Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-23 22:11 | Report Abuse

My GTC order to buy BAT at 10.00 was filled. Chart wise looks negative biased - looks like there may be more downside to come. Will not chase, will let price comes to me.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-23 23:52 | Report Abuse

Also, today, they just credited 16 sen dividend into my account. Always nice to receive dividends ... my average cost keeps getting lower and lower and is now at 9.67, notwitstanding that in the past I did buy at 10.8 some time ago. It helps to let go when price is high and buy back when price is low, and collect dividends along the way. With GTC orders, I don't even monitor the market at all, every night, I just quickly do a 5 second glance at the order status.

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-08-24 15:38 | Report Abuse

It slid to 9 something was during MCO period... Don't think it will drop that low again

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-08-25 13:36 | Report Abuse

I'll wait for cheap short short sell later only buy

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-08-25 18:23 | Report Abuse

Strong support at Rm10 for BAT in my view

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 19:50 | Report Abuse

Price must be correlated with Earnings and Dividends.
Last year, BAT EPS in Q1/2/3/4 = 18.3/25.7/26.4/21.6. This year, BAT EPS in Q1/2 = 14.1/16.6. This is poor performance this year.
Last year, BAT DPS = 17/25/25/21. Note DPS is lower than EPS, as expected. High payout ratio too (96%).
This year, BAT DPS = 13/16. Note DPS lower than EPS, as expected. High payout ratio too (94.4%).
So, for BAT, the real question is - what will Q3 and Q4 EPS be? Q1+Q2 EPS was only 69% of Last Year. Hopefully, Q3+Q4 will be higher than 69% of Last Year.

Note that if this reduction is a permanent one, then, BAT price will be 69% of Last Year's Prices. So, if Last Year's prices ranges from 10 to 14, then, be ready to expect BAT prices in 2023 ranging from say 7 to 11 say. Market is giving BAT the benefit of the doubt now because whilst Q1+Q2 is 69%, nevertheless, if Q3 QR does not pick up, then, BAT will linger around 10. It needs a good QR i.e. the bias, if it's a neutral QR, will probably see lower prices ahead.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 19:56 | Report Abuse

My prediction, is if Q3 EPS is near 25 sen (unlikely, but let say IF), then, there will probably be some relief rally.
However, if Q3 EPS is say 18 sen (say 70% of 25sen), then, we'll see the strong support at RM10 be broken, in which case, it could go as low as RM8 depending on how much market panics. If RM10 support gets broken, don't chase the falling knife, but wait until it finds bottom.

Basically, you don't want to gamble on earnings announcements - we will know around end October.

I also believe market likes to alternate more often than not. If around 1 month prior to announcement (by end Sep) it shows a rally, then, quite likely after QR, it will fall below RM10 and vice versa. This is just probabilities - say 60% chance of happening i.e. not strong enough to bet big on this hypothesis.

But going into earnings in Q3, any strengths will see a sell on my part for that part acquired at RM10. Selling at RM11 is no shame, earning 10% gross in less than 2-3 months.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-08-27 20:17 | Report Abuse

Agreed. Just wait to decide on buying later lah

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 20:30 | Report Abuse

My guess is for FYE2023, BAT EPS will drop to around 70 sen +/- 3 sen. If true, it will be its worst, worst, worst ever earnings for an extremely long time. Just in 2015, BAT EPS was 312 sen. It will only be a quarter of 2015 EPS. However, in 2015, price range from 53 to 67, averaging at say 60. A quarter is 15, probably ranging from 12-18. However, the downtrend is not yet over since last decade/s. So, market marks it down further if it thinks this downtrend can get worse. Right now, 10 does give a buffer, but if next 2 quarterly earnings confirms how bad it is, then, market will mark it down further again.

The bias is towards more downside in the coming 12 months. Don't keep averaging down bigger and bigger and bigger in unlimited fashion when this happens. At least, sell a third to a half during the rallies at a profit. A smaller win is much more preferable than HUGE losses when we are wrong.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 20:51 | Report Abuse

Having mentioned all the risks and downside, I am a little bit more optimistic with BAT after this announcement - https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2023/08/03/bats-disposable-vape-enters-malaysian-market/#:~:text=By%20CodeBlue%20%7C%203%20August%202023,in%20Klang%20Valley%20and%20Penang..

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 20:52 | Report Abuse

"
"Tobacco giant BAT has launched its Vuse disposable vape with up to 1,500 puffs in Malaysia, priced at RM22, after the government delisted liquid nicotine. Vuse is sold nationwide on Shopee and Lazada, and in convenience stores in Klang Valley and Penang."

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-27 21:11 | Report Abuse

My quick check on Shopee and Lazada indicates that the take-up is still extremely low. Unlikely to move the revenue needle for Q3/2023 QR. More likely to incur fixed costs to be reported in Q3/2023. So, odds are BAT will need to show the money to the market in its QR that it is selling really well. Else, this stock price is less likely to go up so soon. Weekly chart shows long term downtrend still intact.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-08-27 21:21 | Report Abuse

Agreed. Just wait to decide on buying later lah

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-08-28 14:27 | Report Abuse

If really fall to RM9.50 and below, then it's a good accumulation opportunity in my view..

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-08-28 18:59 | Report Abuse

Wah so many of you in bed sleeping, in love with BAT.. Haha..
Averaging down, predicting share prices etc.
Goodee luckee..
What price should I enter 😅😆

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-08-28 22:19 | Report Abuse

BAT C19 and C22 structured warrants are maturing on 30/8/23 i..e this week. Their exercise prices are 10.58 and 12.80. Safe to say, both will expire out of the money. The only winner is the issuers who originally issued 100 million and 150 million shares. All buyers will very likely lose 100%, basically transferring their gambling bets to the structured warrant issuers. Congratulations issuers! You win again!

This is why I don't recommend retailers to buy structured warrants - odds are very high that retailers will lose. Only occasionally they may win big but that's the "hook" - designed to reel in retailers.

I only play mother shares. Collect dividends. Buy and sell and make profits.

Looks like there's strong invisible interest to make sure BAT prices doesn't go up by 30/8.

The next structured warrant to expire will be C23 expiring 28/11/23, with high Exercise Price of 12.50. You can bet, 100% of retailers who bought the C23 will also lose 100% of their monies. Again.

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-08-30 11:06 | Report Abuse

Better buy mother share. Can enjoy good dividend and potential capital appreciation as well

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-09-04 20:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.chinapress.com.my/20230904/%e8%b5%b730%e4%bb%99%e8%87%b31%e4%bb%a4%e5%90%89-bat%e9%a6%99%e7%83%9f%e6%82%84%e6%82%84%e6%b6%a8%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81/

Good news for BAT, let me monitor back on this share again lol

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-04 20:21 | Report Abuse

Monitor first lah. Now cheap can only get cheaper

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-04 20:21 | Report Abuse

(Pas sin tax is coming - rokok ITU haram)

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-11 15:21 | Report Abuse

Average down a bit today.. below RM10 is very cheap~

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2023-09-12 15:31 | Report Abuse

Time to revisit BAT

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2023-09-12 15:32 | Report Abuse

C27 a good buy, expiring 08/24 (11 months) huge potential….

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-12 17:06 | Report Abuse

Waah, can buy BAT-- man 😅 arh now...
Dunno future good or not...
Can go down to 7 sumting 😊 !?

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-12 22:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks Williamh,
You mean if next QTR good, then buy..!?
But if good insiders will start buying and too late for me lor

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-13 10:30 | Report Abuse

Good info in there

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/679585

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-13 13:36 | Report Abuse

I’ve decided to invest in MBB today instead of BAT because the latter stock has been tarnished by government’s policy and illicit cig trades.
I will compare the stock performance of MBB and BAT diligently to ensure that my monies will get the best ROI under the category of low or minimal risk.
Tesla (listed in USA Nasdaq) is my #1 and only stock for long term investment under epic high growth risk category.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-13 16:03 | Report Abuse

Thanks Brandon Ooi, I will stay out of BAT.......

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-13 20:36 | Report Abuse

MBB is a lot safer than BAT. BAT is still declining. Market doesn’t like BAT strategy to switch its cig clients to Vape due to further expected loss from cash cow segment into a new segment. Expect earnings to continue to decline. Those betting on warrants is hoping for a miracle price spike by expiry date which is not in the best interest of the warrant issuers. Warrant issuers always win in the long term.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-13 20:46 | Report Abuse

Don't go in first. Cheap only gets cheaper

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-14 10:30 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67

I definitely agree with the point that you’ve raised and has certainly shatter my confidence in this company’s strategy.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-14 10:30 | Report Abuse

G.g

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-14 14:55 | Report Abuse

Ya. Chart movement is not look good...

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-14 16:23 | Report Abuse

Good luck with bat

Posted by durian_jatuh > 2023-09-14 16:24 | Report Abuse

bought 10 lot@9.80

Posted by freeze789 > 2023-09-14 17:09 | Report Abuse

just grab 20 lots

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-14 17:35 | Report Abuse

My amateurish technical analysis charting skill for BAT is showing stronk support at rm9.26.
I might consider to get a tiny position in BAT when its stock price is a steal just for the sake of not losing out.

Posted by hhhiii123 > 2023-09-14 20:21 | Report Abuse

wa, drop so much, drop more plzzz

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-14 22:06 | Report Abuse

gg

Posted by ivanlau > 2023-09-14 23:16 | Report Abuse

If based on forward eps 85 x 10 pe , the fair value will be rm 8.50 , today closing 9.75, good luck guys........

Posted by RTSH7182 > 2023-09-15 08:40 | Report Abuse

ANY POSSIBILITIES THAT BAT (UK) MIGHT TAKE BAT (M) PRIVATE , IF THE PRICE KEEP ON FALLING? ANY OPINION?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-15 08:42 | Report Abuse

Pushing up the price is an important job to be done by sharks in this counter for everybody to earn profits; and everybody was sure that some sharks would do it.

Any shark could have done it, but Nobody did it.

Somebody got angry about that, because it was everybody's job. Everybody thought anybody could do it, but nobody realized that everybody wouldn't do it.

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2023-09-15 09:44 | Report Abuse

If the current government doesn’t implement something like Khalid as minister time n put some effort to reduce illicit cigarette, the performance of next 2 quarters should be better than latest quarter… Below RM10.00 should be good time to average down cost ( cost per share )…. Buying BAT for sure is higher risk than Maybank but for her high dividend yield n possible turnaround n raised to RM11 n above … Local research houses r always behind time to give reasonable target prices or they have purpose to give extra high or extra low target prices to influence retail investors…:)

Posted by invest8912 > 2023-09-15 09:46 | Report Abuse

@MOBAjobg today triple witching day, you wish to collect at RM9.2x may come true. Just be patient and wait until pre-close.

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-15 10:00 | Report Abuse

Govt doesn't care about tobacco business. Gone case gg

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-15 10:35 | Report Abuse

div 9.1% better than EPF, start monitor you,, may enter below 9.50

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-15 11:03 | Report Abuse

I’ve just bought 1,000 shares at rm9.68 of BAT and will dollar cost average (DCA) with every nasty price dip.
Divested from BAT completely on Dec 22, 2022 with mediocre gains and was lucky to grab Tesla or TSLA stock on Jan 3, 2023 at a bargain price.

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-15 14:52 | Report Abuse

Do some averaging down today...

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-15 15:12 | Report Abuse

may go down further, slowly buy.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-15 15:26 | Report Abuse

Tnang, what is bottom for BAT according to your charts. ?