Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 08:02 | Report Abuse

From Taiping to Bukit Raja via WCE, the length is 248km, out of which only 165 km is tolled, 83km is toll free. If via NSE, it is 272 km and it is tolled for the whole length.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 09:22 | Report Abuse

y2k

This is rights issue, not bonus.
You seems know nothing of investing in Bursa.
Why not you go to your remisier for advice.

Posted by ys2k > 2019-10-16 10:04 | Report Abuse

hi uptrending, this is the first time i deal with right issue, that's why i am confused about the process.

any suggestion will be helpful, thanks

Posted by ys2k > 2019-10-16 10:44 | Report Abuse

i have make some correction as below, assuming i owned 1000 unit WCEHB before 23 Oct, i will be getting 2000 RCPS which will be listed and available for trading as WCEHB-PR on date 25 Oct

Assuming the 23-Oct price for WCEHB is 0.40,
24-Oct - price for WCEHB will be adjusted to 0.29
25 Oct- additional 2000 WCEHB-PR goes into my account.

Then i can decide
Option 1 - sell the 2000 WCEHB-PR on the open market with price 0.24 or lower to get back the cash
Option 2 - 2000 x RM0.28 = to convert all 2000 units RCPS to mother share
Option 3 - Surrender 2000 units RCPS to get 1500 unit of mother share.

If i do not perform any option above before 04 Nov 2019, the RCPS will basically voided?

This is the correct understanding?

Many thanks.

Posted by jaynetan > 2019-10-16 10:54 | Report Abuse

都不对

Posted by Jonathan Choi > 2019-10-16 10:59 | Report Abuse

Uptrending,

That is 2017 bro, that is 1 year after they did the 4th lane widening.

NSE northern traffic is 30% less than southern.

Heavy vehicles is a bad thing actually, most highways would rather they dont travel on their roads as it results in much higher maintenance cost.

you should also note WCE toll rate is actually higher than NSE.

Posted by Jonathan Choi > 2019-10-16 11:05 | Report Abuse

What i can tell you, is that projecting just 1.5% growth for northern highways, is already very very optimistic.

In any event, i've said too much, i can't comment any further.

Posted by ys2k > 2019-10-16 11:10 | Report Abuse

jaynetan,

Sorry, if i owned 1000 unit
Number of RCPS entitled is 2000 unit, hence 2000 x 0.28=RM560 (additonal money i need to put in for subscribe?)

RM400 + (2000x0.28) = RM960
RM960/3000 = RM0.32 cost per unit?

What will be the market price after the ex-date? thanks.

Posted by steady31 > 2019-10-16 11:13 | Report Abuse

uptrending,my calculation on WCE value is around yours which is 28m pkm for 233km or about 6.6B .so less government loan 1.9 the net value attributable to shareholders about 4.7B.the price now is a steal

Posted by jaynetan > 2019-10-16 11:19 | Report Abuse

ys2k
the rcps you need to subscribe

Posted by Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 > 2019-10-16 11:55 | Report Abuse

Ys2k
Best to consult your remiser
If , you are using margin account , u shud sign an authorisation letter in order to facilitate the subscription.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 13:21 | Report Abuse

Plus annual report 2010

Average Daily Traffic Volume
2010....... .2009... ...2008....... ..2007........ 2006
1.142M...1.076M...1.029M....1.007M......0.938M

======================================

Fast forward to 2019,
Daily traffic volume on NSE on normal days is 1.7M, and 1.9M on festive seasons...

Compound annual traffic growth is close to 5%

Posted by Jonathan Choi > 2019-10-16 13:24 | Report Abuse

https://www.marc.com.my/index.php/marc-rating-announcements/1022-marc-affirms-aaais-rating-on-plus-rm23-35-billion-sukuk-musharakah-programme-revises-outlook-to-stable-20190325

Your news is too old.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 14:00 | Report Abuse

I read the above post. However, it did not specifically mention NSE.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 14:10 | Report Abuse

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756415306024

This is another old post.
year 2008 - 2013, growth rate for the KL-IPOH route was 9.5% compared to 1.3% and 2.2%, KL - Karak and KL - Seremban respectively


QUOTE
With reference to statistics of one direction traffic flow for 2013, the average daily traffic for KL-Karak were 147.4 thousands, 206.1 thousands for KL-Seremban, and 253.2 thousands for KL-Ipoh. The growth rates for the five-year period of 2008–2013 were estimated at 1.3 percent, 2.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively.
UNQUOTE

Posted by Mar Yung Chern > 2019-10-16 14:45 | Report Abuse

for current lastest price = .4, after exdate price adjust to = (0.28+0.28+0.4)/3=0.32
is it correct?

Posted by steady31 > 2019-10-16 15:02 | Report Abuse

Jonathan,since you have more uptodate information and an expert on bond matters,what is your valuation of WCE .Care to share a bit?

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 15:49 | Report Abuse

Yes, Jon
Please share your latest findings and all the facts.
I hope to read it today as I would be travelling after today for 2 weeks.
Thanks.

Posted by Jonathan Choi > 2019-10-16 18:00 | Report Abuse

Due to professionalism, i can't. I can only share with you what is public knowledge.

I can only ask you to go and check the MARC rating reports, and potentially buy the latest one.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-16 20:43 | Report Abuse

Jon,
Thanks.
So cut the long story short, do you think that at the current price, is wce share undervalued or overvalued?

Posted by Mar Yung Chern > 2019-10-16 21:31 | Report Abuse

can anyone share how to calculate the price after exdate?

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2019-10-17 01:32 | Report Abuse

0.40 very very cheap!

Posted by alone > 2019-10-17 11:28 | Report Abuse

How to calculate, anyone know?

Posted by Capital Choivo > 2019-10-17 12:36 | Report Abuse

Well, i can say i think it will only be saved if govt decide to buy it over.

I can tell you that profitable highways in malaysia are only in the central region.

These are highways that make a profit.

Kesas, CKE, Besraya, NPE, Litrak, AKLEH, Guthrie, MEX, Grand Sepadu, PLUS (portions of it).

Everyone else is losing money like crazy.

This is the full list of highway in malaysia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_expressways_and_highways_in_Malaysia


Good luck.

Posted by Capital Choivo > 2019-10-17 12:37 | Report Abuse

Even duke is technically still losing money, though their growth is strong enough, that it should turn consistently green in 2-3 years.

Posted by Capital Choivo > 2019-10-17 12:40 | Report Abuse

On average, highways need to lose money for about 10 years before it turns profitable (assuming their growth assumptions is correct).

So you'd want to keep this in mind.

People usually take the money out of the highway via,

1) constructing it
2) maintaining it
3) preferred shares/bonds (like PLUS)

Posted by tiptop168 > 2019-10-17 13:38 | Report Abuse

Good analysis...

Posted by tiptop168 > 2019-10-17 13:40 | Report Abuse

Conclusion is the beneficiary company should be IJM.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-10-17 19:27 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital Well, i can say i think it will only be saved if govt decide to buy it over.

I can tell you that profitable highways in malaysia are only in the central region.

These are highways that make a profit.

Kesas, CKE, Besraya, NPE, Litrak, AKLEH, Guthrie, MEX, Grand Sepadu, PLUS (portions of it).

Everyone else is losing money like crazy.

This is the full list of highway in malaysia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_expressways_and_highways_in_Mala...


Good luck.
17/10/2019 12:36 PM


Wah John Boy why a sudden 180 degree U -turn on WCE in less than 2 years time?

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-10-17 19:30 | Report Abuse

3/10/2018 11:31 PM

Choivo Capital RainT,

I can't tell you without risking my job. That should tell you enough.

I'm not super confident. But with important data im privy to (pcukm for each section, and revenue for each toll pcukm etc), and using very very conservative estimates. Like seriously damn conservative, you know how kiam i am.

It still looks like a decent investment. If you use normal estimates, it becomes bloody amazing at this price.

I queued to increase my stake by 30% today. Will be doing the right issue. Having said that, its only 3% or so of my portfolio on current market value. If i do the right issue, will probably push it up to like 5%.

Why did i not buy more? They are other bloody amazing investments now in KLSE, that you can buy using conservative estimates. But wce, if you have a 10 year perspective, have very very interesting kickers.
04/10/2018 10:46 AM

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-10-18 11:09 | Report Abuse

Experience and time.

This time i actually studied the entire toll industry, both local and foreign.

I'm thinking about writing an update to my WCE post, but i wonder how much i can actually disclose as a lot of the specifics i now know are highly confidential and relates directly to my day job.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-10-18 11:10 | Report Abuse

No need lah..

I will still buy wce later...

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-10-18 11:11 | Report Abuse

Good for u to find a job

Posted by leefongyong > 2019-10-19 08:45 | Report Abuse

uptrending,

did you attend the recent AGM or EGM?
did u listen the CFO said no more cash call ? i need your help to clarify on this. TQ.
as what i read from the circular dated 25 july 2019 (page 15) saying that the project cost has increased to RM6.69b, hence the funding of the project thru equity portion is RM1.95b, amount need to inject in WCESB by WCEHB is RM1.56b. (based on 80% equity interest)

total cash injected into WCESB amounted to RM721m as at now, they need another RM886m to pump into the company, the coming right issue is only able to raise RM320m, means they still lack of RM566m, even though they said this will be funded by the RCPS under option 1 and exercises of warrants, but obviously this is not enough. (circular page 23)

Do u think there is another cash call in next 2-3 years? or even worse, private placement?

Posted by LuckyG > 2019-10-19 09:34 | Report Abuse

24c x 2bil is how many also can't count???? Do not buy shares pls. You only make donations

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-19 11:38 | Report Abuse

Leefongyong,
Yes. I attended the last EGM/AGM.
The question you mentioned was raised. The CFO answered that the company can raise more debt to fund the project should the need arise as after the rights issue, the equity portion is enough to fulfill the 20% equity.

I posted earlier :

"No more rights lah..

Actually the company only needs to fork out 20% equity for their portion. The total project cost is rm6.69 Billion, 20% equity is rm1. 338B.
WCEHB's 80% portion would be rm1. 07B

So far WCEHB had already injected
rm673. 73 millions (out of which is a rm150m term loan which would be repaid after the current rights issue). RM320 millions from this rights issue (after repayment of the rm150m term loan with rm4 million interest) will be injected as equity. The proceeds from the conversion of the 2 billion rcps in 2 years would bring in another rm80 million.

So, the total equity injected would have been RM1. 073 billion then.

The company, wcesb, could raise some rm500m-rm600m to fill up the debt portion to 80% which would be RM5. 35B. The current total financing obtained is RM4. 74B. There would be some savings from the land acquisition payments for cases now in the court.

So, no more requirement to raise fund after this RI. This was brought out in the recent AGM and the CFO did say so."

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-19 11:45 | Report Abuse

Toll collections at Section 8,9,10 and Section 4 & 5, are due to commence anytime soon, I believe. This would help the cash flow.

Posted by leefongyong > 2019-10-19 12:03 | Report Abuse

Uptrending,
Thanks for reply. Yes, I have read your earlier post. Just to confirm as the figure you mentioned is different from what I read in the circular.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-19 17:00 | Report Abuse

Total project cost : rm 6.69B
80% debt financing : rm 5. 35 B
(currently only RM4. 74B)
20% equity required to be injected by wcesb:
rm1. 34B
Equity required to be injected by wcehb, 80% of rm1. 34B, is rm1. 07B
The company can still raise fund for the project, if needed, through debt, instead of equity, after the RI.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-19 17:04 | Report Abuse

The company mentioned above is wcesb, 20% held by IJM and 80% by wcehb.

Posted by leefongyong > 2019-10-19 19:27 | Report Abuse

Uptrending, I have reread the circular and I am quite sure that my figure is correct. Pls recheck circular dated 25 July 2019 page 14 and 15. The amount needed to be injected into WCESB based on 80% by WCEHB is 1.56b. As the AGM/EGM is dated 29 Aug 2019 (later than the circular), so please correct me if you have got your figure from the AGM/EGM or elsewhere. As RM 1.07b and RM 1.56b is a huge difference. TQ.

Posted by uptrending > 2019-10-20 01:12 | Report Abuse

80% debt is obviously bigger than 20% equity.
The 20% equity for wcehb is already in place after the RI. The CFO did mention in the EGM /AGM that the company can raise additional debt with the addition in equity after the rights issue.

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2019-10-20 01:30 | Report Abuse

Is WCE worth buying ??

Posted by LuckyG > 2019-10-21 12:30 | Report Abuse

Bought. Going to subscribe. All the best

Posted by minigiant > 2019-10-22 10:24 | Report Abuse

Will the mother share price be adjusted to lower price on 24-October, after the RCPS is listed?

Posted by steady31 > 2019-10-22 10:57 | Report Abuse

the price will remain low until the last day for payment of RCPS.the major shareholders prefer the low price to discourage subscription by the retail holders so their underwriting can net as much as possible of the cheap shares

Posted by steady31 > 2019-10-22 11:13 | Report Abuse

retailers should not sell at such low prices .instead they should subscribe for the RCPS to reduce the cost of their shareholding.The highway project's concession is for 55 years and so far all major concessions are highly profitable over time because the operating cost is low

Posted by LuckyG > 2019-10-22 14:51 | Report Abuse

operator pressing hard at 41c lol

Posted by Mar Yung Chern > 2019-10-22 17:58 | Report Abuse

what is the adjustment price after exdate?

Posted by steady31 > 2019-10-23 09:40 | Report Abuse

the ex RCPS price of 0.35 is based on conversion px 0.32 and cum px 0.41.so holders who had not sold will see first stage gain already bcos RCPS subsription cost is 0.24..WCE ex all price should see steady improvement after this exercise in mid Nov