Posted by steveooikp > 2014-09-30 12:48 | Report Abuse

very boring with this counter..... wasting bullets to park here for so long...

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-30 13:27 | Report Abuse

Again it really depends on how much time you have and how critical thing will be right? If u r a trader I think it makes perfect sense not to touch L&G. If you r an investor, it will be very key to look at least 3 steps ahead. Why 3 and not 2 ? If you r looking 2 steps ahead, you may not factor the periodic changes. Example two steps ahead, you would factor GST however you may not look towards a gloomy year ahead and how the market may react. A lot of u would beg to differ because you think we cannot foretell the future.
I said many times that I m also not a clairvoyant however I factor in some buffer to play my cards. Example when I told you to play L&G, I bought at 53cents and LA at 40cents knowing that the price will be at least above 65cents and my target was 75cents. Now that it is at 63.5cand with the dividend, my cost is at 51cents with a buffer of > 12cents however I have a large volume in my arsenal. Though it did not touch 70cents, my buffer is sufficient

The next play as an investor is really the multi year generator knowing that GST will kick in and knowing that property prices are still inclining. The only way out is property outside central KV and restart again with an infrastructure and transportation. I wouldn't want to bet on a good year for 2015 however the financial Instituitions are very weak at this point. If foreign investment by our FI to Europe or any part of the region outside of Malaysia would also mean outflow before the money comes back in. Either way we haven been very successful apart from property outside Malaysia. We lost plenty on forex and now we have to gear for a 2015 full of surprises.

So bet right and bet on fundamental for 2015

Posted by lohboonsen > 2014-09-30 13:47 | Report Abuse

A few good counters like Tambun and Dutaland has flown.. only left G&L...

Posted by Lonaldo Lo > 2014-09-30 20:04 | Report Abuse

The reason why this counter will not move, 1st , no ppl want( no other substantial holder that mean no ppl fighting with them to grab the share .eg counter layhong, QL is the 2nd major shareholer, privatized with 40% than offer price...2nd, the major shareholder are in comfortable zone(32.5%) not exceed 33%, agm also mention will not privatized. That mean big fish stomach are full. Again, if really for privatise(in fact, more benefit to majorshareholder), at least is 6mths after they converted the LA..this just my thinking, no intention to influnce buy r sell toward investor

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-30 22:22 | Report Abuse

Why would Mayland want a MGO? They are expanding and need market funds. The money is use to expand and buy more land. If they really wanted a GO they will payout and delay their expansion. They can do do it either 2 ways
1. trigger a technical GO Called MGO thru 33%. In do so, they will offer low and ensure NO Buyin and wait for the price to explode therafter.
Or
2. Keep low and wait for balance LA conversion to dilute the mother to 28% Mayland holding while they build their Landbank . As I mention earlier, I believe they will go for a private placement for Lembah Beringgin coming up next as well as bonus issue to complement the PP as the GDV of 100B is certainly sizable.

They will work more on 2 because 1 is for low level amateur play. Have a thought

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-30 22:31 | Report Abuse

Now having work on no 2 is very key. Mayland is a management company. This means managing is their value. Imagine this, if they sell L&G now versus after securing the approval and PP and bonus issue going for LB, how much difference the value of the company would be. Remembering that the 100B GDV is a township and likely to complement those property developer heavy at Iskandar. After all L&G has been building their worth and loyalty from the Dividen and then the market capital.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-30 23:05 | Report Abuse

The bonus is very likely to happen as for the multi year generator is also definite. The 100b is likely to be the whole township. For the GDv of 25b for EnO we are talking about 15 to 20 years a multi year generator. For L&G a multi year is definitely above 5 years revenue build up. Either way a township is the most cost effective development because they can focus their assets at a location and in this case also the cost of development will be relative lower

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-30 23:37 | Report Abuse

We are very sure 2015 property will be more expensive with GST. This is simply because exempt rated tax stops at developers but how do we know? We should not measure property price for 2015 by looking at the price after GST in April 2015 onwards however we should look at the inclination of price that is already happening.
If all taxes fall on the developer and they cannot claim back base on exxept rated position, the price will definitely be past on to buyers. Imagine if these are the main factors of property prices
1. Landbank cost
2. Material cost
3. Taxes

The key hedging can only be achieve with Landbank as material cost are general across inflation and gst and will definitely be past on to buyers. Hence if the prices of property will not go down, it will also be at the mercy of bank interest rate and market economy.
So still think you have a choice?

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 00:02 | Report Abuse

Now if bank interest soars in 2015, partnership to develop landbanks maybe key. Hence PP will b key. If that fail, bonus issue will be next. Reason is bonus issue is within their control. However if the Landbank is substantial, both will be required and may even have multiple PP.
Now getting that out of the way, what do you think their final objective will be...ie Mayland.

Mayland is not in this business while those in this business with the wrong Landbank ie All premium Landbank, will suffer and be looking at cheaper Landbank with high value to sustain their existence.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 00:12 | Report Abuse

Why PP and bonus issue rather than loan stocks? All are loan instruments however loan stock is long in period ie 5 years in general while PP creates synergistical partnership to add value while bonus adds participation and growth with investors.

They have done the first which is loan stock followed by growth with investor using dividend. Hence now they will use the other two instruments which are deemed faster in churning the expansion wheel compared to the earlier 2

Posted by wiki123 > 2014-10-01 09:36 | Report Abuse

Hi Saturn, thanks for the elaborate explanation... for private placement, in your opinion, would you think the price will be determined after it got pushed up above 70 cents? or at 60+ cents at these levels before the significant resistance at 70 cents? i think for the longer term, L&G is a good stock to keep...

Posted by ccc888 > 2014-10-01 09:59 | Report Abuse

Thanks Saturn! L&G3174 Come On!

Posted by Nitezzz > 2014-10-01 10:36 | Report Abuse

L&G heavy

Posted by Xiao Mi > 2014-10-01 10:42 | Report Abuse

keep dropping..is it time to buy in?

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 11:31 | Report Abuse

While some of you may or may not agree with me, but fact is we should buy a stock with strong support rather than short term catalyst if you are an investor. A strong support is one where the financial results have been delivered and the management ability is proven together with reliability. Their actions are also dependable.
I have been in counters like Zelan for IPP, KNM for sizable project and investment due to these short term catalyst which did not sustain. I have been in CPO, GOld, Silver, OnG, forex etc however I made less money or none in some cases because these are really trading stocks.
Most of my money I made in my earlier years came from IT and Telco stocks. So for those in that era would know where I am coming from. We have move away from that now and IT era is very short term. Look at what happen to Kodak, legacy printing, human dependent mechanical production line especially those in mattresses business ....and now look what happen to Garmin, Tom Tom in the GPS business with Waze coming fr behind and overtaking them. What I am saying is, those business have also become a trading game and no longer suitable for investors.

So what should we do? If you are in the investment game, look at the FA and Management then the sector. I would anytime buy a Jamuluddin ( Axiata) counter wherever he goes and similarly Idris Jala or Liew KS or ....each in their own sector. In short, in these times of difficulty, where loans are hard to come by, tech companies can easily be taken over, and every other businesses are partnering and sleeping with each other, a tangible business in consumer is far safer, one where is less reliant on changes in technology or physically sustainable and able to appreciate

Posted by Jien Han > 2014-10-01 15:31 | Report Abuse

is it a picture of people sitting on the fence a lot? or just so happen people need cash? or just plain sentiment?

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-01 17:35 | Report Abuse

Saturn... you write so much... but I can't see the support.. I only can see the price drop...

Posted by YOLOOOO > 2014-10-01 18:33 | Report Abuse

drop more buy more

Posted by tksw > 2014-10-01 18:38 | Report Abuse

Steveooikp, price drop good lar。It means people are throwing money to you.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 19:42 | Report Abuse

The fact that I m writing when the stock is on down trend is already evident. Secondly the messages are not for you. It's food for thought and designated for specific.

Posted by optimusx8888 > 2014-10-01 19:45 | Report Abuse

Saturn is a special talent highly sought after by fbi n kgb as a human shield. His skin super thick more thicker than rhino.
everytime made wrong prediction but everyday talk.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 19:51 | Report Abuse

Thank you for giving me the air time. I like Oct 8

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 19:54 | Report Abuse

Funnily talking about thick skin like rhino, I don't get flag most of the time and still come back. Hmmmmm that must be thicker than rhino skin. Dammmm KGB and FBI must look into this material for shield.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 19:59 | Report Abuse

We do I understand that Hong Kong is feverish with strikes and possibly riot soon. Wonder why problem follow some ppl. Hahaha

Posted by Wave > 2014-10-01 20:57 | Report Abuse

Hi SaturnReturns, you really have the helicopter view on this L&G. Your write-up on L&G really did enlighten me, thousand thanks for this. I have a question as following and hope you can further enlighten me. What will be the fair share price to buy in after keep low and wait for balance LA conversion to dilute the mother to 28% Mayland holding while they build their Landbank?

Posted by chloe_ts > 2014-10-01 22:08 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow will have a rebound, I hope so.. : )

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 22:24 | Report Abuse

The share price before the ex-div was 66 cents, so technically the price after correction is 64cents. However there is dilution from the LA conversion with mother base 598M and LA of 598M added to 1196M. So technically if PE was at 4.X before, double the share base will create a dilution of half the earning. So if share Price is as is, and earning is half, the PE will be 8.x. (Ie double)
I have not checked the latest EPS however it should not matter much as the diff is minimal. The EPS was 0.156, so half should be 0.078
Assuming price is 0.62 as per closing, PE is 7.94.
Most like to push to PE to 10 as optimum and the price should be 78cents. Note PE is a constituition of repayment period for most investors and is optimum at 10. If you read my earlier writing I have said 75cents and son will be independent. That assumption is base on this exact calculation however with a notch lower on PE at 9

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-01 22:26 | Report Abuse

The last line should read PE 9 and 9.5

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-02 00:06 | Report Abuse

With the increase of petrol price by 20cents, will solidify the price inclination of property further and inflation in general. This is because raw materials require transportation to production line and subsequently transported to the final product. Each of the complete product will be at least 2 levels to 3. This means prices will factor in the least levels.
For those who did not realise, the 20cents increase in Ron95 against the old price of rm2.10 is approx 10%. Remember when sugar price went up 20cents a kilo, and the Mamak and Nasi Kandar restaurants were reported to have increase each cup of drinks by 10 to 20cents? And similarly when flour price went up, roti canal price went up 10cents.....
now coming back to sugar price going up 20cents a kilo, each cup of Teh tarik for example uses 30gram at least of sugar /cup (min) and approx 100grams every 3cups. Hence 1kg of sugar can serve at least 30cups of Teh tarik. So an increase of 20cents a kilo can essential earn RM6 for the coffee shop (60cents every 3 cups times 10 = 30cups = rm6) This happens because the govt ministry could not control the retailers or did not think of the repercussion with the increase then.

So putting this into 2 basic, base on petrol increase
1. Assuming 2 tier increase ie raw material to sub product to final product (eg sand supplier to brick supplier to developer) if they each increase 10% due to higher transportation, we maybe hit by 20% at final product minimum (I say minimum because developer add ons are not factored in ie petrol used for marketing, sales.....etc) thought in reality some are sunken cost just like the example of sugar
2. Assuming petrol increase are compounded because the final produce example a hse is not just base on bricks but also cement, sand, steel, tiles, roofing......etc and some may have import cost not factor in which include exchange rate

As you can see with inflation, it's general across and not just in one sector and the repercussion maybe compounded or buffer created to hedge or ease some possible exchange losses.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-02 00:16 | Report Abuse

So what can you expect? I believe wholesale will prevail. Even then the prices for each volume of wholesales will have very significant difference. Example if you buy 1000kg of flour vs 2000kg of flour per delivery the price may get wide or exponential decrease to encourage higher order to ensure cut down in the number of trips however in doing this, there is always a saturation point which can be considered sunken cost and anything more may require storage cost and etc.
So to the govt, it's only 20cents but 20cents per kilo here, and 20cents per litre there, will soon have a great effect on our already inflated market

Posted by Wave > 2014-10-02 07:49 | Report Abuse

Many thanks to you Saturn for your kindness to share. Cheers.

Posted by aladin > 2014-10-02 10:15 | Report Abuse

TQVM to Saturn

Posted by chloe_ts > 2014-10-02 10:19 | Report Abuse

Saturn u will hold long term?

Posted by Jien Han > 2014-10-02 10:44 | Report Abuse

is it time to add more?

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 11:13 | Report Abuse

what is the new NTA and PER for L&G?

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 11:13 | Report Abuse

everyday drop 0.5 to 1 sen... very sien

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 11:24 | Report Abuse

PER 9 to 9.5 very good mah... 78 sen... very good mah... why 61 sen now? from 66.5 less 3 sen div... shd be 63.5... now 61 ?

Posted by Jien Han > 2014-10-02 11:26 | Report Abuse

from klse screener, new nta is 0.46 and pe is 6.62

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-10-02 13:14 | Report Abuse

I have asked everyone what 1cent In this counter means to them. Base on all the answers, 1cent is relative to everybody. If you hold 100k units 1cent is rm1k right....so if you hold say 3M units, you can treat RM1k as you pay day per day. If anything drop below that 1cents and RM1k per day, you should bail out and wait again. Same example for those who can make rm100 a day and so on. But question is would you sell?

I have been in situation many moons ago where rm100 meant a lot to me and I find that I make money being a poor investor faster in short term than long then because I don't have the holding power and large capital to pour in. Soon rm100 became rm 200 and it went on and on until today. So always think of storage cost and in this case, the money you keep in the investment whether it can work in your best interest. Once you have the sufficient funds with some extras, this is when you can begin to play the characteristics of shares. Example here, it does not take a genius to figure out that this counter is slow however with good FA. Here the good FA constitutes financial growth over the last 5 years, very low gearing, good & prudent Managment, some great pipeline and best of all my usual multi year generator.

Can you think of anything more that this counter can do? More landbanks? bonus? DIVIDEN?.....well they have said it all in their plans and DIVIDEN was also executed. If you can think of anything more pls add on because I cant. My only concern here is whether Low Gay Teck is the man for the job with everything else being peach and rosy. I know he is THE MAN to deliver numbers and projects to Bill! But is he DE MAN to market the company to next height? We know most products are 70% hype and 30% fact. Take for example Apple 6 plus where Apple created hype in the social media only to fall short of expectation in IOS 8 with the worst bug experience. This however may mean very minute problem for the fantastic platform they have created over the year and ICloud to me a a very binding service for Apple user. So in May ways the bug may be big problem and bend gate maybe infamous marketing but for IPhone users, this may not be as big a proble maybe only a temporary hassle compared to new iPhone users who may start comparing the problems because it has been highlighted.
I hold both a Samsung and an IPhone and I find even with all the problems in IPhone recently, the use experience still top Samsung which threw in every other feature to attract different gen users.

Now coming back to L&G, the above analogy would apply similar because like Apple in the tech sector, L&G too have shown an amazing growth over the last few years. They have also build a reputation to deliver. And finally like Apple they too will be building a binding factor with the multi years generator and are cash rich to perform consolidation and buying landbanks when the market is weak and loans are difficult to comeby. By virtue of their ability to deliver projects which in turn is translated to turnover at Topline and profit, they will continue to give confidence to potential investors like private placement partner who believe and are willing to invest in a proven company with low debts ( very low debts and high reserve)

All the above is good provided they don't screw up and they don't play the market and focus on their delivery and marketing

Posted by Shaun Wong > 2014-10-02 14:43 | Report Abuse

How much did they pay you? Just kidding :)

Posted by YOLOOOO > 2014-10-02 15:28 | Report Abuse

panic sell

Posted by Tigerbeer > 2014-10-02 15:46 | Report Abuse

Yoloooo stollo holding?

Posted by Tigerbeer > 2014-10-02 15:46 | Report Abuse

Still**

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 15:47 | Report Abuse

sell lah... I bot at 63.5... did not sellat 66.... later I got 3 sen dividend..... later should have sold at 64... so 64 + 3 = 67 (can make 3.5 sen)... did not sell again... today I sold at 61 .... so 61 + 3 = 64.... only can cover water money... now 60 alamak...

Sell lah... conman counter

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 15:50 | Report Abuse

wtf counter... sometimes cannot see Saturn msg.... can influence my decision.

Posted by Alex Chan > 2014-10-02 15:54 | Report Abuse

too late to sell....oversold...rebound coming

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 15:54 | Report Abuse

rebound? NTA -- 45 sen... will down to 50 sen...

Posted by ahson > 2014-10-02 16:25 | Report Abuse

like diarrhea.. T.T

Posted by Shaun Wong > 2014-10-02 17:07 | Report Abuse

The power of Petronas.

Posted by steveooikp > 2014-10-02 17:20 | Report Abuse

hahaha... I did not lose anything.. lose some interest... switch to other counters...