Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-21 11:48 | Report Abuse

Why did I just buy 3,000 shares of BAT at rm9.34 ?! It’s insanity!

Posted by ZenSen > 2023-09-21 14:40 | Report Abuse

Can buy now ka?

Posted by Donator > 2023-09-21 14:57 | Report Abuse

想成功先发疯，不顾一切向钱冲，买买买

Posted by Havefun > 2023-09-21 14:58 | Report Abuse

Any bad news?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-21 15:05 | Report Abuse

Shariah compliant Sintax next

Posted by Donator > 2023-09-21 15:22 | Report Abuse

Got any bad rumour?

Posted by teknikal > 2023-09-21 16:10 | Report Abuse

Downtrend with price below MA20, MA50 and MA200

Posted by invest8912 > 2023-09-21 16:12 | Report Abuse

Good luck to those water fish who go long.
不见棺材不流泪

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-21 16:26 | Report Abuse

Heading to RM9 and possibly below. If coming QR don't improve by much then may fall even lower to RM8..

Posted by invest8912 > 2023-09-21 16:31 | Report Abuse

Was hoping to buy at this level last Friday and sell on rebound to water fish. Luckily it didn't happen, else I will become one of the water fish.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-21 17:03 | Report Abuse

Its stock price has crushed the death cross mark as indicated by Moving Average (200 & 50) since May 2023 and RSI remains deep rooted in oversold territory means that the BAT bears have massive balls to assert control over the lack of bulls, in this case.

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2023-09-21 17:36 | Report Abuse

HL research again? Still nobody really known what make BAT dropping from 10.60-10.70 to 9.30…. Only speculation is the coming budget would raise tax on cigarettes but BAT already at low valuation n price while it has dropped below 9.90….. Some said will drop to below 8.90-9.00?? Then at the same time , ppl buying overvalued FFB , MRDIY ?

Posted by Investman1981 > 2023-09-21 19:37 | Report Abuse

Earlier i still hold shares even hit $10.00 because it is addict biz. Now no longer confidence anymore. My question is who seller and buyer trade in shares?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-21 19:53 | Report Abuse

Today 9.23. Classic bear drop like falling knife. I tried to warn all you longs on weekend. I then sold on Monday my longs at 9.65. I explained very patiently for those willing to listen. This is still a falling knife.

Who is selling? For this volume, it is clearly institutional.

Why are they selling? Looks to me more and more institutions are realizing that this is a sad long term bear case.

As Engineering puts it - this is probably one of the strongest long term bear case in casino de bursa.

What is it worth long term? Assuming very successful Vuse and zero cigarettes then it is not worth even 70 Sen.

That’s how strong the bear case is.

There is simply nothing to induce institutionals now, after they de-risk to come back in.

Longs have made a mistake. Still not too late to cash out at 9.2.

Give 2 years or less and you will see RM7.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-21 19:57 | Report Abuse

The only risk to my prediction of RM7 in less than 2 years is:
1. BAT Management and Board slash expenses by 20%.
2. BAT increases marketing budget to protect their declining cigarette customer segment.
3. BAT accepts slow death because it cannot be market leader in Vuse to compete with hundreds of China producers. There is no real premium segment in Vaping. Google “ best vape in Malaysia” and Vuse doesn’t even feature. BAT is simply too late in the vaping space and it will never have the same monopoly or leadership like it has in the cigarette market.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-21 20:03 | Report Abuse

Analysts will be watching BAT’s expenses in the coming QR like a hawk. Particularly the real cost of selling Vuse vs Vuse real revenues and total expenses. After subtracting long term expenses and allocating excess expenses to Vuse, if analyst discover that Vuse real margin is lower, this stock will crash.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-21 20:04 | Report Abuse

BAT in the coming QR will be trying all accounting tricks to show high Vuse margins. It won’t work because market is always smarter than any one accountant.

Posted by lee901 > 2023-09-21 21:26 | Report Abuse

Sunset business, still got hope?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-21 21:48 | Report Abuse

No.........(except on paper by doing creative accounting.....hehe)

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-22 09:31 | Report Abuse

Will probably stay close to RM9 until the QR release. If QR disappoint again then confirm gg

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-22 09:55 | Report Abuse

Or RM9.22 is its bottom price ..

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-22 10:23 | Report Abuse

this govt doesn't give a damn about tobacco industry and are happy to let it rot away..

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-22 12:01 | Report Abuse

Based on technical analysis of BAT stock price demise yesterday, rm8.63 has appeared as stronk support.
I’m surprised that there was virtually no bounce from rm9.26 touted by me as a stronk support previously.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:11 | Report Abuse

BAT made a new all time low today at 9.22 and rebounded. It "looks" like a "bear trap", but I am not convinced. As of today, bulls tries to regain control and the real test is Monday. I think next week is a good chance for those who are trapped on the long side to sell on strength.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:15 | Report Abuse

@MOBA, the key thing about technical analysis is to first figure out what is the TREND, before thinking about other details like resistance, support, etc. In BAT's case, the TREND is very obvious and the downward trend is supported by terrible and ugly fundamentals. Sure, price will go down, move up, etc. but the clear downtrend is unmistakeable if you look at charts longer than say 4 years. Since 2020, it has been trading on a sideways range, typical of long term consolidation, but today's price action to make a new all time low of 9.22 is not convincing. Nevertheless bulls have been defending strongly and so, it won't be so easy to break below 9.22 yet as the momentum next week is an attempt by bulls to push prices back up again to support.

If BAT makes a new low lower than 9.22 in the coming weeks, then, bulls will have lost and we will see even lower prices.

IMHO, next week or two may be the final chance for those who are long to exit their longs.

The longer longs hold on to their position, the greater the odds of them losing. Hold for 2 years and don't be surprised to see RM7.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:18 | Report Abuse

FWIW, without BAT, today, my portfolio made all time high again. It has made all time highs 3 times this week. One does not need BAT to win this game. There are so many other sound fundamental stocks with good technicals. Or buy good quality REITS at lower prices if one doesn't know technical analysis. REITS returns should match or beat EPF over 5-10 year time-frames.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:27 | Report Abuse

@Bradon, 9.22 is clearly the low today. Next week, 60/40 bias towards higher prices. The question mark is how long can bull sustain (a few days? 1 week? 2 weeks? 4 weeks to end Oct on next QR?) and how high can it get to (RM9.9?). I expect a lot of sellers near RM10. So, next week, next 2 weeks, next 4 weeks is critical. If prices starts to rise in the 4 weeks leading to QR release, majority chance the QR will disappoint. Punters are betting QR is good, hoping for a good Vuse results, but odds are not good here to bet on the long side.

I suspect, this next 1, 2, 4 weeks may provide opportunities for longs to exit on short term strength. I suspect 70/30 odds that RM10 resistance will hold, because many longs who averaged down below RM10 will try to exit near there to try to make a small profit. Those who are not greedy have 50/50 chance of making a tiny profit. Those who are greedy and tries to sell above RM10 like RM11 is banking on low odds of winning.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:31 | Report Abuse

For this week, for those who are long, I strongly advise to put a Stop Loss at below 9.2. Today is a bullish engulfing pattern signaling a potential trend reversal. So, by right, price should rise next week, if today's bullish engulfing follows through. So, next week, we don't expect 9.2 if follow technical analysis. However, If next week touches 9.2, this stock is completely dead. Hence, by right, next week, should be low odds of seeing 9.2 and when there's a low odd event happening, you should have a stop loss there because it should be low odds to see the stop loss gets executed. Trade dynamically, because market is not static by dynamic. The stop loss after next week will be different and gets updated later.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:40 | Report Abuse

https://punkjuicevapestore.co/collections/top-malaysian-brands

Where is Vuse?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-22 18:46 | Report Abuse

Today is Bullish Engulfing candlestick, where today's close (9.5) is higher than yesterday's high (9.45).
Bulls should feel a sigh of relief.
However, if (low odds) Monday shows a Bearish Engulfing candlestick (e.g. if Monday's close is below 9.22), I think you will be glad to have your Stop Loss at 9.2 gets hit.
If Monday do a Bearish Engulfing, we could be looking at a serious downtrend continuation.

Nevertheless, I think less than 20% chance Monday will show a Bearish Engulfing. Next week majority odds will rise / flat.

Posted by ongkkh > 2023-09-22 19:05 | Report Abuse

DividenGuy67, may i know what your holding at this moment? Understand you hold 40 counters, would like to study it. Thank you.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-22 20:40 | Report Abuse

Yup.....easy profit$ when buy real cheap....hehe

Be greedy when others are fearful, right?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-22 20:42 | Report Abuse

Let's call the threshold "the Midas touch" for now, ok?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-22 20:42 | Report Abuse

(a must sailang point)

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2023-09-22 21:15 | Report Abuse

Where are the naysayers?

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-22 21:28 | Report Abuse

When BAT stock price fell below rm9.26, the decision to sell 13,000 shares of MBB + 1,000 shares of UTDPLT was easy to make.
Then, picked up 14,000 shares of BAT at rm9.24, yesterday and today.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-22 22:28 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67
This is not a stock to employ DCA strategy for sure.
Of course, I’ve never doubted your stance on BAT long term downtrend bias and -ve outlook overall or in general.

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2023-09-22 22:59 | Report Abuse

Don’t be surprised some positive announcements during budget 2024 next month. Government really needs $$$$$……

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-23 08:28 | Report Abuse

@Simon, majority odds 2024 Budget will be neutral for BAT. Only very small minority odds that government will do a complete U turn on GEG. If you are betting on a U turn on GEG, that’s like buying TOTO. 😂

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-23 08:29 | Report Abuse

Casino de bursa. Or is it Bursa de Casino 😂

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-23 08:31 | Report Abuse

@William, good to watch the price movements past 4 days but also watch price movement past 4 years and longer too so that you employ the right trading strategy. Many BAT retailers have been holding for longer than 4 months hoping for price to rise back and getting trapped. The longer they hold, the higher the odds of losing

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-23 08:34 | Report Abuse

@Ong, in i3, click on user name and you can see all of their past comments. There is enough clues if you study one’s comments to know which counter they are interested in.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-23 15:59 | Report Abuse

Most probably, the introduction of vape tax will be imposed.

Posted by SinGor > 2023-09-24 10:43 | Report Abuse

when Vape tax is just 10%, Local Vape price will wipe-out illegal Import ( overseas transportation for foreign
already Cost 10% of its selling price---How to compete with local Brand---Sorry BAT should be International
Brand ) As Vape replaces premium Cigs, BAT revenue will expand rapidly bcos BAT has over 1000 local Outlet

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2023-09-24 19:41 | Report Abuse

It is strange that dividendguy has been too active at this BAT column even though he has sold all or most of the BAt.....Keep telling ppl to sell BAT as the nice guy to ask ppl dont be stubborn.......May i know what other counters in your portfolio n are U more in fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Any one know more detail what going on in the Vape market? For BAT to get better quarterly profit for next 2 quarters, the investors n top management just need the government to work harder to reduce iilicit cigarettes in the market..........BAT is undervalued if below 9.80, with so many ppl coming to this i3investor to give negative comments, either they know more or some force want to pull down the share price of BAT........ Not many research houses giving new TP for BAT in past 2 months....

Posted by Havefun > 2023-09-25 08:53 | Report Abuse

Don't say too quickly. Hope it could keep the gain last Friday

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-25 10:03 | Report Abuse

will depend on next QR result to decide where it go

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-25 13:20 | Report Abuse

Wait for its Q3 next month then ..

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-25 14:47 | Report Abuse

if this round 9.22 break, then cu at 9

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 22:56 | Report Abuse

@Kevin, I cut loss at 9.65, losing 2 sen - my average cost is 9.67. Normally, when I lose monies in a stock, I like to keep track of the stock for another year to see if my fundamental thesis is correct. I like to read fundamental comments here to see where the blindspots are. This is part of becoming a better investor. I don't mind being proven wrong by market. When I sell, I have a thesis and here, I feel it is a strong one.

I see from your past comments that you are advocating DCA for this stock. Why do you think this stock is under-valued and worth to average down? Are you aware that Vape market in Malaysia is now generating RM3.5 billion revenue? And cigarette market revenue is only RM4.9 billlion? And BAT share of Vape is hardly anything? Don't you think BAT is too late?