Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:01 | Report Abuse

Time will tell and don’t hide or disappear

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:03 | Report Abuse

Karma karma karma the 2P

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:06 | Report Abuse

Cyclical business stocks are short term gain and long term stagnation

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:09 | Report Abuse

Buy at your high risk stock not beneficial especially cyclical business stocks like o&g stock

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:12 | Report Abuse

High crack spread margin is always short term especially cyclical business o&g stocks

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:15 | Report Abuse

Low cap stocks easily manipulated especially HY
It’s happened few years back

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:17 | Report Abuse

Short sighter will always looser due to mislead by the scammer and their cheerleader

Posted by BoomBerg > 2022-05-08 02:18 | Report Abuse

Always be

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-05-08 08:21 | Report Abuse

err whats happening here?

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 08:22 | Report Abuse

Shandong-based independent refinery buying Russian crude discounted $35 per barrel against Brent crude

MAY 4 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/4f277a24-d681-421a-9c94-29d6fd448b20

China’s independent refiners have been discreetly buying Russian oil at steep discounts as western countries suspend their own purchases and explore potential embargoes because of the war in Ukraine.

An official at a Shandong-based independent refinery said it had not publicly reported deals with Russian oil suppliers since the Ukraine war started in order to avoid attracting scrutiny and being hit by US sanctions.

The official added that the refinery had taken over some of the purchase quota for Russian crude from state-owned commodity trading firms, which are seen to represent Beijing and have mostly declined to sign new supply contracts.

Many western companies are self-sanctioning or struggling to secure the insurance, shipping or financing needed to buy Russia’s commodity exports, raising expectations that energy-hungry China will step in and buy the unsold barrels.

The purchases from China’s independent refineries reveal how some importers are bypassing traditional routes to access cheap Russian oil, helping Beijing maintain a low profile as the west barrages Moscow with sanctions.


Brian Gallagher, head of investor relations at Belgian tanker group Euronav, said the consolidation of Russia oil on to larger ships for transport to Asia was “unusual”. But with Urals discounted $35 per barrel against Brent crude, he added that Chinese refineries were motivated to buy.

............


Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company Limited (SHPC) is a state-owned enterprise based in Linyi County, Shandong Province, China.

http://hrc.com.my/shandong-hengyuan-petrochemical.html

...............

22 Dec 2021 - COSA agreement between HRC & Shell to buy their Brent crude is over

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-05-08 09:23 | Report Abuse

Even USd 10 already considered high for crack spread. Now is USd 27. Tge sanction against Russia will even push it higher. That is why I buy HR and it cw.

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-05-08 09:31 | Report Abuse

Just crack spread alone will generate amazing profit. If HR able to get Russia cgeap cryde oil, Q2 profit will be even astonished especially domestic demand also peaked in conjunction with Raya holiday and boarder reopening. If HY has signed purchasing pact with Russia before invasion of Ukraine, they might allow to continue to buy Russia crude oil based on the what China companies response. Anyway, this is just guessing. Buy the crack spread which is profit propeller is not guessing. It is really super high and might last till Russia and Ukraine reach a peaceful pact.

Posted by jackfruit > 2022-05-08 09:46 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow sure break 7.00 level. Even at 6.00+ HengYuan is very much under under under value. Inmagine crack spread is historical high. Jet fuel and diasel are currently short supply. Russia-Ukrain war will not stop by end of the year by knowning USA ego. HengYuan share price will fly to moon. Anybody on board HengYuan will be rewarded with strong gain. This time Huat Chai liao. Only those detractors will miss the chance to Huat Chai. Cheer to all HengYuan shareholders.

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-08 09:48 | Report Abuse

Wow the chicken little is so determined to shatter the confidence in HY investors so they can go in at cheaper price. Their motive is very very clear.

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-05-08 09:56 | Report Abuse

Yala. All those bloody hell wil delete post especialy d p72

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-05-08 09:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-05-08 09:58 | Report Abuse

Y tis bloody hell never answer where is mpi 40? When tech rebound mpi to 40, then he wil come ouy to claim credit.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 10:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

i see at least 2 million barrels additional sold in Q1 22'vs Q4 21'

leave readers to do the maths on implication on bottom line

Posted by pang72 > May 8, 2022 10:13 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/some-petrol-stations-run-out-su...

FIRST TIME HAPPENS OIL SHORTAGE IN MSI

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-05-08 10:26 | Report Abuse

The people who 唱衰 hengyuan are the ones who are late to the party la. They know HY are going up so they want the newbies to sell cheaper to them so they can join the party.

Posted by valueguru > 2022-05-08 11:00 | Report Abuse

Another interesting read "Oil margins to help Reliance sustain its premium valuation" . Quote from the article: "The Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) - a gauge of regional refining margins - rose to $8.2 per barrel in the March 2022 quarter, compared with $6.1 per barrel in the previous quarter driven by tight crude and product market conditions, further accentuated by disruption by the Russia-Ukraine conflict." and "The boost to earnings from refining is likely to continue for the first quarter of FY23 thanks to regional GRM currently trading at a record level of $26/barrel. GRM is likely to remain elevated as one million barrels per day (mbpd) of Russian refinery capacity has gone offline due to the conflict. Also, about 3 mbpd of global capacity is shut due to the pandemic."

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/oil-margins-to-help-reliance-sustain-its-premium-valuation/articleshow/91388005.cms

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:03 | Report Abuse

USD 26/brl....LOL!

i really hope readers can do the simple maths

Posted by valueguru > 2022-05-08 11:04 | Report Abuse

As mentioned in my post, I don't expect much impact on March quarter result (I might be wrong) but rather the June quarter will be interesting.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:06 | Report Abuse

@valuegure, I have data for Feb & March - it shot up significantly


Posted by valueguru > May 8, 2022 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

As mentioned in my post, I don't expect much impact on March quarter result (I might be wrong) but rather the June quarter will be interesting.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:08 | Report Abuse

Remember i was saying margin is shocking it its unfolding earlier..it will come in news... i was aware that it shot to 28 USD/brl last week itself

The Feb & March refining margin spike is contributed by Diesel & other refined products

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:11 | Report Abuse

agree pang72, no matter what the Q1 results, Hengyuan share price will be forward looking for Q2 and ahead..

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-05-08 11:17 | Report Abuse

interesting. some of my posts yesterday got deleted, and i cannot post for a few hours. haters much?

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-05-08 11:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:22 | Report Abuse

many investors have phobia of hengyuan due to 2017 experience like sslee etc...they hate the stock thinking management lied to them...

the truth is its the Hurricane'fault... as fast as it came...it left

the price from RM 17 immediately came down as the refineries were back in production after halting temporarily for the Hurricane in US

Now, can anyone immediately help to tap the 3rd largest refiner in the world - russia to Europe?

Another Important fact to remember is that the crack spread shot up higher than the 2017 Hurricane Harvey level even before the war started simply due shortage of refinery (ESG issues as valueguru highlighted) and demand was picking up after covid

Bloody 2 years no additional refining capacity were made but existing ones ceased production

Posted by valueguru > 2022-05-08 11:35 | Report Abuse

@probability, I track years of daily crack spread data from reuters (minus weekends and holidays). What I observe is Jan and Feb have been higher than past few years average (most likely due to lifting of pandemic restrictions). The real spike started in March due to the war. In the article I just posted, it mentioned that analysts forecast of average GRM USD12 for this year but this was before the war. Though GRM plays a big role for refiners, another area is how they run their operations (hedging, cost management, maintenance etc). For HYR, I believe their main weakness is hedging (and hopefully I'm wrong here!!!). This time round because the GRM has risen so high, I hope this will negate any hedging loss, if not increase the gain!

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:37 | Report Abuse

yup, totally agree and aware

Posted by valueguru > May 8, 2022 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

@probability, I track years of daily crack spread data from reuters (minus weekends and holidays). What I observe is Jan and Feb have been higher than past few years average (most likely due to lifting of pandemic restrictions). The real spike started in March due to the war. In the article I just posted, it mentioned that analysts forecast of average GRM USD12 for this year but this was before the war. Though GRM plays a big role for refiners, another area is how they run their operations (hedging, cost management, maintenance etc). For HYR, I believe their main weakness is hedging (and hopefully I'm wrong here!!!). This time round because the GRM has risen so high, I hope this will negate any hedging loss, if not increase the gain!

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 11:46 | Report Abuse

Just for everyone info the average gross refining margin Hengyuan captured during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 - Q3 2017 (peak EPS exceeding RM 1), was only 10 USD/brl

this is because the spike in margin due to Hurricane Harvey was a temporarily blip in the qtr (less than a month)

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:09 | Report Abuse

Main catalyst for spike in crack spread is putin's war.I say putin not russia cos most russians oppose the war.

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:11 | Report Abuse

Putin overrides reopening of borders in the case of hrc.Sad but true.So watch his health.

Posted by valueguru > 2022-05-08 12:14 | Report Abuse

@probability you brought up a good point. I remember some people used this to extrapolate into many quarters of high profit but it was really just a temporary event. Many people were caught when the price fell. This time round it's structural but yet people see it as temporary!

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:18 | Report Abuse

If war last forever then it will be structural in nature.Else it cannot be.

Posted by Yawn.... Zzzzz > 2022-05-08 12:18 | Report Abuse

WAH! WHY HENGYUAN FORUM VERY LIVELY THEN OTHER COUNTER LEH!!!
OKOK TOMOLO HOOT SHORT 9 E!

Posted by Yawn.... Zzzzz > 2022-05-08 12:22 | Report Abuse

Why nobody going to HOOT SHORT 9 PETRONM

Posted by Yawn.... Zzzzz > 2022-05-08 12:23 | Report Abuse

And PETDAG geh.......?

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 12:23 | Report Abuse

valueguru point is valid, for structural change in margin to 10 USD/brl average you do not need the war to sustain

Posted by klee > May 8, 2022 12:18 PM | Report Abuse

If war last forever then it will be structural in nature.Else it cannot be.

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-05-08 12:24 | Report Abuse

can anyone also inform apple to short tomorrow, i am so worried apple is not informed

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 12:25 | Report Abuse

once bitten, twice shy phenomenon...but time is in our side

Posted by valueguru > May 8, 2022 12:14 PM | Report Abuse

@probability you brought up a good point. I remember some people used this to extrapolate into many quarters of high profit but it was really just a temporary event. Many people were caught when the price fell. This time round it's structural but yet people see it as temporary!

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-05-08 12:26 | Report Abuse

Question now is how soon the sanction can be lifted. Even war ended doesn't mean the aanction will be lifted immediately. In addition, there are not many new investments into refinery due to ESG issues. All these are positive for HY.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 12:29 | Report Abuse

that is my logic too...until people like Putin is exterminated from Russia, Europe & US will never buy their oil

Posted by cactus81 > May 8, 2022 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

Question now is how soon the sanction can be lifted. Even war ended doesn't mean the aanction will be lifted immediately. In addition, there are not many new investments into refinery due to ESG issues. All these are positive for HY.

Posted by probability > 2022-05-08 12:38 | Report Abuse

any country keep threatening wanting to use nuclear weapon, NATO will slowly choke them till they weaken

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-05-08 12:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by blackgold77 > 2022-05-08 12:45 | Report Abuse

DickyMe

RM1.69 for which call warrant ya?

Please inform thanks

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:45 | Report Abuse

Biden has hinted he wants putin to go.Ques is how soon or will it ever happen?

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:46 | Report Abuse

Gloves feed on covid19.Refiners feed on war.

Posted by klee > 2022-05-08 12:48 | Report Abuse

Those half baked who shouted pump n dumb i ask you.How many bursa stocks can sustain rise forever?