EPS fall is slowing down, but still falling. - Peak EPS in 2015 at 312 sen. - 2 years later (2017), halved at 169 sen. - 3 years later (2020), halved again at 83 sen. My guess is 5 years later (2025), halved again at 40-45 sen. That would value the company at a P/E of 15 at around RM6-7.
As a single Vuse is roughly equal to a dozen cig packs, BAT revenue will still contract for many years to come, and with it, its EPS. Until its Revenues and EPS stabilizes (which can take many years) and turn around, this stock is not ripe for investing yet. This may only happen after 2030 or so ... wait for its next few annual reports.
Hey DividendGuy67, Aside from BAT...which I got out at 13$...Still very much uncertain about BAT going forward!? @May I know your thoughts about HLCapital...which is part of the HLeong group. Thank you very much...
@1288, a couple of months ago, I penned this here. At the time, both BAT and HLIND were trading at similar levels at 9.17 or thereabouts. I shared my view then that it's probably better to swap BAT to HLIND, because both pays high dividends, but one shows declining EPS vs the other rising EPS.
Today, BAT is 9.02. HLIND is 9.40.
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To long term BAT lovers. Today, BAT closes 9.16. Another stock that closes similarly is HLIND 9.17.
If you are not a trader and you think you'll be holding BAT for "long term" (e.g. several years), you may want to consider partial / full swap.
Over the past 8 years, BAT EPS dropped from 318 sen (2015) down to 68 sen (2023 Est). Over the same period, HLIND Net Cash grew from 275m (2016) up to 1600+ million (2023 Est).
HLIND pays a generally rising dividend from 29 sen (2015) to 57 sen (2023 Est). BAT dividends shrunk from 312 sen (2015) down to 67 sen (2023 Est).
Think about the difference. You don't need to be a Grade A+ trader like MOBA to win. Buy HLIND when the price is low. Do nothing and relax. In a few years time, check up BAT prices again and compare your HLIND holdings. Odds are good that you'll win with HLIND.
As usual, nothing is certain in investing. Hence, don't bet more than 5% of your investment portfolio on any 1 idea.
I have written about both HLIND and BAT here: HLIND: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/02/hlind.html BAT: http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/bat.html
One is simple to understand how we make money over the longer term. The other - I have no clue how shareholders will make money longer term.
Time is the chief enemy for a sunset stock like this - new lows in the past, new low today, the longer you hold, the more you average down, more new lows in the future. Don't fight the trend.
If switch to Maybank or HLI like DividendGuy suggested, now already earn money. I suspect the one who always making buy call don't really own BAT. He is here to mislead people.
Hey Invest8912, you may be right on people call a buy buy do not have the stock. Maybe also they may have the stock and biased for it... We have to be careful.... And DividendGuy has good intentions for everyone... Invest carefully everyone...
Hey WilliamH, I am personally scared to buy BAT... Due to so many uncertainties, I song buy BAT again.. I am happy sold out at 13 2 years ago... As dividendguy67 says, why buy X falling knife
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
troy88
2,574 posts
Posted by troy88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse
May slowly go down south to RM8 or below. Dividend 2 years ago same period was 27 cents. Since then dropped almost half to 15 cents. Good luck..