Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 09:34 | Report Abuse

By right is like this. By left HY can be higher than PetronM too. Haiyoh. Correct?


BobAxelrod

FYI, must it be lower????....and 4.38 to 4.55 is nearly 20c.....No?

1 minute ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-10 09:35 | Report Abuse

Petron Phili released their Q3, which means PetronM would be releasing soon, probably in next 1-2 weeks. As usual, earlier than HY by a week........

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-11-10 09:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 09:42 | Report Abuse

Hope is not facts n figures leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 09:43 | Report Abuse

What facts n figures pun pakai Hope analysis one kah. Dont mislead ppl with Hope analysis leh. If dunno keep quite lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-10 09:44 | Report Abuse

People use "Hope" to buy Magnum 4D....hehehe

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-11-10 09:48 | Report Abuse

I do not like to talk bad about Petronm.

Hengyuan is a complex refinery plant, the yield on diesel is higher because the fuel oil produced can be converted to diesel again.

Petronm is a simple refinery plant, the yield on diesel is lower because the crack spread margin of fuel oil is very low and the fuel oil cannot be converted to diesel.

Since the crack spread of diesel is very high compared against gasoline, hence the PAT of Hengyuan in Q3 2022 should be good.

My 2 cents comment.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-11-10 09:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-11-10 10:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 10:22 | Report Abuse

cut contra loss hengyuan at 4.40-4.42

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 10:27 | Report Abuse

Petron corp release Q3 result, profit slump more than 80% Q2 2022 to Q3 2022 and decrease 50% Q3 2021 on Q3 2022

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-remains-on-track-to-recovery-reports-p8-2-billion-net-income-in-first-nine-months/

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-reports-strong-2022-q1-results/

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-11-10 10:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 10:30 | Report Abuse

Whatever calculation on profit become useless now as Petron corp, a holding company of PetronM already release slumping Q3 result.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 10:32 | Report Abuse

With petron corp release Q3 result, now, better use wise windom to project what will hengyuan upcoming Q3 result !!!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-10 10:35 | Report Abuse

It's PetronM's fault....

i3lurker

so Bob viagra pumped to 4.45 and drooooped back to 4.41 ???

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-10 10:36 | Report Abuse

Maybe even DAP's fault....

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-11-10 10:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-11-10 10:44 | Report Abuse

2021 PAT Hy vs petron
Q1 16m vs 103m
Q2 -69m vs 42m
Q3 -54m vs 32m
Q4 180m vs 60.5m

2022
Q1 47m vs 106m
Q2 667m vs 183m

Cant see any relation lei

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-10 10:51 | Report Abuse

Should be Biden fault to press down gasoline and heating oil price for his own agenda of winning mid term erection.

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-11-10 10:51 | Report Abuse

Market expect petron Q3 very poor
Is based on net profit of petron Philippine mah
Hy and petron use different operations mah
They similar in product selling price only mah

Btw, petron Q3 maybe not as bad as market expected lei

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-11-10 10:57 | Report Abuse

Eh, isn't that is a good profit for Petron and i don't see any plunge in the profit though! What do you mean by worse>

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-10 10:58 | Report Abuse

Petron’s operating income stood strong at P16.5 billion, 23% more than 2021’s P13.4 billion. These improvements, however, were tempered by the increase in financing cost due to the unprecedented strengthening of US dollars against the peso and the successive hikes in interest rates.

Most likely at Petron Corp level the reduce profit in Peso is cause by abt 1 billion USD borrowing result in increase in financing cost due to the unprecedented strengthening of US dollars against the peso and the successive hikes in interest rates.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 11:03 | Report Abuse

Sslee

Bear in mind, what happen in Petron may recur in hengyuan as hengyuan big borrowing cost mostly is in USD denominated

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-11-10 11:03 | Report Abuse

In addition, starting March 31, 2012, the Group’s exposure to foreign currency risks also arise from US dollar-denominated sales and purchases, principally of crude oil and petroleum products, of Petron Malaysia whose transactions are in Malaysian ringgit, which are subsequently converted into US dollar before ultimately translated to equivalent Philippine peso amount using applicable rates for the purpose of consolidation.

Kesian petron corp kena twice usd loss r

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-10 11:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 11:04 | Report Abuse

Petron corp Q3 result is 80% decrease if compared to Q2, and is 50% decrease if compared to conrespnding Q2 2021

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 11:10 | Report Abuse

Just be careful for those have high expectation on upcoming hengyuan Q3 result, expecially to those holding call warrant. The earliest indicator earning warming by Petron corp slumping Q3 result cannot simply ignore.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 11:24 | Report Abuse

Wah. Sell call kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


hng33

Petron corp Q3 result is 80% decrease if compared to Q2, and is 50% decrease if compared to conrespnding Q2 2021

19 minutes ago


hng33

Just be careful for those have high expectation on upcoming hengyuan Q3 result, expecially to those holding call warrant. The earliest indicator earning warming by Petron corp slumping Q3 result cannot simply ignore.

13 minutes ago

Posted by probability > 2022-11-10 11:25 | Report Abuse

petron corp would have huge impact from gasoline price dip at the end of qtr from their retail segment, you cannot compare with pure refiner like HY

below remains

Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis

(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR

PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-10 11:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-11-10 11:33 | Report Abuse

It cannot be too far from below:
..................................

Posted by probability > Oct 7, 2022 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 43.6/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 977 million MYR ....


PBT = 897 million
PAT = 681 million
EPS = 2.27

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 11:34 | Report Abuse

Every single retail petrol station sell both gasoline and diessel. Both gasoline crack and diessel crack need to average to yield final profit margin. Petron corp Q3 result is 80% decrease if compared to Q2, and is 50% decrease if compared to conrespnding Q2 2021

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-10 11:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 11:36 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind, what happen in Petron huge USD borrowing cost may also will incur in hengyuan as hengyuan big borrowing cost mostly also in USD denominated

Posted by probability > 2022-11-10 11:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Oct 2, 2022 9:21 PM | Report Abuse

Malaysia Diesel output (MT):

Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929
August: 1,633,000

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:09 | Report Abuse

no red wave in america..................malaysia got red wave meh?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-10 12:09 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Look like I was presented with opportunity to further average down my Petron Malaysia.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:10 | Report Abuse

elections very difficult to predict

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:15 | Report Abuse

opportunity to further average down or opportunity to make money....................which one is better, sslee?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 12:18 | Report Abuse

Many so call sifu tend to have buy call on stock they posses ahead. Self-claim sifu will have many buy call when share on uptrend at different high level. Lets take example, supermax have buy call at RM 4.8, sifu make continue buy call when supermax uptrend to RM 6, 8 , 10, 15 etc. Setting big high target price to justify his call. But when blame by follower, these sifu will claim he make good buy call at RM 4.8. but, simply ignore other high level. The worse thing is sifu never make sell call target price even TA prompted warrant. Sifu will onlyy hint to hold longer for big profit in next 6 month time which tend to fail later.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 12:23 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh you mean sifu sifu conned ppl kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


hng33

Many so call sifu tend to have buy call on stock they posses ahead. Self-claim sifu will have many buy call when share on uptrend at different high level. Lets take example, supermax have buy call at RM 4.8, sifu make continue buy call when supermax uptrend to RM 6, 8 , 10, 15 etc. Setting big high target price to justify his call. But when blame by follower, these sifu will claim he make good buy call at RM 4.8. but, simply ignore other high level. The worse thing is sifu never make sell call target price even TA prompted warrant. Sifu will onlyy hint to hold longer for big profit in next 6 month time which tend to fail later.

4 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 12:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 12:26 | Report Abuse

Ya lor. How can you know even many claimed they did a survey said they have won the election like Rafizi leh. Trump saud red wave pun not very red leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


brightsmart

elections very difficult to predict

14 minutes ago

brightsmart

no red wave in america..................malaysia got red wave meh?

15 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 12:28 | Report Abuse

You agreed what Ular cakap semalam kah. Ada yang cakap loan in RM leh. Many not agreed leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


hng33

Bear in mind, what happen in Petron huge USD borrowing cost may also will incur in hengyuan as hengyuan big borrowing cost mostly also in USD denominated

50 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-10 12:30 | Report Abuse

Another bad news leh. Impairment on trade receivable worth tens of million every qtr leh. Probably 20 to 40mil this QR leh. Last QR 28mil leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-10 12:47 | Report Abuse

The characteristic of sifu are
1. Setting high target price, but, 90% odds unable to achieve.
2. Buy call at multiple price level, but never have sell call.
3. TA come first, FA is second. But, often is vice versa. Contradicting.
4. Advice to sell all underperform stock to single presume big wining stock to recoup back loss, but, often ended with even bigger loss. Many so call core stock he previous like the most like LCtitan slash half of market value now
5. Self claim very gentleman, but, often get ban from operator

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:54 | Report Abuse

opportunity to further average down.................a good strategy until it is not.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 12:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-10 13:02 | Report Abuse

rafizi survey is part of strategy.