Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-11-26 15:11 | Report Abuse

lol, please displose more then you will regret, china tourist will come and it will boost Alchohol industry, and new year & christmas coming soon

Posted by himbaan > 2023-11-28 10:45 | Report Abuse

asahi not really popular in malaysia.

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-11-30 22:16 | Report Abuse

Time will prove it is golden chance to collect it, get ready for crashing after ex-date

Posted by ryoyagod > 2023-12-01 14:02 | Report Abuse

but Carlsberg is popular in Malaysia

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-02 10:58 | Report Abuse

"The non-renewal of the Asahi Agreements is expected to have an annual net profit impact of approximately RM30 million for the financial year ending 31 December 2024 and this will be progressively mitigated by the introduction of Sapporo in 2024 pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the Company and Sapporo Breweries Limited on 1 November 2023."

30 million p.a. is big, but if we assign a PE of 20, this is roughly RM2 impact to shareholders.
But company has Sapporo to mitigate, so, longer term impact should be less than RM2.
So, I will be slowly accumulating for the long term. Current holdings is small around 2%.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-02 11:06 | Report Abuse

CARLSBG past 8 year EPS/DPS are growing, but not a steady growth:
Year: EPS / DPS
2015: 71 / 77
2016: 67 / 72
2017: 72 / 87
2018: 91 / 100
2019: 95 / 100
2020: 53 / 40
2021: 66 / 56
2022: 104 / 88
2023E: 100? / 86?

So, if just look at 2023 to compare against 2022 and if we factor in loss of Asahi in 2024, CARLSBG looks set to declare lower EPS and lower DPS. Hence it's price has fallen and rightly so.

And if you look at COVID impact to its business in 2020, its EPS dropped substantially in 2020, i.e. it's business is not immune to pandemic (but so are vast majority of busineses) - I can accept this lack of resilience during pandemics.

But if you are willing to take a 8 year view (most investor aren't), then, this is nothing like BAT at all. This company grows in the long term. Maybe the historical high growth is over, but it should still grow because unlike BAT which as vaping and other alternatives, CARLSBG alternatives looks much smaller in comparison and I would think this stock is decent to add to one's long term dividend portfolio, but having said that, I only have 2% and I wouldn't be looking at adding to more than 3% of my portfolio. > 40 of my stocks pays dividends, including CARLSBG.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-02 11:10 | Report Abuse

Maybe better to have waited a bit for around 18-18.5 as I mentioned in July, but 19+ was tempting. Personally, I'm not expecting a turnaround within next 6-12 months, so there should be plenty of time to accumulate.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-02 11:18 | Report Abuse

PAS fears, and political extremism is a valid risk when looking at Malaysia long term (anyone who observed the past 40 years can see this very clearly), hence, the growth in the past is unlikely to be repeated in the future, but human behaviour (to drink) is a longer constant in my personal opinion, so, to me, the net effects should still be long term growth, just, maybe not as high as before due to rising alternatives (but we are talking long term here).

Posted by ryoyagod > 2023-12-13 13:30 | Report Abuse

Invest it for long-term and get good dividends 😊

Posted by elainao > 2023-12-20 18:53 | Report Abuse

Frightened Faces: https://fivenightsatfreddys2.co Five Nights at Freddy's Panic

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-20 22:34 | Report Abuse

CARLSBG testing 19.4x resistance zone. Half expecting we've seen the low already, but will know in next few weeks. If it gets stopped at this resistance zone, we'll be looking to accumulate more at lower prices to keep long term.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-20 22:34 | Report Abuse

Today, both CARLSBG and HEIM helped made my portfolio hit new all time high.

Posted by ryoyagod > 2023-12-26 13:53 | Report Abuse

I m sure it will shoot up before 2024 CNY

Posted by chamlo > 2023-12-27 15:08 | Report Abuse

PAS getting more support because Unity Govn fail to control alcohol sales?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-12-29 00:02 | Report Abuse

Looks like resistance zone around 19.4-19.6 held the past 3-5 trading days. Hopefully, price will dip down to around 19+ to allow accumulation again.

Posted by ryoyagod > 2024-01-02 16:39 | Report Abuse

Did it dip to the price that you wanted today, DividendGuy67?

Posted by goldenhope > 2024-01-04 14:07 | Report Abuse

19.00

Posted by ryoyagod > 2024-01-05 11:54 | Report Abuse

Catch some at 18.98 to ride with CNY wave 😉

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-05 16:59 | Report Abuse

support strong

Posted by All_in_2021 > 2024-01-05 17:34 | Report Abuse

wonder why HEIM performs better than CARLS..

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-05 17:41 | Report Abuse

HEIM brand much stronger then Calrsberg .. Tiger and Stout however in premium market Carlsberg is catching up ... eventually if no politics issue its just matter of time ... will wait patient ... Friday so go buy carlsberg happily top up today

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-08 09:25 | Report Abuse

Don’t miss the boat last chance before CNY rally

Posted by INVEST_AA > 2024-01-08 17:27 | Report Abuse

Good stock to collect prior to CNY yum seng …and also with decent dividend yield

Carlsberg will move soon…

Posted by smartly > 2024-01-08 17:29 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/04/brewers-to-benefit-from-ongoing-tourist-recovery

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-08 21:15 | Report Abuse

This year CNY is in Feb which sales volume will be increasing ....... Tourist growth will sustain the sale later while olympic on July will help on Blanc sale .. provided carlsberg don't ovespend on marketing and cost does not increase it shouold be a good year .

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-08 23:14 | Report Abuse

@ryoyagod, yes, added 18.94 recently.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-08 23:17 | Report Abuse

More than 50% chance to get lower prices, if RM18.9 support is broken. No rush. If support breaks, then, the long term buyer is happy to be able to accumulate more at lower prices.

I'm not a fan to sell near CNY. This is too short a period. My time horizon is measured in multi years. After adding at 18.94, my CARLSBG on market value basis is only 2.4% of my entire portfolio. As it is small, it didn't stop my portfolio to make new all time highs 4 times already this month.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-08 23:24 | Report Abuse

Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG EPS grows by around 6% per annum. DPS by around 4% per annum growth. It think FYE2023 DPS can be around 85 sen or higher. This is 4.5% dividend yield growing say 4% p.a. long term which is not a bad thing. For some reason, market is feeling fearful right now.

The benchmark is MAYBANK which gives higher dividend yield around 6.5% but slower dividend growth rate say around 1% per annum, but this kind of numbers varies a lot depending on the day that you measure.

In short, stocks like these are good to buy when it is on sale, as these businesses are decent (not the best but decent) quality business. They should give returns slightly higher than EPF long term average returns of 6% per annum or so.

These kind of stocks are not get rich quick, but get rich slow stocks. I love them.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-08 23:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-08 23:31 | Report Abuse

Buy decent quality stocks when it is unpopular. I bought GENM and GENTING silently when it was unpopular. So, I manage to accumulate decent sizes. Today, my portfolio made new all time highs because of GENM, GENTING and 18 other unpopular stocks that I bought when nobody was excited.

Excitement and Expenses are the Chief Enemies of Investors. If you buy stocks feeling excited of prospects of gains and chase them and pay high prices with large % of your portfolio, you may feel excited for a while, until the reversion and you may then feel sad later. Don't get caught in these kind of emotional roller coaster.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-09 00:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by himbaan > 2024-01-15 11:31 | Report Abuse

sapporo in the house.....

Posted by ryoyagod > 2024-01-19 11:54 | Report Abuse

Pretty sure it will break RM20 during CNY 😀

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-22 08:37 | Report Abuse

I think the catalyst will be Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 … I expect around this year it will reach its previous best 23 at least short term indeed 20

Posted by ryoyagod > 2024-01-22 10:42 | Report Abuse

After CNY then for its Q4 2024

Posted by Xcalibre > 2024-01-23 10:22 | Report Abuse

Good time to collect…Buy buy buy.. CNY rally coming

Posted by dam82 > 2024-01-29 19:38 | Report Abuse

aiyoo tidur lah carlsberg biler nak bangun wei

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2024-01-29 20:59 | Report Abuse

heim up 8%, this one up 1%, terrible

Posted by INVEST_AA > 2024-01-31 13:33 | Report Abuse

Yum Seng… CNY rally coming soon… Make sure onboard before regret…

Posted by dam82 > 2024-02-05 10:17 | Report Abuse

only upcomig QR will set the direction Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 ... waiting patiently ...

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-05 11:05 | Report Abuse

q4 must show at least 600m revenue, then final div will have 25sen minimum

Posted by ryoyagod > 2024-02-05 11:20 | Report Abuse

I got the same estimation like you, smartly. Mine one was RM620 mil - RM640 mil to be exact

Posted by dam82 > 2024-02-07 15:08 | Report Abuse

MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE The beer markets in Malaysia and Singapore were challenged by the macroeconomic slowdown. In Malaysia, volume development was better than the market and our market share improved. In Singapore, market share was flat, supported by share gains in all categories except premium, which was subject to high promotional pressure in the market. -- Q4 for from parent company

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-07 15:24 | Report Abuse

ok la. as long as Singapore's ex.rate remain high at 3.55, revenue would remain steady for q4.

Posted by dam82 > 2024-02-07 15:43 | Report Abuse

with the SD is strong should help MYR result ... but memang slow for this to move up compared to heineken

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-07 16:02 | Report Abuse

"because of heim's undemanding valuations and the company's cumulative 5.5% dividend yield, backed by relatively inelastic demand for its products...", so can run faster. :p

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-07 17:20 | Report Abuse

2836 CARLSBG CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2023
Quarter: 4th Quarter
Financial Year End: 31/12/2023
Report Status: Unaudited
Submitted By:
Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Current Year to Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period
31/12/2023 31/12/2022 31/12/2023 31/12/2022
RM '000 RM '000 RM '000 RM '000
1 Revenue 580,533 612,754 2,260,899 2,412,465
2 Profit/Loss Before Tax 96,719 89,114 420,360 444,405
3 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 84,018 60,121 333,240 317,046
4 Net Profit/Loss For The Period 85,756 62,444 340,842 324,861
5 Basic Earnings/Loss Per Shares (sen) 27.48 19.66 108.99 103.70
6 Dividend Per Share (sen) 31.00 25.00 93.00 88.00
As At End of Current Quarter As At Preceding Financial Year End

Posted by dam82 > 2024-02-07 17:21 | Report Abuse

so how ... still got hope ?

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-07 17:21 | Report Abuse

lower revenue at 581m but higher net profit 84m

Posted by smartly > 2024-02-07 17:22 | Report Abuse

31sen dividend. higher then last corresponding Q