What you share is so true about BAT until I am so messed up, I am paralyzed with tactics and never truly get anywhere. Thanks for the straight talk and comments…again. You're truly appreciated.
@5354_ I’d conducted BAT selloff entirely, twice. First instance, Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell from grace or had a complete meltdown and the opportunity to buy its shares from late Dec, 2022 until Jan 3, 2023 at a price range between usd126 and usd105.10. Sold some of its shares in Sept, 2023 at a price range between usd278.40 and usd273.40. Second instance, NVidia (NVDA) stock price had a bad time last month and I didn’t hesitate to grab some shares at a price range between usd428 and usd408. Sold majority of its shares a few days ago at usd499.25.
To those who bought at RM10+ saying this was multi-decade support floor that will never be broken, when I said it can fall below RM9, looks like we are there now and sad that those who averaged down are now in clear negative territory and will find their losses now getting more permanent. Time is the enemy of inferior, declining EPS stocks. The longer you hold, the bigger your losses become.
RM8.99 is not a surprise at all several months back. RM7.99 is not a surprise either in next 12-36 months time, depending on how badly next QR looks like.
It's business EPS and DPS was already shrinking many years ago, long before GEG even become material. One is business, the other is talk mostly. Business matters.
So many tried to pick bottom here. Some one said 9.15 ... for a short while, it held ... then, someone bought big at 9.04 ... for a couple of days, it looks like it held ... then, someone said support is 9 / 8.99 ... for a day, it held ... now 8.94 ... and still downtrending.
So many heroes ... just make sure you don't average down in a downtrend ... then, you go to zero faster.
Nevertheless, downtrend are incredibly volatile ... it can go down for many, many, many days and suddenly, in just 1 or 2 days, all that losses disappear ... very hard to predict.
@tnang, hard to say for now if RM9 will become strong resistance. Normally, I like to see price fall, then rise and test RM9. Depending on its price and volume, we may be lucky and be able to see if RM9 is indeed the new resistance or not. For now, can't tell yet.
I won't worry too much. As I write this, S&P500 is green. If lucky, then, maybe tomorrow Bursa closes in green and majority odds, BAT might halt its downtrend for a day or two ...
But if Bursa tomorrow closes green and BAT closes red ... then different story ...
@MOBA, actually for those who bought at 50 and today is worth 9, their loss is limited, if they didn't average down. E.g. if one spent RM10k at 50, and didn't average down, the current value = RM1.8k and loss = RM8.2k.
Whereas, compare to another investor where every 10% drop, they average down. They would have averaged down 16 times. 50 > 45 > 40.5 > 36.5 > 32.8 > 29.5 > 26.6 > 23.9 > 21.5 > 19.4 > 17.4 > 15.7 > 14.1 > 12.7 > 11.4 > 10.3 > 9.3. If initial spend is 10k and each time average down by 10k, by now, they have spent RM170k. Total outlay = RM170k. Total shares = 8993 (bought more at lower price). Average cost = 18.9. At current price of RM9, their loss is smaller % (18.9 - 9) / 18.9 = 52% loss. However, the 52% loss is applied to a much larger base. In RM terms, loss = RM89,061!!!
In other words, if you do not average down, your loss is limited to only RM8.2k! But if you blindly average down every 10%, your loss is now RM89k! Those who average down in a losing stock lose more than 10 times those who do nothing.
The morale of the story is this - be highly selective of the stock that you average down. It must be a growth stock or a stock that will recover, with the passage of time.
When a stock has history of declining over the past 10 years like BAT, the more time you give BAT, the lower its price. That kind of stock is NOT a suitable candidate for averaging down.
In fact, BAT is a wealth destroyer mathematically speaking, when its price keeps falling the past 10 years. What is going to turn this stock around?
So, those who understand the maths of averaging down knows with certainty that if traders here who averaged down and haven't sold a single share, they are sitting on larger and larger losses.
Dividendguy willing to share his share investment experience here is kind of nice but I m less pessimitic at BAT for next 3 years due to the next 2 quarter profit level should go up to 60 million n above by regain market share in Vape. By the way, what are the two most heavily invested stocks in your portfolio in 2023 until now??
Of course, it’s so painful for your overall financial wealth to say the least if you’d bought BAT shares at a price higher than rm50 then DCA and still holding on with diamond hands until now. Such investment or trading methodology/strategy mustn’t be applied to businesses that have been underperforming annually. Nonetheless, opportunity will appear when least expected so always be vigilant and on the lookout for any signs of revival or turnaround, quarterly.
I don't want to disappoint you but I did nudge up the price a little bit by rm0.06 with my FOMO purchases from rm8.99 to rm9.05 and I'm happy to report that rm9.00 was not a stronk resistance level.
I'll respond to a comment made about HEIM stock. Q3 EPS FY'23 28.91 & Q3 EPS FY'22 35.99 My amateur math is plain and simple (use calculator and not my small brain cells) ;- ((35.99 - 28.91) / 35.99) * 100% = 19.67% reduction so am expecting HEIM stock price to capitulate from selling pressure accordingly.
GEG has died a natural death. To reinstate GEG the government will have to amend the Federal Constitution principally Article 8 of the constitution which provides for equality under the law. To do this will be impossible because it affects fundamental rights. To interpret GEG any other way will be absurd because a person born in 2006 can smoke freely but a person born after 2007 will be subjected to a fine or even jail time. This is clearly against the principles of everybody being treated equally under any Laws
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Donator
1,133 posts
Posted by Donator > 2023-11-21 16:51 | Report Abuse
next week get dividend and all use to buy more