Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:16 | Report Abuse

In short, there is no fundamental reason to own BAT. There is no technical reason to go long on BAT.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-17 13:17 | Report Abuse

My simple criteria: Are the earnings consistent and growing?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:19 | Report Abuse

If tomorrow, BAT successfully converts 100% of its cig smokers into Vape, BAT will trade at RM1, close to its NTA of RM1.31. Of course, it is impossible to happen. But give BAT 10 years, I think it's doable. Eventually, a lot of these cig smokers will convert into Vape where BAT competes with hundreds of Made in China vape makers. BAT is a nobody in the vape market in Malaysia.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:20 | Report Abuse

Exactly 3iii.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:24 | Report Abuse

The more BAT spends to penetrate the Vape market, the faster it's price will fall.
Hard to understand if you are not a business man.
It is far too late for BAT to take leadership in the vape market which is dominated by China.
It is end-game already for BAT. It's future is sealed.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:27 | Report Abuse

The best thing BAT can do is slash its Management expenses by 20% every year. Cut its cost of sales every year by 20%. Then, as it shows bigger profits, its share price will rise temporarily.

But eventually, after say 1-3 years of slashing expenses by 20%, it won't be able to do so.

Then, it's price will resume its fall towards RM1.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:32 | Report Abuse

The second best thing BAT can do is to convince the world that smoking cigarrettes gives a better feeling than vaping. Make it a VIP experience. A privilege for the privileged few. Show real rich only smoke cigs and not vape. Spend 10% more on advertising to give that ultra superior brand. In other words, rather than invests in vape and competes with hundreds of China producers, accept death and tries to protect the cig market. BAT's future is in the cig market which is dying, but it's a question of prologing death, or die faster by committing suicide by spending a lot on vape and then find it has no moat in this new market due to China. What can 1 Malaysia cig maker do to take on hundreds of China vape makers - not even Malaysia government can stop this trend.

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 13:42 | Report Abuse

Bleak future for Batman

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 13:44 | Report Abuse

Is Vape cheaper than Cigarettes???

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 13:50 | Report Abuse

Is it like Mainframe computers killed by mini computer.
Mini computers killed by Personal Computers.
Personal computers killed by Laptop computers.
Laptop computers killed by notebook computers.
Notebook computers killed by Tablets computers or iPads.
Tablet computers killed by foldable smartphone.
Macam ini kah cerita Batman???

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 13:53 | Report Abuse

Bat man must advertise the aura of luxury to smoke cigarettes versus puffing water vapours…
This advertisement campaign must be started soon.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:00 | Report Abuse

In 2024-5, I will not be surprised if BAT falls to RM7, because I think there's 80% chance of happening.
I would be extremely, extremely surprised, if BAT didn't touch RM7 by FYE2025.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:04 | Report Abuse

Interesting analogy Income. BAT is like a Mainframe computer producer who finds itself with no moat in the laptop space because there are hundreds of China producers who produces laptops cheaper, faster. The best thing BAT can do is not spend millions to try to compete with the hundreds of China laptop producers. The best thing it can do is to convince people that it's mainframes are indispensable, and able to perform special things. It may not be 100% true, but BAT is dying anyway, no harm to try to prolong death. But if it tries to compete with these hundreds of laptop producers in China, it will just be burning cash for nothing.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:07 | Report Abuse

Vape market has already grown +53% in 2023 to RM3.5 billion market. Where is BAT's share in Vape in this RM3.5 billion market? Practically not even 0.1%. BAT is too late in the vape. What does it know about vaping? It has to learn and start from scratch. Sure, it tries to copy and use the best out there but what competitive cost experience does it really have? It tries to bluff by saying Vuse is just like Dunhill etc one of the leading brands, but that is empty claim, not supported by market share statistics. Market knows the truth and this one cannot bluff. Whereas if BAT claims Dunhill is fantastic experience, that is 100% true and supported by market statistics. Market knows when BAT is talking the truth vs bullshit.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:13 | Report Abuse

BAT says it is late in the Vape space because it's trying to follow the laws of Malaysia. Haha. That's like the worst excuse. Market knows Vape generates RM3.5 billion revenue, where Vuse is not even capturing 3.5 million yet. It doesn't even get inside 0.1%. This is certain death. As in not supporting RM9.57 price. More like supporting 9 sen price. BAT has to do a lot of work to be valued at 95 sen with vuse alone. Remember, BAT number of shares outstanding is 286 million. 1 sen means it needs to generate 2.86 million in earnings. If sales is lower than 3.5 million, earnings a fraction of that, it will struggle to be valued at 9 sen without cigs.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:16 | Report Abuse

If I was Buffett and BAT is available for sale, I might consider offering 30% premium over NTA because of its existing cig business. Maybe RM1.7 and no more than RM2. then, once I own it, I will slash management expenses, stop this silly investing and spending in Vuse, and try to protect the cig space earnings. My estimated yearly earnings is around 65 sen. I would not pay more than 3 times for that, since it is dying space. I might prolong it to 3 times more but that is the reward for the risk I take. So, a private sale might generate RM1.7 to RM2 to interest buyers to take over BAT.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:20 | Report Abuse

By right, all IB should be recommending Strong Sell on BAT. Hold is simply wrong. Those holding since they call to hold would have now lost 80% of its value because of holding. There is only 1 correct call which is SELL. Doesn't matter if you sell at the opening on Monday at 9.57. In 2 years time, 9.57 will be seen as very good price.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:24 | Report Abuse

For this type of company, do NOT do DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging).
All you are doing whenever you buy is just throwing good money into a bad investment.
It doesn't help at all, whether your average cost is RM20, RM15 or RM10 when price is going down to RM1.
What matters is how much you have invested.
It matters a lot whether you are 2.5% invested, 5% invested, or 50% invested in BAT, regardless of your average cost price.
If you are 2.5% invested, the most you can lose is 2.5% if BAT goes to 1 sen.
If you are 50% invested, half your portfolio can be wiped out.
Therefore, if you are wrong already here, do NOT do DCA.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:26 | Report Abuse

Only amateurs do DCA in a situation like this.
Later, on Monday, if there are professional investors reading this and putting on their thinking hats, they will cut loss and sell on Monday. Professionals do not commit more monies into a losing stock. Neither does Institutional Investors. Only amateur retailers keeps throwing good money into bad investments.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:32 | Report Abuse

I made a mistake in BAT, when I queue and not chase at RM10. My purchase at RM10 is nearly 1% of my portfolio. My strategy is simple here on Monday. I am willing to sell on Monday. Let say I sell at RM9 and lose 10%. This is only 0.1% of my capital. I have far bigger trading wins let alone dividends collected that will over come this. Therefore, I have no plans for a DCA in this stock. I cut my loss and move on. Odds are high, I will sell higher than 9.57 close successfully, so, my loss is even smaller than I planned.

This should be the professional mindset - not DCA blindly.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 14:44 | Report Abuse

Actually, when I cut loss tomorrow, I also don't behave like an institutional investor.
Institutional investors benchmark against an index. For example, KLSE index.
Therefore, their mix follows the index.
Let say the BAT share in their benchmark index is 1%.
So, their neutral stance is 1% mix.
When BAT share price falls, it's share in the benchmark index is automatically reduced to 0.8% say.
Then, the institutional investor do nothing - they maintain their mix to 0.8%.

In short, the professional institutional investors do not blindly do DCA, as what "educators"/websites/etc. teach ignorant retail investors.

The professionals get someone else to teach the ignorant retailers to do things differently than what they actually do.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 15:00 | Report Abuse

To amplify what professionals does with BAT.
1. BAT is not a component of the KLCI index (Top 30 companies). Therefore, if a professional results is benchmark against KLCI Top 30, then, he would only invest in BAT *if* he thinks that BAT will outperform the KLCI index. Here, he doesn't, therefore, he has zero weighting in BAT.
2. BAT may be a component of the FBM Top 100. If so, it's weighting should be less than 1% of the index. So, if the professional investor is benchmarked against the FBM Top 100, his neutral stance is less than 1% of his portfolio. If he owns more than 1% of the portfolio, it means he is bulllish on BAT. If he is bearish on BAT, he will own slightly less than neutral stance. And if he has strong bearish views, he will probably hold 50%-70% of his neutral stance since he also has to report to his boss why he deviates. He may hold nil, if he can convince his boss that FBM100 will remove BAT from its index.

This is typically how professional investors invests. They don't make huge deviations from their benchmark.

And for sure, they do not do DCA. Their boss won't let them.

But in education space, someone always teach the ignorant retailers to do DCA, different than what the professionals do.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 15:20 | Report Abuse

Do what professionals do. Find a good boss with proven long term track record (at least 5 if not 10 consecutive years) and be 100% transparent to him/her.

If you are not beating FD rates, not beating KLCI index after 3-10 years of self investing, either you find a professional boss (not those educators who charges you a lot of monies with no real long term proven track record), and for 99.9% of you who cannot find one, then, put your monies into EPF first. Especially when EPF beats your past 3-10 year track record. And learn about good quality REITS. These can help you beat EPF. And be on the lookout for low cost unit trust - these are good with good timing i.e. after market crashes.

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-17 15:32 | Report Abuse

I oso read that book many many years ago

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 16:35 | Report Abuse

Wow, I don’t know that is how professional do… no DCA.

Posted by BILLC > 2023-09-17 18:59 | Report Abuse

In booosa,,,,,, DCA is the only way bilis can beat the sharks,,,,haha,,,,

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-17 22:29 | Report Abuse

Who is in their right mind recommends DCA for BAT ? It’s financially suicidal for sure.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-17 23:00 | Report Abuse

I shall be embroiled in trading speculation with UTDPLT & BAT stocks to mitigate unwarranted risks.
I won’t sell BAT 1,000 shares bought at rm9.68 (tiny unrealised loss) because my overall position is being mitigated or balanced by UTDPLT 1,000 shares bought at rm16.24 (tiny unrealised gain).

Posted by smartly > 2023-09-17 23:00 | Report Abuse

DCA mostly for REITS...safer

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-18 00:02 | Report Abuse

A majority of my stock holdings are in AAPL (since 2016 when Warren Buffett made his initial foray into the tech sector) and TSLA stocks (just recently, Jan 2023 after Elon Musk has promised to defer selling his shares for about 2 years).
Sold 100 shares at usd273.40 of TSLA and bought 13,000 shares at rm9.12 of MBB one day before ex-date.
The above 3 stock holdings are my low to minimum risk category long term investment.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-18 00:37 | Report Abuse

Why TSLA stock you might ask or wonder ?!
I know that TSLA didn’t fulfil the entire tenets of value investing however if Charlie Munger as the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway can “gung ho” into BYD stocks, so I believe that TSLA can be a viable choice because I’m convinced that it envisages to become an AI-powered autonomous robotics company.

Posted by getonwithit > 2023-09-18 00:40 | Report Abuse

Earnings low due to first q low sales coupled with heavy investment for vuse launch. Earnings rebounded Q2, and absence of such heavy investment should see EPS be higher going forward. Big drop last week mainly due to rebalancing (sharp drop nothing to do with specifically with business).

Nice if it drops more this week - can average down a bit. To those who sold all the best, to those buying/just bought all the best too

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-18 06:22 | Report Abuse

Vuse popularity worldwide is in excess of 35%. BAT must be diligent and rise to the challenging occasion to get this product known or well received in Malaysia.

Posted by invest8912 > 2023-09-18 10:33 | Report Abuse

DCA on a downtrend stock is a big NO. Hold and look out for other stocks. Cut loss and switch to other stocks on bad market days. Don't let past track records and ego blind your judgement.

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-18 11:47 | Report Abuse

look at today trend, decide to cut loss and move on, next support 9.22, if broken then below 9.

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-18 11:47 | Report Abuse

foregin fund will continue to sell, retails investor continue to buy, who will win?

Posted by invest8912 > 2023-09-18 13:56 | Report Abuse

I would rather listen those who cut loss than those who keep chanting buybuybuy everyday at almost any price. If they can talk up the share price, BAT should be more than RM20 now. Blame short sellers, IB, call warrants, CEO and etc is not going to help. The fundamental of BAT is weak, that's why people shorted it. BTW, BAT was once rated for stock with the most consistent earnings in Bursa, followed by BKawan. But that is history.

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-18 14:53 | Report Abuse

my main concern is actually foregin fund selling, normally they dont care when do rebalancing. just dump and dump. take time to recover, furthermore this stock look weak in future. could be dividend trap like magnum, sptoto and astro.

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-18 15:56 | Report Abuse

the past 2 QR were terrible. Many investors lost confidence especially when they thought after pandemic there would be some recovery under PH govt. Turns out QR results became even worse after pandemic..

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-18 17:41 | Report Abuse

@williamh
You see the glass half full while there are others see it half empty while I don’t bother to see the glass at all so that I remain skeptical and also, objective about the final outcome.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-18 18:35 | Report Abuse

When I’ve funds available to invest in Bursa’s stocks, 80% goes to MBB and 20% uneven split with a hot stock (UTDPLT) + a sexy speculative stock (BAT).
Just sold 50 shares of TSLA at usd278.40 and eager to burn some of it up in smoke with BAT.
An additional 60 shares of TSLA at usd283.40 is still outstanding in the sell queue.
Trying to load up on some dry powder for at least 3 “rainy” seasons.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-18 19:53 | Report Abuse

I am out of BAT. Sold 9.65. Average cost prior to sale 9.67. Tiny tiny loss mostly due to commissions than actual loss. I hav3 over 40 other stocks that has better prospects than BAT. Consider myself lucky in BAT not to DCA and move on. Too many great stocks out there to worry about BAT.

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-19 11:51 | Report Abuse

Totally, agreed. DCA method can beat the sharks and don't let to wash us away easily

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-19 20:02 | Report Abuse

Strongest bear in casino de bursa

Posted by The_JQuestion > 2023-09-19 20:27 | Report Abuse

Gonna collect with my margin account... seems like good deal

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-20 00:45 | Report Abuse

Fwiw, my portfolio without BAT is already making new record levels today … don’t need BAT to make money and grow portfolio

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-20 00:46 | Report Abuse

Engineering … a nice way to describe BAT. Over next few years this could possibly be the strongest bear stock in Bursa.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-20 00:49 | Report Abuse

For the benefit of those who are still long and has done DCA, I sincerely wish that for your sake BAT will rise and allow you to exit at little loss or no loss or with gains.

But do exit your long position quickly in a downtrend because leave too late, your loss will get bigger and bigger.

I hope everyone makes a profit but reality is majority who are long in a downtrend stock always lose monies.

This is sad reality.

Nevertheless sincere best wishes to all longs.

Posted by troy88 > 2023-09-20 10:27 | Report Abuse

Slow death..

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-20 10:54 | Report Abuse

Bought a few thousand shares of BAT at rm9.57.
Simply outrageous as common sense did not prevail in this instance.