God bless those CD holders.. even price of underlying being push up but market maker of CD dunt want to push it. All CD holder wait ur money become a paperless when come to maturity...haha.... Thanks for choosing Ong Saja Kaya 's product.. all wait kena he sell until lu beh tahan...
Petron hasnt break the high of the day yet.. maybe i m not wrong at all for my rm7 tp.
But for CD... haha... uncle want throw ur money into sea u r welcome to buy..ong trader most welcome to sell it to u...and uncle want throw money into sea u also welcome to buy ong ystd new issue hengyuan cf..
Act market got many issuer and market maker.. investor can choose other issuer rather than ong punya.. some good issuer is still there which u can make money through leveraging..
Just voicing my opinion. CD warrant would only expire next year, by that time PETRON would have announce the Q3 result which could be another good quarter. CD might go through another roller coaster.
" I understand that the crack spread is still relatively stronger qoq in April and May to date. If this sustain throughout the 2Q17, we will probably see another RM100m profit in 2Q17, paving way for Petronm to achieve net cash position and record profit in 2017. Initially I was looking at RM300m profit in 2017, but now it seems to be easily beaten if Petronm can achieve RM200-230m profit in 1H17.
In conclusion, I think there is still plenty of upside from current share price, even though the stock had a good rally YTD (almost 100%). At 5x PE (assuming RM400m profit, +63% yoy), I personally think this stock is too cheap to sell. "
PETRONM is kicking out weak players......don't worry.....should be otw to hit RM10 very soon....collecting more CC and CD today.....they will be meletup big big soooooooon
The 2 non listed co named, Petron Fuel International (formerly ExxonMobil Malaysia) & Petron Oil (M) (formerly ExxonMobil Borneo). If you read its annual report, you will realize that 6 out of 11 terminals (for crude oil and refinery product storage before distribute to petrol stations) that Petron Malaysia owns and operates are owned by the sister co, which I believe it is parked under Petron Fuel International. Out of the 6, 3 terminals are Sabah based.
Given that Petrol Oil was formerly known as ExxonMobil Borneo, we can draw to a conclusion that petrol stations in Sabah is owned by sister co.
Terminals in Penang, Port Dickson, KLIA, and Klang Valley Distribution Terminal are owned by listed co. This implies that the high volume stations in Klang Valley are mainly owned by listed co. So you tell me, how many % of its petrol station sales derived from Klang Valley and Penang? I would think the sales proportion is higher than the proportion of the numbers of petrol stations the listed co own.
Comments by Sumato88 : Blog: Petronm: A Snapshot Speaks for Thousands Words Mar 13, 2017 12:36 AM | Report Abuse
Hi, Probability
1) I got the refinery daily throughput from both of the annual report 2015, the throughput shall be higher in 2016 (haven't reveal yet) but I don't think the throughput will spike by 30% yoy.
2) the valuation for Shell's refinery should be higher due to its complexity. And that's also one of the reason why some refineries (including Petron) cannot run at maximum capacity as the low complexity will have high output of low margin products, so to avoid flooding the market with low margin products that will result in losses, some refineries just can't run at max. You can read more about refineries here http://www.galpenergia.com/EN/agalpenergia/Os-nossos-negocios/Refinacao-Distribuicao/ARL/Refinacao/Paginas/Didatico-
3) I beg to differ on same EBITDA profit per litre due to different volume/economic or scales, although I agree there is room for improvement for Petronm when it's volume catch up with the peers.
4) upside can be 140% or more if more investors understand the biz and Petronm deliver higher profit which I think it will although I do think the quarterly profit might be volatile due to the refinery margin. But if we look at the big picture, as long as it reports higher profit yoy and full year or cumulative profit is higher yoy, we shouldn't be too concern on lower profit qoq due to changes in refinery margin, refinery shut down for maintenance and others. The key jewel is its marketing biz which is very valuable in my view. This biz is growing in a saturated market, hence it is gaining market share and better economic of scales.
Hope that helps. Pls forgive me if I don't answer all the questions, will probably answer what I think is more important.
personally I do not expect an excellent results for this coming 2nd Qtr, due to stock loss + average refinery margin, but a reasonable good results should be achievable. I m looking forward for the coming 3rd Qtr results, if the oil price, Forex rate & refinery margin can sustain at the current level until end of September, then a record earning is possible.
Consolidated Sales volume reached 52.9 million barrels (MMB), slightly higher than previous year’s 52.6 MMB due to the growth in Malaysian volume. In the Philippines, the focus to sell more profitable products was exhibited by higher gasoline, petrochemicals, kero/jet and lubes sales, tempered by the reduction in diesel and IFO. Meanwhile, for Malaysian operations, the incremental volume primarily came from gasoline, kero/jet and diesel sales contributed by Industrial and Retail trades.
Why today heng yuan and petron dropped a lot ? The result announcement also delayed.
Just estimate simple calculation of this qtr result 4.1 billion x 1/3 (60 days shut down and initial set up) = 1.35 billion +- excluding factor of purchase refined oil from others.
Petronm = 2.6 b - 1.35 b = 1.25 b x 0.086 = 107.5 m x 0.85 = 91.38 b
EPS = 34 cents for this qtr ....
Using 34 x 4 x PE 8 = 10.9 or using PE 9 = 12.25.
Hope Petron can climb back as brought the boat ticket liao.
If looked at Petronm 2015 shut down net income is down about 65 to 70 percent. So estimate 2/3 income affected.
Just nonsense sharing since lot of expert here, just joined the boat recently. Hope i not commit suicide.
4.1 billion peso is petron corp 1st qtr result assume 2 months affected so i used 1/3. This qtr 2.6 billion peso so less out petron philipine 1.35 billion will get 1.25 billion peso for petron malaysia.
0.086 is peso convert to MYR. Then less out 15 percent sister co. portion.
I did not write peso as i thought u know my computation.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Intergritytrader
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Posted by Intergritytrader > 2017-08-22 11:32 | Report Abuse
God bless those CD holders.. even price of underlying being push up but market maker of CD dunt want to push it. All CD holder wait ur money become a paperless when come to maturity...haha....
Thanks for choosing Ong Saja Kaya 's product.. all wait kena he sell until lu beh tahan...