Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-11-29 17:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stevenckheng > 2022-11-29 17:08 | Report Abuse

this one subsidiary ? corporate no money to inject capital ?
https://equity.pitchin.my/businesses/hengyuan-petroleum-sdn-bhd

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:50 | Report Abuse

Pity, big loss RM 2.13

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:51 | Report Abuse

Alrdy give warning ahead, but too bad, many under dennial state

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-11-29 17:51 | Report Abuse

Sifu Probabillity's prediction very chun chun....EPS 2.10+...just that he forgot to put a negative sign infront of it

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:52 | Report Abuse

Warning 1. Petron corp poor earning
Warnings 2 - Petron Malaysia poor earning

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:52 | Report Abuse

Too bad many get trap by sweet talk by many so called sifu

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:54 | Report Abuse

Those in call warrant stand total wipe out. Pity, many refuse to take warnings ahead

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-11-29 17:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 37 minutes ago | Report Abuse

you take out dividend, this stock is trading at 4.50 now

It has delivered EPS even better than what was estimated and yet, purely because of wrong perception on the meaning of the two clauses below, market is thinking it will revert back to its earlier earnings.

Cash flow hedge & Cost of hedging reserve

From what i have extracted and studied, these are nothing but the effects of the Refining margin swap contract.

Cash flow hedge (CFH) are basically hedge portions of the RMSC which has been liquidated as of 30th June and awaiting respective physical market transaction to take place to offset these hedging losses.

Whereas, Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is simply the following:

Forward looking Mark-to-market estimate of the difference between the fixed price and the future spot price multiplied by the notional quantity and discounted back to a present value based on a reasonable discount rate determined by the producer.

Even if we assume the RMSC covers complete Gasoline production capacity of 35% yield x 10.6 million, 3.7 million barrels, you are securing the below gross profit after hedging losses or gain.

= 3.7 million x 12.7 USD/brl x 4.45 ex
= 209 million MYR.....(1)

No matter what the figures are reported on CFH & COHR, they are purely trying to show the ineffectiveness / effectiveness of the hedging but the profit contribution remains the same. (SERIOUSLY, THINK ABOUT THIS)

The CFH shows how much 'opportunity for greater profit than 209 million / per qtr' is confirmed loss while COHR shows potential loss if the scenario prolongs indefinitely for the balance notional value.

For every negative value on CFH & COHR that will take place, there will be equally higher gross profit in future physical market transaction where after deducting the hedging loss anticipated, you will report the same 209 million for gasoline per qtr.


For the balance refined products diesel, jet fuel and others (10.7 - 3.7 = 7 million barrels per qtr) , you have the following:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.12 x 7.77)
= (23.18 + 2.70 + 0.93)/ (0.65)
= US $ 41.2 / brl

Gross Profit :

= (7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $41.2/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.283 Billion MYR........(2)


Total gross profit after hedging gain / loss: (1) + (2)
= 1.483 Billion MYR

EPS will be exceeding RM 3 per QTR

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-11-29 17:56 | Report Abuse

This is classic

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 17:59 | Report Abuse

Fallen in love to self calculation, under self denial state despite many warning sign ahead. Stubborn and insistance to keep continuing post unverified calculations, trapping more and more innocent people to support. Pity

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 18:01 | Report Abuse

so what u think...........u think probability will disappear or probability will say Q3 bad and Q4 $3 eps?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 18:01 | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3310905

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 18:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 18:05 | Report Abuse

Pity too to those subcriber, hope they claim back their subscription fees ya

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:05 | Report Abuse

Ular gardening pun ada received msg on HY qtr report leh. So cham leh. Minus 213 sen kah. no eyes liao. The facts and figures turned up is fake leh. Esok mau pecah rm4.20 liao kah. Ular also cannot help you all liao leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by gohkimhock > 2022-11-29 18:06 | Report Abuse

See whether you guys can check back my last post in this HY forum and learn from my advice..

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SinGor > 2022-11-29 18:07 | Report Abuse

This Type of Yo-Yo earnings will shrink any 2-Tonne Nut into a Green Pea

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-11-29 18:09 | Report Abuse

I will not surprise at all if Sifu Probability is taking hours tonight to prepare his Q4 profit projection....

Could be as high as EPS RM4.00.....

All HY shareholders pls dont give up yet.......

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 18:10 | Report Abuse

for 3 months I say analysts do not want to cover HY because analysts do not want to be embarassed.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:14 | Report Abuse

Ok liao. No more pin point siapa is correct or wrong leh. Anyway this is just a tilikan only. Enuf bashing others lah. Only can say no one forced anyone yo follow their tilikan lah. Ok. Haiyoh. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:17 | Report Abuse

If wrong this time then try again next time only. Ok. No one is perfect also leh. Ok boh. Especially those very often kutuk others one leh. Esok mau run road or catch falling kapak is up to you hor. Anyway Ular also cannot catch the falling kapak leh. What a waste leh. Case study punya pasal. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:19 | Report Abuse

Actually why so lousy result anyone can do the post mortem or not. Ular pun want to know leh. Case study must have conclusion also leh. TQ. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:21 | Report Abuse

So the Myth when the price green is good QR is not True. Correct?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-29 18:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-11-29 18:24 | Report Abuse

Petron corp and Petron M alreadg give warnning result ahead. Many investors if take advice should have sell earlier, but too bad many seem trap till now due to continue unverified calculations to show how fantastic uocoming reeult, how different compared to Petronm, how smart hengyuan hedging strategy will be..... misleadingly other to witheld waiting for so call big reward. Too bad, too late now

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-29 18:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-11-29 18:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-11-29 18:28 | Report Abuse

Calling Probability explain rock-bottom 1Bil profit projection

Calling Sslee explain ‘supposed’ HUGE hedging gain (always ask people imagine - now become imaginary gain)

P/s: warn many times these 2 fella BS calculation/explanation..dunno how hedging works simply BS nonstop

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-29 18:29 | Report Abuse

The recorded loss of RM756mil for 3Q 2022 was attributable to adverse refining margin as compared to a more favourable refining margin during 3Q 2021. Adverse refining margin was mainly affected by sharp reduction in cracks especially for Mogas, coupled with higher crude premium incurred as well as higher stockholding losses due to significant drop in product prices during the quarter. These factors led to a net loss for 3Q 2022

MM is right afterall about HRC. I will automatic disappear from HRC forum.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:31 | Report Abuse

Another myth PetronM > HY later we confirm it again after bursa open shop tomolo. Haiyoh. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:32 | Report Abuse

So HY Q3 sudah end liao. Next QR siapa mau tilik again. Boleh submit your TP. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 18:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-11-29 18:36 | Report Abuse

Lastly, where is the so called fat margin fm the high crack spread of Diesel?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-29 18:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-11-29 18:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 18:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-11-29 19:00 | Report Abuse

sslee, what happened to your hedging assets/ liabilities calculations which I didn't even bother to read because there is no foundation to the calculations. every thing is just based on imaginations.

Posted by rchi > 2022-11-29 19:14 | Report Abuse

So much drama at this forum,followed by this anti climax results.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-11-29 19:19 | Report Abuse

Other oil biz (producer/service) all strong profit - refiners suffer heavy loss (crack spread COLLAPSE)

Ready limit down tomorrow

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 19:30 | Report Abuse

Really. LD to your TP Rm3.00 kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Other oil biz (producer/service) all strong profit - refiners suffer heavy loss (crack spread COLLAPSE)

Ready limit down tomorrow

9 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 19:31 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh Sifu Rchi normal only lah. Selalu the few will appear when Bad QR is out lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


rchi

So much drama at this forum,followed by this anti climax results.

16 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 19:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-11-29 19:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-29 19:43 | Report Abuse

qqq3 the diesel market price Q3:
NYMEX Singapore GASOIL PLATTS Futures Historical Data
Time Frame:
Daily
07/01/2022 - 09/30/2022
Highest: 165.88
Lowest: 127.33
Difference: 38.55
Average: 138.86
Change %: -26.98

From HRC Q3:The rise in revenue for the current quarter (“3Q 2022”) was supported by a 51% surge in the market product prices at an average price of USD124 per barrel.

I do not understand the purchased is about USD16 per barrel hihger then market products pricec at average price of USD 124 per barrel.

So most likely Chinaman manipulate reasult and siphon out the money.

MM,
My apology on derivatives realised/unrealised loss/gain calculation. My calculated refining margin swap contracts realised/unrealised gain/loss were based of mogas92 but it look like HRC actually hedged on Diesel and not on Gasoline.

Your wish of limit down tomorrow will be fullfill as prove you are right all this while and I am dead wrong.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-11-29 19:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by birkincollector > 2022-11-29 19:51 | Report Abuse

oh wow....lol Hengyuan always giving bad surprises

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-11-29 19:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-11-29 19:56 | Report Abuse

NYMEX Singapore GASOIL PLATTS Futures Historical Data
Time Frame:
Daily
07/01/2022 - 09/30/2022
Highest: 165.88
Lowest: 127.33
Difference: 38.55
Average: 138.86
Change %: -26.98

From Petron Malaysia on brent crude:
Q3 Dated Brent dropped by 11% to USD 101/barrel in Q3 from the USD 114/barrel in Q2.

So qqq3 the diesel crack spread should be USD (138.86- 101) = USD 37.86 per barrel.

Do I answered your question on where is fat diesel fuel oil margins?