No surprise if Indonesia government announce to implement B45 and B50 in 2026 & 2027 respectively as long as incentive is available for replacing imported fossil diesel.
Extracted : The new tests come after the government announced plans to replace all of its fossil diesel imports with locally produced biodiesel as it aims to cut $20 billion off the country’s fuel bill and support production of domestically produced goods.
Malaysia’s Palm Oil Council expressed confidence that European rules banning imports linked to deforestation will be suspended, after the European Commission’s proposal for a one-year delay
Disclosure On Quarterly Production JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD Production figures for current quarter and year to date Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 69,463.00 70,529.00 -2.00 158,474.00 150,776.00 5.00
Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 June 2024 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 69,463.00 47,293.00 47.00
24'Q3 CPO Production is almost as 23'Q4 But Average price is ~7% stronger than 23'Q4 23'Q4 company get RM134million FCF So coming qtr announcement should be ~145million
HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BERHAD Production figures for current quarter and year to date Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 40,008.00 36,627.00 9.23 106,363.00 106,727.00 -0.34
Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 June 2024 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 40,008.00 32,099.00 24.64
RM ’000 Current year-to-date 30 Jun 2024 Corresponding year-to-date 30 Jun 2023 Net cash generated from operating activities 360,029 297,188 Net cash used in investing activities (114,828) (44,406) Net cash generated from/(used in) financing activities (195,301) (287,106) Effect of exchange rate changes 18 184 Cash & cash equivalents at beginning of financial period 194,204 228,344 Cash & cash equivalents at end of financial period 244,122 194,204
After paying off the borrowing jayatiasa should have more FCF to pay good dividend
Jtiasa is now a net cash company. Currently they have zero immature oil palm tree and less than 5% of the oil palm tree is beyond 20 years, which means the capex on replanting will be minimum for next 5 years. So 350mil of fcf every year is definitely possible! Even if they spend only half of it to pay dividen, the dividen yield still can sky rocket to 175 / 1139 = 15% at today's closing price!
Now they have 283mil of cash and 194mil of total debt, which also means 88mil net cash, with extra 350mil of fcf every year! Oh man, do u guys have any idea how big is the potential of this cash cow?
The most important to derive up share price is EPS growth. JAYA TIASA CPO production for Q ended Sept is massively increase 47% to 69.4kMT vs. 47.3KMT recorded in perceding Q ended June 2024.
These massive incremental in CPO production volume + elevated CPO above RM 4000 Mt will allow JTIASA to record multiple higher EPS in next Q result
Expect EPS to deliver above 7 sen in next Q result. Aside increase CPO volume production and evelated CPO RM 4000, Lower price of fertiliser and strength in RM will lower import fertiliser cost will further boost up JTIASA profit margin next Q result
JTIASA profit margin is high dependent not only on CPO price, but also on production volume. Therefore, JTIASA monthly and quarterly disclosure on CPO production volume is very important on top of average daily CPO price, both factors need to in line to e ensure QoQ EPS growth.
Take example, another palm stock, TSH, it's monthly and quarterly CPO production volume was significant decrease QoQ, therefore, despite evelated CPO price, TSH upcoming EPS may report decrease earning QoQ.
Palm tree have seasonal production, under normal circumstances, palm tree have higher production in 2H, lower in 1H. Therefore, higher EPS in 2H need to average down lower EPS in 1H in order to average annual EPS. CPO price also is important factor, but it's beyond control due to fluctuations in global demand, tax barrier, competitor oil etc.
MY estimation EPS 7sen in upcoming Q is to be in line with corresponding last year EPS which coinincidently have about similar CPO production volume and average CPO with +/- factor like strength in RM currency and lower fertiliser price offset by higher labour cost etc. JTIASA also have advantage over cost disel which continue under subsidy for East Msia
Disclosure On Quarterly Production TSH RESOURCES BERHAD Production figures for current quarter and year to date Individual Quarter (quarter) Cumulative Period Current Year Quarter Preceding Year Corresponding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) Current Year To - Date Preceding Year Corresponding Period Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 30 September 2024 30 September 2023 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 46,322.00 67,148.00 -31.02 147,979.00 174,461.00 -15.18
Production figures for current quarter compared with immediate preceding quarter Current Quarter Immediate Preceding Quarter Changes (Amount / %) 30 September 2024 30 June 2024 PLANTATION Crude Palm Oil (MT) 46,322.00 51,801.00 -10.58
> From 2019 to 2021 FFB output is reduced by 54 % … 2023 is reduced by 15.4 % ..
Hoho No wander the 2nd Major ( 14 % ) keep disposed shares from August 2023 to July 2024 ( balance 6 % ) , during Price is Uptrend.
>> Coincidentally FFB July- September 2024 Output is started reducing.
KonLee promoted with linking to the 52w high RM 1.53 is Trapped High ke same as in SCIB with TP RM 2.00 by early 2025 ( even the Major over 20 % is on Force Sell ) !!!😱
1.) Debt is reduced until Net Cash . 2.) Earlier Top 3 n Top 4 ( 2 companies) keep disposed shares during Uptrend. 3.) after 2 years , CFO n Group MD are resigned on 1/9/2024 .
This counter thesis initially was pure dividend play, and its all about FCF, DPS went from 3.2 to 6, while on the surface the profits went down yoy, its mainly cos of non cash items (impairment of timber division) and with management paying down debt agressively, even if production numbers stay static, the financing cost will go down and with debt repayment completed, the dividends cud easily 2x or 3x, add on potential revision of windfall tax, >97% prime mature age trees, cheap valuation, this is counter with multiple catalyst, the only risk is management if they dun give out more dividends, but based on FY23 and 24, i think so far doesnt seem likely
Aiyoyo Mike-tikus know how to read below cash flow? RM ’000 Current year-to-date 30 Jun 2024 Corresponding year-to-date 30 Jun 2023 Net cash generated from operating activities 360,029 297,188 Net cash used in investing activities (114,828) (44,406) Net cash generated from/(used in) financing activities (195,301) (287,106) Effect of exchange rate changes 18 184 Cash & cash equivalents at beginning of financial period 194,204 228,344 Cash & cash equivalents at end of financial period 244,122 194,204
The best time to invest is when company almost clear the debts and start paying dividend.
For jaks that can only happen in year 2030. Mike-tikus need to work harder to promote jaks till year 2030 meanwhile I enjoining my dividend from Jayatiasa.
1.96 billion loans ( excluded interest) to be repaid in 10 years , starting 2021 :
Each year repaid loan amount = 0.196 billion
2021 to 2023 , 3 years = 0.588 billion
> 1.96 billion- 0.588 billion = 1.37 billion
>> Investment in Joint Venture as on June 2024 = 0.94 billion
👉Observation 1 : Non current asset of Investment in Joint Venture 0.94 billion as FCF Growth to be prepared for big projects and served as some kind of security ( on loans although CPECC did the financing ) as Vietnam Power Plant is with BOT 25 years.
👉👉Observation 2 : Vietnam associate company JHDP had been paying Dividend from yearly is changed to Half year:
2022 : Dividend RM 70 million 2023 : Dividend RM 27.4 million June 2024 : Dividend RM 14.2 million
👉👉 👉Observation 3 : year 2025 shl be Jaks year .
>>>
Shareholders agreement (SHA) * Shareholders agreement dated 6 July 2015 entered between JPH, CPECC and JPP to regulate their proposed relationship as shareholders of JPP as well as certain matters relating to the management of JPP and also to govern their relationship in respect of matters related to JHDP.
* JHDP Board of directors, 3 from JPH and 2 from CPECC. However,👉 3 years after COD, 2 from JPH and 3 from CPECC. ( January 2021 to February 2024 ) .
* JPP Board of directors, 2 from JPH and 3 from CPECC.
Even though this counter is good, i dun go all in, i have a significant position in my portfolio, i think its the 2nd largest allocation at 17-18%, but i dun put all into this counter no matter how good it is, cos nothing is 100% certain in stock market, as for JAKS, i didnt really study much but if an investment is too complicated, i tend to stay away, i only invest in what i understand, JAKS cud rally more than jtiasa, but i dun understand and wont touch it, cos no1 rule is dun lose money, and u can easily lose money if u invest in something u dun understand, mike im not bashing u, u cud b right about JAKS, i just dun understand and imo dun think its a good investment for now
Haha as said earlier my investment portfolio divided into 2 categories:
1.) Calculated Risk Stock
2.) Growth n Dividend Stock : pls refer to ethical Sifu 3iii ( I learned from his posts during debated together against Callvin in Netx for 15 months ) .
@value_invest its ur money, its up to u how u invest it, just b careful bro since u went almost all in, i wish u the best, at least dun lose money haha, we'll see, im looking forward to the AR at end of Oct / early Nov, i wan see if cold eyes got add more shares
Haha so far so Good in 1.) Calculated Risk Stock :
1.) Zelan ( bet with Stockraider n Callvin in Netx on 2020 ) … cutwin on 2021 together with MMC ( Zelan mother ) on 2021 , during MMC privatisation news .
2.) Capital A : thanks to sslleee my bright candle light .. my balance 40 % Free Tickets with cost RM 0.58 ..
Haha Jaks currently a Calculated Risk Stock is turn around to be a potential Growth stock , why ? :
A) Jaks CEO ( the only substantial shareholder from 9.9 % ( 2017 ) to 14 % ( 2023 ) , after Uncle K intention to take over with 30 % on 2017/2018 , is failed ) had successfully steered the company diversified into Power industry: Vietnam Joint Venture Power Plant 1200 MW with CPECC , EPCC value RM 8.7 Billion… construction is started on October 2016 , fully Commercial Operating Date on January 2021 with 25 years concession:
As an 30 % associate joint venture company contributing share of profit n Dividend to Jaks since 2021 :
Jaks Annual Revenue and Net Profit / ( Loss ) :
1.) FYE2020 : RM 259.4 million with Loss ( RM 80.5 Million. )
2.) FYE2021 : RM 109.7 million with Net Profit RM 51.9 million.
3.) FYE 2022 : RM 89.8 million with Net Profit RM 53.5 million.
4.) FYE 2023 : Rm 37.787 million with Net Profit RM 15.527 million..
5.) FYE 2024 :
>> 👉1QR : RM 14.2 million with Net Profit RM 12.4 million.
>> 👉2QR : RM 13.1 million with Net Profit RM 8.4 million.
B ) LSS4 50MW Solar Project in Penang is COD on August 2023 with 25 years TNB PPA ( increased from 21 years ).
1.) QR ended September 2023 :
Revenue : 3.3 Million , Loss ( RM 1.4 Million)
2.) QR ended December 2023 :
Revenue: 4.3 Million , Loss ( 0.4 Million )
3.) QR ended March 2024 :
👉Revenue: 5.3 Million , Profit RM 0.96 Million … 18%
C.) CGPP 30MW Solar project is awarded on August 2023 to Jaks consortium with 2 partners ( Jaks holding 51 % ) …COD is scheduled by 4Q 2025 . Jaks Shl be benefited on the EPC contract also .
CGPP winners can sell RE electricity directly to end user / customer, but thru TNB power grid as TPA ( Third Party Access ) . CRESS details is expected to be announced in September 2024 , but the Mulling charges is announced oredi on 22/8/2024 .
800 MW CGPP winners even can sell RE electricity cross border.
D.) LSS5 2000MW Solar Project, EPCC value is estimated RM 7.2 Billion, tender RFP dateline is brought forward to 25/7/2024 from December 2024 ):
Jaks partner again with CPECC ( Vietnam 1200 MW Power Plant partner 70 % ) >>> Jaks 51% : CPECC 49% , tendered 200MW ….. Land : 1730 acres in Terengganu is leased from TDM .
Haha that’s why TNB committed RM90 billion for six years until 2030 .
—-
PublicInvest upgrades TNB to 'outperform', expects capex to increase by RM1b to RM2b yearly to meet data centre power demand By Isabelle Francis / theedgemalaysia
19 Jul 2024, 11:15 am
KUALA LUMPUR (July 19): Tenaga Nasional Bhd (KL:TENAGA) or TNB is expected to keep increasing its capital expenditure (capex) beyond 2030, with an additional RM1 billion to RM2 billion a year, to maintain its power grid infrastructure, which recently hit new peak demand due to data centres, said PublicInvest Research.
The additional capex is on top of TNB’s committed RM90 billion for six years until 2030, to support energy transition initiatives and system upgrades.
“However, we expect capex remain elevated beyond 2030, with additional RM1 billion to RM2 billion a year to upkeep its standard as Asean Power Grid flagship infrastructure.
Aiyoyo Mike-tikus until now still do not know jaks operating cash flow is negative and need PP for working capital and loans repayment.
Dec-2023 31-Dec-2022 RM'000 RM'000 Net Operating Cash Flow (19,463) (80,946) Net Investing Cash Flow (2,430) (73,445) Net Financing Cash Flow 14,090 103,574 Cash & Cash Equivalents at end of the period. 23,748 29,719
Long Term Borrowings 428,741 432,932 Bank borrowings 60,040 57,862 Bank overdraft 6,037 10,935
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Up_down
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Posted by Up_down > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
No surprise if Indonesia government announce to implement B45 and B50 in 2026 & 2027 respectively as long as incentive is available for replacing imported fossil diesel.
Extracted :
The new tests come after the government announced plans to replace all of its fossil diesel imports with locally produced biodiesel as it aims to cut $20 billion off the country’s fuel bill and support production of domestically produced goods.
https://www.astra-agro.co.id/en/2024/05/22/indonesia-starts-test-trial-of-b40-blends-in-generators-and-trucks/