Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-17 20:03 | Report Abuse

17aug 597,800
14 Aug 2015 453,600
12 Aug 2015 606,100
10 Aug 2015 679,400

continue buy tomorrow ksl company

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-17 23:14 | Report Abuse

ggg123. Matrix is selling at PE of 6.72 based on today's closing price of 2.22. At PE of 6.72, KSL should sell at 1.74. But KSL has very much undervalued land plus recurring net profit before tax of at least RM80 million/yr - 0ne third of total net profit. Besides Matrix suffered only one extreme sell-down (December 2014) before the current sell-down. Matrix recurring income from an international school and club house is nowhere near to KSL's recurring income!

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-18 09:03 | Report Abuse

ksl no movement?weird

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 09:04 | Report Abuse

The main reason matrix benefit from the stability you just highlighted is because of its track record in delivering growth, hence fueling investor confidence. KSL does not benefit from that, remember how there was a massive sell off after they missed their profit? And you can't use fy14 for matrix PE, which is currently 4.7x (ttm), because they already surpassed substantially more than half of last year profit, with almost certain probability to outperform, also check out amount of new sales which is also very high and would last for next two years.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 09:04 | Report Abuse

Comparison with Matrix only shows that KSL's price was artificially sold down (4 extreme sell-downs and current down-trend started in March 2014). Since March 2015 i.e. the current down-trend, KSL have 4 smaller sell-downs before the current sell-down due to the falling ringgit. In contrast, Matrix, after the Dec 2014 sell-down (which affected almost all KLSE counters due to Anwar's alarmist remarks on the economy) rose to its all-time high of 2.81 on 21/5/2015. Since then it has 2 smaller sell-downs before its current sell-down starting on 28/7/2015 due to the falling ringgit. It's closing price yesterday was 2.21 as compared to KSL's 1.42. Matrix is not as strong as KSL in terms of fundamentals. So where is the justification for the thrashing of KSL's price if not for the wolves and KSL's insiders. I am minded to try to send those rascals to jail. The evidence is in the KLSE's trading records!

Posted by yfchong > 2015-08-18 09:14 | Report Abuse

come let's go................,until the dusts settle.. but bit bit then lock in safe deposits box.,

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 09:16 | Report Abuse

The sell down started since Kenanga revised TP when they missed profit forecast last year. The perception on trust and confidence is very important to a stock. KSL will rise if there are two things: (i) value buying by new entrants, & (ii) meet analysts concensus. For now even Matrix at a value-buy (cheaper than KSL PE) is sliding due to market sentiment, I see no reason for KSL to rise.

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-18 09:40 | Report Abuse

TWO OF YOU DON ARGUE LA… WE ARE INVESTOR, WE JUST WANNA EARN SOME POCKET MONEY… AND THIS IS KSL FORUM… DON ARGUE… WE JUST INVEST WHICH COUNTER WE WANT… PEACE OK ...

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 09:55 | Report Abuse

ggg123, KSL is cheaper than Matrix's PE (KSL's 5.46 as compared with Matrix 6.72 based on yesterday's closing prices)! Even their NP margins are comparable even after deducting KSL's RM88 million fair value adjustment (KSL's 31.7% and Matrix's 30.6%)! Kenanga's analysis was last year! The last quarter results (2015 Q1) of KSL at net operating profit of RM82.4 million beats forecast, the previous quarter (2014 Q4) and the corresponding quarter (2014 Q1 after deducting non-operating income of RM88 million fair value adjustment). Yet the share crashed almost immediately. Matirx share price rose instead! Where is the justification for this except for the wolves. And the wolves cannot raid so frequently and bold without the connivance of KSL's insiders.

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-18 10:13 | Report Abuse

KSL GIVE 40% POLICY WITH DRP INVESTMENT WITH LOW PRICE... FOR LONG TERM.. IS GOOD

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 10:18 | Report Abuse

I don't know where you refer, but Matrix PE (ttm) is 4.9x based on yesterday closing price of RM2.22, and 4.8x as of now RM2.20. Dividend of 6.8% based on FY2014, with a 40% payout policy. Right now they are paying 20+% only for the first half of the year, that means next two quarters dividend payout will be much higher as this year is best ever profit.

Not trying to promote Matrix, but it is a darling in the market, and if it is going down, and its peers are also going down, why KSL up? Just trying to add another perspective to the discussion.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 10:24 | Report Abuse

ggg123. I compare like with like - Matrix's 2014 results with KSL's 2014 results. Go to Bursa's announcement for the quarterly results. I have even taken out Matrix's bonus 1 for 6 share issue. Even after this, Matrix's PE is only 5.75..still more expensive than KSL's 5.46.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 10:25 | Report Abuse

But I would say: accumulate KSL now. It will recover..it cannot fall much lower.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 10:46 | Report Abuse

How do you calculate?

Based on PE (ttm), Matrix 4.9x, KSL 5.1x (less fair value gain of 88m).

One with certainty of outperforming this year, one still uncertain.

Also, KSL property sales missed expectations in Q1. Investor also buy on sentiment. What is the sentiment on the whole property market and Johor right now?

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 10:52 | Report Abuse

ggg123. Point noted. I stand by my figures based on Bursa's announcement. As to how I calculate: I divide the NP by the number of shares to get earnings per share and then divide the last closing share price by the earnings per share.

Posted by Jc > 2015-08-18 10:59 | Report Abuse

Vey healthy debate, sharing and useful tips provided for small time investors like me. Keep it up!

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 11:12 | Report Abuse

upsidedown119: Most analysts would use Bloomberg terminal. So easy way, and also to be consistent, is to take the Market Cap from Bloomberg website and divide by the company's NP for last 4 reported quarters.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 11:21 | Report Abuse

Better to get figures directly from Bursa.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 11:22 | Report Abuse

NP from Bursa, Market Cap from Bloomberg.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 12:07 | Report Abuse

Also the latest NTA available from both KSL and Matrix (31/3/2014) shows KSL's as RM2.03 and Matrix's 1.45. Both companies have been making profits since then, KSL more than Matrix in terms of earnings per share. But the difference is KSL's NTA is 40% higher than Matrix. And KSL's land and properties are very much undervalued - at a magnitude of at least 2 to 5 times! That's why KSL's retail shareholders were willing to enter and hold at high price especially after bonus and DRP was declared last year. The wolves and KSL's insiders knew this, hence the repeated raids!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 12:10 | Report Abuse

My Market Cap is also from Bursa.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 12:14 | Report Abuse

upsidedown119: Firstly, P/NTA is not a contributing factor for stock performance, in fact it is frequently a lagging indicator on how well the market likes and values the stock. Profitability + confidence is the main factor. As you can clearly see how P/NTA continued to decline for KSL.

Secondly, based on latest quarterly announcements, Matrix at RM1.67, and KSL at 1.93, not as far off as you have mentioned.

And yes, KSL owns more land than Matrix, but as mentioned, profitability, future sale, track record, and investor confidence are key. Location too.

Also, if you know the history of Matrix, they don't own the land of their main township, the state government owns it. That means very low holding cost.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 12:36 | Report Abuse

upsidedown199, let's get the calculations straight:

KSL net profit (m)

1Q 2015: 82.5
4Q 2014: 43.8 (after audit and fair value adj.)
3Q 2014: 70.1
2Q 2014: 79.2
= 275.6

Market Cap @ RM1.40 @ 17/8/15 = 1392.7

PE (ttm) = 5.1 x

Matrix net profit (m)

2Q 2015: 29.9
1Q 2015: 115.4
4Q 2014: 56.2 (adj.)
3Q 2014: 45.1
= 246.6

Market Cap @ RM2.22 @ 17/8/15 = 1220.6

PE (ttm) = 4.9x

At this point, while Matrix is slightly cheaper, both valuation are very similar to each other. We can also probably say that KSL had to be discounted to match market sentiment and become closer to Matrix. Not only that, you can see other counter with good track record, like Tambun, also at this price level.

Posted by Leechongmeng > 2015-08-18 13:21 | Report Abuse

ggg sure got grudge against KSL. Either he is invested in KSL or invested in Matrix and not happy to see people buy KSL. He can promote at Matrix but come here promote.

Posted by Leechongmeng > 2015-08-18 13:22 | Report Abuse

He is trying very hard to let ppl know Matrix is the best property counter. Keke

Posted by HellowKiety > 2015-08-18 13:34 | Report Abuse

So is it a good buy? averaging down maybe

Posted by HellowKiety > 2015-08-18 13:34 | Report Abuse

ggg is it a good buy??

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 14:00 | Report Abuse

Lee: Is there no comparison needed in stock investing?

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 14:01 | Report Abuse

Yes hellowkiety, it is a good buy. If you have holding power, can keep. I will wait for lower, or at least some sign of Malaysia market stability.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 15:15 | Report Abuse

ggg123. You are comparing different set of 4 quarters. Correct is to compare the like for like. E.g. Financial Y/E 31/12/2014 or YOY ending 31/3/2015. If YOY ending 31/3/2015, Matrix would have improved PE because of the spike in NP to RM115.4 million for Q1 2015. But this is not sustained as can be seen in the sharp drop in NP to RM29.9 million in Q2 2015. Quarterly results can be manipulated from quarter to quarter to influence the share price since they are not audited. Correct approach is to compare financial year with financial year for two companies even though they may have different financial year ends. Matrix and KSL have the same financial Y/E. If compare financial year with financial year, my figures from Bursa and calculation would be correct.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 15:16 | Report Abuse

BTW, if KSL share sells at the same ratio to book NTA as Matrix, its price would be RM3.10. There is no reason why it shouldn't and be even better than Matrix...except for the wolves which conducted many sell-downs with impunity with the very likely connivance of KSL's insiders. KSL's management is armed with buy back authority. The should push the share price to at least RM2; to RM2.50 with better market sentiments to better reflect KSL's fair value. Matrix was spared the raids of the wolves!

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 15:36 | Report Abuse

upsidedown119, sustainability is a non-issue in this case because we are using TTM. As guided by mgt in analyst report the quarter spike is due to pre-gst completion (brought forward), and guided that next quarter profit will be lower, and all analysts are saying they on track to meet profit. This is also verifiable as normal and sustainable with their increasing property sales. Using FY2014 is old news, why would you want to do that when you have latest performance. The least you can say is wait for KSL to have 2Q results to have clearer picture from Johor sentiment, but not revert to old news. Investors want to see current performance, not old news, that's why you see Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo, S&P etc. all analyst reports are using PE and EPS (ttm) and also forward PE.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 15:40 | Report Abuse

As I mentioned KSL is setback by a confidence issue. Firstly, they did not meet profit forecast. After that, they did not meet sales forecast. Then came Johor oversupply sentiment, then property market slowdown due to GST sentiment, then here comes major uncertainty in Malaysia equities market and potential capital control. What do you expect investors to do?

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 15:49 | Report Abuse

ggg123. Yeah? You depend on analyst forecast of future profits? Almost anyone's 'educated' fart about the future is just as accurate. FY2014 is the complete year for comparison. Comprison based on different YOY is never done by professionals. As I've said, the latest quarterly performance can be manipulated since they are not subject to audit. Full FY figures' better since they are reflected in the audited accounts. Maybe you are right and we should wait for KSL's Q2 results (although I disagree). But for strict comparison and FY2014 is not too out-dated yet, my point is KSL is far better than matrix but for the wolves and rascally KSL insiders!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 15:58 | Report Abuse

BTW, I can extrapolate both companies' PE forward to 31 March 2015 for comparison YOY but my gut feel is, that is a waste of time as PE by quarter fluctuates since it is dependent on the manipulated and unaudited quarterly NP (e.g. KSL's Q4 2014 and Matrix Q1 2015 NP). The comparison based on FY2014 is more valid.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 16:11 | Report Abuse

If you didn't know, analyst forecast are frequently based on some 'guidance' and 'hint' from mgt, bordering on grey area of legal public dissemination. So far, if you check the reports dating back to listing, Matrix has consistently met public/analyst expectations, which represent the broader market perception, that's why they benefit from a premium (investor confidence) for their transparency and ability to deliver results. If you read through the comments in this blog since the first sell off, you can see a clear storyline and explanations on what happened to KSL.

You can view last year's figures, but they are too outdated. If you insist on using old news, then for property counters, you need to tally with the latest sales to be able to have an insight into upcoming profitability. To verify what I have mentioned, you can check back FY2013 sales reported and roughly tally back with the profit for FY2014 actual performance. Similarly, FY2014 sales will determine FY2015 profit. You can see this in the analyst reports, where they say 'management guided XXX amount of sales' / or / we are revising down sales' / or 'sales came largely in line with consensus expectations'.

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-18 16:17 | Report Abuse

may i knw two of you working? so free to reply comment =)

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 16:20 | Report Abuse

Managements are the biggest bullsh'ters especially when they speak to analysts. I rather depend on hard data at source i.e. Bursa and not those already digested and excreted by analysts. I am not saying the analysts for Matrix are wrong. That's not the issue here. We are doing a comparison of the two companies. Maybe you are right about 'up-coming future profitability'. But to choose between KSL or Matrix, I will do a comparison.

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 16:34 | Report Abuse

That's where your views are slightly biased. There are companies on Bursa that are highly valued because they are transparent and consistently deliver their promise. Especially during missed forecast, they are the first to inform the analysts and explain to them their next step forward. Matrix is going that way, have been doing that since listing so far, you can see this through the analyst report that always have a second report after the first report, it means mgt spend time to explain their queries.

Well, if you're not keen, you can always check the analyst reports on the sales data. That's as close to predictability as you can get. This is all verifiable by yourself if you don't believe so.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 16:57 | Report Abuse

kenneth89. I am having an off day lah. Besides analysing figures is my delight!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 17:01 | Report Abuse

ggg123. KSL has a confidence issue alright - caused by the wolves! And yes, you are right - KSL's profit do fluctuate quite violently. I wonder why. Can you throw some light?

Posted by yfchong > 2015-08-18 17:02 | Report Abuse

Mr upsidedown119 u very pandai-lah...., analysis data..., sure good-leh.....,any opinion., hehe i am waiting to average down leh..,

Posted by i3i2i1 > 2015-08-18 17:12 | Report Abuse

nice reading, during this turmoil, i reduce my stack on KSL. seems now based on chart, seems limited downside and moving sideways, until it breaks 1.45/1.60.. but i think we must wait until Mr. Think Face removed.. else, I think very hard as USD/RM will be touching 4.2/4.4.. we wait and see who's ass the most painful

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-18 18:24 | Report Abuse

yfchong. Thanks for the compliments, but really my analysis is nothing 'pandai-lah'. Any Joe and Jill can do it with a bit of patience and research.

ggg123. Why do you think KSL's profit from operations had been fluctuating even before GST?

Posted by ggg123 > 2015-08-18 20:10 | Report Abuse

Have not analysed in depth into their quarterly statement. If it is significant enough to draw your attention it is most likely due to launch timing? You want to share more?

Posted by azlan88 > 2015-08-18 20:41 | Report Abuse

Apart from residential housing, Matrix also is also selling industrial land, which is subjected to GST. This is why their Q1 net profit increased sharply, mostly due to pre-GST buying rush.

As for KSL, I believe that their net profit fluctuates due to the same reason, which is industrial land selling. Other property developers that develop only residential housing have more streamlined profit, provided that they have continuous project.

KSL has been conservative in the past, conserving a lot of cash. Thus they will have no problem in funding the KSL Mall Klang, without the need to borrow money.

On the other hand, being a Johor-centric property company is not bad at all. With the depreciating ringgit, more and more singaporeans are buying property in this state, probably through their relatives here.

In the long term, they will prevail.

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-19 09:06 | Report Abuse

ksl forum now so active yaeh

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-19 09:30 | Report Abuse

ggg123, Except for my gut feel that they manipulated their quarterly profits, I am not sure. That's why I asked.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2015-08-19 09:31 | Report Abuse

azlan88. Thank you for your comments which I find helpful.

Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-08-19 09:52 | Report Abuse

THIS COMING QUARTER REPORT U GUY FEEL WILL PROFIT HOW MUCH? NOW HAVE GST…