>( BNF trader losses ) Philip But full disclosure, from my info so far ECRL will not involve any local companies for the major portions, most likely gkent will not get any contract from CCCC on this. this from the gkent technical manager that I am close with.
GKENT will go uptrend on Monday. Tun mahathir will announce the detail of new ecrl agreement at press conference on Monday. The new contract agreement is more relevant to local company. All the best to all of you.
No ecrl related counter flying high today, , due to the official detail of new ecrl agreements announcement will only make by tun mahathir on this coming Monday. So gkent and ecrl related counter will go uptrend on this coming Monday.
-A+A George Kent (Malaysia) Bhd (March 21, RM4.29) Maintain buy with a target price (TP) of RM5.66: We attended George Kent (Malaysia) Bhd’s (GKent) fourth quarter of financial year 2018 (4QFY18) results briefing yesterday, which was represented by Bernie Ooi (executive director), Phoon Hee Yau (general manager for strategy) and Ong Kum Weng (finance manager). To recap, core earnings for FY18 were above expectations at RM138 million (+47% year-on-year), forming 136% of our full-year forecast.
The 4QFY18 engineering profit before tax (PBT) margin (excluding associates and joint-venture [JV] profits) was exceptionally high at 47.1%, which management explained was due to significant recognition of variation order (VO) works on the light rail transit (LRT) extension. There is a remaining RM193 million worth of works comprising the Bukit Jalil siding, depot equipment, roofing and platform. As such, we opine that the strong engineering margin will persist into FY19.
Apart from the bus depot, all major LRT Line 3 (LRT3) packages have been awarded and work progress is estimated at 3%. The contribution from LRT3 (share of JV profits) was RM17 million for FY18, and this is expected to accelerate strongly for FY19.
[X] CLOSE Sponsored Content volume_off pause fullscreen The Gamuda-MMC-GKent JV and China Communications Construction Co Ltd are the finalists for mass rapid transit Line 3 (MRT3) (RM45 billion). Although management did not reveal its stake in the JV, it has been agreed that GKent will undertake the system works potentially amounting to RM6 billion to RM8 billion. Securing this would double its order book, which currently stands at RM5.5 billion.
We remain optimistic about the JV winning the turnkey role given its pure local set-up and the lower rate of financing offered.
Last month, a consortium was formed between GKent and four European names (Siemens, Alstom, Italian State Railways and PORR) to bid for the high-speed rail (HSR) asset company role. Management expects bidding competition from Chinese, Japanese and Korean consortiums. The tender will close at end-June.
Other potential jobs include Singapore MRT track works (S$150 million or RM446.25 million), a hospital (RM500 million), East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) systems (RM1 billion) and water-related jobs.
Any possible delays in LRT3 would be a key risk. Our forecasts are unchanged as the briefing yielded no surprises.
GKent is a key proxy for the booming rail project roll-outs in Malaysia. We believe that it is in a polar position to participate in jobs such as MRT3 and HSR. It also boasts a net cash position of 82 sen per share (19% of its market capitalisation). Our sum-of-parts-based TP of RM5.66 implies a price-earnings ratio (excluding cash) of 19 times and 17 times respectively for FY19 and FY20. — Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, March 21
Other potential jobs include Singapore MRT track works (S$150 million or RM446.25 million), a hospital (RM500 million), East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) systems (RM1 billion) and water-related jobs.
This comes on the back of news that it was joining forces with Siemens, Alstom, Italian State Railways (ISR) and PORR towards a joint proposal for the EPC and O&M portion of the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail project.
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George Kent had announced in October 2017 that they were teaming up for the HSR AssetsCo role, but with the inclusion of the other three companies, the research firm believes the consortium is in an even stronger position for the role.
"We are positive on this recent news as getting the AssetsCo role will further elevate GKent’s prominence in the rail system’s scene.
"Track record wise, GKent is undertaking the LRT extension systems, MRT2 track works and LRT3 PDP role. GKent’s huge net cash pile of RM384m will come in handy for the AssetsCo bid."
Hong Leong Investment Research believes George Kent is in a prime position to participate in upcoming mega rail projects such as the ECRL and HSR
Bursalord, did you really just put HLIB research from last year to fit your agenda? That is very misleading and unethical.
Here is this year reasearch from HLIB, (27 March 2019):
Although LRT3 project is expected to commence in 2HCY19, we understand that meaningful profit contribution to MRCB-GKent JV will only kick in from FY21 onwards. GKent is currently bidding for a few water infrastructure projects in Kedah and Johor with contract size of RM100-200m for each contract and 2 hospital projects with unspecified contract value. Maintain forecast and HOLD but with higher TP of RM1.10.
GKent Held An Investor’s Briefing Yesterday With the Following Key Takeaways:
4Q19 results. The exceptionally high gross profit margin in 4Q19 results (c.61%) was mainly due to recognition of VOs from LRT2 extension and management guides that this will not continue going forward. The amount of other expenses increased significantly (QoQ: +238%, YoY: +165%) mainly due to tendering costs incurred for the HSR and Singapore MRT projects.
LRT3. JV contributions slipped into losses of RM6m due to minimal revenue recognition for the LRT3 (MRCB-GKent JV) and reversal of profits due to downwards adjustment in contract value of the job. Although the project is expected to commence in 2HCY19, we understand that meaningful profit contribution will only kick in from FY21 onwards. MRCB-GKent JV is actively engaging with the work package contractors and encouraging the bigger construction players to negotiate with smaller subcontractors to help out on the latter’s work packages in order to mitigate construction risk and shorten completion time of the project.
Potential construction jobs. Focus on potential jobs would be on regional rail related opportunities and GKent is studying on possibilities to participate in Singapore’s rail related job bidding. We opine that GKent would face an uphill battle as construction bidding is very competitive in Singapore. For domestic front, a near term opportunity for GKent would be Klang Valley Double Track 2 (RM5bn) and we understand that the company is looking for a JV partner to participate in the tender. GKent is also bidding for a few water infrastructure projects in Kedah and Johor with contract size of RM100-200m for each contract and 2 hospital projects with unspecified contract value.
Smart meters. GKent’s automated meter reading solution (a.k.a. smart meters) is undergoing pilot testing in several states with commercialisation set for CY19. We opine that the sales of smart meters will benefit from the government’s effort to curb non-revenue water (NRW) given their ability to provide customers with real-time access to water consumption data for billing and monitoring consumption patterns as well as detecting leakages in the water supply system.
Outlook. GKent is targeting to grow profit contribution from metering division to 50% (from 20%) in the short term and to 75% in the longer term given the slowdown in domestic construction industry. The company is looking for potential M&A opportunities and also may form strategic alliances to expand geographical markets and diversify products range.
Forecast. Maintained as the briefing yielded no major surprises.
Maintain HOLD, TP: RM1.10. Despite unchanged earnings, we raise our SOP based TP to RM1.10 (from RM0.97) after updating its latest net cash position. Our SOP valuation for GKent is based on (i) NPV (WACC: 12%) for its engineering division with nil orderbook replenishment, (ii) 8x P/E for metering assuming no YoY growth and (iii) net cash per share. While valuations are undemanding, sustainability of its current earnings level is an issue post completion of LRT3 given the scale back in rail jobs.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 27 March 2019
Target price definitely higher from the current price! With the positive news and positive market sentiment for steel industry. Gkent counter has bright prospects in the long run in term of growing perspective. Apparently looking forward to roar and rise high in the air for many.. And many... Just buy!
US market Friday close up 269 points. Monday Asian market should open higher. Based on current situation, if u ask Hong Leong investment bank research to project Gkent TP, I am sure the TP is a lot higher compare to previously. March is history, we are taking about future.
GKENT will not be in the running simply because he is Najib's crony. Giving contract to GKENT is the same as goiving Najib money. Speculation all the time and I don't see GKENT in the long run.
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is likely to trade at the current level of around 4.11 against the US dollar next week, supported by news on the revival of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project.
Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the current resistance level of the ringgit was at 4.11 versus the greenback, whereby the next resistance level was at about 4.15.
“I suppose the ringgit will linger around the current resistance level of 4.11, as news on the ECRL should provide some impetus to the currency,” he told Bernama.
Current value is the fair value even without any rail projects. LRT3 start 2nd half of this year. So the fair value end of the year should be RM1.50. if officially announce got any future rail projects like ECRL, HSR or Penang LRT, then the TP should be above RM3.00. So can still buy and collect for long term.
You buy now the downside risk is still low. Trailing PE not even reach 10 yet. But the upside potential is high with all the great news in railway sector
Daim: Have no fear, ECRL will have stops at designated stations in Terengganu Whatsapp Facebook Twitter
The people of Terengganu will get a chance to travel on the high speed train on the East Coast Railway Link (ECRL) tracks and they may even get tickets subsidised by the operators. (NSTP/FARIZUL HAFIZ AWANG)
By Rosli Zakaria April 14, 2019 @ 6:10pm ROSLI ZAKARIA KUALA TERENGGANU: The people of Terengganu will get a chance to travel on the high speed train on the East Coast Railway Link (ECRL) tracks and they may even get tickets subsidised by the operators.
Council of Eminent Persons chairman Tun Daim Zainuddin said it was only logical for the high speed train to make several stops in Terengganu as it would be constructed on the tracks originally proposed in the earlier agreement with China.
“Fear not. The people of Terengganu will have the chance to ride the train. The railway will pass through several stations in the state. The tickets, without subsidies, will cost RM500 each (in order) to break even but the government is most likely to make it affordable.
“Otherwise, traveling by air will be cheaper. The ECRL is built for the rakyat and as such the tickets will be subsidised,” he said during the Bicara Darul Iman, the first series of discourse programmes for invited guests and senior government officers with the country’s influential figures.
One of the objectives of the programme was to build a first class mind set among leaders, senior civil servants, captains of industries in both the public and private sectors through exposure towards scenarios related to current issues.
Earlier, when addressing the audience, Daim said he was in Beijing to sign a new contract for the construction of the ECRL.
“I know many in the East Coast, including Terengganu, have been keen for this project to continue and the news that the ECRL will proceed was met with relief and joy in the East Coast.
“One of the most significant concessions that we won from the Chinese side is that local participation in the construction of the ECRL will be increased to 50 per cent of all works from the previous 30 per cent of only civil works.
“Add to that, the side industries such as homestays, food, transport and retail will surely flourish with the resumption of work on the ECRL, and we have a situation where entrepreneurs and businesses, both big and small, will have a much bigger pie to sink their teeth into,” he said.
He added that the opportunities that arise would be a good test for Bumiputera entrepreneurs in Terengganu and the whole of the East Coast, to prove their capability of meeting demand and competition.
“Hence, I would like to call on all those present here now and the people of Terengganu to start thinking outside the box if they intend to be part of this economic future. They should have intellectual discourses with the local authorities and state government to compile a list of initiatives which will bring about positive change and prosperity to the state and its people.
“The state and its people should have long term plans to facilitate this new development with elements which can build up the ecosystem along the railway route. Start thinking of new products, new services that Terengganu can offer not only to the rest of Malaysia, but consequently to the rest of the world.
“Ensure that all this is done with honesty, integrity, diligence and trustworthiness. Think long-term instead of thinking about immediate profits. Do not sacrifice quality for profit, do not cut corners to make your work easier. Do not cheat, do not shortchange. Take pride in your product, take pride in your service.
“The future is in your own hands. Ask yourself what you have contributed to the Bumiputera economic agenda and what role you can play? Don’t keep asking the government what it is offering in the Bumiputera economy.”
One of the most significant concessions that we won from the Chinese side is that local participation in the construction of the ECRL will be increased to 50 per cent of all works from the previous 30 per cent of only civil works.
One of the most significant concessions that we won from the Chinese side is that local participation in the construction of the ECRL will be increased to 50 per cent of all works from the previous 30 per cent of only civil works.
Pm tun mahathir press conference at 10am, the statement will out soon. One of the most significant concessions that we won from the Chinese side is that local participation in the construction of the ECRL will be increased to 50 per cent of all works from the previous 30 per cent of only civil works.
“Some investors may sell on news, so we expect share prices to consolidate for a while because the actual award of contracts may take some time to negotiate,”
“It is likely the [construction stock] rally can be sustained, underpinned by developments pertaining to other suspended projects such as the HSR and MRT3. The HSR is bound by the bilateral agreement, and MRT3 is needed because it is a circle line, and it eases transit between multiple MRT lines,” he said, declining to be named.
“Because there are other catalysts like the Penang LRT (light rail transit) and Pan Island Link 1, both projects’ combined contract value is about RM18.6 billion. Although they are slated to start in June next year, some of their work packages will be tendered out by year-end,” he said.
"The new alignment will leverage on the existing KLIA Express Rail Link (ERL) as well as the future MRT2 SSP Line with an interchange in Putrajaya Sentral.
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cheoky
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Posted by cheoky > 2019-04-12 19:19 | Report Abuse
All all all in... Will carry out DRS, follow philip fisher