Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-15 15:28 | Report Abuse

Wah, there are 136,300 heroes buyers at 9.65...
Somebody selling short may campak/throw at them all of it...
I got out at 13, itching to buy near it's lows !?

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-15 16:02 | Report Abuse

138,900 heroes buyers currently according to @TakeProfits it’s amazing that they are able to find rm9.65 as an immediate support.
With the aid of my “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques” book by Steve Nison 2nd ed, rm9.64 - rm9.65 appear as minor support.

Posted by tnang > 2023-09-15 16:53 | Report Abuse

manage to get at 9.57. slowly collect for dividend

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-15 17:45 | Report Abuse

rm9.55, rm9.36 and rm9.17 for reference as nasty stock price drop to get in little by little.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-15 18:00 | Report Abuse

I’ll definitely queue up to buy at rm9.48 (little bit) and rm9.28 (a little more).

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-15 20:28 | Report Abuse

As dividend investor, one should study its dividends closer.
1. TTM dividend = 75 sen.
2. 75 sen is record low dividend - prior FYE dividends = 88 / 98 / 83 / 118 / 155 / 169 / 232 / 312 for FYE 22 / 21/ 20 / 19/ 18 / 17 / 16 / 15.
3. Over past 8.5 years, dividend has SHRUNK 15.4% per annum.
4. If dividends continue to shrink 15% per annum, then, FYE 2023 dividend will not be 88 sen, but lower ~ 75 sen. Coincidentally, this equals TTM dividend of 75 sen.
5. Looking closer, BAT has cut Q1/23 and Q2/23 dividends to 13 and 16 sen respectively (Q1/22 = 17 sen; Q2/22 = 25 sen). Q3/22 & Q4/22 dividend = 25 and 21 sen which looks high relative to 13 and 16 sen, suggesting Q3 and Q4 dividends may be cut further i.e. FYE2023 dividend will be lower than 15% shrink rate this year.
6. My guess is that FYE2023 dividend = 68 sen (say 66 to 70 sen). Basically I am giving myself a 7 sen buffer cut. that Q3 and Q4 2023 dividend will be cut by a total of 7 sen.
7. What do I think of 68 sen dividend for 2023? At RM9.57 closing price, 0.68 / 9.57 = 7.1%.
8. What do I think of 7.1% in a declining dividend stock that shrinks its dividend by 15% per annum? Not quite enough reward yet.

So, I think I'll wait at a lower price before getting in. Still downtrending anyway. Let's see.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 03:15 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67

Invest in stock, expects to earn 11% from capital appreciation and dividend with moderate risk.
Under the low to minimal risk category, it’s advisable to stride for about 8.5% ROI.

Posted by Income > 2023-09-16 10:14 | Report Abuse

Bat man Vape too much competition from private companies Vape. TP5.00 achievable???

Posted by Income > 2023-09-16 10:17 | Report Abuse

Is this Bat man like TopG movies replaying??? Scary

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 10:27 | Report Abuse

Yes, penny stock in the making

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 10:27 | Report Abuse

Next is RI

Posted by dem777 > 2023-09-16 14:03 | Report Abuse

Next support level is 8.88. Wait patiently

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 14:57 | Report Abuse

Wait.......... .......

Posted by teknikal > 2023-09-16 15:06 | Report Abuse

Downtrend intact with share price below MA20, 50 and 200.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 16:18 | Report Abuse

Down....down.....down (gg)

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 16:56 | Report Abuse

If stock price fall below rm9.26, then its impact would be catastrophic as similar to jumping off a 100m cliff.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 17:11 | Report Abuse

Unstoppable fall from grace.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:19 | Report Abuse

@MOBAjobg,
Re your comment on 11% vs 8.5% on moderate risk vs low risk, historically it is not supported in Bursa index in Malaysia.
Anyway, this is a forum on BAT.
BAT business model has changed after Vape.
In the old days, BAT and 2 others controlled 95% of Malaysia's cigarrettes, with regulatory protection, heavy taxes - little competition, extremely high margins, true taxes are high but after tax margins still profitable.
Today, 90% of the vape producers are from China. There are hundreds of legal vape producers selling in Malaysia. Not 3 companies. The competitive landscape is now completely different. The Malaysia vaping/cig world will no longer be the same as before. This is why, BAT fall is permanent.

Now, as to where is the bottom, no one knows. Eventually, the bottom will be hit. If this bottom is drastically lower, then, rebound power is stronger initially, but I would advise people who owns BAT to exit on bounces, because BAT is no longer the same company competing in the same market in Malaysia. The Malaysia market has changed permanently.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:26 | Report Abuse

Yes, there are lots of illegal cigarettes in Malaysia. however, mathematically, it is obvious to investors that:
1. Assuming 50% legal and 50% illegal and BAT+2 others controls 95% of the legal market, then, mathematically, BAT + 2 others control say 48% of combined legal and illegal cigarettes. That's still a huge share, say 16% each.
2. Assuming 300 legal vape producers of which BAT is 1 of them, BAT will be lucky to command 1% of the legal vape market.
3. It is unclear if BAT can even catch 1% of Malaysia's vaping market share let alone 16%.

If one assumes margins in Vape (after taxes) equal to margins in cigarettes (after taxes), then, it is clear, that BAT today will no longer be the same company as it was years ago before Vape comes into the picture.

BAT has to continue to push the cigarette business because it still has a moat.
If BAT kills its own cigarette business, its market value will crash and burn.
Analysts are just waiting to downgrade BAT further if it doesn't protect its moat

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:29 | Report Abuse

If tomorrow, BAT stop selling cigarrets, closes its entire cigarrette business and focus only on Vapes, it's share price should not be larger than RM1. It will become a penny stock.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 17:35 | Report Abuse

The only way forward.....Rokok is haram (vape is not)

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:45 | Report Abuse

@tnang, BAT is no longer suitable for dividend investors.
The huge question mark is what is future BAT strategy - will it be #1 = To maximize milking its cash cow (cigarettes) notwitstanding it is a declining business? or will it be #2 = Replace cigarettes with Vapes to be sexy and "follow the trend"?

My target price for #1 is 10%-15% annual reduction in share price per annum.
Target price for #2 is far bigger = maybe double, and a share price crash.

The irony is no Board and no Senior Management will opt for #1.
This is similar to ASTRO where it is in a dying business, and ASTRO opted for the sexier option which is #2, which is to get a HUGE loans, kill its cash cow and now it dies even faster. #1 dies very slowly but milking its cash cow can justify say 8%-10% dividend yield, but #2 - even with 10% dividend yield is not high enough, when yearly fall is larger than 10% per annum.

Hence, investors and dividend investors should avoid BAT. Only traders, trying to pick bottom and sell on bounces may consider but odds are majority of traders will lose.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:48 | Report Abuse

@engineering ... The only way forward.....Rokok is haram (vape is not).

With this view, BAT will become a penny stock in next 3-5 years. If rokok is truly haram and BAT has to close its cig business in 3-5 years, it will become a penny stock. Vape cannot create even RM1 in value to BAT.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 17:56 | Report Abuse

Among cig smokers, they all know what is Dunhill, Peter Stuyvesant, KYO, Rothmans ... etc. this is BAT's moat - monopolizing say 16% of all legal and illegal cig market.

Among hundreds of legal vape makers (forget illegal first), does Vuse even command a tiny fraction of the branding power?

If BAT Board and Management comes out and say they will replace Cigs with Vape, you run away from BAT very, very fast and never touch BAT ever again.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:05 | Report Abuse

Vape market in Malaysia (2023) ~ RM 3.5 billion ==> increasing trend, maybe doubling every 2-3 years? (LY increase +53%).
Cigs market in Malaysia (2023) ~ RM 5 billion ==> decreasing trend.
Hard to imagine non-smokers take up vaping - likely at the expense of cig smokers switching.

The high dividends from BAT this year, last year, prior years ... have gone up in smoke unfortunately.
Replacement is real.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:13 | Report Abuse

A simple exercise for all of you "investors".

1. Google "Best cigarette in Malaysia" - you will see many BAT products out there.
2. Google "Best vape in Malaysia" - you will see nothing of BAT products out there.

If BAT keeps its expensive expats in Malaysia, keep spending and spending and keep trying to make a presence in Vape in Malaysia to replace cigs, this stock one day won't be worth RM1 ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:22 | Report Abuse

BAT expenses is extremely fat because it was once a leading company.
Go to BAT Annual report page 88 and you'll see how much they pay their Directors and Senior Management - it's a fat amount. Multi-millions in a declining business. They need to slash that a lot and hunker down. Which of course, has 0.1% chance of ever happening. Odds are, 99.9%, these expenses will remain fat whilst everyone of them tries to milk the company as much as possible.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:28 | Report Abuse

Last year, the Group's Revenue is 2.596 billion. Cost of sales is 1.918 billion. The problem is this high cost of sales - a massive 77%.

Now, we know tobacco leaf is very, very cheap... a tiny fraction. Not even 1% of the retail price. By right, they can slash the massive cost of sales a lot. But there is only 0.1% willingness to do this. 99.9%, everyone in the chain wants to milk the most out of a declining revenue.

So, how will BAT ever grows its earnings sustainably? I can't think of a way, unless I own BAT entirely, slash management costs by 80%, reduce marketing costs (since my brand has monopoly) and try to "hunker down" in a declining revenue business. Basically accept I will die eventually i.e. how can I maximize the value before I die completely.

This is the logical and optimal thing to do.

however, the odds of this happening is 0.1%. 99.9%, they will end up spending more despite declining revenue, to try to survive and in the process, kill themselves faster.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 18:43 | Report Abuse

I’m prepared and ready to test my amateurish technical analysis stock charting techniques while BAT is in a complete price spiral meltdown hoping for 11% ROI.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:47 | Report Abuse

Right now, it's too late for the government to do a U turn. The permanent damage has been done. Malaysia government has to now accept that its tax revenues from BAT will forever be lower. This is close to certainty already. The reason the damage has been done permanent is because Vape market is now RM3.5 billion, close to cigs market of RM4.9 billion. The exponential increase in Vape was +53% last year i.e. it is already too late and nothing Malaysia government can do now.

Even if tomorrow, Anwar comes out and says GEG is disbanded, nothing will change. Vape market will continue to grow, cigs market continue to shrink. The best Anwar can do is to say "cigs will be taxed lower" - then, BAT will spike 10% say but the downtrend remains.

Basically, the downtrend is stronger than anything the government can do.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 18:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/good-return-on-investment/
…almost 12% ROI, so has been revised upwards by 1% since last I’d checked.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:54 | Report Abuse

@MOBA, lol. If you follow technical analysis then, you should be shorting BAT and hold your short until BAT shows reversal. Right now, from memory, the RM10 has been strong support for 3 years meaning now that it is conclusively broken, technical analysis says it can fall as low as RM7 in next few months to next couple years if I am not mistaken. I am not a trader per se but if I was I would cut loss and wait at the bottom using technical analysis. Or if Bursa lets retailers like me short using online retail platform (I can’t do it yet), I would prefer to short at spikes.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-16 18:55 | Report Abuse

@MOBA, Motley Fool is not talking about Malaysia.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 19:05 | Report Abuse

I know, it’s not but should apply nonetheless.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 19:34 | Report Abuse

There are 2 main methods to derive gains from technical analysis in stock trading.
I prefer Buy low Sell high rather than short-selling practices.

Posted by Income > 2023-09-16 19:39 | Report Abuse

Bat man Vape too much competition from private companies Vape. TP5.00 achievable???

Posted by Income > 2023-09-16 19:43 | Report Abuse

Exactly like Astro… sad

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 20:04 | Report Abuse

The immediate price support level is rm9.26 recorded just slightly more than 3 years ago.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 20:10 | Report Abuse

Fell from the highest rm74.40 until now, the bottom is nowhere insight yet.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-16 20:29 | Report Abuse

That's why - never fall in love with any particular stock. Follow the trend & let go

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 21:39 | Report Abuse

If a public listed company can grow to become a behemoth after evaluation from fundamental analysis such as Apple or AAPL stock in year 2010 or Tesla or TSLA in year 2019 / Jan 2023, accumulate by dollar cost average (DCA) and hold its shares through thick or thin until successful.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 21:57 | Report Abuse

I’ve learnt fundamental analysis from “The Intelligent Investor” book by Benjamin Graham and Value Investing from Warren Buffett’s stock portfolio.
The latter was the former’s apprentice. You would have never imagined that the Oracle of Omaha had a mentor.

Posted by williamh > 2023-09-16 22:22 | Report Abuse

After the production factory closed down and move to Indonesia the valuation of bat was around 30 at that time and 74 was when the factory still operating here ，even though it’s around 80% discount compared to the valuation of without the factory here, if you are still hesitated to pick up it may probably bat is not for you ，in 3 years time bat can grow 500%

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-16 22:36 | Report Abuse

Historical Performance of BAT

YEAR .. DPS(SEN) .. EPS(SEN) .. YEPX .. PER
2009 .. 250 .. 261.54 .. 42.8 .. 16.4
2010 .. 239 .. 256.05 .. 45 .. 17.6
2011 .. 273 .. 252.03 .. 49.92 .. 19.8
2012 .. 261 .. 279.39 .. 62 .. 22.2
2013 .. 281 .. 288.39 .. 64.12 .. 22.2
2014 .. 309 .. 315.9 .. 65.1 .. 20.6
2015 .. 312 .. 318.73 .. 56.08 .. 17.6
2016 .. 233 .. 236.44 .. 44.6 .. 18.9
2017 .. 249 .. 175.77 .. 40 .. 22.8
2018 .. 151 .. 164.09 .. 36.08 .. 22.0
2019 .. 132 .. 126.47 .. 15.08 .. 11.9
2020 .. 89 .. 91.29 .. 14.08 .. 15.4
2021 .. 98 .. 103.02 .. 13.98 .. 13.6
2022 .. 94 .. 98.41 .. 11.22 .. 11.4


YEPX = Year End Share Price

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-16 23:06 | Report Abuse

@williamh

The fundamental analysis of BAT doesn’t look great at all or key financial ratios continue to shrink in the last 5 years.
I’ll continue to monitor its financial health for this year and the next. Perhaps, a miracle can happen.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-16 23:09 | Report Abuse

A lot of headwinds for many years already.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-17 07:15 | Report Abuse

https://www.therakyatpost.com/living/2023/04/18/sweden-just-became-the-worlds-1st-smoke-free-country-can-malaysia-do-the-same/?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral&tblci=GiDg5zQQRvqRZOeLrpMr1D2BX5eUZMqP58Hqyr5ELaSOUyC2olYox7-s4qfF3ILOAQ#tblciGiDg5zQQRvqRZOeLrpMr1D2BX5eUZMqP58Hqyr5ELaSOUyC2olYox7-s4qfF3ILOAQ

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-17 07:15 | Report Abuse

https://www.therakyatpost.com/living/2023/04/18/sweden-just-became-the-worlds-1st-smoke-free-country-can-malaysia-do-the-same/?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral&tblci=GiDg5zQQRvqRZOeLrpMr1D2BX5eUZMqP58Hqyr5ELaSOUyC2olYox7-s4qfF3ILOAQ#tblciGiDg5zQQRvqRZOeLrpMr1D2BX5eUZMqP58Hqyr5ELaSOUyC2olYox7-s4qfF3ILOAQ

Posted by Income > 2023-09-17 10:26 | Report Abuse

Prof 3iii why JohnChe w your student doesn’t follow you teaching, because he buy Jaks, etc

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-17 13:14 | Report Abuse

Graham is different from Buffett. Graham would never touch BAT and neither would Buffett. BAT fails to meet Graham's criteria to invest in cigar butts with margin of safe. BAT NTA is 1.31, P/NTA = 9.57 / 1.31 = 7.3 times, so, Graham would discard BAT. Graham may consider BAT when its price / NTA is around 0.7, i.e. when BAT price falls to 0.7 x 1.31 ~ 92 sen.

Buffett would disregard BAT too, as his places strong views on where BAT would be like in 10 years time. Answer - not a bigger earnings business, as the market is shrinking.