@Bf Siau: I certainly hope many punters will start accumulating BAT shares now. BAT has already weathered many bad news for the past few months such as EPF exiting as substantial shareholder & being kicked out as a KLCI component. All the while it is still running a profitable business & paying very good dividends.
Richard Siau you must complain to BAT itself is my advise to prevent CJ drop until you lose everything. Just ask why share keep dropping yet managements not aware.
maybe the warrants just issued for those creditor and primary shareholder instead of retail investor which will convert to primary shares go to the issuer..lol
@cityhunter judging fron the closing prices recently, it is obvious this counter is manipulated... it will go down to 23 if the syndicate want it to...
Then CJ should worth 0.005 sen or worthless soon. No point your question earlier since you know the answer.
Richard Siau does anyone know why bat cj is so low compared to the mother share? 22/01/2018 08:48
Richard Siau @cityhunter judging fron the closing prices recently, it is obvious this counter is manipulated... it will go down to 23 if the syndicate want it to... 22/01/2018 22:04
9M17 CNP of RM419.5m (-19%) was below expectations as sales failed to pick up despite better sentiment. 43.0 sen interim dividend is within expectations. Despite improving legal market share, affordability issue had likely remained a concern. The group have also reintroduced the cheaper “Rothmans” brand of cigarettes to appeal to the price sensitive segment. Post-results, we cut our FY17E/FY18E earnings assumptions by 9.3%/4.3% on lower sales assumptions. Maintain OUTPERFORM with a lower TP of RM45.00.
9M17 core earnings fell below expectations. 9M17 core net earnings of RM419.5m was below expectations, accounting for 67%/66% of our/consensus estimates. The negative deviation was due to lower-thanexpected sales as better consumer sentiment failed to translate to better demand. An interim dividend of 43.0 sen was declared for YTD dividend of 126.0 sen. We deem this as broadly within our 214.0 sen estimate for FY17 as the group typically pay higher dividends during its last quarter.
YoY, 9M17 sales of RM2.3b declined by 21% from a 16% drop in sales volume, resulting from high levels of illicit trade. Discounting the restructuring expenses incurred in the move towards a pure trading business model, the group’s core EBIT declined by 20% to RM553.2m but saw slightly better margins at 24.0% (+0.4 pts) as its manufacturing facilities previously operated at non-optimal levels. The decrease in operating profits further translated to a 19% decline in core net profits at RM419.5m.
QoQ, 3Q17 sales fell slightly by 2% to RM757.3m, despite an improvement in the legal market share to 44% (from 41% in 2Q17). We believe this is due to the affordability issue of non-essential spending still being a concern for consumers, even with supposedly better sentiment readings. Core EBIT margins was lower by 0.8pts to 25.3% to RM191.5m (-5%) as a result of higher marketing spend on the reintroduction of the new “Rothmans” brand which launched in early Oct 2017. Core earnings posted at RM147.5m, which was only weaker by 3% from a lower effective tax rate during the quarter (22.1% from 24.1% in 2Q17).
Better legal market share. The latest data on illicit market share showed the second consecutive quarter of decline to 56%. However, demand still remained soft in spite of better consumer confidence. We believe that this is partly due to tobacco products still being relatively costly for consumers amidst the general rise in the cost of living. Management also cautioned of newer forms of packaging for illegal products that may be more difficult to detect (i.e. fake tax stamps). While talks are ongoing with the regulators for the approval to distribute more affordable, smaller pack sizes, the group has moved to reintroduce an affordable alternative offering via the “Rothmans” brand, which was previously a flagship product, to generate better sales (refer to overleaf). As the group has effectively been transformed into a pure trading company, we believe visibility in margins should at least provide confidence in the group’s performance amidst challenging demand outlook.
Post-results, we cut our FY17E/FY18E earnings assumption by 9.3%/4.3% on lower sales assumption. We also adjust our dividend expectations to 192.0 sen (from 214.0 sen) on reflection of the weaker forecast.
Maintain to OUTPERFORM with a lower Target Price to RM45.00 (from RM47.00, previously). This is based on an unchanged 20.0x FY18E PER (-1SD 5-year mean) which we believe is still fair due to the improving legal market share outlook. Despite only 5.6% capital gain, we believe the OUTPERFORM call is warranted given the strong dividend gains of 5.2% for the stock for FY18.
Hard to sue them bcoz they have a disclaimer at the bottom of the last page of their document that stated:
"This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may read this document. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad and its associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies."
They provide data and tp just for reference...dia cari makan saja...they are not god...you pay off for your greedy instead....and now wanna sue somo...lol..hahaha
IB numbers make senses to me, i think it is the syndicates manipulating the prices, they should be holding lots of bats by now n eventually will drive the price up
@why_ You have to understand the market situation...come on, this is not a penny stocks...the price wouldnt up and down sharply without any reason...IB rates RM45 base on what reason im not sure,but as a smart investor, finding out the reason behind is your fully responsibility...unless u r too much money and just simply treat this counter like a penny stocks...lol...
No worry aunties and uncles, ladies and gentlements, besides waiting the price back to your target, you may just try your luck to invest BAT code 4162 and strike for 4D...lol...no homework needed,just park your car, write down the number on a piece of paper, q up and waiting for your turn....wahaha
We receive a lot of scam email everyday!!! but believe or not, or wasting time to open it and read it or not thats our call...u can blame but obviously there have some limitation....u may try to discuss with your lawyer and seeking for further action...lol
CityHuntEr is it how your lawyers make money from you? Why cannot bypass them or find cheaper 1?
CityHuntEr Lol...u have money to invest BAT and now u said u r poor...lol...or u just invest for 1 lot??lol, in case yes i advice you just forget about it...lol 24/01/2018 12:17
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
risktransformer
2,031 posts
Posted by risktransformer > 2018-01-20 18:54 | Report Abuse
@Bf Siau: I certainly hope many punters will start accumulating BAT shares now. BAT has already weathered many bad news for the past few months such as EPF exiting as substantial shareholder & being kicked out as a KLCI component. All the while it is still running a profitable business & paying very good dividends.