Brainer

This is a no brainer but as with most value traps, its best to ignore them unless there are catalysts. However, there are reasons to believe the wheels have started with Guocoland which will make them a fantastic short to medium term hold. Bearing in mind the RNAV is closer to RM6.00.

Reasons/Catalysts

a) It appears Quek is on his way to restructure many of his companies. He did it with Narra/cement, and there are whispers that Southern Steel will follow after Guocoland.

b) The botched privatisation of HLG Capital thwarted by Dr Yu of YNH Property would lend a lot of credence to the belief that if Quek wants to do a privatisation this time, it would not be a half wait and see tactic. The last thing he wants is another Dr Yu into the fray in his quest to take Guocoland private.

c) Even more than HLG Capital, Guocoland is all the more important for it to be taken private with its resplendent landbank and deep uncorked value.

d) So, either you do smthg quickly, ... you do not want to be wishy washy and make a low offer, or worse,.. no offer... all the while when you can see someone is playing or accumulating your stock.

For me, I will buy b4 realty come true.

Posted by FX Lee > 2014-08-11 09:12 | Report Abuse

open high goes lower

Posted by FX Lee > 2014-08-11 10:40 | Report Abuse

GUOCOLAND
TP: RM2.53
Current price: RM1.79
Market cap: RM 1.25 Billion
Company Background
-GuocoLand (GLM) is the property arm of Hong Leong Group, with an established presence of over 50 years in property development and hotel operations in Malaysia.
-GLM also owns GLM REIT Management which is the manager of Tower REIT, listed in Main Market of Bursa. Tower REIT owns 3 prime commercial buildings (Menara HLA, Menara ING & HP Towers) and 2 hotels (Thistle JB and Thistle Port Dickson Resort). Currently, GLM effectively owns 22% of Tower REIT.
Developers are moving out of central KL to places like Semenyih, Kajang, Sg Buloh and Rawang. This position definitely benefits Guocoland as they own land in Kajang, Sg Buloh and Rawang.
Rawang (50% JV basis)
(i) The Rise (180 bungalow lots at RM1.6m – RM4.7m)
(ii) Emerald Gardens (161 units of superlink houses)
(iii) Peridot (65 bungalow lots) – sold out
(iv) Amberley (semi-detached homes) – sold out
(v) Coris (double storey houses) – sold out
(vi) Coral (double storey houses) – sold out
Damansara City
One of the Guocoland’s upcoming flagship project in Damansara Heights. The iconic landmark (8.5 acres) will include 2 luxury condominium blocks, 2 corporate office towers, a lifestyle mall and international-class hotel. According to a recent report by the edge, the response of pre-launch of DC Residency is good. I would expect the condos to be fully taken up within a year. The project is expected to have GDV of RM2.5b.
Amandarii Kajang - 33 units of 2-storey bungalows
Sepang (40% JV basis)
Huge piece of land (4,800 acres) where 1,200 acres will be allocated to develop the Pantai Sepang Putra project with residential development
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2013/11/04/guocoland-plans-rm15bil-projects-in-fy14/
Melaka (50% JV basis)
Guocoland has announced they will increase stake in their JV company, Continental Estate Sdn Bhd which owns the 3,869 acres land in Melaka. The company’s capital structure consists of ordinary shares and convertible preference shares. A back to envelope calculation shows that the company is worth at least RM480m. There will be definitely be potential upside from this deal as Guoco is planning to develop this piece of land soon.

Posted by kelvinongbk > 2014-08-11 16:56 | Report Abuse

If everyday goes up 10 cents..later kena UMA...better up 5 cents everyday....TP still in sight...will take slightly longer only