tkp2, I dun like ppl quarrel in a forum. I rather hope ppl could be more contributive by sharing value informations on TA or FA here. Morning bought warrant 103 lots at 41 cents, loss few hundreds. =(
yes, now 0.335 present good price, but like tkp2 said, don't know if there will be lower... looking at it, yes mother seems like still shaky... maybe nervous ahead of the weekly price ceiling announcement?
Midnight tonight you will know if it will be up tomorrow or down.
You need to see the Fuel price reduction relative to the 'week average MOPS value'. To maintain the same Margin, they can easily afford to reduce by 20 cents for Petrol.
If they didnt....then you should know what to do tomorrow.
For the financial results ended Sep 2015, Petronm has racked up Gross Profit and Net Profit of RM 456mio and RM 204mio which translate into a commendable margin of 7.3% and 3.3% respectively. This margin position is in line with PetDag that stands at 8.2% and 3.6% concurrently and if we were to strip out the borrowings cost, Petronm would have even outperformed PetDag on the adjusted net margin of 3.85% vs 3.71% that of PetDag. In fact, we can observe that Petronm has achieved immense improvement in its operational efficiency as evidenced from its improving margin. There is no doubt that the improvement in margin is aided by stronger demand for oil products through lower crude oil price, but we suspect that the improvement in margin also coincides with the completion of strategic projects in 2014 which have helped to streamline Petronm operational efficiency. To put that into perspective, Petronm margin has never come close to match those of PetDag in those years (2011 - 2012) that refiners also enjoy strong margin as shown in the comparison above.
In terms of improvement in operational efficiency, what we can observe from its financial metrics is shown in the comparison of margin over the years. The margin in Petronm has been lagging behind PetDag for the most part of the years and we assert this scenario can be attributed to the disparity between efficiency level and lower contribution from the commercial segment (which tends to fetch more stable margin) for Petronm. Indeed, we believe the stronger margin as seen in Petronm also contributed by its burgeoning commercial segment as its commercial segment grew 32% in 2014 underpinned by 11% growth in LPG and 100% growth in aviation fuels. In another instance, it is true that Petronm has recorded losses in 2 out of the past 5 years, but if we were to exclude any borrowings cost from its financial metrics, we can assert that the negative earnings are likely to be reversed. Likewise, we believe strong balance sheet and low level of debts is much needed to instil some level of stability into the business model of refiners. In fact, Petronm has utilized the opportunity of reduced working capital requirement along with strong cash flow generation capability (RM 336mio cash flow generated from operations ) to pare down its debts through repaying long-term borrowings of RM 441mio and this has helped to generate interest cost savings of RM 16.5mio for the 9 months ended 2015. This should be viewed as favourable as we believe a low gearing / debts free business model is imperative for refiners to deliver healthy margin and thus profits to shareholders going forward.
Likewise, all these factors augur well for Petronm as we are more likely to see it continue racking solid profit q-o-q for the next 2 years. Refiners might even make a windfall profit in the event the crude oil market trend upward gradually as refiners will be able to realize higher earnings through the positive differential of selling price and input cost. There hasn’t been any case in corporate history that refiners will suffer in stockholdings losses when oil climb from low point to high point. We are not implying that the refining industry is without any challenges going forward. Rather, we assert that the upside potential for the industry clearly outweighs any downside risk in view of sustained weakness in crude oil price and imbalance between gasoline and diesel production in Europe which will lend support to crack spreads in Asia market. In the short run, we felt there is even some upside potential towards earnings for local refiners in the event of a short-run spike in oil price. This is attributed from the facts that refiners will be able to sell their inventory at a relatively higher price than their input cost of which further boosting their margin.
On a comparative basis, PetDag is expected to earn 0.9 EPS for the full year 2015 while Petronm is likely to net in 1.00 EPS. Whereas in terms of valuation, PetDag is valued at 25x PE while Petronm only saw to be worth 7x PE. This led us began to ponder why there is such a stark difference in terms of valuation assigned to both companies as they operate in the same industry? If there is a notion of premium valuation assigned to the market leader or Petronas-linked company, we think this is partly justified but it is definitely not until such a huge disparity. We felt there is a strong case for re-rating of Petronm even after run-up in its stock price for the past few months and we assigned a target price of RM 18 (based on 18x PE, 28% discounted to PetDag 25x PE) which represents an upside potential of 168%. Even though the local refining margin will be continued undermined by a global capacity overhang, the undemanding valuation and stable business model of Petronm convinced us that there is a strong catalyst for this stock.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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Posted by suregain > 2017-03-29 15:37 | Report Abuse
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