Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 11:03 | Report Abuse

Muscle is smart.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 11:04 | Report Abuse

For CCb case, I have to admit I agree with rosmah, is a dead car rebound case, she mentioned this past 2 months. But anyway price recover to reach high and many are happy promoting it now.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-03 11:05 | Report Abuse

muscle is smart if mercedez is on downward trend

if mercedez is seeing more demand ahead, then sifu paperplane is not so smart

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-03 11:07 | Report Abuse

Icon, you talk so many, then why not pick CCB in 2016??? I doubt your intention?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-03 11:27 | Report Abuse

sifu why so angry ?

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 15:07 | Report Abuse

Hi guys,
I just wanna share my findings for Cycle and Carriage Bintang Bhd. Please feel free to disagree with me.

What is CCB’s sustainable competitive advantage over its closest rival, Hap Seng Star?
• Personally, I don’t think the competition for CCB comes from Audi, BMW, Volvo and Volkswagen but rather losing the market share to HapSeng. This is because Mercedes nailed the design and this is evidenced by the good sales achieved in FY14/15.
• To recap, CCB is a 49% shareholder in Mercedes Benz Malaysia S/B. In addition to the guaranteed annual dividend from Mercedes Benz, CCB is entitled to draw down on the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from CCB.
• I suspect this facility is not made available to HapSeng Star as this sort of transaction is not considered arm’s length.
• After digging through Hap Seng Stars: CCB’s sales outperformed HapSeng exponentially from FY13 to 3QFY15. The only year that CCB lose out to HapSeng is on FY12. Please note both companies used the Dec as the year end.

CCB (sales revenue $’000):
3Q 2015: 1,192,398 (+28% more than HapSeng)
2014: 922,463 (+25.8% more than HapSeng)
2013: 644,976 (+6.5% more than HapSeng)
2012: 656,192 (-16.2% lower than HapSeng)

HapSeng (sales revenue $’000):
3Q 2015: 858,730
2014: 684,030
2013: 603,078
2012: 762,755

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 15:13 | Report Abuse

Hi guys,
I just wanna share my findings for Cycle and Carriage Bintang Bhd. Please feel free to disagree with me.

I am trying to guess what is the FY16EPS and PE? Please refer to the GDoc link below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11o6fG1fe_k9JdFLXhuou-WyXftzmuGTa9mubeCLehe0/edit?usp=sharing

What is the expected net profit p.u. for FY16?
• FY15 is the watershed year not so much because of the higher sales volume but rather a favourable shift in the sales mix to higher margin products. Hence, net profit margin (%) improved to 3.5% (RM3.5K profit per motor vehicle sold for FY15) vs. 1.1% (RM1.1K profit per motor vehicle sold for FY14).
• If you ask me how i derived the RM1.1K / RM3.5K profit per motor vehicle sold, please refer to the GDoc link above. Basically, i just divide net profit over total sales for both FY14 and FY15.

• What this means is that CCB does not need to sell as many cars as the improvement in net profit margin can make up for it. This is important because FY16 is challenging in terms of car sales.
• For prudence, we used RM3K of net profit p.u. for FY16 (a 16% discount to RM3.5K).

How many cars can CCB sell for FY16?
• Mark Raine (VP Sales & Mktg), “I see a good opportunity next year (2016) for us to chart growth in our sales and we are eyeing to beat the record we achieve this year for 2016”. Source: The Star.
• Despite the optimism by Mark Raine, the macroeconomics for FY16 will continue to be tough.
• If we refer to FY14 and FY15, the average sales per month is 851 units.
• For prudence, we use 850 units (kasi satu free).

How much is the EPS for FY16?
• EPS for FY16 = ((850 units x 12 months x net profit of RM3K p.u.) + (dividend: RM11,229K))/ 100745K = $0.42 = round down to $0.40.

How much is the PE ratio for FY16?
• Assuming if we use a PE multiple of 10, hence, fair value should be 10 x $0.40 = RM4.00

Is a P/E of 10 reasonable? I think so because:
• Trailing PE to date = (share price = $3.38)/ (EPS for FY15 = $0.50) = 6.76. We are just 3 more multiples close to PE 10.
• In addition, CCB has a sustainable competitive advantage over its closest rival, HapSeng Star and this justified P/E of 10.

Posted by murali > 2016-01-03 15:20 | Report Abuse

U guys did a good job..

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 15:37 | Report Abuse

I am just thinking about the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from Mercedes. mmm...it seems that CCB can draw down the loan facility to run up the inventories and this is interest free...probably this is a corporate level agreement between Mercedes Daimler AG and Jardine Cycle and Carriage...cool...

Posted by kk123 > 2016-01-03 15:41 | Report Abuse

There is very little upside to this share
Dividend is peanuts also.
To murali- u shld get a life instead of always hanging out in forums !

Posted by murali > 2016-01-03 15:46 | Report Abuse

Just after my social life n now back to my cyber life...my social life costs me money but my cyber life here helps me to make money....

Posted by murali > 2016-01-03 15:50 | Report Abuse

Anyway i like this ccb thread...saw few good guys sharing their hardwork here..

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 15:57 | Report Abuse

Kancs, What a fantastic research works & ratio analysis, very well done!

PE is just one of the most commonly acceptable tools in judging the future share value of a stock. Some use Free cash flow, discounted cash flow, blah blah, many more methods....

Everyone will have his/her own conclusion or judgement, based on experience, technical background or knowledge, state of emotion, etc.

When we say target price should be 4 or 5.5, some already happy enough to sell at this price. Like Gadang, our dear friend had already warned us Gadang was very bad company and he even cursed when price was RM1.40 something.

It is not a question of right or wrong, as long as you are comfortable or happy with it, then stick to it. If don't, then move one. No harm done because you are responsible for your own life, no one else.

I always remind myself, no one will care about you when you are having bad time in life and no one will give you money when you need money, except your parents, Banks (provided you have spare credit facility) Or may be Ah Long???

So invest only after doing homework, at least you know your own goal & bottom line.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-03 16:07 | Report Abuse

This forum is fantastic. Everybody puts their heads together to solve a problem

Lovely

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 16:17 | Report Abuse

Icon, still a lot to learn from you, one of the most tough one is ready to be kena shot... :)

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 16:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Kancs, do you mind to share where did you find the following info/details?

CCB is entitled to draw down on the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from MBM (You wrote CCB, I guess it should be MBM).

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 16:55 | Report Abuse

Hi SuperMan99,
This can be found in the Annual Report FY14 on note 19: Trade Payables and Other Liabilities

This is the extract from page 65:
Included in other liabilities above is an interest-free amount payable to Mercedes-Benz Services Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (“MBSM”) of RM41,735,452 pertaining to a revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility. A pre-determined interest-free period has been granted by MBSM. Any unpaid amount over the interest-free period shall be disclosed as borrowings in Note 21, if any.

Subsequently, in Note 21:
There is zero borrowings...hahahahahaha

Posted by Kelvin Teh > 2016-01-03 17:52 | Report Abuse

Thanks for so many infro .

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 18:00 | Report Abuse

Studying cash flow & dividend history records now, not notice that, thank you very much, kancs, great to have you here.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 18:04 | Report Abuse

You are really dig deep to study the report, all in all, you will find out, CCB is actually one of the simplest annual report among the PLC in bursa.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-03 22:15 | Report Abuse

@ superman99, i have just enabled downloads for the gdoc.
Looking forward for your research article. Thanks.

Just click on the link below >>>>> then, go to "File" >>>>> then, Select the option "Download As".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11o6fG1fe_k9JdFLXhuou-WyXftzmuGTa9mubeCLehe0/edit?usp=sharing

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-04 00:31 | Report Abuse

To buy more or to sell now, it is your call. Most importantly, make informed decision.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 31): theedgemarkets.com highlighted six stocks at Bursa Malaysia's afternoon market close today. Three stocks showed positive momentum while three stocks had negative momentum.

Stocks with positive momentum were:
Kim Loong Resources Bhd - up 15 sen at RM3.05
Teck Guan Perdana Bhd – up nine sen at RM1.85
Guan Chong Bhd – up three sen at RM1.33

Stocks with negative momentum were:
Voir Holdings Bhd - up eight sen at 71 sen
Denko Industrial Corp - up 2.5 sen at 40 sen
Cycle & Carriage Bintang – up 12 sen at RM3.38

The list of stocks with momentum is generated using a proprietary mathematical algorithm highlighting stocks with a build-up in trading volume and price. The algorithm differentiates between stocks that exhibit positive (+ve) momentum and negative (-ve) momentum.

This list is not a buy or sell recommendation. It merely tells you which stocks are seeing higher than normal volume and price movements. The share price may move up or down from this point. But the “+ve” (suggesting a rising price trend on volume) and “-ve” (suggesting a falling price trend on volume) indicators should give readers a better idea of what the market is buying and when to sell. Note also that momentum generally only persists for a short period of time.

However, each stock has an accompanying fundamental score and valuation score to help readers evaluate the attractiveness of the stocks, if they want to ride the momentum.

(http://www2.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/kim-loong-teck-guan-guan-chong-voir-denko-cycle-carriage)

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-04 09:16 | Report Abuse

OooooOOOO AhhhHHHHHH...oH yeaAAAAAAA....-->CCB<---

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-04 10:11 | Report Abuse

superman very geng

turbo charge the super CCB

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-04 10:13 | Report Abuse

with superman's super power, Mercedez runs like Ferrari

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-04 10:14 | Report Abuse

best joke of yr, Merz run like Ferrari......

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-04 10:15 | Report Abuse

good morning sifu plane. Later go yum cha

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-04 10:15 | Report Abuse

It's very significant that the overall market is down -1%, but CCB is up +2%. Something is up. Maybe early special dividend this year lol

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-04 10:16 | Report Abuse

Or maybe insiders know another set of stellar results coming end of this month.

Posted by murali > 2016-01-04 10:18 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/2925.jsp

2 years zero div oredi...prior to that used to be well known for one of the good div stocks...I believe the major Spore shareholders should be screwed by their shareholders 996 for the past few years

Posted by master_tan > 2016-01-04 10:19 | Report Abuse

we can forecast the ccb result by looking of Oct, Nov car sales data. It is available in google...

Posted by murali > 2016-01-04 10:20 | Report Abuse

Now lots of money are in Inventory form, once this is being transformed into Cash we would expect some div again...soonest in 2016....

Posted by murali > 2016-01-04 10:25 | Report Abuse

All these foreign shareholders tend to pay good div one, need to bring the money home mah...such as Dlady, Nestle, Digi, BAT etc...as long as they can make profit and strong cash flow

Posted by geary > 2016-01-04 11:03 | Report Abuse

U got to do some dirty tricks for Merz to beat a Ferrari. This one should be selling at least 10 times earnings!

Posted by tradeview > 2016-01-04 11:47 | Report Abuse

I agree with Superman99, Murali and Icon8888. Sometimes logic and commen sense will get undermine but always maintain conviction. I did a simple revisit. There is nothing fancy except to add value to a superb analysis by Superman99. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/89088.jsp

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-04 13:40 | Report Abuse

Just finish my analysis on past years' dividend records & the movement of share prices and balance sheet items in the quarterly reports before, on & after the announcement of special dividends.

My 2 cents guess, special dividends is possible in 2016. (Don't throw me stone if I am not right)

Will complete the article by this week.

Posted by murali > 2016-01-04 13:43 | Report Abuse

I like the people here....

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-04 14:17 | Report Abuse

Thank you, tradeview, please keep writing & sharing your findings, it is great to read.

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-04 14:40 | Report Abuse

My bold prediction - The 127.5 lots queueing @ 3.50 will be cleared today.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-04 15:10 | Report Abuse

Things are blewing now...

The Edge - Stock With Momentum: Cycle & Carriage Bintang
(http://www2.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/stock-momentum-cycle-carriage-bintang-1)

Posted by kancs3118 > 2016-01-04 21:35 | Report Abuse

hehehe...turbulent spotted in the horizon - china share market closed on Monday - 1st day of trading of 2016 with 7% drop in the shanghai composite index...what will tomorrow hold? a big discount for CCB????

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-04 22:53 | Report Abuse

Ha, kancs, I am waiting that to be happened...

Posted by domperrier > 2016-01-05 11:01 | Report Abuse

Hahah...Welcome back!!! Even a 400+ point drop on the Dow could not keep you DOWn for long!

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2016-01-05 13:04 | Report Abuse

大马马赛地不涨价!

马来西亚马赛地汽车宣布，在新的一年里(2016年)，该公司所有车款将不会涨价。

马来西亚马赛地主席兼首席执行员克劳斯维尼发文告说，该公司将会持续监控所有的因素，并用最具有竞争力的价格，提供最好的产品和服务。

他也宣布，马来西亚马赛地推出本地组装的混合动力车款，包括S400L和E300BlueTec Hybrid车型，已经获得延长减免进口税务。

他说，马来西亚马赛地也将会继续符合国家的政策，引进更多节能汽车，而本地生产的混合动力轿车将会加该公司和本地汽车商的密切合作，无论是产品和技术知识方面的合作。

《地产王》 全马最畅销中文房地产杂志
最新一期经已推出！ 大马各大书局均有出售！

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2016-01-05 13:04 | Report Abuse

Another good news for CCB !

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-05 13:50 | Report Abuse

That's fantastic news, thank you for sharing, Steve.

Posted by eimajz > 2016-01-05 14:18 | Report Abuse

Wow so it means we with tax exemption people buy more right?/?

Posted by Henry HO > 2016-01-05 14:35 | Report Abuse

To SuperMan 99 & Icon8888...

wait for Mercedes Benz Malaysia Sdn Bhd to announce their 4Q2015 financial results sometime around 8th Jan 2016...
If results is good....CCB will also be good right!!!!

If you look around you, there are so many brand new Merz on the road...in KL & others..

CCB holds 49% of Mercedes Benz Malaysia Sdn Bhd, & the other 51% hold by Diamler Benz AG...

Every RM1 profit Mercedes Benz Malaysia Sdn Bhd, 49cts goes to CCB..Good????

If you take another view, Thinking without the BOX, not out of the box...

Which is better, Buying the brand "Mercedes Benz" for RM3.45 or buying RM300K MB C200 car is better???

Posted by tradeview > 2016-01-05 14:39 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/mercedes-not-raising-prices-now

This is indeed a good news and the news I have been most looking forward apart from the next QR. There are currently close to 1200 buyers for S400 hybrid on the waitlist for 2016 delivery and pending the confirmation of the government's approval for the extension of the tax exemption. These buyers have already paid their deposit. With this positive development, this further strengthens the case for CCB to deliver good results the S Class alone would contribute significantly to the bottom line.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-05 16:36 | Report Abuse

See the different in prices (without insurance):

First launch in Sept 2014:
C200 - RM285,888
C250 - RM314,888

C200及C250的上路价（不含保险）分别为28万5888令吉和31万4888令吉
(http://www.nanyang.com/node/649814)

Now price list for 2016:
C200 - RM248,888
C250 - RM287,888

(http://paultan.org/2016/01/04/mercedes-benz-malaysia-maintains-prices-in-2016-but-s-400h-gets-rm15k-hike-despite-hybrid-tax-exemptions/)