Posted by kl_guy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Fcpo rm4250

Posted by Up_down > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Indonesia CPO production could drop another 3% next year due to El Nino. B40 and local consumption would make another 2 million ton or (3.8% production) reduction in CPO supply to the market.

Posted by Sslee > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

CPO futures close higher amid rising crude oil prices
Source: Business Times Publish date: Fri, 4 Oct 2024, 8:51 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher on Friday amid rising crude oil prices, a dealer said.

Palm oil trader David Ng said the price hike was driven by the expectation of a strong export CPO pace and escalating tension in the Middle East.

"We see support at RM4,180 and resistance at RM4,350," he told Bernama.

At the close, the spot month October 2024 contract surged RM133 to RM4,400 per tonne, November 2024 rose RM123 to RM4,355, while the benchmark December 2024 increased RM118 to RM4,300.

The January 2025 contract gained RM110 to RM4,243 per tonne, February 2025 contract added RM101 to RM4,185, while March 2025 was up by RM92 to RM4,128.

Trading volume was slightly lower at 99,167 lots from 99,355 on Thursday, while open interest fell to 251,725 contracts from 258,051.

The physical CPO price for October South climbed RM120 to RM4,420 per tonne

Posted by Up_down > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Factors pushing CPO price heading north:
1. Indonesia's CPO production dropping due to El Nino
2. China massive stimulus package would spur higher inflation in food segment and induce stocking activities.
3. Indonesia will implement B40 in 2025.

Posted by dompeilee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Where is that siasuay Ytl2023? Joined calvintan in the MIA list?🤣 I on the other hand, SOLD some JTiasa @ 1.18 this morning after re-purchasing not much higher than $1 recently, subsequent to selling at the peak of $1.50!🤗

Posted by Income > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This one blue chip worth buying.

Posted by Income > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Cantekkk

Posted by Up_down > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No surprise if Indonesia government announce to implement B45 and B50 in 2026 & 2027 respectively as long as incentive is available for replacing imported fossil diesel.

Extracted :
The new tests come after the government announced plans to replace all of its fossil diesel imports with locally produced biodiesel as it aims to cut $20 billion off the country’s fuel bill and support production of domestically produced goods.


https://www.astra-agro.co.id/en/2024/05/22/indonesia-starts-test-trial-of-b40-blends-in-generators-and-trucks/

Posted by hng33 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Malaysia’s Palm Oil Council expressed confidence that European rules banning imports linked to deforestation will be suspended, after the European Commission’s proposal for a one-year delay

Posted by dompeilee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Verrrryyyy nice with the 1.18 re-EXIT yesterday! See y'all back below $1.10!

Posted by Sslee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Disclosure On Quarterly Production
JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD
Production figures for current quarter and year to date
Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period
Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 69,463.00
70,529.00
-2.00
158,474.00
150,776.00
5.00

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 343,397.00
359,740.00
-5.00
793,357.00
774,749.00
2.00

Palm Kernel (MT) 15,878.00
16,674.00
-5.00
35,509.00
34,876.00
2.00

TIMBER
Log Production Volume (Cubic Metres) 28,281.00
8,577.00
230.00
77,235.00
48,241.00
60.00

Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter
Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 June 2024
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 69,463.00
47,293.00
47.00

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 343,397.00
233,135.00
47.00

Palm Kernel (MT) 15,878.00
9,948.00
60.00

TIMBER
Log Production Volume (Cubic Metres) 28,281.00
20,884.00
35.00


Remarks :
This announcement is dated 10 October 2024.

Posted by Sslee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Based on previous quarter
CPO 4026 and PK 2266
Revenue from plantation (4026x69463 + 2266×15878)= RM 315,637,586

Posted by Patient Investor > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

24'Q3 CPO Production is almost as 23'Q4
But Average price is ~7% stronger than 23'Q4
23'Q4 company get RM134million FCF
So coming qtr announcement should be ~145million

Pray declare dividend 7sens per share.

Posted by Income > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sslee sir,
Which one is better? Jayatiasa or Inno Or HSPlant? Any comparison data? Thank you

Posted by Sslee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

You can check the monthly FFB production of each company and their cashflow.

Posted by Sslee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BERHAD
Production figures for current quarter and year to date
Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period
Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 40,008.00
36,627.00
9.23
106,363.00
106,727.00
-0.34

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 177,163.00
158,853.00
11.53
466,243.00
457,062.00
2.01

Palm Kernel (MT) 8,660.00
8,239.00
5.11
23,399.00
24,147.00
-3.10

Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter
Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 June 2024
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 40,008.00
32,099.00
24.64

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 177,163.00
140,013.00
26.53

Palm Kernel (MT) 8,660.00
6,952.00
24.57


Remarks :
Figures in changes column are in %.

Posted by Income > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Thanks Sslee Sir

Posted by Patient Investor > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sleep on it, wake up at November for qtr report

Posted by s3phiroth > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I estimated at least 350mil of fcf for fy25 if fcpo and fertiliser price stay around current level.

Posted by Income > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Good

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

RM ’000
Current year-to-date 30 Jun 2024
Corresponding year-to-date 30 Jun 2023
Net cash generated from operating activities 360,029 297,188
Net cash used in investing activities (114,828) (44,406)
Net cash generated from/(used in) financing activities (195,301) (287,106)
Effect of exchange rate changes 18 184
Cash & cash equivalents at beginning of financial period 194,204 228,344
Cash & cash equivalents at end of financial period 244,122 194,204

After paying off the borrowing jayatiasa should have more FCF to pay good dividend

Posted by s3phiroth > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jtiasa is now a net cash company. Currently they have zero immature oil palm tree and less than 5% of the oil palm tree is beyond 20 years, which means the capex on replanting will be minimum for next 5 years. So 350mil of fcf every year is definitely possible! Even if they spend only half of it to pay dividen, the dividen yield still can sky rocket to 175 / 1139 = 15% at today's closing price!

Posted by s3phiroth > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Now they have 283mil of cash and 194mil of total debt, which also means 88mil net cash, with extra 350mil of fcf every year! Oh man, do u guys have any idea how big is the potential of this cash cow?

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The most important to derive up share price is EPS growth. JAYA TIASA CPO production for Q ended Sept is massively increase 47% to 69.4kMT vs. 47.3KMT recorded in perceding Q ended June 2024.

These massive incremental in CPO production volume + elevated CPO above RM 4000 Mt will allow JTIASA to record multiple higher EPS in next Q result

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Expect EPS to deliver above 7 sen in next Q result. Aside increase CPO volume production and evelated CPO RM 4000, Lower price of fertiliser and strength in RM will lower import fertiliser cost will further boost up JTIASA profit margin next Q result

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

JTIASA profit margin is high dependent not only on CPO price, but also on production volume. Therefore, JTIASA monthly and quarterly disclosure on CPO production volume is very important on top of average daily CPO price, both factors need to in line to e ensure QoQ EPS growth.

Take example, another palm stock, TSH, it's monthly and quarterly CPO production volume was significant decrease QoQ, therefore, despite evelated CPO price, TSH upcoming EPS may report decrease earning QoQ.

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Palm tree have seasonal production, under normal circumstances, palm tree have higher production in 2H, lower in 1H. Therefore, higher EPS in 2H need to average down lower EPS in 1H in order to average annual EPS. CPO price also is important factor, but it's beyond control due to fluctuations in global demand, tax barrier, competitor oil etc.

MY estimation EPS 7sen in upcoming Q is to be in line with corresponding last year EPS which coinincidently have about similar CPO production volume and average CPO with +/- factor like strength in RM currency and lower fertiliser price offset by higher labour cost etc. JTIASA also have advantage over cost disel which continue under subsidy for East Msia

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Disclosure On Quarterly Production
TSH RESOURCES BERHAD
Production figures for current quarter and year to date
Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period
Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 46,322.00
67,148.00
-31.02
147,979.00
174,461.00
-15.18

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 184,947.00
257,578.00
-28.20
586,610.00
679,031.00
-13.61

Palm Kernel (MT) 9,910.00
14,333.00
-30.86
31,466.00
35,948.00
-12.47

Rubber (kg) 210,711.00
140,584.00
49.88
426,703.00
281,966.00
51.33

TIMBER
Log Production Volume (Cubic Metres) 7,972.00
5,900.00
35.12
16,760.00
10,634.00
57.61

Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter
Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes
(Amount / %)
30 September 2024 30 June 2024
PLANTATION
Crude Palm Oil (MT) 46,322.00
51,801.00
-10.58

Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT) 184,947.00
205,097.00
-9.82

Palm Kernel (MT) 9,910.00
10,999.00
-9.90

Rubber (kg) 210,711.00
106,764.00
97.36

TIMBER
Log Production Volume (Cubic Metres) 7,972.00
5,262.00
51.50

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Will jayatiasa retest 52 weeks high of 1.53 or low of 0.835?
It will all depend of FFB production and CPO price. (Earning, cash flow and dividend )

Eagerly waiting for quarter ended Sept financial result.
Management already gave a budget FFB production for FYE 30/6/2025 as 1,211,852 MT

Posted by Income > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sslee Sir, The name = Jaya T, surely berjaya one.

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hopefully coming Friday budget will have some good news for plantation companies.

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Every Q, Jtiasa will post quarterly corporate presentation detailing selling price, production volume, palm tree age profile, extraction rate etc
https://jayatiasa.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/JTH_Presentation_3QFY24.pdf

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jtiasa FFB Production Output :

> 2002 started replanting:

July-Sept: FFB MT

2019: 425,801 
2020: 326,209 ( - 23.4 % vs 2019 )
2021: 195,447 ( - 54 % vs 2019 )
2022: 263,948 ( - 38 % vs 2019 )

July 2023 : 110,269
August 2023 : 120,313
Sept 2023 : 129,158

Total = 359,740 ( - 15.5 % vs 2019)


> July 2024 : 101,601
August 2024 : 123,613
Sept 2024 : 118,183

Total = 343,397 ( - 19.4 % vs 2019 )



> Compared 2024 July- September to 2023 is reduced by - 4.54 %


👉 Question 1 ) Peak Production Season is May to November, why FFB production output is reduced ?

1.) More Leased land is terminated ? Or rented land ? Or became Sawah Padi ??

2.) Palm trees r getting old ?? Due to replanting cost ???

3.) Due to Tall Palm trees ( old trees ) labour skill shortage ???

P/S : 2019: 425,801 compared 2024 343,397 is reduced - 19.4 % 😱 in 5 years .

KonLee what Shl be the reduction % in another 5 years ?

4.) How is the replanting schedule being executed, why FFB production output is fluctuated so High ??

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

👉 Question 2 :

July-Sept: FFB MT

2019: 425,801 
2020: 326,209 ( - 23.4 % vs 2019 )
2021: 195,447 ( - 54 % vs 2019 )
2022: 263,948 ( - 38 % vs 2019 )
2023 : 359,740 ( - 15.5 % vs 2019)
2024 : 343,397 ( - 19.4 % vs 2019 )

> From 2019 to 2021 FFB output is reduced by 54 % … 2023 is reduced by 15.4 % ..

Hoho No wander the 2nd Major ( 14 % ) keep disposed shares from August 2023 to July 2024 ( balance 6 % ) , during Price is Uptrend.

>> Coincidentally FFB July- September 2024 Output is started reducing.

KonLee promoted with linking to the 52w high RM 1.53 is Trapped High ke same as in SCIB with TP RM 2.00 by early 2025 ( even the Major over 20 % is on Force Sell ) !!!😱

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha Johnchew123 is NOT me …

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha KonLee paid Macai Kon🐍:

Antifanaticrarcism
Antifanaticrarcism | Joined since 2024-10-17

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jtiasa Another Hidden Risk :

Total Assets is reduced:

2019 : RM 2406 million

2023 : RM 1955 million

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha hope is not following TSH le :

1.) Debt is reduced until Net Cash .
2.) Earlier Top 3 n Top 4 ( 2 companies) keep disposed shares during Uptrend.
3.) after 2 years , CFO n Group MD are resigned on 1/9/2024 .

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jtiasa
Current Ratio 2.73
Debt-Equity (DE) Ratio 0.34
FCF Yield 21.98 %
Revenue QoQ 7.29 %
Revenue YoY 12.96%
Profit QoQ 58.46 %
Profit YoY -73.9 %


Tsh
Current Ratio 2.19
Debt-Equity (DE) Ratio 0.25
FCF Yield 2.14 %
Revenue QoQ 4.18 %
Revenue YoY -1.58%
Profit QoQ 2.77 %
Profit YoY 95.32 %

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha Callvin promoted TSH like to use Inno ..TSH holding Inno shares over 21 % ..

Posted by mf > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

15m ago
Gaza has become a ‘wasteland’, UNRWA chief says

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This counter thesis initially was pure dividend play, and its all about FCF, DPS went from 3.2 to 6, while on the surface the profits went down yoy, its mainly cos of non cash items (impairment of timber division) and with management paying down debt agressively, even if production numbers stay static, the financing cost will go down and with debt repayment completed, the dividends cud easily 2x or 3x, add on potential revision of windfall tax, >97% prime mature age trees, cheap valuation, this is counter with multiple catalyst, the only risk is management if they dun give out more dividends, but based on FY23 and 24, i think so far doesnt seem likely

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Jtiasa Dividend :

2020 : No Dividend …. Net Loss Rm 73.5 million

2021 : No Dividend ..Net Profit RM 31.4 million ( why no Dividend with Dividend policy minimum 20 % ?)


2022 : DY 4.83

2023 : DY 4.51

2024 . DY 5.41

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo Mike-tikus know how to read below cash flow?
RM ’000
Current year-to-date 30 Jun 2024
Corresponding year-to-date 30 Jun 2023
Net cash generated from operating activities 360,029 297,188
Net cash used in investing activities (114,828) (44,406)
Net cash generated from/(used in) financing activities (195,301) (287,106)
Effect of exchange rate changes 18 184
Cash & cash equivalents at beginning of financial period 194,204 228,344
Cash & cash equivalents at end of financial period 244,122 194,204

Posted by Sslee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The best time to invest is when company almost clear the debts and start paying dividend.

For jaks that can only happen in year 2030. Mike-tikus need to work harder to promote jaks till year 2030 meanwhile I enjoining my dividend from Jayatiasa.

Posted by hng33 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

常成控股（JTIASA，4383，主板种植股）的日线图，在10月11日闭市时报收1.18令吉，按日涨4.0仙或3.51%。股价开始出现买气，进入上升趋势周期，出现旗帜型态的突破。日线相对强度指数（RSI）处于68.32水平。股价或在短期继续上探1.28至1.32令吉的阻力水平，支撑位置处于1.11至1.14令吉。

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/nanyang_stock_expert/2024-10-12-story-h471094268

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha since KonLee promoted Jtiasa in Jaks :

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Jaks : repayment on Vietnam Power Plant Loans

Haha illustration on :

Vietnam JV Power Plant RM 8.7 billion: 25 % equity, 75% Loans .

Jaks 30 % , CPECC 70 %:

8.7 billion x 0.75 x 0.3 = 1.96 billion.

1.96 billion loans ( excluded interest) to be repaid in 10 years , starting 2021 :

Each year repaid loan amount = 0.196 billion

2021 to 2023 , 3 years = 0.588 billion

> 1.96 billion- 0.588 billion = 1.37 billion

>> Investment in Joint Venture as on June 2024 = 0.94 billion


👉Observation 1 : Non current asset of Investment in Joint Venture 0.94 billion as FCF Growth to be prepared for big projects and served as some kind of security ( on loans although CPECC did the financing ) as Vietnam Power Plant is with BOT 25 years.


👉👉Observation 2 : Vietnam associate company JHDP had been paying Dividend from yearly is changed to Half year:

2022 : Dividend RM 70 million
2023 : Dividend RM 27.4 million
June 2024 : Dividend RM 14.2 million


👉👉 👉Observation 3 : year 2025 shl be Jaks year .


>>>

Shareholders agreement (SHA)
* Shareholders agreement dated 6 July 2015 entered between JPH, CPECC and JPP to regulate their proposed relationship as shareholders of JPP as well as certain matters relating to the management of JPP and also to govern their relationship in respect of matters related to JHDP.


* JHDP Board of directors, 3 from JPH and 2 from CPECC. However,👉 3 years after COD, 2 from JPH and 3 from CPECC. ( January 2021 to February 2024 ) .


* JPP Board of directors, 2 from JPH and 3 from CPECC.


> JAKS RESOURCES(Jaks)在2011年争取的越南海阳燃煤电厂项目在经过了6年的风雨终于开工建设了。由于项目总投资达18.685亿美元，JAKS无法找到任何银行资助该项目，所以电厂的建设推迟了好几次，期间更换了2个中国伙伴。直到于2015年7月Jaks与中国电力工程顾问集团有限公司(CPECC)达至协议。Jaks让出项目控制权从以往60:40改为30:70的股权合资开发此工程。CPECC负责融资及全部工程建设。CPECC在进行发电和输变电厂的工程非常有经验。参与了约90％的中国煤电工程。共完成了49,000兆瓦燃煤厂工程。

👉 Jaks partner with CPECC again on tendering LSS5 2000 MW EPCC RM 7.2 billion:

Jaks 51 % : CPECC 49 % tendered 200 MW ( with intention to tender up to limit 500 MW).

Land : 1730 acres in Terengganu to be leased from TDM with rental RM 578 per acre per year ( up to 500 MW) .

👉👉Tender award is scheduled to be announced on November 2024 .

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Even though this counter is good, i dun go all in, i have a significant position in my portfolio, i think its the 2nd largest allocation at 17-18%, but i dun put all into this counter no matter how good it is, cos nothing is 100% certain in stock market, as for JAKS, i didnt really study much but if an investment is too complicated, i tend to stay away, i only invest in what i understand, JAKS cud rally more than jtiasa, but i dun understand and wont touch it, cos no1 rule is dun lose money, and u can easily lose money if u invest in something u dun understand, mike im not bashing u, u cud b right about JAKS, i just dun understand and imo dun think its a good investment for now

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Haha as said earlier my investment portfolio divided into 2 categories:

1.) Calculated Risk Stock

2.) Growth n Dividend Stock : pls refer to ethical Sifu 3iii ( I learned from his posts during debated together against Callvin in Netx for 15 months ) .

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@value_invest its ur money, its up to u how u invest it, just b careful bro since u went almost all in, i wish u the best, at least dun lose money haha, we'll see, im looking forward to the AR at end of Oct / early Nov, i wan see if cold eyes got add more shares