Posted by Donator > 2023-10-30 09:46 | Report Abuse

完了完了，那么迟才出 QR，应该不是很好

Posted by RTSH7182 > 2023-10-30 13:06 | Report Abuse

I DON`T UNDERSTAND CHINESE! SOMEONE, PLEASE TRANSLATE FOR ME. TQ.

Posted by Donator > 2023-10-30 16:42 | Report Abuse

I dont think is art of war...normally if good QR will release early

Posted by Kalaihselvan Krishnan > 2023-10-30 16:46 | Report Abuse

Yes, maybe bad QR. Hope that I am wrong.

Posted by Jnlee > 2023-10-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

is the results consider good?

Posted by Jnlee > 2023-10-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

profit increase

Posted by Donator > 2023-10-30 17:20 | Report Abuse

result okok only...hope can do better next quarter

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-10-30 18:27 | Report Abuse

Two negative factors became apparent.
Dividend payout has reduced to 90.91% is a disappointment to say the least while revenue has decreased by 10.52% (QoQ) is plain and simple “underperformed”.

Posted by SinGor > 2023-10-30 18:43 | Report Abuse

vuse and Glo (heat-Not-Burned Cig) started in Oct 2023. ----Results are Not in this Qr results
Traditional Cigs Sales are falling But Vape Sale ( Malaysia ) has leaped forward replacing Tobacco by a wide
margin----2nd Qr, BAT has used upto RM200mil as expenses to jump start Vuse----I think 4Qr result will
see Vape Revenue replacing Tobacco by 35%--40% ( Start of a new Era )

Posted by SinGor > 2023-10-31 10:39 | Report Abuse

GLO ( heat-not-Burned Cig ) has replaced 50%++ of Japanese Market. Malaysia will follow for Health reason.
As far as I know from DAP, Anwar's budget Cannot be fully implemented---Taxes Cannot cover Expenses---
Almost 80% of Malaysia Taxes are used for Salaries + important facilities----Gov will Not forego Tobacco's
taxes or else public services will Stop or teachers salary not pay

Posted by Donator > 2023-11-03 09:43 | Report Abuse

if next few quarter remain ~ (RM190*4quarter)/RM9,400 = 8.08%

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-11-07 09:35 | Report Abuse

Keep dilly-dally on the tobacco bill 😑

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/11/06/mma-slams-new-govt-attempt-to-delay-tobacco-bill/

Posted by troy88 > 2023-11-07 10:26 | Report Abuse

Already said this govt doesn't give a damn about tobacco industry. At the moment Anwar more interested in helping the rakyat miskin improve their quality of life..

Posted by Donator > 2023-11-07 13:00 | Report Abuse

dont worry, at least still can survive for 10 year

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-08 00:16 | Report Abuse

@williamh, I think next quarter earnings will be around 16-18 sen, suggesting dividend to be around 15-17 sen. If this year's total dividend is 62 sen, that's a solid business result, but will be disappointing because prior years dividends are:

2023 - 62-64 sen?
2022 - 88 sen
2021 - 98 sen
2020 - 83 sen
2019 - 118 sen
2018 - 156 sen
2017 - 169 sen
2016 - 232 sen
2015 - 312 sen.

The huge and persistent downtrend in dividend is unmistakeable. BAT pays out 96% of its EPS, so, its dividends is highly tied to its EPS which is also declining.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-08 00:17 | Report Abuse

@donator - BAT will be around for much longer than 10 years IMHO - easily 15 years. However, based on past trends, its EPS and DPS looks like it will keep shrinking and shrinking and shrinking and meanwhile, its price will keep shrinking in line too.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-08 00:22 | Report Abuse

@SinGor, Vuse is mentioned 3 times in Q3 quarterly report. Sales started in Q3 as disclosed there.

In Section B7, it is stated: " Profit from operations reported an increase of 16.6% from RM73 million to RM85 million mainly as a result of lower operating expenses due primarily to reduced vapour product launch investments in the current period compared to the second quarter."

In other words, in Q3, they spend less to promote Vuse. What will happen to sales of Vuse when they spend less to promote?

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-09 15:31 | Report Abuse

But BAT is still one of the TOP companies that give lots of dividends. Even better than Maybank and RHB, I noticed.

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-09 15:32 | Report Abuse

I just bought a few thousand shares at 9.420 just now

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-09 15:32 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow is the EX Date :-)

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-10 02:16 | Report Abuse

@BudiLee, the stocks with the highest dividend yields like BAT doesn't actually give decent total returns, compared to MAYBANK.

Consider past 5 years. BAT price lost 75%, MAYBANK price lost 1.8%. However MAYBANK Total Return is very decent, still beating EPF rate, due to consistent Dividend Yield. Whereas BAT Total Returns, after its "higher dividends" is still an astounding massive loss!

I have observed that when the Dividend Yield is too high, the stock Total Returns are actually not that great - often it is negative because the Price loss offsets the dividends. Get 9% dividend but lost 18% in Price.

Whereas mid dividend stocks like APOLLO, gives safe, nice, excellent Total Returns with good dividend yields too. Over past 5 years, Price gains is around 24% and coupled with solid 5% dividend yield per annum gives returns that easily beat EPF consistently.

These stocks mentioned are not necessarily Buys today, but they are good to buy when price is depressed, when nobody wants them.

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-11-10 11:42 | Report Abuse

After the ex-date of dividend, it will rebound

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-10 23:40 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67, makes sense, thank you for the sharing, appreciate it.

Posted by Income > 2023-11-11 13:45 | Report Abuse

https://youtube.com/shorts/QiByd7YMb80?si=Llh81SarP0_Y3CP1

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-11-12 16:01 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67
Thank you for sharing Ur thoughts!
Very matured n wise discussions!

Agree with you!
Will be a good buy when price is depressed!

Posted by ivanlau > 2023-11-12 22:42 | Report Abuse

--------- quote ------------

Stock: [BAT]: BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M)

1 month ago | Report Abuse

If based on forward eps 85 x 10 pe , the fair value will be rm 8.50 , today closing 9.75, good luck guys........
----------- unquote ---------
Today closing 9.15 !!!

Posted by Income > 2023-11-13 15:11 | Report Abuse

Sure, in the past, people ate to extract the nutrients in food because it was the only method to obtain these nutrients. Now foods we eat have less than 20% of the nutrients that they used to due to over-farming and other causes. Food also has far more negative contents than it ever used to (pesticides, toxic chemicals pulled from the soil, intentional processing and modification, etc.). But we also now have supplements! I've researched many supplements for years and take quite a few regularly (ok, I take a lot!). Once, I had a friend state "Those shouldn't be replacing food!" At the time I pointed out that they were literally just "supplementing" my food intake, but this is where my question is coming from.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-11-13 17:36 | Report Abuse

No one can be sure how this 🦇 price will move..!
I NO in on 🦇.. Bat..
I out ...too risky
May take a while to break 9

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-11-13 17:40 | Report Abuse

Thanks Dividendguy67...Great dividend analysis on BAT by you...
Yes, need stocks that pays good dividends regularly with increasing capital gains !!

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-11-13 21:46 | Report Abuse

As long as revenue for BAT has not bottomed yet, its stock price will keep on dropping lower.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:17 | Report Abuse

3 weeks ago, I posted this: "If BAT doesn't go above 9.83 in next 2 weeks, we will definitely see lower low than 9.14 in the next 2 months."

Since it didn't go above 9.83, the next 3 weeks, price fell below 9.15. Today's close is 9.10, as I predicted.

These are simple technical analysis that keeps repeating themselves majority of the times. Not all the time, but when it happens, I'm not surprised.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:24 | Report Abuse

The simple technical analysis is not something you need to learn from books or from "gurus". It's just common sense. Business wise, over the past 8 years, this is a sunset stock. EPS declines massively. DPS declines massively. Then, you have confirmation of a downtrend that is intact - just look at the price chart 20 years ago 6 feet away and even a 6 year old child can tell you it is downtrending.

Then, coupled with a "lower high" - 9.83 - it's already telling you it has no strength to go up. Which means, as Jesse Livermore says ... the path of lesser resistance is down ... if he was around, he would be shorting BAT after it fails to go higher than 9.83 ... he would be taking loans, borrowing and short the hell out of BAT.

I'm too old to be this kind of trader. I'll just step aside and watch ... 😁

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:33 | Report Abuse

Now at 9.10, the critical test is RM9. Here, I really don't know what the price will do. The obvious question is - will RM9 hold and everyone is asking this question. I think there's 55% it will hold, 45% it will not hold on first attack. However, doesn't mean the attack is going to fail. Price at this type likes to do strange patterns.

If you have no position and thinking of going long, I would wait a small position at 9.01 - and then watch to see what it will do at lower prices. And in a few months time, when price goes back up again, it will retest the previous lower low of 9.15 say half the time. The other remaining times, RM9 may hold and bounce back up but unlike to get to 9.6 or thereabouts usually ...

So, technical analysis is just probabilities, based on price history that likes to sometimes repeat, but often it doesn't like to repeat but alternative and sometimes just doesn't follow any rules. If you can't live in VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Change and Ambiguity), then, Technical Analysis is not for you. As I get older, I prefer greater certainty than VUCA and if it means lower returns, but always beating FD and EPF, it's extremely good for me at my age.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:43 | Report Abuse

And I notice, some stocks have "animal spirits". Like BAT, which is a market leader in cigarettes dying a slow death. It's animal spirit is like a "boa constrictor". Once it gets hold of you and once you have a paper loss, it will slowly squeeze you to death very slowly ... takes months, and years, ... giving you small hope of an exit at a small gain ... but you reject ... then, gives you a small hope of a breakeven exit ... but you reject ... and then gives you a hope to exit at a small loss ... but you reject ... and eventually, one day, you realize, you have no chance to exit at a small loss ...

This kind of chart pattern is what I call a "boa constrictor". It will slowly squeeze you to death ... especially, if you average down and make yourself fat for this animal to eat you ...

Hence, some stocks with this kind of animal spirit - better to not do DCA ... else, you are just fattening yourself to be squeezed to slow death with lousy portfolio returns over this year, next year, the following year etc. It's a sure recipee to terrible portfolio returns over next 5 years.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:53 | Report Abuse

Whereas consider putting monies into FD. No chance of loss. Every month, your portfolio makes NEW HIGHS! Almost certainty. Such an easy way to make NEW HIGHS every single month. And so much enjoyable too. FD, EPF, they have good characteristics.

So, if you trade stocks, you want a strategy similar to this, but with better parameters. But you have to deal with Mr Market. So, Warren Buffett's way is probably the surest way ... find great businesses, stocks that is worth a lot more than Mr Market is valuing them ... especially stocks that has a competitive edge that is better than BAT.

To give you one example of a stock I am eyeing, it's HEIM. You got to look at its stock price chart 20 years ... then, you'll see a long term uptrend pattern and it is dipping towards its long term uptrend line. In other words, you want to buy during that "small" dip, in a broader uptrend.

Fundamentally, you want to be looking at its business. Is it a good business to own? Is it in a growing market or a steady market? Is it a market where there's competitors coming up with new ways to steal your share? (BAT fails here, due to cigarette alternatives where it hasn't got a competitive advantage).

With Heineken, it's moat is a lot, lot better than BAT.

Heineken, Carlsberg is also sin industry - I don't put any judgement, everyone's an adult who makes his/her own decision ... but I observe that this market is very hard to have a "Generational End game" unlike BAT.

So, a lot of the professional long term investors - if they like sin stocks - will definitely favor HEIM, CARLSBG than BAT.

Again, this one is a no brainer. 5, 10, 15 years from now, you'll definitely prefer one over the other.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-14 23:58 | Report Abuse

And for the record, I never believe in concentration, unlike Uncle Warren. I start from the position that in financial markets, there are too many smarter people working behind the scenes who controls monies and they are way, way way smarter than me. They have access to tools far, far, far more advanced than me. In other words, in terms of skills, they are way superior than me.

So, all I have to do is not lose monies long term. Mr Market volatility doesn't count. So, I own nearly 50 different stocks, including HEIM and CARLSBG. I have others that you can reasonably predict ... MAYBANK. PBBANK. And 40+ others. And I never chase them. I wait for the dip. Sometimes, I don't get enough. I originally started aiming for just 20 stocks with 5% holdings. But I never get to 5%. Sometimes 1.5%, sometimes 2% and then price runs up before I can accumulate. Then, I move on to other stocks. And sometimes, I am wrong - I have many losses but they are small and I have many winners where winners offsets losses and allow me to beat KLCI by 5-7% per annum. How can you lose if you buy these great stocks at low prices? You can only lose if you bet big on stocks like BAT that is downtrending. You can only lose if you keep averaging down on your losers. There are so many other good bets out there and Mr Market always give you an opportunity to buy them every quarter or every 6 months or every year, if you expand your universe.

Many silent people here knows what I mean.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-15 00:10 | Report Abuse

Another good solid type of stocks that will beat FD and EPF is REITS. My position is smaller than my target because my entry into REITS was a late one, only in past couple years. And I am too conservative to tie up my capital here because the good REIT prices is hard to enter at cheap price.

But I am very patient. I can wait for many years to get a good entry. So far I have entries in 9 REITS but no major positions in them. My total REIT exposure can be higher, but I have lots of cash waiting to deploy in them at low prices. My goal with REITS is to get them at a good price, good Dividend Yield on cost that will become my annuity to provide me with regular growing income over my lifetime.

My target is to get DY that is at least double the best FD rates out there and I need some relatively high certainty that this will happen in say the first 3 years of accumulation. So, it's price movements matters to me too, not just the current dividend yield - current figures are almost always meaningless to me, if there's no long term context behind them, especially past 20 year price charts.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-11-15 00:15 | Report Abuse

The stock long term history is important to me. If you don't have that history, then, you need to be a much more skillful trader. If you have its long term history, then, you can start to analyze and see comparatively how good a business it has over others and can roughly rank them and roughly get a sense on when and what price it is a good buy. So many players these days learn technical analysis, so, you just have to know them too but that's only micro timing. Being in the right boat around roughly the right time makes huge difference. If you buy during the low of a bull market, it doesn't really matter what you buy.

Today's KLCI has taken a beating for many many years ... so, a low price to buy a great business at fair price, or buy a fair business at low price (but this one have to let go when have a profit) are good odds if you know what to do ... what worries me actually is when KLCI then does a bull run over many years in the future ... in some ways, I do better during zig zag markets that trend down slightly ... my strategy seems to work best here. I will under-perform when market does a straight line up bull run - then, my strategy will underperform the market but still beat FD and EPF hands down in this type of market.

Posted by williamh > 2023-11-15 11:13 | Report Abuse

The shortish has been pushing it down until the lodgment date in order to get cheap enable to register, its over for now and it will reapeat after next qr in Feb by then they had already push higher from low price as today, these working only can scare the weak holders, bat fat dividen is able to off-set the price weakness if you able to hold long enough.sometime its beautif of the mkt due to many different views

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-11-15 11:34 | Report Abuse

They had shorted 1,175,570 shares of BAT as at 14 Nov ...

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/sblnt/NetShortPosition20231114.pdf?t=1700019176

Posted by williamh > 2023-11-15 13:07 | Report Abuse

So talking down is their stategic to close the position it will be opening to the cornering also

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-11-15 13:44 | Report Abuse

My gut instinct (not my value investing fundamentals or technical analysis) is telling me that BAT Q4 revenue will be reasonably larger than any of its financial 2023 year quarters, so l’m eager to collect some shares of BAT stock when the “buy signal” appears for trading speculation.

Posted by Income > 2023-11-15 14:10 | Report Abuse

I've been watching a lot of your comments of late.
Highly informative, objective and rational reasoning to the materials you lovingly deliver to your audience. This is the sort of education material that really needs to be delivered in our schooling systems as part of set/general syllabus.
Kids with the right information can start making informed decisions as to what they choose to consume…..and that, longitudinally, would have to help to reduce health issues and suffering in later life through poor diet and a positive impact to health bills and public spending. Great work my dear.

Posted by williamh > 2023-11-15 16:19 | Report Abuse

EPS and p/L is on the uptrend and next qr will comfirm that Vuse is coming strongly to off set the tranditional cigarette that has been comfirm in us and UK mkt

Posted by SinGor > 2023-11-15 17:23 | Report Abuse

Khairy wrote on his Instagram timeline that the two ministers are Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department (Law and Institutional Reform) Azalina Othman Said and Tourism, Arts and Culture Minister Tiong King Sing.

As for "the gaffer", it was...

" Tiong King Sing " Blocking GeG??? The politician that "Forced his way into immigration" to save Chinese
Tourist being Conned

Posted by williamh > 2023-11-15 22:14 | Report Abuse

The AG has stated its agaist the constitution of equal right full stop, Khairy is not above the law and is playing populariti and anti human right

Posted by Income > 2023-11-16 04:37 | Report Abuse

wow ,that's stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio

Posted by Unfair > 2023-11-16 10:34 | Report Abuse

KJ accuses two ministers and 'the gaffer' of blocking GEG bill
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/686644

Posted by Unfair > 2023-11-16 10:34 | Report Abuse

GEG block not good news? Why down instead?

Posted by Unfair > 2023-11-16 10:40 | Report Abuse

Falling sales only affect BAT not Carlsberg for example is it fair?