1) RM108m is definitely a positive surprise for me. personally, I still think inventory gains/losses do affect their results and last quarter should be a loss (if I make inventory value adj, the margin trend is in line with the crack spread data). so despite inventory losses, the effect of better crack spread is greater than I expected. my profit target of RM300m seems very achievable now
2) Sales volume 8.3m is a record quarter similar to 4Q16
3) Company's commercial biz seems to be doing well (no much info provided) and manage to sell more high margin products
4) Net debt now only RM45m, down from RM136m in 4Q16. Net cash is just a matter of time
5) Free cashflow very strong at RM90m. again my RM300m free cashflow target seems very achievable. if the company wants to expand, such strong free cashflow would easily sustain it or allow it to get sufficient borrowings
bottom line, if crude oil and refined product price stay relatively stable, i.e. steady crack spread at this level, petron's future is shining bright
From both Heng yuan and Petdag quarter reports, both have mentioned decreased in sales volume. But PetronM's volume increase, looks like shell and Petronas have losing their market share to Petron.
Yes Jay. If they expand their capacity, with more station now, that will be double happiness. Meantime, look at prestar, the shining steel coming to double soon!
From their results, RM400 mil profit for 2017 is very likely. Remember Q1 of 2017 is traditional weak season for Petronm but this Q1'17 they still can deliver an increase revenue and close to peak season profit of Q4'16. If can deliver 400 mil, then whole year EPS can reach 160 sen++
Don't forget one thing! Important!!!! Top30% holding 80% plus, meaning very little share out there!
Now with super good result, similarly hengyuan, fund manager see value investing in both. They will buy up these two. Among two, I guess petronm will be preferable one as their debts much much lower!
Now! Hold tight as many fund managers que to buy! It will easily double when they buy!
Borrowings reducing, mostly is current liability meaning it will clear within a year and then PetronM will have minimal FInance Cost = Savings of around RM6 mil every quarter.
Should be a good long term investment
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pang72
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Posted by pang72 > 2017-05-25 18:31 | Report Abuse
Congrats to all Petron and Hengyuan shareholders