@ bennylim8. The coke futures in the DCE is rather volatile. It is important to note that Huaan is on the mend and benefitting from the cyclical recovery of the steel prices. As commodity moves in cycles, the world is currently experiencing the early recovery run on steel prices and by extension the prices for coke and it's by-products. Remember that Huaan impaired its ovens during the shutdown and will gradually reverse the losses going forward as the ovens come on stream.
BTW, thanks for the early warning on the expected correction of equity markets across the globe. I personally think this will happen sometime from 2019 onwards. Anyway, let's hope our market stay safe for at least another year, cheers.
Wow ... coal tar today up AGAIN, by 130 to 4411.75 ! Even if coal tar maintain this rate for the rest of Dec, it will make EXTRA 5 million ringgit profit in Q4 ! But coal tar is expected to go up further, so expect it will make extra profit of MORE THAN 5 million ringgit profit in Q4 ! This will boost Huaan earning greatly. Wonderful ! http://www.sci99.com/monitor-386-0.html
Linyi coke spot reach 2,000 today. If this 2,000 is maintained for the rest of Dec, then Huaan Q4 coke average price will be 1,931. This is quite close to Huaan Q2 coke average of 1968.
So estimated Q4 earning = 1.9 + 0.58 + 0.53 = 3.01 sen
1.9 is the Q2 earning 0.58 is the Q3 by-products extra 6.5 millions profit (6.5 mil / 1,123 NOSH) 0.53 is the Q4 by-products extra 6 millions profit (6 mil / 1,123 NOSH)
If we factor in the profits from hedging (pls see my comment on 19/11) and 78% increase production volume (pls see my comment on 14/11), then Huaan Q4 profit will be more than 6 sen !!
But coke futures drop sharply today, will this may affect the spot rate?
Yes, drop in the futures will affect the spot, but NOT in the immediate term. Spot follow the futures in DELAYED fashion, delayed by several weeks to 1 month.
Similarly, as coke futures start to drop this week, so we expect spot will drop in about 3 weeks time. So in the meantime, Linyi current spot of 2,000 is expected to be maintained until late December.
But if coke futures continue to drop, should this be a concern?
On the face of it, it is a concern, but actually it could be a BLESSING IN DISGUISE !!!!
About 1 week ago, on 1/12/17, analyst already said the current coke futures rise will not last.
"焦炭基本面扭转颓势尚需时日。从基差来看,当前焦炭期价缺乏持续上涨的基础." Still take time for coke to reverse the weak fundamentals. From the basis of difference, the current coke futures lack basis for continued rise. http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/2226,20171201808131093.html
So when coke futures contract J1805 go above 2,200 for the past few days, Huaan may hedge (sell) the coke futures because coke price at 2,200, Huaan could make good profit. http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1805.shtml
Let us say Huaan hedged (sell) only at 2150, and by January 2018, contract J1801 may bottom at 1800 and Huaan buy back at 1850, then Huaan will be making profit of 300 per ton (i.e 2150 - 1850) in hedging for Q1 2018 !! This hedging 300 per ton profit will be added to the Huaan Q1'18 coke spot average to give Q1'18 another STRONG quarter again !!
Looking forward to huaan use their 4th and 5th oven on Q2 or WE when winter end + policy end at March.. recovering of metal supply to fulfill the market needs. = )
Fine with me all tgese analysis about coke, tar price , but why the share is pressed down and buy who? Who is benefiting from pressing the sgare down? Is there any new investor whant to collect cheap,, or is this a Huaan operator strategy, as i see from the chart?..who can give me a convincing answer?.
U all here bising bising amt the coke price for what now this stock anytime to be delisted .... whats the point of coke price ... come on pls dun trap others to died together with u all !!! Pls
huaan share price can go up tomorrow if main shareholder buy today..people become more confident and buy more...hhihihi hope this comment reach main shareholder hahahaaha..
Uncle Lim, be carefull what you say here as if Huaan is NOT delisted, we will charge you with spreading fals news here, unless you show us some evidence.
I heve decided to stop buying Huaan untill i see the bottom price. I will enter again once the share start to move up, as long as the share continue to drop i will hold buying till further notice..
becoming like CSL soon. all china stock 99 goreng one la. they don't dare to apply ipo in other stock exchange, but choose malaysia. because the rules not that strict, easy to pump dump and lari
So if Malaysia rules are easy than there should be no problem for Huaan to get green light from bursa malaysia for its compliance to pra 8 and maintain his listing.
Just buy for own risk, if u think will delist, then don't touch... If u not comfort to invest on a China company, just don't touch.. if u think it is a chance, then u may give it a try..
Yeh keep going up coke price is hot and unusual in Dec, this coukd also mean that Jan and Feb coke price may be even higher. High demand for steel for world wide market, especially for China market and Asia, big project is kicking off next year that required increase in steel production, so as increase in coke production as well.
It is clear that Huaan next QR will be excelent again. The only thing we need now is Huaan share to start climbing back to 0.3 to give confidence to its shareholders. 1 cent up per day is a good sign.
Don't top up on this time, 0.235 is the resistant, it will be going down again. After big seller dump later. The seller just hide for today. Today close 0.235, tomorrow 0.225 again.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Uncle_Lim
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Posted by Uncle_Lim > 2017-12-06 22:41 | Report Abuse
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