Posted by Najib Zamry > 2015-12-30 14:51 | Report Abuse

Superman 99, you can google it.....type malaysia car sales or you can go to Paul Tan website.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-30 15:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks, NajibZ, I got it from cari.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-30 15:20 | Report Abuse

I have been buying since the beginning of Dec... :), now getting tough to buy, someone is chasing... :(

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2015-12-31 01:04 | Report Abuse

Yes, agreed, dark horse of 2016, my average price is 3.122

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 09:11 | Report Abuse

Collect & wait for things to happen, buy when no one chasing, that's the golden rule.

To get reward, you may need to hold the stock for 3-6 months.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-31 09:52 | Report Abuse

wah up 14 sen... superman flexing his muscle..

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 09:54 | Report Abuse

Once I did my research & analysis for CCB, after reading tradeview's article, I feel very excited as much as I found Gadang through icon8888's article.

The stock meets all my criteria of stock selection.

While waiting Gadang to truly reflect its fair value, CCB's price is still at the early stage & has much bigger room.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 10:00 | Report Abuse

Ah, i was not aware price was up, icon, now i got you.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 10:15 | Report Abuse

CCB is top 10 gainer now, see if it can sustain at this level.

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2015-12-31 10:18 | Report Abuse

Branding,sales,profit,cash flow. CCB got it all. This is what we call value investing.

Posted by domperrier > 2015-12-31 11:57 | Report Abuse

Go go GO! :D

Posted by Asia88 > 2015-12-31 12:50 | Report Abuse

Hohoho, up up up

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 13:02 | Report Abuse

Read the recent news on 8/12/2015:

Mercedes-Benz Malaysia optimistic to sell more cars next year
(http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2015/12/03/mercedes-benz-malaysia-optimistic-to-sell-more-cars-next-year/)

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2015-12-31 15:16 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, Your Flexing Mudajaya too. Hehe

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2015-12-31 16:34 | Report Abuse

This is a company managed by reputable Jardine Fleming who is famous for their corporate governance and business acumen. Not Chinaman company who claims to have big huge cash pile but cannot even pay single sen of dividend.

Posted by cooldownguy86 > 2015-12-31 16:57 | Report Abuse

Brother icon8888 need to write a piece on this one. Looks promising.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 18:01 | Report Abuse

NajibZ, agreed. The one top the list is Plenitude.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 23:05 | Report Abuse

Najib Zamry, I think I misunderstood you, you are talking companies from China. Yes, totally agreed, AVOID from investing any China companies. You will suffer all kinds of possible corporate issues from these companies.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-31 23:54 | Report Abuse

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY BUDDIES HERE!!!

Posted by The One > 2016-01-01 01:17 | Report Abuse

Already overpriced laa. Better lock in profit and buy on weakness. Trade wisely.. gudluck..

Posted by murali > 2016-01-01 08:49 | Report Abuse

I dont really understand why out of a sudden this co can post very good Q results...they have been struggling like hell for the past few years...the emergence of Hap Seng Star few years ago makes the competition worse and erosion in profit margin..how come suddenly become so good...are they selling some car models which are not being distributed by Naza n Hap Seng Star??

Posted by bukithot > 2016-01-01 09:30 | Report Abuse

Bro murali, good result is because much higher number of mercedes sold this year - coz their introduce some new models that are well received by market this year

Posted by murali > 2016-01-01 09:31 | Report Abuse

Yeap..i knew..but are the other 2 fellows selling these new models too?

Posted by murali > 2016-01-01 09:32 | Report Abuse

The 3 dealers are C&C, Naza n Hapseng Star..I was told 3 of them shared the market share quite evenly...dont know how true it is...

Posted by murali > 2016-01-01 09:33 | Report Abuse

They have been fighting with each other by lowering their profit margin for the past few years....

Posted by Money_Master > 2016-01-01 11:52 | Report Abuse

Actually CCB owned 49% of Mercedes Malaysia.

Hence, indirectly, CCB will be profit from every Mercedes sales.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-01 19:27 | Report Abuse

Hi guys...just wanna ask -
most the of the TP price quoted here (range from RM4 to RM5) is based on PE & EPS valuation. The problem is that FY2015 is the best year for CCB. I believe that if we based our TP of RM4 based on the best performing year (2015), then, what happens if CCB cannot sustain their EPS performance for FY2016?

What i am trying to say is that we are using a past performing PE to judge the future share price. Then, we adjust the PE multiple from 7 (current P/E) to future PE of 10. What justifies this adjustment?

No doubt - the guys from Mercedes is saying 2016 is going to be comparable or better than 2015. But the macro economics outlook does not support this. I am not an expert in cars - so , i cannot comment on the automative industry. Indeed, i just drive around in a 1995 proton wira.

Assuming if PE is just 8. Let us not compare the PE of CCB with UMW (Toyota) or other car Korean Cars or Japanese Cars distributors as what Superman99 has done. THey are serving the mass market whilst CCB is serving a premium high end market. Assuming if we reduce the EPS from $0.55 (annualised per SuperMan 99) to $0.40. This will only generate RM3.20 which is considered fully priced in by the market now.

I do not know which PE to attribute to CCB. Of course, if we use a PE of 10, then RM4 is easily acheivable assuming if FY2016 will generate RM0.40 EPS.

How do we justify using a PE of 10???

Posted by DreamKaiser > 2016-01-01 19:30 | Report Abuse

what TP

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-01 19:31 | Report Abuse

In summary, what i am trying to say is that
PE = 6.18 = share price of RM3.40/ EPS of RM0.55 (annualised) = 6.18
However, this EPS is based on the best performing year 2015. Assuming if we maintained this PE of 6.18, for the share price to remain constant , then 2016 needs to be operating at this level of EPS RM0.55 to justify this share price.

So, what is the most reasonable PE to use and what is the expected EPS for next year? Assuming if we use an EPS of $0.40, and a PE of 8, then, we can achieve RM4. But then, how do we justify a PE of 10?

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-01 23:16 | Report Abuse

Hi kancs, sum up PE for 2008 to 2014, exclude 2013 as it will be unrealistic, then divided by six years.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-02 00:27 | Report Abuse

Let's talk about market perception on PE, if look at all companies in bursa, every company will have different PE ratio. Even companies within the same industry may have different PE as well.

First of all, PE 10 is my target price, not my estimation on how the stock should go, you may have your own target price over CCB, say7, 8 or 9, I am ok with it anyway, as there are hundreds of people out there selling their CCB shares now at the current price/PE.

I can't decide for market & I do not think I have any authority or power to convince everyone to accept my view, or else, the price should have gone limit up on 31/12/2015 then.

I just want to share how I get it & hope you can understand my basis, agreeable or not, it is your choice. As I say in article, you are welcome to disagree. (I did mention in my article)

Mr Market is the one who will decide what is the right PE should go for a particular company. (Though Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett always think that Mr Market is always changing its mind or view on all stocks day in day out.)

Why I use historical average PE for the stock? Because that was the market view for the stock over the past years.

I have no idea why CCB is trading at lower PE than other car distributors, but I think everyone can put up as many assumptions as he wants to explain on the situation. I don't think I will spend my time of doing that.

Same goes to Gadang, I have no idea why Gadang was dropped from RM2 to RM1.16, then went up again to RM2.15, all happened within 6 months. All I can say is Mr Market is so unpredictable.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I use the same basis of calculation to find out that CCB match my all criteria.

When Gadang & CCB are doing very well year after year for past few years, the PE is getting lower at the same period of time, then it is very interesting to me, it is where I see it as an opportunity to invest.

I think I have mentioned many times in various forums that first thing comes to my mind is the safety of my hard earned monies. Low PE is always providing good Margin of Safety.

Rule No.1: Don't lose money
Rule No.2: Always remember rule no.1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I make good money from reading Icon8888's articles on Gadang in i3 forum & after doing my own homework. I think CCB is another good opportunity to me & I would like to return the same favour to i3 forum users by sharing my homework done on CCB.

Hope everyone can see what I see, I may not correct anyway & you should responsible & liable for your own action & do your own homework if you decide to invest in CCB after reading my CCB article.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-02 00:44 | Report Abuse

The market is not going to reward you for buying low PE in such stocks.
You want to buy the low PE game....go for KYY stocks....all those under covered small stocks and suddenly profits shoot up.
Ccb kind of stocks only interest me when real crisis and very high PE.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-02 00:59 | Report Abuse

KYY stock selection not suitable to me, thanks for advice, Desa.

I prefer goes to those profits up recently, price up but yet still low PE.

I kiasi & kiasu, better let price run first, see if I can collect some later, if can not, ha, try to find next one.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-02 01:03 | Report Abuse

不是你财不入你袋，勉强追或者跟风追，可能会得不偿失，宁愿让大家先跑，看有没有机会跟... :)

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-02 07:42 | Report Abuse

I need to amend for what I said previously, apology:

When Gadang & CCB are improving for past few years and even though the price has increased, the PE is indeed getting lower during the same period of time, then it has become interesting to me, it is where I see it as an opportunity to invest.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-02 16:32 | Report Abuse

This ...I agree . it is quite true that the P/E has dropped throughout FY2012 to FY2015. As a matter of FAC, the cash conversion cycle gas improved during FY 2014 and FY2015. I have performed the computation and will share via Google doc. But then, I am quite worried about the no. If Mercedes Benz that they will sell next year 2016.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-02 16:37 | Report Abuse

At superman99, it seems the are able to pay off the RM90M banker acceptance in FY2014 is mainly due to
- converting the entire tarfe AR into cash payment, very high AR turnover and low AR turnover days,
- not spending much on their inventories since there is a build up in FY2013. Hence, they just run down the inventories in FY2014.

However, the have managed their AR, AP and inventories quite well during FY2015.
I will share more in the Google Docs.

However, now there is a concern about how many mercedes Benz they can sell next year.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-02 19:56 | Report Abuse

Kancs, I truly like this kind of discussions with various supporting facts and I sincerely believe you must have done the study & homeworks before giving your ideas & statements. (I know it judging from the way you are talking... :)

To look or study at CCB, the following are the important areas to consider:
1. Business model and market advantages
2. Management team
3. Cashflow management
4. Stock price (vs historical prices)
5. Current market conditions
6. Future market conditions

I will discuss the above in a seperate article in due course.

Meanwhile, i wish to highlight that no one had predicted Mercedes Benz can do so well in 2015, except may be salesman in their showrooms? XD

I have to admit that I am not good in predicting future market and that's why I never state my assumption for future growth, except for the next Quarter only.

My next year target for the sale of Mercedes Benz is 0-10% growth. Eventhough with that, it should be good for re-rating by market, I believe.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-02 20:27 | Report Abuse

I wonder why Ccb a big no no for all investors pass few yrs, and has anything improved? I avoid at all cost.

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2016-01-02 22:51 | Report Abuse

Don't involve in no ending argument. Let's market determine the stock next week. Uptrend is 100% sure.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 00:41 | Report Abuse

definitely not an expert in car...indeed - i drive around in a beaten down 1996 Proton Wira...hahaha

But from a layman's perspective - the market for Mercedes is definitely niche - very high end sort of market.

For the C-class, it is not fair to compare mercedes with Hyundai, Mazda, Honda (all those korean and japanese brands) - it is an insult to the brand.

Mercedes must be compared against Audi, BMW and Volvo, those continental brands specifically targeted for the high end, exclusive and niche market segment.

I think Mercedes is actually competing against these 3. Then, we have a fair comparison.

The total available market (TAM) is indeed the summation of Mercedes, Audi, Volvo and BMW.

Please exclude volkswagen (it is the people's car (tank) in germany - hahaha).

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 01:00 | Report Abuse

One thing i like about CCB's annual report is that it is
- transparent, and
- easy to comprehend...hahaha

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 01:15 | Report Abuse

I am not car expert as well, I personally believe Mercedes, BMW & Audi are same class, Volvo & Volkswagen are targeting different segments.

Every man is definitely having his own dream cars, mine are Ferrari, Mercedes & BMW, plus Toyota Camry.

For car market, model design is very important, it decide whether you make it or not. Few years back when BWM released its current 5 Series model, I have been keep dreaming of having it one day in future. Mercedes? Forget it, such a old lady model type then.

Same goes to Honda City, the current model is selling hot because the design is brilliant! Toyota Vios is losing its ground.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 01:18 | Report Abuse

klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/88954.jsp

Look back this, results 2012,2013. The profit is so unstable! Is now the mgt team still same? If same what makes you think this situation will not happen again?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 01:20 | Report Abuse

Whatever class it is now, merz still look dull to me, Audi the fav of also youngsters!

Posted by DreamMaster > 2016-01-03 01:54 | Report Abuse

ata naik yuga la hor

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 09:54 | Report Abuse

Ya ya ya, paperplane, good luck to you if you don't buy CCB. Good luck to you also if you quietly buy CCB.

You keep bombing & making enemy around at Mudajaya & Gkent forums, but end up list both as your stock pick for 2016.

It will be great & fantastic if you can enlight us for your disorder actions, so we can learn something we don't have from you.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 10:36 | Report Abuse

Buddies in this forum already here for long time, i trust they will have their own judgement based on your explanation & highlights, thank you, paperplane.

I will write an article to talk about up & down of CCB way back to 2003 in due course,

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-03 10:43 | Report Abuse

I must admit that CCB surprised me last year rising +76%, as I didn't expect the turnaround to be so sudden.

Well, I guess the counter has paid me for my patience during these two years after I slowly bought on the way down after my FIRST purchase @ 2.62 in July 2013.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 10:46 | Report Abuse

This is no different telling me knm is coming back, after situation different? Same crook mgt team, will not have different outside.