hmmm..... which is better to add ytl or ytlp ?? One is diversified and the other is NOT.... one is trading at T4Q PER of 19.92x while the other at 12.26x..... one has construction upside (HSR) while the other has DC/utility upside anything else???
@Agji, yes the placement of MCement shares by YTL has been completed at a price close to RM5.00. YTL should be able to recognise a disposal gain in the upcoming Q4 FY2024.
Foreign funds are buying MCement. Analysts are getting more upbeat with Wessex Waters turning around soon and YTL Power prospects. Visa-free tourists pouring into Malaysia will help to spur ahead YTL's hotel and shopping mall businesses in Malaysia and Singapore.
All are positive factors that push up YTL share.
Not to mention is the impending revival of KL_Singapore HSR.
Did you all miss this article? https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717736 CCCC to share ECRL's operational risks with MRL The main contractor of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), China Communications Construction Company Ltd (CCCC), is going to bear the operational risks of the rail together with its asset owner, Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd (MRL). MRL and CCCC will each bear 50% of the risk in this joint venture company or operating company (OpCo) if the rail operates at a loss. If the operation proves profitable, MRL will receive 80% of the earnings while CCCC will get the remaining 20%. If they can do it with ECRL, there is no reason why they cannot do it with the HSR. Probably they are still ironing out the deal. Hope they will announce something soonest. Taking too long already!
YTL is being dragged down by YTL Power which is under selling pressure after Ofwat, the water sector regulator in the UK yesterday announced a draft determination which will give lower rate of returns to the water companies for the next 5 regulatory years from 2026-2030.
The rate of returns was set at 3.72% in this second draft determination, a rise from the earlier 3.1% in the first draft determination in November 2023. Hopefully they will further raise it to above 4.0% in the final determination in December 2024.
@cwc1982, correct, who wants to forever run a loss making business.
Ofwat will learn the lesson when it puts another water company into bankruptcy after Thames Water. I suspect the draft determination was somewhat affected by some political factors as UK just had its general election weeks ago, and the draft determination was delayed by one month because of the election.
From now till the final determination in Dec 2024, there is time for water companies and their financers to work on Ofwat to ask for higher water tariffs. The current allowed rate of returns cannot sustain the ongoing business of most of the water companies in the UK. For now, it is just a temporary setback.
The earnings of YTL for Q4 FY2024 should be good, but I am not sure if it will declare a final dividend of 9.5 sen as indicated by Tan Sri Francis last year. I hope it will.
Even if it declares a lower dividend than 9.5 sen, I won't bother much and will hold onto YTL shares as I know the company preserving cash is for future projects. A lower dividend may mean a big project coming its way to YTL soon.
Hi @dragon328. Yes is undeniable ytls has great prospect but is seems investor is not taking this into consideration looking at the share price movement since the 3rd quarter result in end of May
Most of the investors are short term in nature, even many foreign funds are just hot money coming in and out within 6 months. No doubt YTL announced a weak set of results for Q3 FY2024, it was mainly due to lower earnings contribution from YTL Power / PowerSeraya.
As PowerSeraya is rebounding well from the temporary slump in Jan-Feb 2024, YTL Power will announce a stronger set of earnings in the upcoming Q4 FY2024, which will benefit YTL.
YTL will continue to benefit from strong earnings of MCement in coming quarters due to elevated cement selling price and impending HSR revival prospects.
Furthermore, the influx of foreign tourists into Malaysia due to visa-free travelling from China and India will benefit YTL's hotels and shopping malls in Malaysia and Singapore.
YTL share price dropped to a low of RM3.30 after Q3 result announcement in end May, but has since quickly rebounded to above RM3.70 last week. That shows it has good support from longer term investment funds and investors when short term traders and funds took profit. We cannot judge a stock performance merely from few weeks of stock price movements. As long as fundamentals remain attractive, this stock is a long term Buy.
As mentioned before, the sell down of YTL shares in past 2 days was triggered by the draft determination by Ofwat for Wessex Waters' next 5 year business plan, which in turn caused a selldown in YTL Power shares.
As it is just another draft determination of Ofwat, it does not have any immediate impact on Wessex's operations. I am confident that Wessex management will work hard to engage Ofwat in the next few weeks to deliberate on the merits of its submitted business plan and justify for a higher rate of return on capital. I think the final determination in Dec 2024 will typically improve from the drafts.
Hence, I find the selldown in YTL Power and YTL shares in these 2 days is unfounded and unnecessary. I see the current weakness in YTL share price as a good opportunity to accumulate more for long term investment holds.
Foreign funds started selling IJM yesterday in a big way after buying in past few weeks when local analysts also helped to come out with good reports on construction stocks like IJM and Gamuda. To me, these pure construction stocks are getting over-valued now with PER of over 20x, but local analysts are upgrading them to 25x prospective PER.
Stock valuation in the long run will eventually fall back to earnings and fundamentals. YTL is a lot cheaper at less than 15x PER with improving earnings prospects from YTL Power (Wessex turning around, PowerSeraya's continued strong earnings, AI data centre starts contributing next year etc.), MCement (strong earnings to sustain from mega construction work like Penang LRT, KL-Singapore HSR, data centres construction work etc.) and hotels business (from influx of foreign tourists to Malaysia and Singapore on visa-free travelling from China and India, strong surges in tourists to Japan due to weak yen etc.).
@cwc1981, YTL and YTL Power share price is down temporarily due to some foreign funds selling. These foreign funds tend to be hot money which comes in and out within 6-9 months typically.
Foreign funds started buying YTL and YTL Power in a big way in Dec 2023 up until early May 2024. After YTL Power announced a weak set of quarterly result for March 2024 in late May, these "hot money" found the excuse to take profit on YTL and YTL Power which both have given them 100% gain in 6 months. To these "hot money", a 100% gain in 6 months is good enough coz they bought in big quantities. They bought in total some RM950 million in YTL Power shares and RM850 million worth of YTL shares from Dec 23 to May 24, so a 100% gain will have given them good profit of RM400-500 million each from YTL and YTL Power.
It is no surprise for these "hot money" to take profit and exit the stocks, but the good thing is that most of the selling pressure from these hot money funds has been well adsorbed by local institutional funds as well as local retailers in past few weeks, hence the share price is only down like 10% from their peak prices.
The reason why local institutional funds are coming in to buy YTL and YTL Power is that they are finally convinced that the earnings outlook for both companies is so bright that they cannot simply ignore, as both stocks have become stocks with almost the largest market cap in Bursa, with YTL Power in top 10 list.
Local funds like EPF cannot ignore the fact that YTL and YTL Power have become the leader in respective areas of expertise, i.e. YTL Power is the pioneer in data centre and AI data centre in collaboration with Nvidia, one of the largest companies in the world, and is the owner of the 2nd largest power company in Singapore and owner of Wessex Waters, one of the 10 water companies in the UK; while YTL owns a majority stake in YTL Power and MCement, the largest cement player in Malaysia, and the owner of Niseko village, the largest land owner and ski resorts owner in Hokkaido Japan, and the three renowned Marriotte Hotels in Australia.
These local funds know that by buying YTL and YTL Power, they will have good and direct exposure to the booming AI and data centres in Malaysia, benefits of the strength in Singapore dollars, the turn around of Wessex and exposure to the UK utility and property sectors, the booming tourism sector in Australia and Japan.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
raymondroy
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Posted by raymondroy > 1 week ago | Report Abuse
hmmm..... which is better to add ytl or ytlp ??
One is diversified and the other is NOT....
one is trading at T4Q PER of 19.92x while the other at 12.26x.....
one has construction upside (HSR) while the other has DC/utility upside
anything else???